2025 Annual Joe Marino Bills Mock Offseason

[DrDawkinstein]

52 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

The only free agent signing I don't like is Sweat. I also have questions on the draft as a whole feels like a mismatch of needs and just felt like BPA. 

 

I'd LOVE for Beane to finally go BPA instead of "kinda BPA at position of need" for once.

 

It would have given us DeJean over Coleman. Humphrey over Basham. Metcalf/Brown over Ford. And just about anyone left in the 2022 draft over Elam.

 

Just pick the true ballplayers and figure out the rest another way.

[No_Matter_What]

4 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I'd LOVE for Beane to finally go BPA instead of "kinda BPA at position of need" for once.

 

It would have given us DeJean over Coleman. Humphrey over Basham. Metcalf/Brown over Ford. And just about anyone left in the 2022 draft over Elam.

 

Just pick the true ballplayers and figure out the rest another way.

I know he could be lying but he said that Elam was the last player with the first round grade they had. 

 

Otherwise I agree. We often seem to have clear hole which forces Beane's hand in the first round.

[DrDawkinstein]

22 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

If they had an offseason that was less than this mock projection - this place is going to be unbearable.

 

I'm pretty much counting on it. Especially because there is no one exciting in this year's draft.

 

And it isnt just because we are picking late again. Last year I was pounding the table for DeJean, but could get just as excited over many of the WRs. Previous years we were in the late 20s I still had guys I knew from watching so much college ball that I could get excited for.

 

This year it's a pile of shlubs. I'm sure some will turn out ok. But I wont be surprised if we (and the entire league/NFL fanbase) look back on this draft as a bunch of JAGs.

[The Jokeman]

6 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

I'd LOVE for Beane to finally go BPA instead of "kinda BPA at position of need" for once.

 

It would have given us DeJean over Coleman. Humphrey over Basham. Metcalf/Brown over Ford. And just about anyone left in the 2022 draft over Elam.

 

Just pick the true ballplayers and figure out the rest another way.

Humphrey would likely not started over Morse unless we shifted him to G. Yet would he be a Pro Bowl G? Who knows. DeJean would t be as impressive here without the aided pass rush Philly had. Ford was a 1st Round talent that many felt could be a quality RT yet I know many conveniently forget that. Elam on paper looked like a quality prospect but not every pick is a hit see CEH in KC. Payton Turner in Nawlins. Daxton Hill in Cincy. It's easy to think we've drafted bad but honest dig deep you'll see we ain't as bad as make us out to be.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

28 minutes ago, appoo said:

They just have to be under the cap beginning of the league year. After they can do whatever they want, and only the first 51 players you have under contract count agains the cap. So he can restructure as he goes

 

 

Josh Sweat is probably my top target for the Bills

So Wednesday?

 

If you’re signing major cats it’ll need to be before then, which is why I am suggesting time is limited 

30 minutes ago, MJS said:

Last year was much different. They were eating the Diggs contract, plus they ate some of Allen's by not restructuring all of the money they could have with him. Plus others.

 

This season, they have a lot more levers to pull. They have the ability to sign anyone they want. They might not do it, but they have the flexibility if they want to, unlike last year due to the dead cap they had to deal with.

 

Agreed and they haven’t yet, aside from the Groot extension and the miller cut they haven’t really maxed out those options 

44 minutes ago, JGMcD2 said:

Restructures and extensions are two different things. Brandon Beane can restructure the 4 guys you need named and open cap space with no negotiations needed. 
 

He’ll have the money when he needs the money. 

He could restructure them. He could extend them. For the purposes of this discussion, the goal is to create more immediate cap relief. I am aware they are different, just didn’t specify. 
 

I think the time is ticking to get these things done.

[The Jokeman]

12 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

I know he could be lying but he said that Elam was the last player with the first round grade they had. 

 

Otherwise I agree. We often seem to have clear hole which forces Beane's hand in the first round.

It's called scouting the draft and anticipating what be available with our pick. Fill other holes in free agency and give your self a direction in the draft. Heck look at those 90s drafts wed lose a CB in free agency and draft one in the 1st round to replace them. It was almost a yearly cycle.

[colin]

i could be wrong, but im thinking a trade for hendricks is better than sweat as a FA.

