Free Agency Folly?

[DeepPass]

Is Free Agency just and NFL adventure to move very average or below players around the League?  So many leave their current teams after failing to live up to expectations for 3 or 4 years with "it just didn't work out" as an excuse. It's like picking from a list of bad movies just to say you went to a show.  

 

As an example, our 2023 Free Agents included Edwards and McGovern who currently start on our very good OL.  The rest of that years class of Free Agents who stayed with the Bills for just ONE SEASON  included:

 

-Latavius Murray, RB,now out of the NFL

-Poona Ford, DT, now with Seattle and has been with 3 NFL teams

-Trent Sherfield, WR, now with Denver and has been with 5 other teams

-Deonte Harty, WT/ST, now with Ravens and has been with 3 NFL teams

-Kyle Allen, QB, now with Detroit and has been with 6 NFL teams

-Damien Harris, RB, now out of the NFL

 

Late in the season players must know their Agents haven't been contacted by the Bills about a new contract to stay around.  It must be depressing!  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

NFL is all about matchups and role players.

 

One of the guys on that list found himself in a nice situation last year and received a nice payday this summer. 

[BillsFanForever19]

3 hours ago, DeepPass said:

-Poona Ford, DT, now with Seattle and has been with 3 NFL teams

 

You're aware he just signed a 3 year, thirty million dollar deal, right?

 

It's a complete joke he couldn't see the field for us. But he was an absolute stud last year and just got a massive contract. He doesn't deserve to be on the failure list.

Edited yesterday at 05:39 AM by BillsFanForever19

[The Cincinnati Kid]

Most NFL players are not superstars. Most are NFL caliber players and a good chunk are bottom of the roster guys. Is what it is. 

[Bob Chandler's Hands]

52 minutes ago, DeepPass said:

Is Free Agency just and NFL adventure to move very average or below players around the League?  So many leave their current teams after failing to live up to expectations for 3 or 4 years with "it just didn't work out" as an excuse. It's like picking from a list of bad movies just to say you went to a show.  

 

As an example, our 2023 Free Agents included Edwards and McGovern who currently start on our very good OL.  The rest of that years class of Free Agents who stayed with the Bills for just ONE SEASON  included:

 

-Latavius Murray, RB,now out of the NFL

-Poona Ford, DT, now with Seattle and has been with 3 NFL teams

-Trent Sherfield, WR, now with Denver and has been with 5 other teams

-Deonte Harty, WT/ST, now with Ravens and has been with 3 NFL teams

-Kyle Allen, QB, now with Detroit and has been with 6 NFL teams

-Damien Harris, RB, now out of the NFL

 

Late in the season players must know their Agents haven't been contacted by the Bills about a new contract to stay around.  It must be depressing!  

You start out your argument by stating that the Bills signed two starters on the very good offensive line. 

So what if the rest of the guys were bottom of the roster "Just a Guys"? Teams need a bunch of those guys.  And so what if the two RB's are now out of the NFL? Harris suffered multiple injuries and Murray is about 87 years old. 

(Even accounting for Poona Ford having a good year after leaving Buffalo)

[Aussie Joe]

It provides offseason content …takes care of a lot March …. Several people here have seemed to be pretty invested this past week or so  ..I include myself on that list …

 

There is only so much it will do to change the fortunes of your team though ..go and ask the Jets or Dolphins …

[DeepPass]

42 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

You're aware he just signed a 3 year, SIXTY million dollar deal, right?

 

It's a complete joke he couldn't see the field for us. But he was an absolute stud last year and just got a massive contract. He doesn't deserve to be on the failure list.

 

42 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

You're aware he just signed a 3 year, SIXTY million dollar deal, right?

 

It's a complete joke he couldn't see the field for us. But he was an absolute stud last year and just got a massive contract. He doesn't deserve to be on the failure list.

Who said he was a stud last season?  The Seattle media that was so happy they won 10 games ?  Sixty million dollar deal ! That proves the FOLLY of NFL Free Agency.  

[BillsFanForever19]

36 minutes ago, DeepPass said:

 

Who said he was a stud last season?  The Seattle media that was so happy they won 10 games ?  Sixty million dollar deal ! That proves the FOLLY of NFL Free Agency.  

 

Considering you aren't even aware of where he played last season (LA not Seattle), I shouldn't be surprised that you're unaware of the kind of season he put in.

