Bills Sign WR Josh Palmer 3-$36M

[artmalibu]

6 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Maybe the yardage threshold of 660 yards, though he's only done it once in his four year career. 

 

But 7 TD's? He's only had 10 for his entire career and his career high is 4. 

 

It's possible he can become more with Josh. But his career to date hasn't shown that it's "easily attainable". And it's not like he comes from a bad Quarterback situation.

 

 

6 hours ago, FireChans said:

3/4 years not surpassing 660 yards makes it likely he’s gonna surpass 660 yards?

 

Let me guess, this is the year it’s likely Rousseau gets 16 sacks because he’s had 6 and 8 before?

 

If he plays a 17 game season it looks likely, he missed 6 games one year and 2 another and was with in 80 yards.  He is likely to be a bigger part of the plan with the Bills considering the other outside receivers they have. 

 

I mentioned nothing about TDs because the Bills run the ball in the red zone , they had 3 more than any other team last year.  

 

Your comparison  to Rousseau is idiotic!!!  

 

The 2 other guys needed 25 games to get to 660 yards.  So, yea I would rather have Palmer this year than run it back with the 2 other guys.  

Edited Tuesday at 10:50 AM by artmalibu

[BarleyNY]

Has anyone come up with a rationale for why we effectively guaranteed Josh Palmer $21M (plus incentives) for two seasons? I’m at a loss. I know the WR market is rough with supply issues, but this seems a pretty egregious overpay. Who could we have been bidding against? 

[TheWeatherMan]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Has anyone come up with a rationale for why we effectively guaranteed Josh Palmer $21M (plus incentives) for two seasons? I’m at a loss. I know the WR market is rough with supply issues, but this seems a pretty egregious overpay. Who could we have been bidding against? 

And to boot he hasn’t played for the Panthers…what gives? 

[GunnerBill]

26 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Has anyone come up with a rationale for why we effectively guaranteed Josh Palmer $21M (plus incentives) for two seasons? I’m at a loss. I know the WR market is rough with supply issues, but this seems a pretty egregious overpay. Who could we have been bidding against? 

 

It is sort of the market though. Gabe got $24m guaranteed from the Jags last year and they are similar tier of player IMO. They are guys that are low end #2s outside who you'd ideally love to have as your 3rd outside receiver in the rotation. 

 

As to why the Bills are having to fish in that market for a semi-proven outside receiver..... the answer lies in their under investment in the position at draft time between Diggs trade and Keon selection and then question marks about whether Keon is really a true outside, vertical threat guy. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

Has anyone come up with a rationale for why we effectively guaranteed Josh Palmer $21M (plus incentives) for two seasons? I’m at a loss. I know the WR market is rough with supply issues, but this seems a pretty egregious overpay. Who could we have been bidding against? 

The FA WR market is a disaster. Decently productive players like Shakir aren’t being let out of the building. Teams like the Pats are desperate. Dyami Brown who had like 4 good games last year after being a nothing is getting 1 year $10M fully guaranteed 

[FireChans]

4 hours ago, artmalibu said:

He is likely to be a bigger part of the plan with the Bills considering the other outside receivers they have

Unlike the Chargers where he was their best outside WR? Competing with the maybe the most disappointing rookie WR in 2023?

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The FA WR market is a disaster. Decently productive players like Shakir aren’t being let out of the building. Teams like the Pats are desperate. Dyami Brown who had like 4 good games last year after being a nothing is getting 1 year $10M fully guaranteed 

 

Yea, agreed, it is. I actually would have been partial to a flier on Dyami. I loved him coming out and I do think opportunity was part of the problem. Washington never really seemed to trust him. No doubt they had their reasons for that, but he really did pop at the end of last year. Maybe a fluke? Definitely possible. But if it wasn't and the light has just finally gone on he is better than any of the other FA WRs. 

