Derek Stingley Jr. Resets the CB Market

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

Really???

 

How much game film do you watch? How many times have you seen Benford get burned or even targeted over the years?

 

I don't watch film but trust the guys who do like Joe Marino, Nate Tice, Bruce Nolan and Robert Mayes. Those guys all think he's somewhere in the range of really good to Elite.

 

Benford's camp was smart to hold out. His price range is probably somewhere between $25-$30m AAV

I don't know what the right price is, but I agree with your analysis.  

 

I don't watch film, either, and I haven't heard what the amateur Bills experts are saying, but I know what I see and don't.  I see him around the ball all the time. I see him break up passes.  I see him be a solid, aggressive tackler in the run game.  I don't see him getting beaten and I don't see him missing assignments or tackles. 

 

I think he's a cornerstone defensive back, the equivalent of Tre White.  Solid, all-round football player and defensive back who secures one side of the field for his team.  He may not be a truly elite cover guy, but he is elite in this defense.  

 

I think the Bills will be forced to match the market on him.  Some team probably will overpay him, and that's what the Bills will need to match. 

 

I think he's a great piece of the backfield puzzle for the next five years.  I think if the Bills can afford only to keep one and to lose one, they'll lose Cook and keep Benford. 

Edited 11 hours ago by Shaw66

[Utah John]

5 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

 

Really???

 

How much game film do you watch? How many times have you seen Benford get burned or even targeted over the years?

 

I don't watch film but trust the guys who do like Joe Marino, Nate Tice, Bruce Nolan and Robert Mayes. Those guys all think he's somewhere in the range of really good to Elite.

 

Benford's camp was smart to hold out. His price range is probably somewhere between $25-$30m AAV

Benford didn't get targeted much because the Bills' other CB was always worse, with Douglas struggling at times and Elam a train wreck.  Of course other teams looked the other way.

[Shaw66]

3 minutes ago, Utah John said:

Benford didn't get targeted much because the Bills' other CB was always worse, with Douglas struggling at times and Elam a train wreck.  Of course other teams looked the other way.

That's not right.  EVERY team has a better and worse corner.  That doesn't mean that teams don't attack the stronger corner.  There are only certain corners who don't get targeted. And most teams would have loved having Douglas as their #2 corner. 

Edited 11 hours ago by Shaw66

[Magox]

17 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

I like Benford, but he's not in the 25-30m AYV league IMO. 
 

His average completion percentage the last 2 years is right around 65% with (I think) 4 INTs.
 

Stingly's 2 year average is 47% with 10 INTs. 
 

I get they are different types of CBs and what Benford does, he's very good at it. 

Stingley is the premier CB ballhawk in the league.   
 

The completion percentage you are citing is out of context.  Benford is one of the top 2 CB’s in the league in yards per target meaning that when WR’s do catch the ball on him it’s for a pittance.

 

He doesn’t give up many yards and receivers don’t get much separation on him as he is among the leagues best.   
 

He’s also scheme versatile as he is not just a zone CB, he is actually a good man to man corner.    
 

I was thinking the Bills could get him for $21-$23M AAV.  Now I think that ship has sailed.

 

The Bills already have a hole at the position which also increases his leverage.  
 

I don’t see how the Bills let him walk next season unless he regresses or has a serious injury concern.  
 

Benford is arguably the Bills best defensive player, you don’t let guys like that walk unless you have a good backup plan in place.  And the odds that they will find a replacement either via draft or FA as good as him is miniscule.   
 

The only leverage the Bills have is that Benford would have to wait another year before he has life altering income and if he were to be seriously injured he jeopardizes tons of guaranteed money.    Neither camp is in a hurry to get a deal done, realistically they could wait until a few weeks before the season begins.    

[Magox]

Look who is second

 

 

[sven233]

Here's the thing about Benford for me.  I think he is really good.  His numbers are great.  The analytics are great.  He has good size and plays physical. 

