Bills Sign WR Josh Palmer 3-$36M

[ColoradoBills]

17 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

So my question there is why Palmer wasn’t more productive. He was on a team desperately looking for WR help for McConkey and analytics shows him to be an excellent separator. Hebert is far from a slouch at QB. So why the lack of production?

 

Palmer last year was behind McConkey and Johnston.  Johnston is a 1st round pick and had half again as many targets than Palmer.

Josh was relegated to WR3.

Beane and the Bills evidently feel he can do a lot more with Allen and Brady's offense.  I guess we will find out if they are right.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Has anyone come up with a rationale for why we effectively guaranteed Josh Palmer $21M (plus incentives) for two seasons? I’m at a loss. I know the WR market is rough with supply issues, but this seems a pretty egregious overpay. Who could we have been bidding against? 

Potential. Beane sees something in this guy. Maybe he was underutilized? That’s really the only thing I can think of, but if any QB can maximize his talent it’s going to be Josh. 

[MiracleAtRich1393]

3 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Has anyone come up with a rationale for why we effectively guaranteed Josh Palmer $21M (plus incentives) for two seasons? I’m at a loss. I know the WR market is rough with supply issues, but this seems a pretty egregious overpay. Who could we have been bidding against? 

LA weather?

[Mat68]

50 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

So my question there is why Palmer wasn’t more productive. He was on a team desperately looking for WR help for McConkey and analytics shows him to be an excellent separator. Hebert is far from a slouch at QB. So why the lack of production?

Okay, but that’s where we are today. why overpay that much to still suck? And those three were not the only options. 

Early on behind Allen, and Williams.  Last season under Harbaugh and Greg Roman they were run heavy.  Im not overly impressed with Herbert on a down for down basis.  You pay a little for potential.  With more use maybe Palmer is more productive.  At minimum, Palmer is an upgrade over Cooper last season. Offers more as a blocker.  With Buffalos ability to run, having capable receivers that don't have to subbed makes them less predictable.  Palmer is making low end wr 2 money. Pretty on par to slightly less than what he was projected.  

Edited Tuesday at 05:24 PM by Mat68

[GunnerBill]

40 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Palmer last year was behind McConkey and Johnston.  Johnston is a 1st round pick and had half again as many targets than Palmer.

Josh was relegated to WR3.

Beane and the Bills evidently feel he can do a lot more with Allen and Brady's offense.  I guess we will find out if they are right.

 

That in itself is a worry. Because Johnston is awful. 

[Don Otreply]

17 hours ago, FireChans said:

Herbert had more pass attempts than Josh last year.

Herbert is more than a bit overrated, in Palmers “highlight” clips, he certainly didn’t show himself to be anything more than a slightly above average game manager, just sayin, he threw more than one pass towards something/ someone other than his receiver…, 

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

That in itself is a worry. Because Johnston is awful. 

 

Another WR 1st round bust.  LOL.  Harbaugh is keeping him and evidently believes in him.

 

He practically split the targets with McConkey.  QJ had 91 targets.  

If Johnston was healthy all year Herbert would have chucked the ball to him 110 times.

 

I will reverse your logic and say if they believe that much in QJ, how well do you trust their evaluation of Palmer?

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

DK only got $60M GTD and has a 2025 cap hit of $11M. Curtis Samuel and Josh Palmer have a cap hit of $14M.

 

Next year, Palmer has a cap hit of $11M.

 

We definitely could have afforded Metcalf. No question. Pittsburgh didn't even use any void years. If we had used one and otherwise set up the contract in the exact same way they did, we could have converted his 2026 base salary to a signing bonus to magically bring the $31M cap hit down to $11M. And then you do the same thing in future years, kicking the can down the road as close to Allen's retirement as possible. By the time the full bill comes due the salary cap is likely $100M higher than it is today and the large dead cap we'd be left with wouldn't really matter. Beane wasn't willing to meet the draft capital required to beat Pittsburgh's 2nd, that's all.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Palmer last year was behind McConkey and Johnston.  Johnston is a 1st round pick and had half again as many targets than Palmer.

Josh was relegated to WR3.

Beane and the Bills evidently feel he can do a lot more with Allen and Brady's offense.  I guess we will find out if they are right.

 

I think there's some truth to that, but all 3 played a similar number of snaps.  It's hard to see how many run vs. pass snaps though, and they were a running team.  Running teams use a lot of rotation, 2 TE's, a FB, multiple backs.  

