Beane is the MVP

[Mikie2times]

47 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I'm giving credit to the entire brain trust that's put together a good roster prior to Josh and around Josh. Could it be better in some respects? Yes. But it this a 5 win team without Josh? No. I also think you craft a different roster when you draft in the mid 20's and lower year after year while also having a big chunk of your cap occupied by a QB contract. 

 

Without Josh this team also has a lot more cap space to spread around. When you have a QB on a massive contract that changes the complexion of the roster because Josh's 40-50 million cap number is a number that can produce 3-5 starters. Then of course you have the multiplier impact of drafting lower. 

I said we wouldn’t make the playoffs. I didn’t say we would be a 5 win team. Be careful trying to argue that our GM is elite, HC is elite, and we have an MVP QB. All three can’t be true or we would have multiple trophies. 

[billsfan89]

1 hour ago, Mikie2times said:

I said we wouldn’t make the playoffs. I didn’t say we would be a 5 win team. Be careful trying to argue that our GM is elite, HC is elite, and we have an MVP QB. All three can’t be true or we would have multiple trophies. 

 

Fair enough on the point that we wouldn't make the playoffs although I would argue if you had an average starting QB plus 20-30 million more in cap space the team could win 10 games and make the playoffs. But we can agree to disagree on that front. As far as are all three elite? Hard to say it does take a lot of luck to win a title but then it is a catch 22 as you say then why doesn't this team have at least one title? 

[Jrb1979]

7 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Fair enough on the point that we wouldn't make the playoffs although I would argue if you had an average starting QB plus 20-30 million more in cap space the team could win 10 games and make the playoffs. But we can agree to disagree on that front. As far as are all three elite? Hard to say it does take a lot of luck to win a title but then it is a catch 22 as you say then why doesn't this team have at least one title? 

While luck does play a part, you also need elite playmakers to win as well. As good as Beane is at finding good players to fill holes in Free Agency and McDermott is at getting the most out of his players. The one are they haven't done as good as Super Bowl winning teams at is finding elite playmakers in the draft. 

 

They find good to great starters with amazing culture but that only gets you so far. 

[TheWeatherMan]

Beane - JA17 = unemployed 

[BigDingus]

He gets an A++++ for finally getting rid of Elam & actually getting more than a Taco Bell coupon code in return. 

 

On the other hand, huge F for even drafting him in the first place...

[SoTier]

14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Beane badly needs to nail these signings to show he has improved wrt pro personnel decisions.   If this class is a bust.........I gotta' say it........it's a fireable offense.   And I am far from his biggest critic.   I thought he was getting wiser but this class looks like a big investment in a bunch of guys who all need to be better than they were last year to justify.   It's hard to get *same* results but paying money that clearly anticipates BETTER production is not a formula for success in FA.

 

He's laid out a lot of money for Palmer, Hoecht, Bosa and Ogunjobi.   Probably, collectively, double the aav they were expected to get on the market and that impacts future caps even though some people can't grasp the idea because they are fooled by the "1 year deal" aspect.   Cap money spent now is cap money that could have been rolled over and therefore it is less that can be spent later.

 

That's why Beane's horrendous 2018 spending spree limited his flexibility in the early 2020's.  It wasn't the covid year cap reduction that people tried to blame.   Every team had to deal with that and contract values were depressed commensurately.  It was horrendous signings like giving Star Lotuelei a 5 year $50M deal........and eventually paying out over $40M of that for 2 and a half seasons of mediocrity.......when Star was projected to get a 1 year $4M deal after a bad year in Carolina.  That 2018 class was over $100M invested in garbage at a time when the cap was just $177M.

 

Beane doesn't have a good track record with these type of deals that look like over-pays.   I'm quite surprised he's put his neck out there like this for this group.   So they'd better hit.🤞

 

I'm going to be kind and call your first paragraph hyperbole.   Maybe if you were the Bills owner, you would fire him, but Terry Pegula won't.   I seriously doubt that any current NFL owner would do that.   In 2018, Beane was a first time GM without a lot of hands-on personnel management experience.  He was also scrambling to fill a roster that was seriously lacking in NFL caliber talent (except for a handful of 2nd year players drafted by McDermott in 2017) for an organization that had a reputation as being second-rate at best.

 

Fast forward seven years, and Beane is considered one of the best GMs in the NFL having built a perennial Super Bowl contender, drafted the NFL MVP, and remade the Bills reputation into one of the best run organizations in the NFL.  Terry Pegula is not firing Beane for missing on some modestly priced FAs that's assuming that said modestly priced FAs all fail.   Beane didn't "put his neck out there" at all. 