 

All that said, I watch him and I never see "Best in the League" out of him.  No, I am not saying others view him as the best in the league by any measure, but I think that is my point.  The numbers say he is in the conversation, but the eye test to me says I don't see a shut down CB deserving of top dollar like he is probably going to get.  He is very good at covering guys down the sidelines and in zone.  In fact, I will say he is elite at those things.  But where my issue with him is when he is lined up against WRs that are great slant runners and when other teams get him running across the field on drag routes.  I've seen him get abused on slants, drags, and crossers and it is because he is not a quick twitch guy and doesn't have top end speed to recover when he does get beat cleanly.  I will say those routes are hard to cover no matter who you are, but there are those guys that just can throw a blanket over the entire field no matter who they are covering and what routes they are covering even when being asked to do it in mostly man situations.  Our scheme plays to Benford's strengths, as it should, but because of that he is not asked to play primarily man coverage for most snaps like other teams ask some of these other top CBs to do against the top WRs in the league.  He also very rarely has been asked to travel with a top WR and cover them for an entire game.  The Bills primarily ask him to line up on his side and whoever the other team throws over there is the guy he covers.  He's not being asked to find WR1 and just shadow him for entire games like the top shut down CBs many times do.

 

Now I don't want this to look like I am bashing the guy.  I am absolutely not doing that.  I think Benford is a top CB in this league.  Borderline top 5 even.  I guess the only point I am trying to make is that I'm struggling to give him money like Stingley just got because I don't view him in the same class as he is.  I think he's great and our scheme has played to his strengths which is obviously important.  I guess the question I have is if you swapped Benford for a guy like Stingley on a different team if he would have the same success in a different system.  If he was forced to be a true lockdown CB in a man to man system, could he do it consistently?  I'm just not sure he could.  But, I know Stingley would still be a shut down CB here.

 

Finally, how can you not think about his health.  Two concussions to close out the year last season and he has missed other important games because of injury as well.  I'm not a doctor and obviously we don't have access to his medical records, but these things are hard to ignore.  I have no doubt that the Bills are going to pay him at some point because he is a very good player, but I am not sure I would be in a hurry to do so.  He's not going to reset the market like Stingley did.  At this point, I think no matter how good he plays next season, we know there the CB market ceiling is at.  So, even if he has the best season of his career next season, and I hope he does, the difference might be in paying him $23-$24 million next season compared to $20-$22 million this season.  I think making sure he can play with the concussions and injury history to see if he can play a full season before you drop a huge contract on him might be worth that extra couple of million he gets next season by waiting.

[DapperCam]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

That's not right.  EVERY team has a better and worse corner.  That doesn't mean that teams don't attack the stronger corner.  There are only certain corners who don't get targeted. And most teams would have loved having Douglas as their #2 corner. 

A couple years ago maybe. Douglas was terrible this past season. He hasn’t been signed and might not even be on a team this season. 

[Shaw66]

39 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

A couple years ago maybe. Douglas was terrible this past season. He hasn’t been signed and might not even be on a team this season. 

He wasn't terrible last year. 

[TheFunPolice]

89/90 million is guaranteed....

 

It's that last million that the team couldn't quite do

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, sven233 said:

All that said, I watch him and I never see "Best in the League" out of him.  No, I am not saying others view him as the best in the league by any measure, but I think that is my point.  The numbers say he is in the conversation, but the eye test to me says I don't see a shut down CB deserving of top dollar like he is probably going to get.  He is very good at covering guys down the sidelines and in zone.  In fact, I will say he is elite at those things.  But where my issue with him is when he is lined up against WRs that are great slant runners and when other teams get him running across the field on drag routes.  I've seen him get abused on slants, drags, and crossers and it is because he is not a quick twitch guy and doesn't have top end speed to recover when he does get beat cleanly.  I will say those routes are hard to cover no matter who you are, but there are those guys that just can throw a blanket over the entire field no matter who they are covering and what routes they are covering even when being asked to do it in mostly man situations.  Our scheme plays to Benford's strengths, as it should, but because of that he is not asked to play primarily man coverage for most snaps like other teams ask some of these other top CBs to do against the top WRs in the league.  He also very rarely has been asked to travel with a top WR and cover them for an entire game.  The Bills primarily ask him to line up on his side and whoever the other team throws over there is the guy he covers.  He's not being asked to find WR1 and just shadow him for entire games like the top shut down CBs many times do.

 

Now I don't want this to look like I am bashing the guy.  I am absolutely not doing that.  I think Benford is a top CB in this league.  Borderline top 5 even.  I guess the only point I am trying to make is that I'm struggling to give him money like Stingley just got because I don't view him in the same class as he is.  I think he's great and our scheme has played to his strengths which is obviously important.  I guess the question I have is if you swapped Benford for a guy like Stingley on a different team if he would have the same success in a different system.  If he was forced to be a true lockdown CB in a man to man system, could he do it consistently?  I'm just not sure he could.  But, I know Stingley would still be a shut down CB here.