 

FA CB could be good, but i wonder if putting a first of our 3 picks and then a late pick into CB isn't the better idea.  that seems to have worked out more than once in the past.  

 

and am i smoking rocks thinking elam might just emerge (w better coaching and the knowledge that he has one shot left) as a guy who could play CB in the nfl?

[The Jokeman]

2 minutes ago, colin said:

i could be wrong, but im thinking a trade for hendricks is better than sweat as a FA.

 

FA CB could be good, but i wonder if putting a first of our 3 picks and then a late pick into CB isn't the better idea.  that seems to have worked out more than once in the past.  

 

and am i smoking rocks thinking elam might just emerge (w better coaching and the knowledge that he has one shot left) as a guy who could play CB in the nfl?

Elam showed me against KC he not going to workout here. I had hope as he did show good things here and there but no consistency whatsoever. Time to just move along. 

[appoo]

23 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

So Wednesday?

 

If you’re signing major cats it’ll need to be before then, which is why I am suggesting time is limited 

 

Yes and no, keep in mind only the top 51 count against the cap until you submit your 54 man roster in late summer.  But really this is about legal tampering period and teams have a window to make every move cap lega. If Beane signs Sweat for 28M AAV, having otc.com say we only have 1M in cap space, isn't really a barrier. He'll have a bunch of levers he can pull ready to go. 

[JGMcD2]

30 minutes ago, EmotionallyUnstable said:

So Wednesday?

 

If you’re signing major cats it’ll need to be before then, which is why I am suggesting time is limited 

 

Agreed and they haven’t yet, aside from the Groot extension and the miller cut they haven’t really maxed out those options 

He could restructure them. He could extend them. For the purposes of this discussion, the goal is to create more immediate cap relief. I am aware they are different, just didn’t specify. 
 

I think the time is ticking to get these things done.

I’m really not following your point? They’re likely already under the cap with the moves they’ve already made, which makes them compliant with NFL rules. 
 

They can restructure at any time without any effort, even after if they agree to terms with a big fish. If they decide they want to extend, that requires effort, but they’re not in jeopardy of being without cap space to use. 

Edited Sunday at 10:33 PM by JGMcD2

[SectionC3]

1 hour ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Interesting fodder and fun.  My opinion is negative on Alexander at 30.  My main concern is his age (will be 25 this season), so do we really know that just being physically much more mature than most he faced in the MAC and many even at the Senior Bowl wasn’t the reason he looked so good.  Late 2nd, I’d be happy to get Alexander.  I don’t know how Jared Ivey helps the pass rush, but I think he would help the run defense.

 

I know that Noel has a lot of hype now, but isn’t he mainly another slot guy?  The middle of the field would be very clogged up with him, Shakir, Kincaid all looking for room in there.

Me too.  They draft young guys with tools and upside in round 1.  

[bigK14094]

2 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Little surprised Hollins and Ty haven’t re upped yet … must be going to take a look at the market 

Hollins caughtt 6 tds I think, definitely looking at the market.

[BillsFanForever19]

2 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

Hollins caughtt 6 tds I think, definitely looking at the market.

 

Yeah, that's another thing I don't agree with Joe on. 

 

Last year, he was on a 1 yr, 2.6m contract. He's going to get more than a 400k raise. If anyone offers him 5m or more, i'm out on him. I like him, but I don't like him that much. 4.5m is my ceiling.

Edited Sunday at 11:08 PM by BillsFanForever19

[TPS]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Creating Space:

 

Josh Allen Extension: 11.8m Saved
Greg Rousseau Extension: 9.8m Saved (Done)
Connor McGovern Extension: 4.2m Saved 
Von Miller Cut: 8.4m Saved (Done)
Ed Oliver Restructure: 8.7m Saved
Dion Dawkins Restructure: 9.8m Saved
Dawson Knox Restructure: 6.3m Saved

 

Approximately 49.3m Under the Cap

 

Re-Sign:

 

RB Ty Johnson: 2 yrs, 6m
FB Reggie Gilliam: 2 yrs, 5.5m
WR Mack Hollins: 1 yr, 3m
TE Quintin Morris: 1 yr, 2.5m
LS Reid Ferguson, 2 yrs, 3m (Done)

 

Free Agents Signed:

 