 

13 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

I don’t think we are a playoff team if you replace Allen with a QB in the 15-25 range in the league. So it’s sort of hard to get on this Beane is a witch fanboy club. We are completely deprived of top talent outside of Allen. That’s on him. 

 

Another TSW GM wannabe full of hyperbole.  The Bills are certainly not "completely deprived of top talent outside of Allen".  The Bills have one of the best OLs in the NFL.  They have one of the best OLs in the NFL.  James Cook is one of the most explosive RBs, a threat to score every time he carries or catches the ball.  Shakir was second in the NFL in YAC.  Benford is one of the top young CBs in the NFL.  More importantly, collecting a few big name stars doesn't make a good team.  See the perennial basket case NY Jests.

 

FTR, Daniel Jones recently signed for $14 million, so you are talking about backup/low end starter QBs.  Not many teams, including the Chiefs and Eagles, would make the playoffs with such a low end signal caller.   Put a decent franchise level QB on the Bills like Darnold or Goff, and the Bills would remain a playoff contender.

 

 

 

[uticaclub]

9 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Beane - JA17 = unemployed 

He'd still find work. He'd get another shot or two at GM and then other FO gigs around the league but without finding another Josh he won't see a winning season

6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

He gets an A++++ for finally getting rid of Elam & actually getting more than a Taco Bell coupon code in return. 

 

On the other hand, huge F for even drafting him in the first place...

Right, there's people patting him on the back for turning a 1st rounder into a 6th rounder

[Einstein]

9 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Beane - JA17 = unemployed 

I don’t know how anyone could disagree with this.

 

Without Allen, 40% of Beane’s first round picks aren’t even on the team anymore.

 

[turbo044]

Beane moving up to get JA17 in the draft = Beane employed indefinitely

[Gregg]

9 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

Beane - JA17 = unemployed 

 

Probably could say the same thing about McDermott. To be fair no GM/HC will look good without a QB. See Bill as an example of that when he went from the GOAT to Jones.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Einstein said:

I don’t know how anyone could disagree with this.

 

Without Allen, 40% of Beane’s first round picks aren’t even on the team anymore.

 

He would be employed in some capacity in the NFL, but the Bills would’ve cleaned house long ago if Allen and Mayfield went top 3 in that draft. 

[SoTier]

50 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

He would be employed in some capacity in the NFL, but the Bills would’ve cleaned house long ago if Allen and Mayfield went top 3 in that draft. 

 

With Darnold in that 2018 draft, Beane had no worries.  The Jests just can't say "no" to USC QBs.

[BarleyNY]

11 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

With Darnold in that 2018 draft, Beane had no worries.  The Jests just can't say "no" to USC QBs.

Lol. Good point 

[NewEra]

I think he’s done a very good job so far this offseason.  I was hoping we’d be able to snag one of the top edge rushers- as it turns out- none of them were really available (I don’t think Hendrickson would’ve been traded to Buffalo).  Sweat is solid, but dude had 8.5 sacks on a stacked DL.  Is he really that good?  He joined his old coach in Az, so I don’t think he was so much of a possibility unless we overpaid.  
 

Considering what was available, I think we did great with Bosas deal.  Sure, he could get injured and be a wash, but it would only affect us for a year.

 

Hoecht seems like an overpay to many based on what he’s accomplished…. But he could easily outperform that contract.   I think he’s going to be a favorite amongst us. 

 
LAAAAAARRRRRRY seems like a bit of an overpay, but again, 1 year.  Not so bad. Most of us want a big space eater, but McD wants DTs that can move, not behemoths that can’t rush. Larry can get some pressure. 
 

I expect Beane to draft Bosas and Larry’s heir apparents.. When they leave next year, they’ll be ready to go next year- if not earlier.  

Palmer gets open. He can get deep.  He plays on the outside.  He has good hands.  He’s a great kid.  He’s not a burner, but that can still be added.  Love the signing even if it may be an overpay at the moment.  
 

love me some Ty Johnson.  2.5M is a nice deal for what he brings to our team. 
 

Forrest looks like a diamond in the rough.  Love this signing.

 

bringing Damar back can’t hurt.  Haven’t seen the money, but I don’t expect it to be much.  

 

Losing Mack hurts me a lot.  Really bummed we lost him, but I figured someone would pay him more than we’d be willing to pay.  Really sucks that it’s a division opponent.  We’re going to miss his blocking and low key Sr skills.

