Your thoughts on the Bills offseason so far

[Freddie's Dead]

The PED suspensions cast a pall over the FA acquisitions.  It will remain to be seen how much those affect the performance of the DL.  

[Mikie2times]

59 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

 

Who said they remain the same? You say it, and few others, who bash almost every move the Bills make, always.

 

Better at wide receiver with Palmer, a guy who averaged 15 yards a catch the last two years, runs great routes, and gets open in the intermediate+ area of the field.

 

Better at safety with Forrest who may become a starter, and the resigning of Hamlin, adding some depth and a safety net.

 

Better on the D-lIne with Bosa, Hoecht, and Ogunjobi, though the suspensions hurt.

 

Three areas in need of help, improved, by most objective standards that is...

 

Hard to imagine anyone saying that the Bills have not gotten better in the off season.

 

For a team that was in the AFC Championship game and leading late in the 4th quarter.

 

And now a draft with a solid amount of capital to get a high quality D-tackle, some good CBs, and a speedy wideout.

 

 

 

 

 

WR Worse

Palmer went 584 yards and 1 TD last year. WITH a solid QB and fairly light competition for targets. Which is within the stat profile range of players like Amari Cooper, Mac Hollins, Curtis Samuel, Emmanuel Sanders, and Deonte Hardy. I like Palmer and I'm optimistic about him, but to be objective, subtracting a guy like Mac and Cooper for him is not a break even until proven otherwise. 

 

Safety Better

I agree with this more based on the expectation that Bishop takes a big step. Forrest could end up being the next Poyer/Hyde acquisition or he could end up being more like Cam Lewis. Similar to Palmer, being objective, it's a total crap shoot. 

 

D Line Slightly better

In the last 3 years Von Miller has more sacks than Joey Bosa. It's not just one injury either, nagging issues like back problems make availability a serious question mark. Partner that with the likely further decline of DaQuan Jones who is still the starting 1 Tech and this group feels more break even. It does have some upward paths no doubt. A good draft, the availability of Hoecht and Ogunjobi, but we don't know what this looks like yet. Some improvement here, but will be hard to know until we get further along.

 

Corner Worse

I like Jackson for depth, but you can't subtract a multi year starter and replace him with Dane Jackson and call it a break even. This will depend on further additions and the draft. 

 

We don't seem signifgantly better or worse for that matter. Which for me is really disappointing as I feel we have been so close for so long, just one significant upgrade is all it will take and we haven't added one in 2023 or 2024. Our only path for 2025 will be the draft.  

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 12:31 AM by Mikie2times

[Thurman#1]

Interesting choices in the poll.

 

One flat mediocre, two bad and one good. And other. Hmm.

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I would've been 'acceptable', but the PED suspensions push it down to 'poor'. 

[uticaclub]

1 hour ago, Mister Defense said:

 

Who said they remain the same? You say it, and few others, who bash almost every move the Bills make, always.

 

Better at wide receiver with Palmer, a guy who averaged 15 yards a catch the last two years, runs great routes, and gets open in the intermediate+ area of the field.

 

Better at safety with Forrest who may become a starter, and the resigning of Hamlin, adding some depth and a safety net.

 

Better on the D-lIne with Bosa, Hoecht, and Ogunjobi, though the suspensions hurt.

 

Three areas in need of help, improved, by most objective standards that is...

 

Hard to imagine anyone saying that the Bills have not gotten better in the off season.

 

For a team that was in the AFC Championship game and leading late in the 4th quarter.

 

And now a draft with a solid amount of capital to get a high quality D-tackle, some good CBs, and a speedy wideout.

 

 

 

 

people voted for "stayed the same" in question 2.

 

The majority of people felt that we stayed the same, and they found it acceptable. You believe that we improved and made some valid points. However, I just don't understand how it was considered acceptable to remain the same.

