It’s time for a generational talent, blue chipper

[BillsFanForever19]

6 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Who said that drafting a player who can be elite in two years means that player won’t contribute their rookie season?

 

If you read the posts before that one you'd see the entire discussion hinged on Happy's question of if Jihaad Campbell were to fall to us bc of an 8-9 month recovery window for a Surgery he just had - would you take him?

Edited Sunday at 06:52 PM by BillsFanForever19

[BarleyNY]

23 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

If you read the posts before that one you'd see the entire discussion hinged on Happy's question of if Jihaad Campbell were to fall to us bc of an 8-9 month recovery window for a Surgery he just had - would you take him?

Okay. So this is specific to Campbell and his injury. I’d have to look more closely at him to determine whether I think he would be worth it, but it is certainly worth a discussion. How much do you expect a player picked at 30 to contribute in their rookie year anyway? It’s reasonable to expect some positive contributions, but if you’re looking for a major impact you’re almost certainly going to be disappointed. 

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

Okay. So this is specific to Campbell and his injury. I’d have to look more closely at him to determine whether I think he would be worth it, but it is certainly worth a discussion. How much do you expect a player picked at 30 to contribute in their rookie year anyway? It’s reasonable to expect some positive contributions, but if you’re looking for a major impact you’re almost certainly going to be disappointed. 

 

With the holes we have at positions of need and what's left in Free Agency (not to mention of our cap) - that 1st Pick is going to see significant snaps, if not start. It's been that way with a Rookie dating back to the beginning with this regime, save for Epenesa (who was a late 2nd Round pick) and Elam (who got beat out by Benford).

 

Last year it was Keon Coleman, the year before Dalton Kincaid, in 2022 it was supposed to be Kaiir Elam but ended up being Benford (finding a Benford in the 6th is the exception, not the rule), in 2021 it was Greg Rousseau, in 2019 it was Ed Oliver, in 2018 it was Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds, and in 2017 it was Tre White.

 

A positive contribution is greater than no contribution at all. Especially when the roster is in the shape it's in after a pretty lacking Free Agency.

 

5 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

JJ McCarthy says "Hi".  There is no guarantee that any draft pick is going to play in his rookie season.   

 

Lots of CBs, including Tre White, have gone in bottom third of the first round and played well their entire rookie seasons.   In a draft rich in defensive talent, the Bills can probably find a DLer at #30 or even a 2nd rounder,  who can start playing decently some time in his rookie season, especially since the Bills use a DL rotation.  

 

I think you are making too big a deal of Bills rookies, most of whom are likely to be taken at the end of each round,  making significant contributions.   The Bills are not going to miss the playoffs because the rookies they draft aren't ready to start on Opening Day.   That said, if the Bills were to trade up into the top half of the first round, I would expect that rookie to be good enough to play well as a rookie.

 

There's a major difference between Drafting a player who gets hurt in Training Camp and the Pre-Season and misses his Rookie year like JJ McCarthy and Drafting a guy knowing he's got a long recovery and will miss his Rookie year.

 

That argument you're making that any Rookie we Draft can get injured and miss the season furthers my point. If we're already taking on a guy who won't play with our top pick and one of our other top picks goes down in Training Camp - we're really nowhere this year.

 

My overall point is this roster needs far more help to this point than I was expecting. Outside of upgrading Von Miller to Joey Bosa (who is a risky proposition) and Mack Hollins to Joshua Palmer (who is a 670 yard average WR) - we have nothing to speak for in terms of improvement to the team. And at spots like CB and DT we've taken a step back. Even at WR, we only have 4 and we're maybe slightly better than we were when we had to make a deal for Cooper (who's spot we haven't replaced) halfway through the season bc we didn't have enough.

 

With what's left in Free Agency and where we're at financially - we're looking to the Draft to fill a lot of those holes. And our best shot at doing that is with the highest picks we have. To use our top asset for a guy who we know will be on ice until next season isn't really feasible IMO.

[BarleyNY]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

With the holes we have at positions of need and what's left in Free Agency (not to mention of our cap) - that 1st Pick is going to see significant snaps, if not start. It's been that way with a Rookie dating back to the beginning with this regime, save for Epenesa (who was a late 2nd Round pick) and Elam (who got beat out by Benford).

 

Last year it was Keon Coleman, the year before Dalton Kincaid, in 2022 it was supposed to be Kaiir Elam but ended up being Benford (finding a Benford in the 6th is the exception, not the rule), in 2021 it was Greg Rousseau, in 2019 it was Ed Oliver, in 2018 it was Josh Allen and Tremaine Edmunds, and in 2017 it was Tre White.