 

Well, I left out your discussion about health, because that's kind of imponderable.  It's just very hard to know what his concussion risk is going forward.  

 

But the rest of your discussion fails to recognize an important point: players are worth more to some teams, less to others.  

 

You mention that the Bills scheme plays to Benford's strengths, but then you go on to say he isn't worth top money because he isn't a great shut-down corner. Well, the fact that he isn't an elite shut-down corner should be important to teams that are looking for a shut-down corner, but the Bills aren't.  They had Tre White, who in his prime was a top-five shut-down corner, but the Bills didn't use him as that on a regular basis.  They required him to play in the scheme, which meant that often he was in zone or he had mixed responsibilities.  Most games, he did not switch sides in order to be locked onto the opponent's number one receiver. 

 

A player's value to a his team is based on his skills and the team's needs.  What the Bills need is someone who, it turns out, happens to be pretty much exactly what Benford is.  It would be nice if Benford had elite shut-down skills, but that would only be a little icing on the cake.  What the Bills need is what he offers.  That means he's very valuable - and he's tough to replace.  The Bills took Elam to be a stud number 1 corner in the Bills system, and they found out how hard it is to find the right guy in the draft.  They happened to find the right guy several rounds later.  

 

Unless they're being dumb and making a mistake, teams that need a shut-down corner won't pay Benford at the top of the market.  He'll find that out when he shops himself (his agent is already doing it, informally).  But even if the Bills have to pay top dollar to keep him, it wouldn't be a bad move, because he is exactly the guy they want and need at cornerback. It's really hard to compete at the top of the league if you don't have the players, and Benford is exactly the right player for the Bills' defense. 

[JaCrispy]

5 hours ago, uninja said:

I still don't think it's wise to give Benford $25m AAV, even after this.

Which means Beane will probably do it 😉

[DapperCam]

40 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

He wasn't terrible last year. 

Different sites have different values, but they all seem to agree he allowed ~120 passer rating when targeted and he wasn’t good in run support either. Especially for a contract year he was very bad. I suspect Father Time has caught up to him.

 

I was exaggerating a little bit, he will eventually sign for a team looking for veteran depth. I really doubt he will be a starting boundary CB this upcoming season though unless the starter is injured.

[ProcessTruster]

Beane will draft a couple corners this year, let Benford play his contract out, which he will need to do at a high level to get the $$ his agent wants.

 

Beane probably either lets him walk or does a L'Jarious Sneed on him like KC, tag him for a year, then trade him for a 3rd or something.   

 

Beane is not paying that position 25 per year in this defense.  Its just not happening, IMHO

[BigAl2526]

5 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

Teams can't afford paying every position $30 or $40 million a year and as you said, if I am paying for tickets, I wanna see a good product. When you have to let some good players go because you are paying DBs $30 million a year, then it isn't intriguing to the fan

The question is whether or not the league's salary cap will outpace what fans/advertisers are willing to play for the product.  When might that day come?  

 

[Einstein's Dog]

37 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, I left out your discussion about health, because that's kind of imponderable.  It's just very hard to know what his concussion risk is going forward.  

 

Shaw, I'm with you on Benford being good and extremely good piece as used by the Bills.

 

But the FO has to consider health issues when making this deal.  It's a huge risk to the organization. 

And it's a huge risk to Benford to turn down a large chunk of guaranteed money with his concussion history.

 

The health issue may be hard to quantify but the FO and Benford need to do it.

[biggerdaddynj]

Houston beat the Jets/Sauce Gardner and KC/Trent McDuffie from resetting the CB market and probably saved themselves a few million (as opposed to Cincy with Chase) because those two are also coming up for club options in 2026.

The Benford  contract situation is gonna be a real b***ch (worse than the Cook situation IMHO).  There are a few more important factors to consider aside from the level of his play (Benford’s metrics are “prett-tay, prett-tay good”).

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

He wasn't terrible last year. 

Douglas allowed a passer rating of 122 when targeted FWIW.

[mjt328]

2 hours ago, sven233 said:

Here's the thing about Benford for me.  I think he is really good.  His numbers are great.  The analytics are great.  He has good size and plays physical. 