 

I don't bash moves until at least a year or two, I remain optimistic until it’s time not to be. We will see how things work out because I curse X player being signed or drafted

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

8 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Outside of the PEDs suspensions it’s been steps in the correct direction, now the draft…, 

Yeah, the PED suspensions really put a damper on an acceptable FA class. All in all, I don’t think it will affect the Bills much as they usually cruise through the first half of the season. Hopefully those suspended players are practicing hard and memorizing the playbook during their little vacations.

 

For me (and probably most people) the biggest signing was Joey Bosa. If he can stay relatively healthy, it will transform this defense into something fierce.

[Doc Brown]

36 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

people voted for "stayed the same" in question 2.

 

The majority of people felt that we stayed the same, and they found it acceptable. You believe that we improved and made some valid points. However, I just don't understand how it was considered acceptable to remain the same.

 

I don't bash moves until at least a year or two, I remain optimistic until it’s time not to be. We will see how things work out because I curse X player being signed or drafted

We got within three points of a Super Bowl last year so "stay the same" before the draft is acceptable.  I thought locking up Rousseau at $20m was a steal.  We got a little worse on defense losing Douglas.  He wasn't great last year but he's still better than Dane Jackson.  Bosa if he stays healthy would cancel the loss of Douglas I guess.  Palmer is an upgrade over Cooper.  Special teams coach is a huge upgrade.  If we traded for Metcalf it would've been a home run free agency period. 

Edited yesterday at 01:58 AM by Doc Brown

[Warriorspikes51]

Average.  
 

Bosa is either on IR or an All-Pro with 15 sacks

 

We really needed to add another elite player (Metcalf would have been thrilling)

 

at this point our best hope and most impactful move would be to draft a Beast 1T + another DT with size and power

Edited yesterday at 02:08 AM by Warriorspikes51

[BarleyNY]

I’ll say this: it’s not like the Bills aren’t trying to help themselves. They’re spending on keeping players and acquiring new ones. They’ve somewhat overspent on many of the moves, but the alternative would have been to watch their talent fall off substantially this year and next. That would be far worse. They’re in a tough spot and they are doing what they can to put the team into position to win.

[Mikie2times]

29 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

We got within three points of a Super Bowl last year so "stay the same" before the draft is acceptable.  I thought locking up Rousseau at $20m was a steal.  We got a little worse on defense losing Douglas.  He wasn't great last year but he's still better than Dane Jackson.  Bosa if he stays healthy would cancel the loss of Douglas I guess.  Palmer is an upgrade over Cooper.  Special teams coach is a huge upgrade.  If we traded for Metcalf it would've been a home run free agency period. 

And the last year and the year before. Some people feel those three points might as well be 30. Which is not a hard argument to make. We have only been to the AFC championship game two times across the McD era. This team is not clearly more talented than the past. Fairly easy to argue it is less talented, and most certainly is on defense.  We haven’t come within 3 points in a Super Bowl. We haven’t made it to a Super Bowl. 
 

So it doesn’t really feel like a play or two away from my view point. It feels like we need to get incredibly lucky with our health (again). Probably beat at least one, if not two, teams that have a better roster on the AFC side. Then we can get to the Super Bowl and hope we don’t run into a juggernaut like Philly which we haven’t even had the chance to experience yet. Long way to go from a play or two unfortunately. 

[Doc Brown]

30 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

And the last year and the year before. Some people feel those three points might as well be 30. Which is not a hard argument to make. We have only been to the AFC championship game two times across the McD era. This team is not clearly more talented than the past. Fairly easy to argue it is less talented, and most certainly is on defense.  We haven’t come within 3 points in a Super Bowl. We haven’t made it to a Super Bowl. 
 

So it doesn’t really feel like a play or two away from my view point. It feels like we need to get incredibly lucky with our health (again). Probably beat at least one, if not two, teams that have a better roster on the AFC side. Then we can get to the Super Bowl and hope we don’t run into a juggernaut like Philly which we haven’t even had the chance to experience yet. Long way to go from a play or two unfortunately. 