 

I don't expect him to pop off here statistically, because we philosophically do  the same thing with player rotations and running plays.  But i do see him making some impact plays, and potentially being the 3rd option behind Shakir and Kinkaid (ideally).  The group as it stands now (not including backs):

• Shakir - give this guy the ball, he makes plays
• Kincaid - rough 2nd year and a very big drop.  Hopefully him and Allen can get on the same page because tight ends can be chain movers.
• Coleman - who i see making a jump and being the 3rd target in the passing offense.  He's a little janky at times but when he's on, he's pretty solid.  Active blocker too which just keeps you on the field.  
• Palmer - Man beater type for high low crossers.  Chiefs killer :-).  Maybe he can be like a bateman though and step up.  
• Samuel - Forgotten injury guy but he's a speedy yac guy and can be a man beater against certain teams.
• Knox - Sunk cost financially, but the guy scores touchdowns and blocks well which again gets you snaps. 

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

I think there's some truth to that, but all 3 played a similar number of snaps.  It's hard to see how many run vs. pass snaps though, and they were a running team.  Running teams use a lot of rotation, 2 TE's, a FB, multiple backs.  

 

I don't expect him to pop off here statistically, because we philosophically do  the same thing with player rotations and running plays.  But i do see him making some impact plays, and potentially being the 3rd option behind Shakir and Kinkaid (ideally).  The group as it stands now (not including backs):

• Shakir - give this guy the ball, he makes plays
• Kincaid - rough 2nd year and a very big drop.  Hopefully him and Allen can get on the same page because tight ends can be chain movers.
• Coleman - who i see making a jump and being the 3rd target in the passing offense.  He's a little janky at times but when he's on, he's pretty solid.  Active blocker too which just keeps you on the field.  
• Palmer - Man beater type for high low crossers.  Chiefs killer :-).  Maybe he can be like a bateman though and step up.  
• Samuel - Forgotten injury guy but he's a speedy yac guy and can be a man beater against certain teams.
• Knox - Sunk cost financially, but the guy scores touchdowns and blocks well which again gets you snaps. 

 

Good post.  Maybe they add a WR in the draft like Thornton.  That would make me hopeful for a big speedy guy that can get Josh

throwing long.

[artmalibu]

On 3/25/2025 at 11:11 AM, FireChans said:

Unlike the Chargers where he was their best outside WR? Competing with the maybe the most disappointing rookie WR in 2023?

 

No, the Bills best outside receiver had less yards than Palmer.  The Chargers best receiver had 300 more yards than the Bills best WR and their #2 guy was only 100 yard short of the Bills best.  So the Chargers had a better WR  group than the Bills. 

 

To talk about Johnston like that is lame.  When he was drafted he was not considered a polished ready pro, but a guy with desirable traits to develop.  His yards jumped a good bit (nearly double) in year 2 while having almost twice as many TDs than any Bills WR.  If Johnston did not show the year 2 improvement, Palmer would have had better stats and the Chargers would have probably tried to keep him.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The Jokeman]

On 3/25/2025 at 12:55 PM, ColoradoBills said:

 

Palmer last year was behind McConkey and Johnston.  Johnston is a 1st round pick and had half again as many targets than Palmer.

Josh was relegated to WR3.

Beane and the Bills evidently feel he can do a lot more with Allen and Brady's offense.  I guess we will find out if they are right.

He wasn't behind those two as he played outside WR where McConkey played almost exclusively in the slot. Maybe he got less targets but doesn't mean he was behind them. 

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

He wasn't behind those two as he played outside WR where McConkey played almost exclusively in the slot. Maybe he got less targets but doesn't mean he was behind them. 

 

Snaps and targets are exactly what I meant.

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

Snaps and targets are exactly what I meant.

I read playing behind a matter of depth. To me he was starting opposite Johnston on the outside.

[Richard Noggin]

On 3/25/2025 at 1:36 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

That in itself is a worry. Because Johnston is awful. 

 

1st round draft picks have a way of being given opportunities, wouldn't you say?

 

On 3/25/2025 at 1:51 PM, ColoradoBills said:

 

Another WR 1st round bust.  LOL.  Harbaugh is keeping him and evidently believes in him.

 

He practically split the targets with McConkey.  QJ had 91 targets.  