 

All that said, I watch him and I never see "Best in the League" out of him.  No, I am not saying others view him as the best in the league by any measure, but I think that is my point.  The numbers say he is in the conversation, but the eye test to me says I don't see a shut down CB deserving of top dollar like he is probably going to get.  He is very good at covering guys down the sidelines and in zone.  In fact, I will say he is elite at those things.  But where my issue with him is when he is lined up against WRs that are great slant runners and when other teams get him running across the field on drag routes.  I've seen him get abused on slants, drags, and crossers and it is because he is not a quick twitch guy and doesn't have top end speed to recover when he does get beat cleanly.  I will say those routes are hard to cover no matter who you are, but there are those guys that just can throw a blanket over the entire field no matter who they are covering and what routes they are covering even when being asked to do it in mostly man situations.  Our scheme plays to Benford's strengths, as it should, but because of that he is not asked to play primarily man coverage for most snaps like other teams ask some of these other top CBs to do against the top WRs in the league.  He also very rarely has been asked to travel with a top WR and cover them for an entire game.  The Bills primarily ask him to line up on his side and whoever the other team throws over there is the guy he covers.  He's not being asked to find WR1 and just shadow him for entire games like the top shut down CBs many times do.

 

Now I don't want this to look like I am bashing the guy.  I am absolutely not doing that.  I think Benford is a top CB in this league.  Borderline top 5 even.  I guess the only point I am trying to make is that I'm struggling to give him money like Stingley just got because I don't view him in the same class as he is.  I think he's great and our scheme has played to his strengths which is obviously important.  I guess the question I have is if you swapped Benford for a guy like Stingley on a different team if he would have the same success in a different system.  If he was forced to be a true lockdown CB in a man to man system, could he do it consistently?  I'm just not sure he could.  But, I know Stingley would still be a shut down CB here.

 

Finally, how can you not think about his health.  Two concussions to close out the year last season and he has missed other important games because of injury as well.  I'm not a doctor and obviously we don't have access to his medical records, but these things are hard to ignore.  I have no doubt that the Bills are going to pay him at some point because he is a very good player, but I am not sure I would be in a hurry to do so.  He's not going to reset the market like Stingley did.  At this point, I think no matter how good he plays next season, we know there the CB market ceiling is at.  So, even if he has the best season of his career next season, and I hope he does, the difference might be in paying him $23-$24 million next season compared to $20-$22 million this season.  I think making sure he can play with the concussions and injury history to see if he can play a full season before you drop a huge contract on him might be worth that extra couple of million he gets next season by waiting.

The Bills have proven they can find and develop good to solid CBs pretty easily.

Tre White, Taron Johnson, Levi Wallace, Dane Jackson, Christian Benford.

 

Jamarcus Ingram has looked promising in limited action, and may have a shot landing a starting job this year. 

Daequan Hardy was very good in preseason last year, and could eventually turn into something.

 

Even Kaiir Elam was solid when he actually got on the field.  I'm convinced that if Buffalo was forced to play him more often, he would have proven to be at least a serviceable starter on the outside.

 

No matter how much I like Benford, I really think Beane needs to factor this into contract negotiations.  Why sign him to a monster contract, when our coaching staff can seemingly turn Day 3 picks and UDFAs into starting caliber defensive backs?  Use the high picks and money on positions that we can't get right (D-Line) and hope to get lucky.

 

[ProcessTruster]

1 hour ago, BigAl2526 said:

The question is whether or not the league's salary cap will outpace what fans/advertisers are willing to play for the product.  When might that day come?  

 

maybe this is what you meant, the salary cap is itself largely determined by what fans, by their viewing habits, will drive advertisers, and by extension, the TV networks/streamers to pay the NFL for the rights to televise games. .   the salary cap is a derivative of the revenue recieved by the league for broadcast rights, period.  YOu and I watch less, the advertisers, and therefore the networks will then pay less and vice versa.

 

The salary cap per team is roughy the sum of the leagues TV network broadcast rights revenue divided by 32 (teams).   The calc is not that simple anymore, but that is essentially it.   this is why the league is bringing in Amazon and Peacock and Netflix , they will pay more than the old tv networks will , increasing the pot being divided by 32.  and making the season 18 games, etc etc. ... further  increases the numerator

 

Stadium ticket revenue is split by the two teams playing the game, if memory serves (that's why Ralph was pushed so hard to build a bigger better stadium with higher ticket prices-- the other owners hated playing the Bills at the Ralph as it was a low revenue game) 

Edited 6 hours ago by ProcessTruster

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

He wasn't terrible last year. 

 

Oh he was. He was horrible.