 

we need a corner-  I expect us to sign Dane Jackson or Rasul and draft someone.  That may be a mistake if the draftee isn’t capable of starting this season.  Whomever is playing opposite Benford will be attacked-  they need to be able to play. I hope we can land Samuel, but I expect him to be paid more than we can afford

 

ill give our offseason a B+ at the moment.  We were just 15M over the cap and have given out over 40M in contracts.  

 

 

 

[Rocky Landing]

Beane may not be an "elite GM" (whatever that means...), and McDermott may not be an elite HC (although, I see improvement every season), but I will say this: The two make an excellent team. That's not something every team in the NFL can boast. From the moment they arrived at OBD, they have consistently been on the same page, and that has paid dividends. (Who here remembers the contentious relationships between Nix/Whaley, and the revolving door of head coaches from the drought era?) Just taking last season as an example, The Bills' defense outperformed expectations with a roster built on-the-cheap with personnel that fit into a shared vision. You can't overstate the value in that.

[Casey D]

Some of the takes here are ridiculous.  Beane and McDermott have taken a laughing-stock franchise that no one wanted to play for and turned it into a perennial contender that attracts players who want to come to Buffalo. No, they have not won it all yet, but you need to be really good first and then get some good fortune and luck to win it all.  The Bills are really good-- they need some luck.  But instead of attacking Beane/McDermott, people should be grateful for what they have given Buffalo and Bills fans.  Peoples' memories are too short.

 

 

[Rocky Landing]

7 hours ago, Einstein said:

I don’t know how anyone could disagree with this.

 

Without Allen, 40% of Beane’s first round picks aren’t even on the team anymore.

 

Which isn't as bad as one might think.

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2024/04/25/first-round-draft-hit-rates-tracking-rates-from-the-best-centers-to-the-worst-wrs/73449048007/#:~:text=Just 21 of the 77,with 26 of 56 hitting.

[Einstein]

39 minutes ago, Rocky Landing said:

Which isn't as bad as one might think.

https://draftwire.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/draft/2024/04/25/first-round-draft-hit-rates-tracking-rates-from-the-best-centers-to-the-worst-wrs/73449048007/#:~:text=Just 21 of the 77,with 26 of 56 hitting.

According to your article 43% is average.

So he would be below average...

[Rocky Landing]

53 minutes ago, Einstein said:

According to your article 43% is average.

So he would be below average...

You said "40% of Beane’s first round picks aren’t even on the team anymore," which (let me do some quick calculating here...) would mean that 60% are on the team. The article says that 43% is average. But, if you look at the article, the positions that they have targeted in the first round would have an even lower average than that.

 

Math

[Mikie2times]

4 hours ago, Casey D said:

Some of the takes here are ridiculous.  Beane and McDermott have taken a laughing-stock franchise that no one wanted to play for and turned it into a perennial contender that attracts players who want to come to Buffalo. No, they have not won it all yet, but you need to be really good first and then get some good fortune and luck to win it all.  The Bills are really good-- they need some luck.  But instead of attacking Beane/McDermott, people should be grateful for what they have given Buffalo and Bills fans.  Peoples' memories are too short.

 

 

What I remember is a revolving door at QB for nearly two decades. We have had drought era teams with more talent than this version of the Bills. This thread is “Beane is MVP”. I never said he was bad. But as I said earlier, this notion that we have an MVP at QB and GM and HC is just a horrific fanboy take. I’m a fan of this team, it doesn’t mean I have to worship every element of it.
 

Beane has drafted solid talent, but we have by far the least top 100, All Pro, and Pro Bowl players of any team in football that is in the playoff hunt with any degree of consistency. Which is several. That’s not my opinion either, do the math yourself if you’re decent in excel. Past the draft our FA strategy around DT, WR, and DB post Hyde and Poyer has been a literal disaster. I imagine LB will be soon to follow, likely TE, and we will triple down on WR as we likely pursue the next Kelvin Benjamin. So whatever credit he gets, it sort of washes out to a near break even with neglect of these areas. Which get exposed every post season as we get deeper in and then it gets washed away with “luck” by so many of you.

 

If we can’t stop the run next year because we didn’t add a real space eating DT and we have 2LB’s that that look like WR’s. If we can’t deliver in high leverage because CB’s are stuck to our WR’s. If we can’t get offenses off the field because our Safteys and Corners can’t get it done. I’m not calling that bad luck, but you can.