Is McD compensating for Beane Part #2?

[hondo in seattle]

For me the OP's chart looks about right.  Beane gives McD a good roster, but one not quite good enough for the SB.   

 

[White Linen]

2 hours ago, DJB said:

Tyler Huntley was a Pro Bowler.

 

Let’s not get worked up over this. 

 

We must afford Gunner the opportunity to use a bunch of tangled words to blame Beane.  

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

Doesn’t that make it low key kind of worse?

 

Yes, when McD's defense still sucked with pro bowler Edmunds.

[harmonkillebrew]

Josh is the great equalizer.

Beane and McD would both be unemployed if not for Josh. 

In the offseason we blame Beane for not seeing the flaws in the roster and making more impactful moves.

During the season we blame McD for horrible situational football, conservative playcalling and bonehead decisions. 

 

But both guys have had their moments, don't get me wrong.  

Beane needs to nail this draft b/c FA already looks like a bust. 

And McD needs to get his Defense corrected

2 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Both things are true.  Beane hasn't brought in enough elite talent around Josh and Mcd is prone to getting outclassed by the best coaches in the league. 

 

I think while we lack very high end talent we're full near the top of the league in good players.  Groot is an example.   Good to very good, not elite.  A bit hard to explain,  requires a bit of nuance.   In madden terms we have a lot of guys in the 80's but few in the 90's.

Strong, solid all around roster with good depth.

But not the elite talent to get us over the top.  Combined with sub-par game day coaching and that's why it might be some time until we best KC.

 

Unfortunately this FA is shaping up like a typical Beane FA, where we add good depth with solid, cost-effective signings, but didn't add a difference maker. Beane has taken two real swings - trading a 1st for Diggs and signing Von Miller - one worked out pretty good, the other didn't. Makes me worry his gun shy and more focused on keeping us good but not great. 

[Mikie2times]

57 minutes ago, Einstein said:

Question for all: If Howie Roseman was our GM, would McDermott have a Super Bowl by now?

My answer: Absolutely.

How you answer that question may help you realize how much of the blame you put on GM and how much you put on the coach.

 

Then again, Howie Roseman is a savant. He has 2 Super Bowls in the past 5 years with 2 different headaches and 2 different QB's, one of which was a backup.


 

 

This is another look that I think says a lot. This is all the teams last year that won at least 9 games. Then I looked at how many points they had per win. So in theory, the fewer points per win, the more you're overachieving. The more points per win, the more you're underachieving.

 

 

Now does that work perfectly? Absolutely not. But does it work directionally? Sure it does and what you notice quickly is we look a lot closer to the top 3-4 teams on that chart (over achievers) than the bottom 3-4 teams (under achievers) from a talent perspective. But we look closer to the bottom teams on the chart from a win/loss perspective (over the last few years). 

 

Philadelphia: 38 points

Baltimore: 39 points

Detroit: 34 points 

 

These teams are far ahead of our roster. Throw KC into the mix at 25 points. 

 

Roseman, Veach, DeCosta, Lynch, and Holmes are ahead of just about everybody else from a talent build perspective.  We have JA17, but when you have to deal with any of these teams and for us that means Baltimore and KC, we are behind the 8 ball. The thing I think that we really need to understand more is how far somebody like Beane is from replacement level. Beane looks like he's anywhere from 6-10 out of all GM's, but 6-10 looks a long ways away from what 1-5 looks like. Is 6-10 more or less replaceable compared to the top 15? Are we good with permanent run it back if this is what is actually happening? 

 

Edited yesterday at 02:05 AM by Mikie2times

[NoSaint]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

So I do, and long have, fallen more on the side of we lack elite difference makers rather than "our coaches are the problem." Ultimately players are more important than coaches, always have been, always will be. 

 

However, it is fair to say that there are always two parts to pro bowl, all pro, top 100 type recognition and that is usage as well as talent. Again I lean to the latter being more important than the former but im setting the context for the discussion I think it is important to put that out there.

there’s also a reality that I think McDermott gives a lot of input on a 1st round defender

[Nihilarian]

Buffalo has been in the playoffs every season since McD/ Beane since 2017, 7 of 8 seasons.  Three 13-win seasons and 5 division titles. Pretty GD consistent, IMHO.