 

A positive contribution is greater than no contribution at all. Especially when the roster is in the shape it's in after a pretty lacking Free Agency.

 

Many of those examples illustrate why a team should not depend on rookies to make much of an impact in that first year. 

[BillsFanForever19]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Many of those examples illustrate why a team should not depend on rookies to make much of an impact in that first year. 

 

I don't disagree. I've been saying in every post that Beane didn't do nearly enough in the market to replace the players we lost or needed to uprgrade from and that because of it, we're relying on the Draft way more than I expected or wanted to. That said, it doesn't change the fact that that's the exact position he has put the team in. 

[QLBillsFan]

On 3/19/2025 at 6:52 PM, Doc Brown said:

We already blew it by not trading for Metcalf.  Let me know if there's a WR who's a 6'4" physical freak that runs a 4.33 40 time in this draft.

Seems he’s been good but not great for a $30 M price tag. And therefore impacting the other moves Bills have made to keep some core  Bills and FA’s like Bosa 🤷🏻‍♂️

Edited Monday at 01:34 AM by QLBillsFan

[JohnNord]

12 hours ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

I think Carter could be good because from what I saw he has good movement skills for someone with his thickness/density.  I think with a year in an NFL weight room, team prescribed diet, and familiarity with the scheme and play speed of the NFL, it could lead to a meaningful jump in year #2.  Plus he is a very high-character player that has shown a lifetime of high-motivation to improve and excel.  Seems it is more reasonable to believe he could work out than to not believe he could.

Gosh that is atrocious.  I almost forgot how bad that was - and all top 15 picks or so.  That is part of why I think jumping up is not the right strategy.  Draft picks are lottery tickets, and I would like to play more rather than less.

What concerns me about Carter is that he was horrendous down the stretch of the season.  He never got to a point where he could hit the rookie wall.    He was a straight up liability on the field.  
 

Carter was easily the worst player on a defensive line which consisted of street free agents like Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson and underwhelming talent like Austin Johnson.  Yeah I know he was playing through a wrist injury but he wasn’t just bad - he was the weakest link on the DL and it got so bad they made him a healthy scratch late in the season.  
 

The healthy scratch is what makes me pessimistic about Carter.  He reminds me of Boogie Basham and it seems like his ceiling is “rotational piece” in the DL.  Not great for a 3rd round pick.  
 

Hopefully I’m wrong but I’m pretty discouraged by Carter as a rookie.   

[Doc Brown]

18 minutes ago, QLBillsFan said:

Seems he’s been good but not great for a $30 M price tag. And therefore impacting the other moves Bills have made to keep some core  Bills and FA’s like Bosa 🤷🏻‍♂️

Could've easily signed both.  He only has $60m guaranteed and it would've been easy to get out of after two years.  His cap hit this year would've only been $11m.

[JohnNord]

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nobody is disputing we need a 1T. We need a corner too. But Brandon Beane needs to say "screw my needs" and take the guy there at #30 he thinks has the best chance to be a legit elite playmaker 2 years from now. Not the guy who can play the most snaps for him for the first 6 weeks because he went out and blew his free agency wad on two guys who got caught juicing. 

 

We all make mistakes in our professional lives. The one thing I have learnt in mine is never chase your mistake or compound it by allowing it to influence your next decision.

 

Passing on someone you think could be elite because you "must have" a guy who can start week 1 as a rookie would be chasing your mistake. 

It’s a good mindset… the bigger problem is questioning whether this regime can identify “elite” talent in the draft because right now, I’d only put Josh Allen on that list - though players like Brown and Cook might have a shot at coming close 

[Doc Brown]

5 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

It’s a good mindset… the bigger problem is questioning whether this regime can identify “elite” talent in the draft because right now, I’d only put Josh Allen on that list - though players like Brown and Cook might have a shot at coming close 

Benford had an elite season last year.  Taron Johnson was 2nd all team pro in 2023.  Beane's always better at finding diamonds in the rough on day 3.  Even Cook was the second last pick of the 2nd round.

[QLBillsFan]

37 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Could've easily signed both.  He only has $60m guaranteed and it would've been easy to get out of after two years.  His cap hit this year would've only been $11m.

I think the long term core players would also be impacted. And again we just had a high priced diva WR and I think the Bills are over that. Have not imho seen enough for that contact. 

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, QLBillsFan said:

I think the long term core players would also be impacted. And again we just had a high priced diva WR and I think the Bills are over that. Have not imho seen enough for that contact. 

His floor so far in his career is 900 receiving yards his rookie year which is better than any other WR on our roster.  Josh Allen is an upgrade over Russ and Geno.  He'd immediately become the most explosive and big play WR Josh has every played with.  He's definitely emotional on the field but a lot of his teammates and coaches have defended him.  I'd sign up for another four years of Diggs like production even if he is a "diva."  Golden opportunity missed by Beane imo.