 

I'm fine with Palmer. It is what it is. The market is horrible and he is at least a legit outside receiver in the NFL even if he kinda feels like the baseline of what the Bills need is rather than anything more. 

[Einstein's Dog]

24 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The FA WR market is a disaster. Decently productive players like Shakir aren’t being let out of the building. Teams like the Pats are desperate. Dyami Brown who had like 4 good games last year after being a nothing is getting 1 year $10M fully guaranteed 

For me it adds to the hurt of missing out on DK Metcalf.  That seemed like a reasonable deal for a top tier WR.  Just need to adapt to the slight sticker shock of $30M in future years.  Seemed like an excellent replacement of the $ (really cap space) that had been given to Diggs.

 

Also I'm having to deal with the probability that the FO is moving away from the high dollar QB/LT/WR1/DL/CB investment strategy that I liked.  It now does not seem to include the WR1 in there anymore.

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is sort of the market though. Gabe got $24m guaranteed from the Jags last year and they are similar tier of player IMO. They are guys that are low end #2s outside who you'd ideally love to have as your 3rd outside receiver in the rotation. 

 

As to why the Bills are having to fish in that market for a semi-proven outside receiver..... the answer lies in their under investment in the position at draft time between Diggs trade and Keon selection and then question marks about whether Keon is really a true outside, vertical threat guy. 

 

For sure this is partially market driven. The Bills didn’t want to get shut out for an X WR. Nor did they want to pay a huge contract to one. So they overpaid for a bottom tier starter. I don’t think that nearly covers the disparity between contract and value though.

 

It is similar to the Gabe deal in that both deals are way over the value of the player and both were done in the first wave of free agency - where overpaying is the norm. I also think both will be regrettable. I don’t understand why either of those players would have been a priority for any team though. I had the same thought when both deals were announced so quickly in FA: Oh wow! Someone effed up.

 

I agree that this misstep was driven by underinvestment in the WR spot as well as the Coleman selection. Palmer is here to be the floor at X. He won’t embarrass himself on the field even if he’s pedestrian. Keon will have to beat him out to earn reps there. 

 

As for the state of the market, that’s not a surprise to anyone. It’s why the Bills should have invested more in the WR position. 

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

For me it adds to the hurt of missing out on DK Metcalf.  That seemed like a reasonable deal for a top tier WR.  Just need to adapt to the slight sticker shock of $30M in future years.  Seemed like an excellent replacement of the $ (really cap space) that had been given to Diggs.

 

Also I'm having to deal with the probability that the FO is moving away from the high dollar QB/LT/WR1/DL/CB investment strategy that I liked.  It now does not seem to include the WR1 in there anymore.

I fear Beane learned the wrong lesson from Diggs and post-Diggs.
 

DK only got $60M GTD and has a 2025 cap hit of $11M. Curtis Samuel and Josh Palmer have a cap hit of $14M.

 

Next year, Palmer has a cap hit of $11M.

5 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

For sure this is partially market driven. The Bills didn’t want to get shut out for an X WR. Nor did they want to pay a huge contract to one. So they overpaid for a bottom tier starter. I don’t think that nearly covers the disparity between contract and value though.

 

It is similar to the Gabe deal in that both deals are way over the value of the player and both were done in the first wave of free agency - where overpaying is the norm. I also think both will be regrettable. I don’t understand why either of those players would have been a priority for any team though. I had the same thought when both deals were announced so quickly in FA: Oh wow! Someone effed up.

 

I agree that this misstep was driven by underinvestment in the WR spot as well as the Coleman selection. Palmer is here to be the floor at X. He won’t embarrass himself on the field even if he’s pedestrian. Keon will have to beat him out to earn reps there. 

 

As for the state of the market, that’s not a surprise to anyone. It’s why the Bills should have invested more in the WR position. 

Gabe had upside that Palmer didn’t imo. As well as a QB they were desperate to justify his contract.