If Johnston was healthy all year Herbert would have chucked the ball to him 110 times.

 

I will reverse your logic and say if they believe that much in QJ, how well do you trust their evaluation of Palmer?

 

Assessing any WR in a Greg Roman system is inherently unfair. Palmer's film/production prior to 2024 is more promising, according to the Chargers perspectives I've heard. 

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, Richard Noggin said:

 

1st round draft picks have a way of being given opportunities, wouldn't you say?

 

 

Yes. But equally guys who are going to be break out stars have a way of showing it before the end of their rookie deals. Palmer is fine. I can easily see him having career years with Josh and adding 150-200 yards to his previous best. Is a 1,000 yard season out of the question? No. But he basically is what he is. He isn't going to be some hidden gem that suddenly breaks out. The Chargers have had enough need at wide receiver that if he was that guy we would have seen it. 

[oldmanfan]

Palmer offers a skill set we didn’t have.  Fine by me.

[Mat68]

On 3/25/2025 at 10:20 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

It is sort of the market though. Gabe got $24m guaranteed from the Jags last year and they are similar tier of player IMO. They are guys that are low end #2s outside who you'd ideally love to have as your 3rd outside receiver in the rotation. 

 

As to why the Bills are having to fish in that market for a semi-proven outside receiver..... the answer lies in their under investment in the position at draft time between Diggs trade and Keon selection and then question marks about whether Keon is really a true outside, vertical threat guy. 

I think Gabe was a different player after his lower body injuries.  More of a lumbering runner now.  Palmer offers similar big play ability that Gabe offered with better route running to greater impact the short and intermediate.  I think Palmers style is closer to Emmanuel Sanders but in his prime.  Sanders didnt breakout until year 5 going from Pittsburgh to Denver.  I could see Palmer doing the same thing.  
 

Coleman is better suited as a big slot.  What Hollins played last season but potential for more after the catch.  Coleman and Palmer can function in the same offense and play on the field at the same time.  

Edited 18 hours ago by Mat68

[Royale with Cheese]

It would not surprise me if neither Coleman, Samuel or Palmer have over 60 catches.  Shakir will probably be in the 75-90 area.

RB's and tight ends sharing the load with the other catches.

[GunnerBill]

3 hours ago, Mat68 said:

I think Gabe was a different player after his lower body injuries.  More of a lumbering runner now.  Palmer offers similar big play ability that Gabe offered with better route running to greater impact the short and intermediate.  I think Palmers style is closer to Emmanuel Sanders but in his prime.  Sanders didnt breakout until year 5 going from Pittsburgh to Denver.  I could see Palmer doing the same thing.  
 

Coleman is better suited as a big slot.  What Hollins played last season but potential for more after the catch.  Coleman and Palmer can function in the same offense and play on the field at the same time.  

 

I wasn't necessarily saying Palmer is the same player as Gabe - they are different in style - but I think they are the same tier of guy. Low end #2s who you are delighted if they are you first guy in off the bench but always think are upgradeable as your #2. 

 

As for the Sanders comparison, sure he did break out later but he got better each year in Pittsburgh as his playing time increased so it was easier to just say that was opportunity. In his final year there he was a very good #2 to the best WR in football at the time. It's also worth saying he went to Denver as the #2 as well to Demaryious Thomas and his numbers were not as good as the guy he replaced in that role from the previous year - Eric Decker - who went to the Jets. I see the style similarity but I do think Sanders was a tier above and was going to his new team as the #2 whereas Palmer comes here as, for the moment, the #1 outside guy. 

 

I don't hate the Palmer move or the contract. I'm fine with it. As I keep saying, he will have a career year with Josh Allen if he stays healthy. But he isn't suddenly going to be come a game breaking receiver. A bit like when John Brown came here and had a career year, but he was still John Brown just with a better Quarterback hence better numbers. 

 

On Coleman - I agree. I was saying long before that draft and before it became trendy after Matt Harmon said it, Keon Coleman is a big slot. That is where his skillset is best suited. His strength is after the catch ball in hand not separating downfield. The question if Coleman moves inside isn't who comes off the field between he and Palmer... it's who comes off the field between he and Shakir. That's the pair long term I am less sure about co-existing and you can add Kincaid into that mix too IMO. All three are at their best as slot receivers (though they have very different styles). The Bills' issue is other than Palmer they don't have anyone who is best outside.