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I don't disagree. I've been saying in every post that Beane didn't do nearly enough in the market to replace the players we lost or needed to uprgrade from and that because of it, we're relying on the Draft way more than I expected or wanted to. That said, it doesn't change the fact that that's the exact position he has put the team in. 

 

He certainly has done that repeatedly. I’m just hoping for better this year and I’m talking about what he should do, not what I think he will do. 

[Doc Brown]

8 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

If you read the posts before that one you'd see the entire discussion hinged on Happy's question of if Jihaad Campbell were to fall to us bc of an 8-9 month recovery window for a Surgery he just had - would you take him?

I'm afraid McDermott is going to beg Beane to move up for him.

[BillsFanForever19]

3 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I'm afraid McDermott is going to beg Beane to move up for him.

 

Now that's a joke I get 😆

[DJB]

 

It’s clear from our system that our DE’s aren’t allowed to pin their ears back unless it’s 3rd and long . 
 

Perhaps it’s our scheme holding us back on D 

[MarlinTheMagician]

On 3/23/2025 at 9:54 PM, JohnNord said:

What concerns me about Carter is that he was horrendous down the stretch of the season.  He never got to a point where he could hit the rookie wall.    He was a straight up liability on the field.  
 

Carter was easily the worst player on a defensive line which consisted of street free agents like Jordan Phillips and Quinton Jefferson and underwhelming talent like Austin Johnson.  Yeah I know he was playing through a wrist injury but he wasn’t just bad - he was the weakest link on the DL and it got so bad they made him a healthy scratch late in the season.  
 

The healthy scratch is what makes me pessimistic about Carter.  He reminds me of Boogie Basham and it seems like his ceiling is “rotational piece” in the DL.  Not great for a 3rd round pick.  
 

Hopefully I’m wrong but I’m pretty discouraged by Carter as a rookie.   

 

Valid points, but here are a couple different takes:

 

1. We don't know how "over" his injury he was or not; 

2. Carter is not a meathead; and

3. "Boogie" was an edge who seemed to lack the basic physical traits to excel at the position.  He generally looked slow and heavy-footed, which matches his pre-draft scouting reports, as I recall.  So I think apples and oranges comparison.

[JohnNord]

8 hours ago, MarlinTheMagician said:

 

Valid points, but here are a couple different takes:

 

1. We don't know how "over" his injury he was or not; 

2. Carter is not a meathead; and

3. "Boogie" was an edge who seemed to lack the basic physical traits to excel at the position.  He generally looked slow and heavy-footed, which matches his pre-draft scouting reports, as I recall.  So I think apples and oranges comparison.

I wasn’t comparing Carter to Boogie as a player, as much as I was comparing their situations.  Both were Day 2 picks that struggled to get meaningful snaps on DL with fairly weak depth.   I especially think being made a healthy scratch that late in the season is not nothing and has been revered for your Bashams and Elams

 

I think #1 is really the only reason for optimism, but I’m skeptical that the wrist injury was the entire reason.  Why wouldn’t Buffalo put him on IR and get a free roster spot?  

Like people have said, some players aren’t good as rookies.   I wouldn’t be shocked to see him improve, it’s just not something I’m banking on.  

[MarlinTheMagician]

13 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I wasn’t comparing Carter to Boogie as a player, as much as I was comparing their situations.  Both were Day 2 picks that struggled to get meaningful snaps on DL with fairly weak depth.   I especially think being made a healthy scratch that late in the season is not nothing and has been revered for your Bashams and Elams

 

I think #1 is really the only reason for optimism, but I’m skeptical that the wrist injury was the entire reason.  Why wouldn’t Buffalo put him on IR and get a free roster spot?  

Like people have said, some players aren’t good as rookies.   I wouldn’t be shocked to see him improve, it’s just not something I’m banking on.  

Fair point about the "healthy" scratches - but those also consistent with Carter not being fully healthy.  But your last point is the best, some (most) rooks are not what they will become their first year.  And I can grant this is a big year for Carter for sure.  If he doesn't play a meaningful role it is bad for the Bills and worse for him.  People can differ on the likelihood of him making a big jump in performance, and I guess I am just more optimistic.  You may have done this already, but if you have not checking out some of his games at Duke and some of his interviews.  This guy is a MAN that will die for his team and has performed at a high-level for a long time.  He may stink it up, but I like his chances to be a meaningful contributor more than worthy of a third round pick.  We'll see!  Good luck and Go Bills!   

Edited Wednesday at 10:27 AM by MarlinTheMagician