[BarleyNY]

57 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The FA WR market is a disaster. Decently productive players like Shakir aren’t being let out of the building. Teams like the Pats are desperate. Dyami Brown who had like 4 good games last year after being a nothing is getting 1 year $10M fully guaranteed 

Certainly true about the market, but the Bills should have done better. At least Dyami Brown has upside and is on a one year deal. There’s no reason that the Bills shouldn’t have been able to get a player with upside on a proven it deal or an aging vet looking for a ring on a one year contract.

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

Certainly true about the market, but the Bills should have done better. At least Dyami Brown has upside and is on a one year deal. There’s no reason that the Bills shouldn’t have been able to get a player with upside on a proven it deal or an aging vet looking for a ring on a one year contract.

Who?

 

Listen I think Josh Palmer stinks. Consider me categorically underwhelmed. But he’s got a higher floor than Dynami Brown. I liked Brown coming out but he honestly had 4 good games. I could see that contract being a complete whiff.
 

The problem that we all agree on is that it’s been obvious the way the WR market has been trending that FA is not where we are going to find what we need and yet we still find ourselves here year after year. 

[BarleyNY]

18 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Gabe had upside that Palmer didn’t imo. As well as a QB they were desperate to justify his contract.

I didn’t see any further upside with Gabe when the Jags signed him. He was who he was at that point. Quality #3 outside WR, but a guy that immediately makes you think “We gotta upgrade there.” when he is your starter. The only thing that makes his contract with the Jags make any sense to me is that Trent Baalke gave it to him.

 

I don’t see any upside with Palmer either. He’s in that same bucket. Really nice to have at your 3rd outside WR as long has he’s on a rookie or otherwise cheap deal, but not a guy you want to pay or see start. I’d just like to think Beane and the Bills are doing substantially better than the likes of Trent Baalke. For what it’s worth, Palmer’s deal is $3M/year cheaper than Davis’. So that’s something. It’s not quite as bad. 

[Mat68]

29 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

For sure this is partially market driven. The Bills didn’t want to get shut out for an X WR. Nor did they want to pay a huge contract to one. So they overpaid for a bottom tier starter. I don’t think that nearly covers the disparity between contract and value though.

 

It is similar to the Gabe deal in that both deals are way over the value of the player and both were done in the first wave of free agency - where overpaying is the norm. I also think both will be regrettable. I don’t understand why either of those players would have been a priority for any team though. I had the same thought when both deals were announced so quickly in FA: Oh wow! Someone effed up.

 

I agree that this misstep was driven by underinvestment in the WR spot as well as the Coleman selection. Palmer is here to be the floor at X. He won’t embarrass himself on the field even if he’s pedestrian. Keon will have to beat him out to earn reps there. 

 

As for the state of the market, that’s not a surprise to anyone. It’s why the Bills should have invested more in the WR position. 

Coleman will play the role Hollins did.  A big slot that will line up at X or Z in heavy formations.  Coleman offers more after the catch than Hollins.  Analytically, Palmer succeeds where Buffalo wr lacked last season.  Outside vs man.  3 plus wide, passing down Palmer at the X does his best.  Palmer fills a need, fits with the wrs on the roster.   

[Einstein's Dog]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Who?

 

Listen I think Josh Palmer stinks. Consider me categorically underwhelmed. But he’s got a higher floor than Dynami Brown. I liked Brown coming out but he honestly had 4 good games. I could see that contract being a complete whiff.
 

The problem that we all agree on is that it’s been obvious the way the WR market has been trending that FA is not where we are going to find what we need and yet we still find ourselves here year after year. 

I think the problem is the FO now has a reduced budget in mind for WR1.  I think it was the $30M allocation that kept them out of the DK sweepstakes. 

 

D Adams still has talent IMO, but a $20M+ price tag may be out of the new WR1 budget zone.

 

If the FO is tightening the $ on WRs, I really hope they draft one in the first 4 rounds.  It needs someone.

[BarleyNY]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Who?

