Beane is the MVP

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Its a damn good take, he has missed more than hit on 1st and 2nd rounders.  There are several draft picks not even on this team.

Luckily, his biggest hit was Josh Allen and the moves it took to get him is still his greatest accomplishment to date.  How much does Allen weigh while examining his day 1 and 2 picks.  I can't simply say Allen was a hit and Elam was a bust so they cancel each other out.  On the other hand you can say that Cody Ford was a bust but Spencer Brown was a hit.  I would say he's been at least average on day 1 and 2 but above average on day 3.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

3 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

I can already taste the Lombardi

 

What's it taste like, chicken or fish?

[ngbills]

28 minutes ago, JerseyBills said:

Rebuild? 

We were a play away from the SB. 

 

 

24 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

All the more reason to add some elite talent. 

We are an elite player or two away from the super bowl. Can we do it with Josh playing super hero and a lot of good players? Maybe. But imagine if instead of a Deonte Harty or Curtis Samuel types they got Barkley or Henry. What if they found a way to get Danielle Hunter? The doubles are nice and all, but to win it all may take a home run. 

[todd]

39 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

 

This isn't one of those drafts. If he doesn't make a splash move, then he MUST draft a serious DROY and/or OROY candidate if we have any hope of winning a SB the next two years. Ideally we need both like a Stroud/Anderson type of draft. That's going to be extremely difficult considering we pick at the end of each round.

While I would LOVE if that happened, I’m not sure I agree. 2024 was cleared a cap clearing year, and the bills still made the AFC championship game. 

[BullBuchanan]

17 minutes ago, todd said:

While I would LOVE if that happened, I’m not sure I agree. 2024 was cleared a cap clearing year, and the bills still made the AFC championship game. 

We didn't clear any real cap though. We're still at $27.6M dead money this year. They don't hand out trophies for making a conference championship. That's not my goal.

[todd]

10 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

We didn't clear any real cap though. We're still at $27.6M dead money this year. They don't hand out trophies for making a conference championship. That's not my goal.

My point is, the Bills shed players and talent in 2024. This is a fact. 

[BullBuchanan]

Just now, todd said:

My point is, the Bills shed players and talent in 2024. This is a fact. 

And we're doing the same this year. I'm not sure what point you're making. We need a major influx of talent if the goal is to realistically compete for a Super Bowl. If the goal is to just make the playoffs and lose, then by all means run it back.

[BananaB]

Beane is the most overrated person in this organization 

[hondo in seattle]

1 hour ago, Doc Brown said:

Luckily, his biggest hit was Josh Allen and the moves it took to get him is still his greatest accomplishment to date.  How much does Allen weigh while examining his day 1 and 2 picks.  I can't simply say Allen was a hit and Elam was a bust so they cancel each other out.  On the other hand you can say that Cody Ford was a bust but Spencer Brown was a hit.  I would say he's been at least average on day 1 and 2 but above average on day 3.

 

Drafting a QB is an imperfect art.  Bill Walsh drafted SB winner and HOFer, Joe Montana, then famously recommended the hugely disappointing Trent Edwards to Marv Levy.   In other words, there's some skill involved in drafting a QB, but there's also a large element of chance.  No GM can prognosticate a college QB's future in the NFL with precision.  

 

Beane hitting on Allen is kind of like this:  He did his due diligence.  He liked Josh.  But he knew from his knowledge of NFL history that no QB is a sure thing.  So, being a good Catholic, one night he prayed.  And St. Red Grange - patron saint of the NFL - appeared to him.  And the good saint proclaimed, "If you choose Allen, I'll let you roll this golden die.  If you roll a 6, Allen will become a generational talent and MVP.  If you roll a 1, he'll be an erratic bust you'll forever regret.  Any number in-between will give you a middling result."  

 

Big Baller Beane, hand dripping in nervous sweat, rolled the golden die. 

 

I give Beane credit for Allen but I'm not sure how much.  If you take Allen out of the picture, there might be a dozen GMs with a better draft record.  

 

And Bill Walsh would be a forgotten man with zero Lombardi's to his name if he was born a few years later and made Edwards his first big QB pick.  Lady Luck plays a huge role in this sport.  

 

Edited 5 hours ago by hondo in seattle

[Doc Brown]

1 minute ago, hondo in seattle said:

I give Beane credit for Allen but I'm not sure how much.  If you take Allen out of the picture, there might be a dozen GMs with a better draft record.  

 

And Bill Walsh would be a forgotten man with zero Lombardi's to his name if he was born a few years later and made Edwards his first big QB pick.  Lady Luck plays a huge role in this sport.  

Most GM's take Rosen there.  Taking Allen out of the picture is a dishonest assessment imo.

[Billsfed1]

42 minutes ago, BullBuchanan said:

And we're doing the same this year. I'm not sure what point you're making. We need a major influx of talent if the goal is to realistically compete for a Super Bowl. If the goal is to just make the playoffs and lose, then by all means run it back.

We were a play or two away from the SB this year and we’ve arguably improved at every position over the course of the past few days, minus the positions that haven’t been addressed ie. OL, CB, TE etc.  Surely some of those will be managed with draft picks of which we have ten.

 

I’ll say it again, beane has done a fantastic job thus far. He’s accomplished far more to this point than I thought he would have.

 

 

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Billsfed1

[SoTier]

4 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

And Im not going to debate the facts with someone that can't comprehend them. 

 

Fact: Elam was the only first round bust out of 6 shots in Beane's tenure.  The other 5 are all starters in the NFL even if not on the Bills.  

Fact: Ford and Basham were the only 2 second round busts out of 5 shots in Beane's tenure even if some on TSW have the pitchforks out for Epenesa.