I disagree about last year as we got worse after free agency losing Morse and Floyd without replacing them.  There were a lot of dire predictions on here and the national media that we'd be lucky to get a Wild Card spot with one of the hardest schedules in the league.  We went 13-3 with Allen as the starter and beat the two #1 seeds in each conference.  There will be some regression in the turnover department but Brady's offense will still be more turnover adverse than previous coordinators.  Our defense still will create turnovers with all those peanut punches they do as if it's drilled into their heads. 

 

As for health, last year was a mixed bag.  We had a lot of wrist injuries specifically at WR and it seemed like our defense was never at full strength until the playoffs.  Even then Benford gets concussed twice and the Chiefs took advantage of it.  We won't be as lucky on the o-line with injuries but I won't estimate Kromer's ability to have our backups ready to go more than most teams backups.

 

This whole thread is futile though as you really can't judge an off-season until late August and that's just on paper.

 

Edited yesterday at 02:53 AM by Doc Brown

[PromoTheRobot]

They did things. It may work.

[uticaclub]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

Average.  
 

Bosa is either on IR or an All-Pro with 15 sacks

 

We really needed to add another elite player (Metcalf would have been thrilling)

 

at this point our best hope and most impactful move would be to draft a Beast 1T + another DT with size and power

He was neither last year. I’m expecting Von-level production. 3rd & long only, 5 or 6 sacks 

[Mikie2times]

43 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I disagree about last year as we got worse after free agency losing Morse and Floyd without replacing them.  There were a lot of dire predictions on here and the national media that we'd be lucky to get a Wild Card spot with one of the hardest schedules in the league.  We went 13-3 with Allen as the starter and beat the two #1 seeds in each conference.  There will be some regression in the turnover department but Brady's offense will still be more turnover adverse than previous coordinators.  Our defense still will create turnovers with all those peanut punches they do as if it's drilled into their heads. 

 

As for health, last year was a mixed bag.  We had a lot of wrist injuries specifically at WR and it seemed like our defense was never at full strength until the playoffs.  Even then Benford gets concussed twice and the Chiefs took advantage of it.  We won't be as lucky on the o-line with injuries but I won't estimate Kromer's ability to have our backups ready to go more than most teams backups.

 

This whole thread is futile though as you really can't judge an off-season until late August and that's just on paper.

 

Prior to the start of last year everybody was just wrong on this team. The offensive line ended up being our biggest strength. Allen rose his level of play. Cook exploded. The turnover differential became even more extreme. But we still saw the reasons to be concerned and question if we could play with the top 3-5 teams come playoff time.

 

Lack of a space eating DT, lack of a separating WR,  secondary concerns. Just because we survived Baltimore and nearly beat KC didn't leave me walking away thinking we had the edge. I don't even know if we would win 3 of 10 at home vs the Ravens. We did that day and that's what matters, but we are talking about our future trajectory. We have seen so many iterations of this team and as of last year this particular version is not as good as past versions from a talent perspective. Better as a whole? Likely, but not as talented. Our EPA on defense excluding turnovers was among the worst in the NFL. It was top 10 in the past. We couldn't get off the field last year. 

 

So shame on anybody if they think a Josh Allen led team will not be competing for a division title and in thick of it as many did last year. But have we slanted the field in our direction as a team should progressively do over time with a guy like Allen? Absolutely not. We have not added a difference maker in two years. With a threat of three years if we don't bag one this year.  Sure one could develop, and that's what you hope for as our FA classes are largely depth. But at this stage of the offseason I can't say staying even is improving. It's a step back to me, because to take the next step and push the deck in our favor we needed to be a little better.  

Edited yesterday at 03:35 AM by Mikie2times

[Warriorspikes51]

One unexpected path forward could be Beane looking to acquire a lockdown corner via trade. 
 

Jaire Alexander, Jaylon Johnson, Reek Woolen are names that come to mind.

 

it likely costs your 1st this year or next year + something else

 

If we retained 2 of our top 3 picks this year, then you grab 2 DTs.  
 