DE Josh Sweat: 3 yrs, 60m
CB Charvarius Ward: 2 yrs, 30m
WR Josh Palmer: 2 yrs, 10m

DT Bobby Brown: 2 yrs, 7m
DE Deatrich Wise: 1 yr, 3.5m

 

NFL Draft (with trades):  

 

Round 1: DT Darius Alexander (Toledo)
Round 2: DE Jared Ivey (Ole Miss) 
Round 2: WR Jaylin Noel (Iowa State)
Round 3: S Kevin Winston (Penn State)
Round 4: CB Dorian Strong (Virginia Tech)
Round 5: RB Jarquez Hunter (Auburn)
Round 6: TE CJ Dippre (Alabama)

 

Thoughts:

 

- Joe is usually much more conservative than this. When I put on the video, I wasn't expecting he'd have Josh Sweat and Charvarius Ward on his list. Both players I would be really happy with. Though I'd bet Sweat will cost more than 20m after the deals to Garrett and Crosby.

 

- I'd like to see something a little more at WR then Mack returning, a 2nd Round speedster, and Josh Palmer. But he makes a good argument for why Palmer would fit this offense well.

 

- I wouldn't re-sign Morris and I'd probably pass on paying Gilliam that much.

 

- I agree that with the roster as it would be after his moves in Free Agency, we wouldn't have room for 10 Draft Picks. So he probably would move around a bit using those picks.

 

All in all, a fun video by Joe and an offseason i'd be relatively happy with. I really like what I've seen from Josh Sweat and how he could fit in with this Defense, opposite Groot. And a Christian Benford, Charvarius Ward starting duo would be a big step up from last season.

Not much of a plan at Safety?  Is he going with Rapp and Bishop and ... a rookie 3rd rounder?

[The Jokeman]

7 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yeah, that's another thing I don't agree with Joe on. 

 

Last year, he was on a 1 yr, 2.6m contract. He's going to get more than a 400k raise. If anyone offers him 5m or more, i'm out on him. I like him, but I don't like him that much. 4.5m is my ceiling.

If Hollins gets $5 million I wish him well. I'd give him $3.5 million maybe $4 million with incentives as at end of day he's still a #4 WR.

[Aussie Joe]

16 minutes ago, bigK14094 said:

Hollins caughtt 6 tds I think, definitely looking at the market.

No one would blame him …knocking on the door of 32 yrs old … this could be his last payday …

 

I would prefer them to keep Ty actually if it’s just one who comes back ..find someone in the draft to replace Mack ..

 

Edited Sunday at 11:22 PM by Aussie Joe

[RyanC883]

bringing back Ty Johnson is a huge must for the Bills.  He kept the offense humming on 3rd down as JAs #1 3rd down weapon.   Hollins is another must resign.  Guy was clutch and was generally the most reliable WR.  

 

Would like adding Sweat and Ward as it lessens the need for whoever we pick early at those spots to NEED to be day 1 contributors.  

 

Not excited about Alexander as the No. 30 pick.  Would take a CB, WR Tre Harris or DT Collins.  

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

I know he could be lying but he said that Elam was the last player with the first round grade they had. 

 

Otherwise I agree. We often seem to have clear hole which forces Beane's hand in the first round.

 

Yea he was. The question is in evaluating him did their need at corner affect how they had those guys graded? Do you allow your eyes to see something that isn't really there because you so badly want it to be?

[gonzo1105]

52 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

No one would blame him …knocking on the door of 32 yrs old … this could be his last payday …

 

I would prefer them to keep Ty actually if it’s just one who comes back ..find someone in the draft to replace Mack ..

 

Yup I agree here, Hollins had a good year and is older. Probably wants that last payday that maybe the Bills aren’t prepared to give. 
 

Same with Ty Johnson, he had a massive season for a 3rd down back, has bounced around the league and wants to capitalize on it vs giving us a discount. Completely understand if both guys test and leave if they get the right offer 

[Solomon Grundy]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Love the Ward idea. Sweat and Palmer... I get it... they are the types we need but I think they are really base level of the types we need. Not sure either moves the dial much. 

 

As for his draft... we don't have a 3rd? Which is a shame cos Winston is the pick of his I like best. Alexander and Ivey with our first two pick would every much not amuse me.

Looks like he traded some draft assets for the 3rd