 

Usually, drafting in the later rounds every year, and the one thing that defines a great GM is his ability to find a franchise QB! This QB didn't fall into his lap because of an early draft slot. Beane traded up many times to draft Josh Allen!  Then, when the majority of this board and the talking heads were all so certain that the more accurate Josh Rosen was the better QB draft choice. Beane got his guy, and what a guy he is, the best QB in the NFL!

 

The next more important positions are the LT/offensive line to protect that franchise QB, and Buffalo currently has one of the very best O lines in the NFL with good depth I might add. 

 

Jeez, if not for the defensive injuries and a boneheaded DC calling the wrong old-fashioned defensive scheme, this team would have probably been to the SB more than once in the last few years. The last two season-ending games ended by 3 points each. 

 

Brandon Beane swung for the fences when he signed a supreme pass rusher like Von Miller to a huge contract, and it's certainly not the GM's fault that Von suffered such a horrific injury. 

 

So much of getting to a Super Bowl also depends on just having some freaking good luck. And getting by the stinking Kansas City Chiefs, who have been the most winning team in the NFL the past five years, and the Buffalo Bills have been the second winningest team. 

 

Sure, by all means, criticize whine piss B word and moan about not getting to a SB yet. It's not like this HC/GM hasn't made changes in attempting to better the team every year. Changing DC's, OC's players, coaches and even the trainer. 

 

Unlike the 90s Super Bowl teams, this regime didn't inherit a generational pass rusher who leads the NFL in sacks. 

 

Lastly, if Howie Rossman were the GM of a team in the AFC, I have my doubts he would get by the Chiefs, save perhaps this past season.

 

Just my 2 cents. 

[Jimmy Harris 69]

The Wacky world of Terry Pegula is responsible for the disconnect between Beane and McDermott. They both answer to Pegula, unlike other organizations where the coach answers to the gm. So Howie Roseman would not have a guaranteed SB here because he couldn’t order McDermott to hire a certain DC or OC the way he did in Philly this past year. I have long believed McDermott has his favorites and often they are less talented athletes: Hamlin, Spector, Klein. He kept James Cook on the bench in year one. Thirteen seconds was his cowardice and poor coaching in the clutch. Could Beane hit on some more draft picks, sure. Too often McDermott has victory within his grasp but it slips out; like a waiter with a large tray filled with entrees and just as he gets to the table he stumbles. All those fillets on the floor and a plate of spaghetti on your grandmothers head.

Edited yesterday at 02:30 AM by Jimmy Harris 69

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

It's weird.

 

I would say that McD consistently has the defense playing above it's talent level in the regular season. 

 

HOWEVER, he consistently has the defense playing well below it's talent level in the playoffs. 5 straight playoff losses where the DEF looks like one of the worst in history. 

[Doc Brown]

4 hours ago, DJB said:

Tyler Huntley was a Pro Bowler.

 

Let’s not get worked up over this. 

I was wondering that.  Do they include alternates in the pro bowl numbers?

[Mikie2times]

13 minutes ago, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

It's weird.

 

I would say that McD consistently has the defense playing above it's talent level in the regular season. 

 

HOWEVER, he consistently has the defense playing well below its talent level in the playoffs. 5 straight playoff losses where the DEF looks like one of the worst in history. 

It’s not to say McD is perfect either. In fact I would probably rate them somewhat similar. McD has certainly had some fairly horrifying moments in the playoffs.
 

But to get to your answer, what McD does better than anybody is build defenses that force turnovers. Which is a really big deal. He might be the best and most consistent at this in the NFL. Lower performing regular season teams will be impacted by this more. His defense is also much more vulnerable to the run can the pass, which rarely matters in the regular season as we are much more likely to

jump ahead and make teams one dimensional.
 

So my current theory is in the postseason its not a talented roster falling apart. It’s more a roster with a ton of shortcoming finally getting exposed. McD can hide it in the regular season, but he’s just not good enough to do so as we get deeper in the playoffs. I’m not sure how many would be good enough to do so either. 

[Doc Brown]

3 hours ago, BuffAlone said:

Not an excuse,but drafting at 25-30 every single year,you can hit or miss easily. Overall, Beane is pretty good. A better GM than talent evaluator at times,but name me a better GM the last 20 years that's called Buffalo home? When your very first draft pick is JA17,you have some leeway

This is pry the main reason for a lot of good players but not many elite one's.  Picking late in all the rounds every year hasn't exactly helped Beane acquire elite talent.  I'm not absolving him of all responsibility (we could've had Metcalf twice now) but It's one of the downsides of missing the playoffs only once in eight years.  Although, even when we had a top 10 pick (besides trading up for Allen) we chose Ed Oliver over D-lineman like Wilkins, Simmons, Lawrence, and Burns.  