 

Go ahead and argue your stance on the merits and demerits of spending big money in Free Agency. But to dismiss the kind of difference maker he was last season to make your point is a true "folly".

 

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5938996/2024/11/22/poona-ford-chargers-defense-bills/

 

 

Edited yesterday at 04:46 AM by BillsFanForever19

[buffaloboyinATL]

So much about success in the NFL hinges on system, supporting cast, Utilization, etc.

 

There are a few handfuls of players in the league that will succeed solely on their own abilities.  The vast majority need to be in the right place at the right time.

 

Unfortunately, although I can’t blame them, many choose money over the right coach, right scheme, etc.  

 

The reality is, if you consider the other factors first, the money follows, more often than not.  
 

Edited yesterday at 04:53 AM by buffaloboyinATL

[Zag20]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

You're aware he just signed a 3 year, SIXTY million dollar deal, right?

 

It's a complete joke he couldn't see the field for us. But he was an absolute stud last year and just got a massive contract. He doesn't deserve to be on the failure list.

This is false. He signed a 3 year, THIRTY million dollar deal. 

[BillsFanForever19]

9 minutes ago, Zag20 said:

This is false. He signed a 3 year, THIRTY million dollar deal. 

 

Thank you. My mistake.

[Florida Bills Fanatic]

For me, the worst part of the free agency period is all the hype spewed forth by media people and clueless fans.  Good signings are proclaimed to be championship winning and mediocre signings are proclaimed to be franchise destroying decisions.  In most situations, none of these things are true.  I try to focus on opinion sources that have a proven track record of being realistically correct (that applies to posters on this site also).  I look for the opinions that are based on actual research and data.  Fortunately for us, there are several people on this site that do great research and present facts to help keep us well informed.

 

Free agents become available for a number of reasons and not all of them are the result of poor performance, although some are.  I think Beane has had to focus mainly on lower cost free agents, to be depth and rotational players.  The starters that he does sign as free agents seem to fall into the "value signing" category.  I have to admit that this free agency period for the Bills has gone pretty much as I expected.  I am neither exuberant nor disappointed about any of the signings but I am hopeful that some of the guys exceed the consensus of expectations.

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

12 hours ago, DeepPass said:

Is Free Agency just and NFL adventure to move very average or below players around the League?  So many leave their current teams after failing to live up to expectations for 3 or 4 years with "it just didn't work out" as an excuse. It's like picking from a list of bad movies just to say you went to a show.  

 

As an example, our 2023 Free Agents included Edwards and McGovern who currently start on our very good OL.  The rest of that years class of Free Agents who stayed with the Bills for just ONE SEASON  included:

 

-Latavius Murray, RB,now out of the NFL

-Poona Ford, DT, now with Seattle and has been with 3 NFL teams

-Trent Sherfield, WR, now with Denver and has been with 5 other teams

-Deonte Harty, WT/ST, now with Ravens and has been with 3 NFL teams

-Kyle Allen, QB, now with Detroit and has been with 6 NFL teams

-Damien Harris, RB, now out of the NFL

 

Late in the season players must know their Agents haven't been contacted by the Bills about a new contract to stay around.  It must be depressing!  

You make a great point. Free agency is largely designed for the lower tier players and for teams to fill out their rosters with those guys. 
 

I think teams can strike gold on certain types of players— mostly, the aging vet that might have a good year left (Henry), or the rough or underused prospect that has never been given much playing time. But otherwise, what’s the difference between Sherfield and Harty? 

[BuffaloBillyG]

The issue I have is that very rarely are superstar players close to their prime ever in FA. Yes occasionally a Barkley will hit the market. Teams tend to re-sign those guys. Or slap the tag on them. Look at the FA list for the 2026 off season now. And over the next year one by one the top names at each position will be re-signed. 

 

That leaves trying to soft through the rest and find guys that may fit a role on your team. A piece to the puzzle so to speak. Guy like Mack Hollins for us last year is a great example. Not flashy, but did what we needed him to do in a role left behind by Gabe. Good fit 

 

Unfortunately, teams are also flush with cash at that point in the season and overpaying these players has become the norm. So when their 1 or 2 year FA deal is up and they want a raise, it's harder to justify as they were likely overpaid to start with. 

 

Leaves looking back to FA for a replacement and the cycle continues.