Now there’s potential for a far more difficult Defense to deal with

 

[Warriorspikes51]

At this point I would like to see Rasul brought back.  He was an absolute difference maker when we first acquired him.

 

Perhaps some of that comes back

 

I think he has enough left to warrant a 1-2 year deal

[Warriorspikes51]

 

[Mikie2times]

13 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Have we heard of any activity

with him at this point?

[uticaclub]

1 hour ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

One unexpected path forward could be Beane looking to acquire a lockdown corner via trade. 
 

Jaire Alexander, Jaylon Johnson, Reek Woolen are names that come to mind.

 

it likely costs your 1st this year or next year + something else

 

If we retained 2 of our top 3 picks this year, then you grab 2 DTs.  
 

Now there’s potential for a far more difficult Defense to deal with

 

Coleman dominated Woolen, I was hoping the Jets or Pats would make a move for him.

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

Prior to the start of last year everybody was just wrong on this team. The offensive line ended up being our biggest strength. Allen rose his level of play. Cook exploded. The turnover differential became even more extreme. But we still saw the reasons to be concerned and question if we could play with the top 3-5 teams come playoff time.

 

Lack of a space eating DT, lack of a separating WR,  secondary concerns. Just because we survived Baltimore and nearly beat KC didn't leave me walking away thinking we had the edge. I don't even know if we would win 3 of 10 at home vs the Ravens. We did that day and that's what matters, but we are talking about our future trajectory. We have seen so many iterations of this team and as of last year this particular version is not as good as past versions from a talent perspective. Better as a whole? Likely, but not as talented. Our EPA on defense excluding turnovers was among the worst in the NFL. It was top 10 in the past. We couldn't get off the field last year. 

 

So shame on anybody if they think a Josh Allen led team will not be competing for a division title and in thick of it as many did last year. But have we slanted the field in our direction as a team should progressively do over time with a guy like Allen? Absolutely not. We have not added a difference maker in two years. With a threat of three years if we don't bag one this year.  Sure one could develop, and that's what you hope for as our FA classes are largely depth. But at this stage of the offseason I can't say staying even is improving. It's a step back to me, because to take the next step and push the deck in our favor we needed to be a little better.  

Don't you think that can happen again though?  You listed some negatives so I'll just give you the half glass full look.

-Continuity with offense and defensive coordinators who theoretically should be better at their job.  I think your point about EPA on defense was a good one and maybe Babich should be on the hot seat.  I know everyone loves his personality and believe he can grow on the job.  However, he has to prove it or I could see McD taking over play calling permanently next year.

-Continuity on offense with the same starting five offensive lineman.  Has that ever happened here before?  Anderson included.

-We've seen young players grow in their 2nd and/or 3rd year (Cook, Shakir, Dawkins, Milano, Brown, Knox, T. Johnson, Benford).  No reason to believe one or more of Coleman, Kincaid, Torrence, and Carter can't do the same.  Players in contract years usually perform well so Cook and Benford should ball out this year.

-More competition at safety with signing Darrick Forest and pry drafting another one.  I don't think Hamlin's the week one starter.

-Again, this is glass half full but Bosa could be the player we all hoped Von would be when he signed here.  Do I think he can stay healthy?  No.  Do I think the Bills will do everything possible to make sure he's a 100% come playoff time when we have to likely play at least two of the three elite QB's in the league (Mahomes, Jackson, Burrow).  Yes.

 

I've never been a big free agent guy because there's usually a reason these players hit the open market.  It's kind of sad when the best free agent that wasn't re-signed by another team was Jevon Holland.  However, Palmer and Bosa intrigue me.  You also make a good point about trying to acquire difference makers which is why I'll always be sour that the Bills didn't offer more for Metcalf than the Steelers did.  Same goes for not signing Hopkins a couple years back when he went to Tennessee instead.

 

Edited yesterday at 07:28 AM by Doc Brown