 

Listen I think Josh Palmer stinks. Consider me categorically underwhelmed. But he’s got a higher floor than Dynami Brown. I liked Brown coming out but he honestly had 4 good games. I could see that contract being a complete whiff.
 

The problem that we all agree on is that it’s been obvious the way the WR market has been trending that FA is not where we are going to find what we need and yet we still find ourselves here year after year. 

I don’t think you hand out a contract that’s either 1/$15M or 2/$21M to a JAG+ level WR on day 1 of FA just because is floor is not embarrassing himself on the field. 

 

Other options? A few examples: Brandin Cooks got 2/$13M, Dyami Brown 1/$10M, Mack Hollins 2/$8.4M. All cheaper, two of whom had/have a dynamic ability on the field. The third worked well with Allen last season. 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

I don’t think you hand out a contract that’s either 1/$15M or 2/$21M to a JAG+ level WR on day 1 of FA just because is floor is not embarrassing himself on the field. 

 

Other options? A few examples: Brandin Cooks got 2/$13M, Dyami Brown 1/$10M, Mack Hollins 2/$8.4M. All cheaper, two of whom had/have a dynamic ability on the field. The third worked well with Allen last season. 

Cooks is cooked I think. Hollins is way overpaid. I’ll give you Brown but I think there’s risk there. 
 

If you said the Bills signed Mack and Cooks instead of Palmer, I would still think our WR’s suck. 

[BarleyNY]

2 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Coleman will play the role Hollins did.  A big slot that will line up at X or Z in heavy formations.  Coleman offers more after the catch than Hollins.  Analytically, Palmer succeeds where Buffalo wr lacked last season.  Outside vs man.  3 plus wide, passing down Palmer at the X does his best.  Palmer fills a need, fits with the wrs on the roster.   

So my question there is why Palmer wasn’t more productive. He was on a team desperately looking for WR help for McConkey and analytics shows him to be an excellent separator. Hebert is far from a slouch at QB. So why the lack of production?

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Cooks is cooked I think. Hollins is way overpaid. I’ll give you Brown but I think there’s risk there. 
 

If you said the Bills signed Mack and Cooks instead of Palmer, I would still think our WR’s suck. 

Okay, but that’s where we are today. why overpay that much to still suck? And those three were not the only options. 

[GunnerBill]

12 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Cooks is cooked I think. Hollins is way overpaid. I’ll give you Brown but I think there’s risk there. 
 

If you said the Bills signed Mack and Cooks instead of Palmer, I would still think our WR’s suck. 

 

Agree with this. Palmer is a way better option than Cooks or Hollins at this stage. As I said I'd have been in on Brown, but I acknowledge he is riskier and the Bills were looking for a legit floor because they have nothing else at the spot. 

 

They got themselves here when they wouldn't go up a few extra picks for Jordan Addison or Brian Thomas or when they passed on the likes of Christian Watson for Kaiir Elam (I know Watson has been a walking injury but who knows if that happens here, he has been productive when on the field).

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

So my question there is why Palmer wasn’t more productive. He was on a team desperately looking for WR help for McConkey and analytics shows him to be an excellent separator. Hebert is far from a slouch at QB. So why the lack of production?

Okay, but that’s where we are today. why overpay that much to still suck? And those three were not the only options. 

The overpay part kind of matters but honestly this regime would probably just use the savings to sign another 35 year old DL off the PED suspension list.

 

They don’t do the winning moves enough. That’s what matters to me. I don’t get as worked up about what crappy move is technically crappier. I do not believe Palmer vs the field of crappy FAs is the difference between a title. 
 

if Brown pops and Palmer remains a 500 yard JAG getting cardio out there, I will be mad. I was talking about him as a potential target during the Commanders run. But I can admit that’s a big if.

 

I was more upset they didn’t chase Darnell Mooney last year because he was CLEARLY held back in Chicago, unlike a Palmer who had plenty of reasons to be productive, and just wasn’t.