[Goin Breakdown]

I'd say it's more of average to below average player's adventure to stay in the league. These guys have contracts. If they don't live up to the contract with the current team then like all other jobs....good luck at your next one. Sometimes a free agent can also Be a great player that a team just can't afford or want to get younger at. But wouldn't say it's just a gimmick to create buzz. Although that's exactly what it does. 

[DrDawkinstein]

I'd say it's working exactly as intended for both the teams and the players.

[Coach Tuesday]

I honestly am not sure what the OP's main point is.

 

In any event, except for Murray who retired due to age and Harris due to injury, all of the players on that list are still in the league and most are signed for above the vet minimum.  So those aren't players who can't play - but they are players who the Bills could not for whatever reason integrate into their system.  There is some kind of disconnect between the pro personnel department and the coaching staff that has persisted throughout McBeane's tenure.  Offensive line (as the OP points out) is a notable exception - I am guessing because Kramer is clear at explaining what he wants and Beane and his lieutenants understand what to look for.  But they struggle identifying free agent fits at nearly every other position group for reasons that frankly are confounding.  It is a clear weakness of Beane and McDermott that does not seem to exist with respect to drafted rookies, whom they tend to have good plans for and a decent idea of fit/role.  Not so much for free agents for whatever reason but it's a material weakness of the organization to this day.  Something about their process does not work.

Edited yesterday at 03:41 PM by Coach Tuesday

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

19 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

The issue I have is that very rarely are superstar players close to their prime ever in FA. Yes occasionally a Barkley will hit the market. Teams tend to re-sign those guys. Or slap the tag on them. Look at the FA list for the 2026 off season now. And over the next year one by one the top names at each position will be re-signed. 

 

That leaves trying to soft through the rest and find guys that may fit a role on your team. A piece to the puzzle so to speak. Guy like Mack Hollins for us last year is a great example. Not flashy, but did what we needed him to do in a role left behind by Gabe. Good fit 

 

Unfortunately, teams are also flush with cash at that point in the season and overpaying these players has become the norm. So when their 1 or 2 year FA deal is up and they want a raise, it's harder to justify as they were likely overpaid to start with. 

 

Leaves looking back to FA for a replacement and the cycle continues.

 

Then you get the players who are released in cap crunches looking for a new home.  If they were still superstars they probably wouldn't be the cap casualty.  

[Logic]

I think that this year's free agency period was an example of a growing trend in the NFL:

Teams and GMs have gotten much better at finessing the cap, at finding loopholes and financial tricks like the use of signing bonuses, void years, contract incentives, etc. This, along with the franchise tag and an ever-rising salary cap, has allowed teams to increasingly keep their best players and to never allow them to see free agency during their prime years. 

 

Whereas in the first decade or two of the existence of unrestricted free agency, the salary cap meant that elite players hit the market at a pretty good rate, times (and methods) have changed. Teams' abilities to circumvent the salary cap (or to at least "creatively massage" player contracts) has caught up to free agency. As this happens, we're beginning to see free agent classes filled with less and less marquee players -- culminating in this year's highly lackluster free agent class.

Nowadays, teams' stars come mostly from the draft or via trade. The marquee players acquired via trade has, in my estimation, far outstripped the amount of marquee players acquired via free agency in recent years.

As it stands now, free agency is primarily a vehicle with which to fill out your depth chart and churn the bottom of your roster. To fill roster vacancies with mostly replacement level veteran players, while teams devote the REAL cap dollars to their best players instead. Time will tell if there is any kind of course correction and if the pendulum of free agency ultimately swings back toward more star players becoming available. A stronger NFLPA with a bit more balls and gumption would certainly help in this regard.

To his credit, Beane has mostly been ahead of or apace with this trend throughout his tenure as GM of the Bills. He has, with few exceptions, mostly used free agency exactly as described above, resisting the temptation to go "star-hunting", and stating instead that his main objective is to draft, develop, and re-sign his own players. This offseason was a great example of his mostly sticking to his word.

Edited yesterday at 03:56 PM by Logic

[BuffaloBillyG]

6 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Then you get the players who are released in cap crunches looking for a new home.  If they were still superstars they probably wouldn't be the cap casualty.  

And the issue with those types is you are going to be paying for their name and past performance instead of paying for the player you are likely going to get. Superstar rate at JAG results. Which results in releasing the guy a year or two into a "4 year $60M" dollar deal and earns you a heap of dead cap.