[Kelly to Allen]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

 

This is another look that I think says a lot. This is all the teams last year that won at least 9 games. Then I looked at how many points they had per win. So in theory, the fewer points per win, the more you're overachieving. The more points per win, the more you're underachieving.

 

 

Now does that work perfectly? Absolutely not. But does it work directionally? Sure it does and what you notice quickly is we look a lot closer to the top 3-4 teams on that chart (over achievers) than the bottom 3-4 teams (under achievers) from a talent perspective. But we look closer to the bottom teams on the chart from a win/loss perspective (over the last few years). 

 

Philadelphia: 38 points

Baltimore: 39 points

Detroit: 34 points 

 

These teams are far ahead of our roster. Throw KC into the mix at 25 points. 

 

Roseman, Veach, DeCosta, Lynch, and Holmes are ahead of just about everybody else from a talent build perspective.  We have JA17, but when you have to deal with any of these teams and for us that means Baltimore and KC, we are behind the 8 ball. The thing I think that we really need to understand more is how far somebody like Beane is from replacement level. Beane looks like he's anywhere from 6-10 out of all GM's, but 6-10 looks a long ways away from what 1-5 looks like. Is 6-10 more or less replaceable compared to the top 15? Are we good with permanent run it back if this is what is actually happening? 

 

 

 

If what you're saying is true than how did we destroy Detroit and control the ravens. 

 

I said before that the bills roster was slightly better than Baltimore. That was proven true 

 

It was also proven true in the opposite direction of the criticism leading up to the game. That the bills front wasn't talented/ strong enough to deal with Henry 

 

Henry had 9/21 in the first half. Oliver and Jones were abusing the Baltimore oline. 

 

It also was a game where Allen was a game manager and simply didn't make any mistakes. In other words it was the talent around Allen that had a solid contributing factor in the victory. Obviously Allen has an effect on the game that's not measured in the numbers necessarily but you understand my point. We didn't win because of a classic Allen performance....

 

Baltimore eventually figured some things out, and they made mistakes, much of which was caused by the bills. But buffalo controlled that football game. 

 

I agree with you on the 53 outside of the qb that Phili is a standard higher in talent. But I also believe we would've matched up way better vs Philadelphia. Kc to me is a coaching mismatch 

 

I'm confused about what you mean by "points per win"??

 

Are you saying points scored on avg in games won?

 

Or are you talking about avg point differential in wins?

 

Or the sum total of points in just wins?

 

Dvoa would seem to be a better tool by cross referencing more data. 

 

It is interesting tho. Like you said it's not perfect but is directional in how many would view the rosters 

 

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 03:31 AM by Kelly to Allen

[DJB]

8 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I was wondering that.  Do they include alternates in the pro bowl numbers?

I mean I’ve never seen anyone described as “Pro bowl alternate” before . 
 

Otherwise I’m unsure 

[Mikie2times]

8 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I was wondering that.  Do they include alternates in the pro bowl numbers?

Yes, they include alternates. Which add to the depth of the number of entries. Cook and McGovern were on this list for 2024 (as an example).

2 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

 

If what you're saying is true than how did we destroy Detroit and control the ravens. 

 

I said before that the bills roster was slightly better than Baltimore. That was proven true 

 

It was also proven true in the opposite direction of the criticism leading up to the game. That the bills front wasn't talented/ strong enough to deal with Henry 

 

Henry had 9/21 in the first half. Oliver and Jones were abusing the Baltimore oline. 

 

It also was a game where Allen was a game manager and simply didn't make any mistakes. In other words it was the talent around Allen that had a solid contributing factor in the victory. Obviously Allen has an effect on the game that's not measured in the numbers necessarily but you understand my point. We didn't win because of a classic Allen performance....

 

Baltimore eventually figured some things out, and they made mistakes, much of which was caused by the bills. But buffalo controlled that football game. 

 

I agree with you on the 53 outside of the qb that Phili is a standard higher in talent. 

 

I'm confused about what you mean by "points per win"??

 

Are you saying points scored on avg in games won?

 

Or are you talking about avg point differential in wins?

 

Or the sum total of points in just wins?

 

Dvoa would seem to be a better tool by cross referencing more data. 