 

About half of all first round picks don't become stars even if they aren't out right busts.  Maybe a quarter or third of second round picks become quality starters, and they usually take a couple of seasons to fully develop.

 

3 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

While QB is important, he can't do it all alone. Look at the Eagles. They had a great QB, but also had an elite RB, an elite WR. On defense they had a dominant DT and top CB. 

 

The Eagles won because their defense had a collective career day, and the Chiefs played their worst game of the entire season.  

 

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

Luckily, his biggest hit was Josh Allen and the moves it took to get him is still his greatest accomplishment to date.  How much does Allen weigh while examining his day 1 and 2 picks.  I can't simply say Allen was a hit and Elam was a bust so they cancel each other out.  On the other hand you can say that Cody Ford was a bust but Spencer Brown was a hit.  I would say he's been at least average on day 1 and 2 but above average on day 3.

 

Brown was a third rounder, which would put him on Day 2.  So I would say Day 2 and Day 3 have been above average.

 

"Difference makers" don't come along every day.   KC drafted Travis Kelce in 2013, Chris Jones and Tyreek Hill in 2016, and Patrick Mahomes and Kareem Hunt in 2017.  After that they got Nick Bolton, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith in 2021, and Trent McDuffie in 2022.   Most of their picks since they got Mahomes have been more of the "good/above average" guys about on a par with what the Bills have done in the draft. 

 

Again, like the Bills, they made their one move up for a QB pay off in spades.   That tops everything.

[Mr. WEO]

6 hours ago, Billsfed1 said:

Considering the Bills were like 15 mil over the cap a couple weeks ago despite the cap increase, it’s nothing short of incredible what he’s pulled off here.

 

To completely retain AND rebuild the team in 1 offseason almost seems impossible but somehow or another he’s managed. 

 

If this isn’t A+ for a manager…I don’t know what is.

 

 

Howie Roseman.

 

 

Anyway, retained and rebuilt?  Not really.  Sure he signed Josh, some starters and depth guys.  The "rebuild" has been his usual off season flurry of 1 year contracts for guys who have issues or are journeymen.  

 

[Doc Brown]

3 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Brown was a third rounder, which would put him on Day 2.  So I would say Day 2 and Day 3 have been above average.

 

"Difference makers" don't come along every day.   KC drafted Travis Kelce in 2013, Chris Jones and Tyreek Hill in 2016, and Patrick Mahomes and Kareem Hunt in 2017.  After that they got Nick Bolton, Creed Humphrey, and Trey Smith in 2021, and Trent McDuffie in 2022.   Most of their picks since they got Mahomes have been more of the "good/above average" guys about on a par with what the Bills have done in the draft. 

 

Again, like the Bills, they made their one move up for a QB pay off in spades.   That tops everything.

That's fair and Veach only has one more draft than Beane so it's a good comparison.  His first year of GM he moved up to draft Mahomes.  Beane's first year he moved up to get Allen.  Both are top 5 GM's imo when you look at their whole body of work (not just the draft).  There's more of a gap between Andy Reid and Sean McDermott though as we all know he's 0-4 against Reid in the playoffs and he got out coached in all four of them.  

[Billsfed1]

 

[L Ron Burgundy]

Not enough elite talent.   Assess the team without Josh.  We are not good without him.  Most teams aren't,  without their qb, but the best teams are.  Balt, Detroit, Philly (lost a lot of quality this offseason tho).   

 

1 more elite piece and we're there.  Cb, DT preferably imo.  

[thronethinker]

6 hours ago, DallasBillsFan1 said:

Beane needs to NAIL this draft.  Recent top picks have been marginal at best (Elam, Kincaid, Coleman) ... maybe a little early, but.  Would like us to have a SOLID draft.

 

I think Kinkaid had the injury hurt his year same with Coleman. Elam, well see ya!!

[BADOLBILZ]

 

Beane badly needs to nail these signings to show he has improved wrt pro personnel decisions.   If this class is a bust.........I gotta' say it........it's a fireable offense.   And I am far from his biggest critic.   I thought he was getting wiser but this class looks like a big investment in a bunch of guys who all need to be better than they were last year to justify.   It's hard to get *same* results but paying money that clearly anticipates BETTER production is not a formula for success in FA.

 

He's laid out a lot of money for Palmer, Hoecht, Bosa and Ogunjobi.   Probably, collectively, double the aav they were expected to get on the market and that impacts future caps even though some people can't grasp the idea because they are fooled by the "1 year deal" aspect.   Cap money spent now is cap money that could have been rolled over and therefore it is less that can be spent later.

 

That's why Beane's horrendous 2018 spending spree limited his flexibility in the early 2020's.  It wasn't the covid year cap reduction that people tried to blame.   Every team had to deal with that and contract values were depressed commensurately.  It was horrendous signings like giving Star Lotuelei a 5 year $50M deal........and eventually paying out over $40M of that for 2 and a half seasons of mediocrity.......when Star was projected to get a 1 year $4M deal after a bad year in Carolina.  That 2018 class was over $100M invested in garbage at a time when the cap was just $177M.

 

Beane doesn't have a good track record with these type of deals that look like over-pays.   I'm quite surprised he's put his neck out there like this for this group.   So they'd better hit.🤞

[2020 Our Year For Sure]

6 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Beane doesn't have a good track record with these type of deals that look like over-pays.   I'm quite surprised he's put his neck out there like this for this group.   So they'd better hit.🤞

Allen will just carry Beane and make him look good like he does every year. Beane has it made in the shade. The team will always be "successful" with #17.

[Mikie2times]

I don’t think we are a playoff team if you replace Allen with a QB in the 15-25 range in the league. So it’s sort of hard to get on this Beane is a witch fanboy club. We are completely deprived of top talent outside of Allen. That’s on him.