 

It is interesting tho. Like you said it's not perfect but is directional in how many would view the rosters 

 

 

 

 

The Lions had half the team out when we played and you’re probably the only person even on this forum that thinks we have a better roster than the Ravens. We also have the league MVP at QB which tends to make up for a little talent deficiency.  

[Kelly to Allen]

6 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

This is pry the main reason for a lot of good players but not many elite one's.  Picking late in all the rounds every year hasn't exactly helped Beane acquire elite talent.  I'm not absolving him of all responsibility (we could've had Metcalf twice now) but It's one of the downsides of missing the playoffs only once in eight years.  Although, even when we had a top 10 pick (besides trading up for Allen) we chose Ed Oliver over D-lineman like Wilkins, Simmons, Lawrence, and Burns.  

 

Maybe I'm a homer or seeing things others aren't but id take Oliver over all those guys doc

4 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Yes, they include alternates. Which add to the depth of the number of entries. Cook and McGovern were on this list for 2024 (as an example).

The Lions had half the team out when we played and you’re probably the only person even on this forum that thinks we have a better roster than the Ravens. We also have the league MVP at QB which tends to make up for a little talent deficiency.  

 

 

This is a common misconception that when we played the lions that they were very injured... this is not true the only player that was of substantial loss

that was missing was Hutchinson who was already replaced with zadarius Smith...they had their full secondary , Jack Campbell was healthy. I believe they traded for a linebacker a month prior that was already integrated to the system. they weren't missing all kinds of players when we played them.

Edited yesterday at 03:36 AM by Kelly to Allen

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

Maybe I'm a homer or seeing things others aren't but id take Oliver over all those guys doc

 

 

This is a common misconception that when we play the lions that they were very injured this is not true the only player that was substance that was missing was a notching who was already replaced with ciderius Smith they had their full secondary Jack Campbell I believe they traded for a linebacker a month prior that was already integrated to the system they weren't missing all kinds of players when we played them

No it’s not, I’ve already looked it up about 8 times. 

[Doc Brown]

Just now, Mikie2times said:

Yes, they include alternates. Which add to the depth of the number of entries. Cook and McGovern were on this list for 2024 (as an example).

I understand Pro Bowl voting is the only way to include both the all pros and the very good players but I just can't stand how the voting works for it.  Roger Saffold for example may have been the worst guard we started since Allen got here and he made the pro bowl that year.  Just wish we had a better way of encompassing all the very good and elite players.

3 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

Maybe I'm a homer or seeing things others aren't but id take Oliver over all those guys doc

Maybe?

[Kelly to Allen]

5 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

No it’s not, I’ve already looked it up about 8 times. 

 

 

Looked what up?

 

The only starter missing from Detroit was Hutchinson. I believe anzalone was out too

4 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

I understand Pro Bowl voting is the only way to include both the all pros and the very good players but I just can't stand how the voting works for it.  Roger Saffold for example may have been the worst guard we started since Allen got here and he made the pro bowl that year.  Just wish we had a better way of encompassing all the very good and elite players.

Maybe?

 

 

By eye test alone Oliver is better 

 

But if you were to add up all the sacks, tfl, pressures, total tackles, pff grades etc. I'd be willing to bet Oliver would be very high among the top dts in the NFL. 

 

 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 03:41 AM by Kelly to Allen

[Doc Brown]

5 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

By eye test alone Oliver is better 

 

But if you were to add up all the sacks, tfl, pressures, total tackles, pff grades etc. I'd be willing to bet Oliver would be very high among the top dts in the NFL. 

[Kelly to Allen]

16 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Yes, they include alternates. Which add to the depth of the number of entries. Cook and McGovern were on this list for 2024 (as an example).

The Lions had half the team out when we played and you’re probably the only person even on this forum that thinks we have a better roster than the Ravens. We also have the league MVP at QB which tends to make up for a little talent deficiency.  

 

 

The bills qb is better than Baltimore 

The RB room is deeper, and cook can do more things as a reciver than Henry 

The bills oline is better 

Our tes are more talented although it's close.

Our wrs were better especially with no zay flowers playing 

 

Dlineman is close. Probably a tie last year. Buffalo had better linebacker talent when Milano was back. 

 

The secondary was close but Baltimore has the edge with Humphrey and Hamilton. 

2 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

 

Are you suggesting Oliver is not one of the most explosive 3tech in the NFL? 

 

Wilkins isn't even in his tier of talent. He's just not

Edited yesterday at 03:47 AM by Kelly to Allen