Greg Rousseau Extended (4 years / 80M / 54M Guaranteed)

[Magox]

Right now the DE’s on the current roster are:

 

Rousseau

Epenesa

Soloman

 

There definitely will be a significant push to bring an edge rusher to the fold 

 

Garrett

Hendrickson

Bosa

Mack

Landry

Sweat

 

 

One of these guys I believe will be on the roster

[Kirby Jackson]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Yeah.

 

I don’t see this extension and Garrett happening now. I would have rather traded a 1st and a 2nd and paid Garrett $34M than paid Rousseau $20M.

Some people irrationally overrate Bills players and underrate other players around the league. Rousseau is okay. He’s a starter in this league and does everything pretty well. You love those guys on rookie deals or cheap vet deals. You don’t pay those guys like they are elite. Teams learned that when they kept resetting the QB market with game managers.

Edited Sunday at 02:38 PM by Kirby Jackson

[EmotionallyUnstable]

23 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess that I’m a “hater” because I don’t think that you should pay role players top 10 AAV. 🤷🏻‍♂️ 

 

Lol, there are lots of steps between “everything the Bills do is right” and “everything the Bills do is wrong.” This isn’t a great deal IMO and potentially prevents them for going all in for Garrett. Garrett is a 1,000,000X better player than Rousseau. 

Be careful.

 

I got roasted for this take but I agree.

 

Although an extension likely reduces his cap here this year, it ties up a bunch of $$ down the road when you would be paying Garrett a ton. 
 

It’s amazing how fast ppl went from “send Groot and 1st for Garret” to “great deal!”

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

Right now the DE’s on the current roster are:

 

Rousseau

Epenesa

Soloman

 

There definitely will be a significant push to bring an edge rusher to the fold 

 

Garrett

Hendrickson

Bosa

Mack

Landry

Sweat

 

 

One of these guys I believe will be on the roster

Garrett and Hendrickson are probably off the list with this extension (Sweat maybe as well). You can’t pay $48M AAV to 2 edge players.

[Magox]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Some people are irrationally overrate Bills players and underrate other players around the league. Rousseau is okay. He’s a starter in this league and does everything pretty well. You love those guys on rookie deals or cheap vet deals. You don’t pay those guys like they are elite. Teams learned that when they kept resetting the QB market with game managers.

$20M AAV is not “elite” pay for an edge rusher.  
 

$35.5M AAV which is what  Crosby just recieved is elite pay.  
 

That is 77% higher pay than Rousseau

 

You’ve completely lost the plot 

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Garrett and Hendrickson are probably off the list with this extension (Sweat maybe as well). You can’t pay $48M AAV to 2 edge players.

Yes you can lol

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

$20M AAV is not “elite” pay for an edge rusher.  
 

$35.5M AAV which is what  Crosby just recieved is elite pay.  
 

That is 77% higher pay than Rousseau

 

You’ve completely lost the plot 

Yes you can lol

I really admire your optimism.

 

But I think to most of the folks that don’t like the deal, it is because they see this deal as closing the door on truly upgrading the EDGE position either through FA or trade.

 

I think the odds that Garrett or Hendrickson is a Bill in 2025 went down after yesterday.

 

You think it went up, but most of us just don’t see it.

[Kirby Jackson]

9 minutes ago, Magox said:

$20M AAV is not “elite” pay for an edge rusher.  
 

$35.5M AAV which is what  Crosby just recieved is elite pay.  
 

That is 77% higher pay than Rousseau

 

You’ve completely lost the plot 

Yes you can lol

He’s currently 8th in AAV. I understand that will change over the next few years, but I don’t know if he is a top 20 edge. If you think that they are going to pay a top 3 edge AAV (Garrett or Hendrickson) and top 8 (Rousseau) we disagree. That doesn’t feel likely. It’ll play out though. We will see if that’s the case. 

 

The other guys, specifically Bosa or Mack feel more realistic. They may take shorter term deals. This Rousseau extension was a mistake because it gave the Bills another solid player instead of selling out for a great one. As @FireChans wisely said, I’d rather trade a 1, 2, and Rousseau (more if needed) for Garrett and pay him $34M AAV than Rousseau at $20M AAV. The Bills have enough good players and not nearly enough great players.

 

 

Edited Sunday at 02:51 PM by Kirby Jackson

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I really admire your optimism.

 

But I think to most of the folks that don’t like the deal, it is because they see this deal as closing the door on truly upgrading the EDGE position either through FA or trade.

 

I think the odds that Garrett or Hendrickson is a Bill in 2025 went down after yesterday.

 

You think it went up, but most of us just don’t see it.

I believe they will get one of those guys or if not a high level DT via FA/trade.

 

I guess we will find out

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, Magox said:

I believe they will get one of those guys or if not a high level DT via FA/trade.

 

I guess we will find out

My guess is that if they could have gotten Garrett or Hendrickson, they wouldn’t have signed this deal. They’ve made those calls I’m sure. Again, the vets or even Allen at DT are possible still. The top of the market though is off the table. That’s why the Bills locked up Rousseau.

 

I think using these percentages as a rough guide to % of cap allocated to each position is fair. Clay has 10% to edge. That would be roughly $27M AAV based on the current cap. Yes I understand that it goes up. I also understand that you’ll be higher or lower in certain areas. I understand that QB importance is 27% and that will never be the number. I’m just not sure that you will see the Bills go to 21% or whatever AAV on edge. That’s what you’ll be looking at with Garrett or Hendrickson. They are likely off the table.
 

 

Edited Sunday at 03:04 PM by Kirby Jackson

[SoonerBillsFan]

9 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

My guess is that if they could have gotten Garrett or Hendrickson, they wouldn’t have signed this deal. They’ve made those calls I’m sure. Again, the vets or even Allen at DT are possible still. The top of the market though is off the table. That’s why the Bills locked up Rousseau.

Add Sweat and Allen then address CB, Safety and a downfield WR

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Add Sweat and Allen then address CB, Safety and a downfield WR

You can’t do all of that now. Sweat OR Allen might be an option. I’d say Allen liklier than Sweat. Again, look at the math and cap allocation above. You aren’t going to see the Bills commit 35-40% of the cap (in terms of AAV) to the DL. They already have big commitments at LB, OL, QB and soon Benford and maybe McGovern. It just isn’t realistic.

Edited Sunday at 03:08 PM by Kirby Jackson

[Einstein's Dog]

28 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I really admire your optimism.

 

But I think to most of the folks that don’t like the deal, it is because they see this deal as closing the door on truly upgrading the EDGE position either through FA or trade.

 

You think it went up, but most of us just don’t see it.

And I admire your deep dive into parsing out the movment of the miniscule odds of the adding Garrett or Hendrickson.  The idea of keeping alive the long shot pipe dreams by passing out realistic transactions is not a solid philosophy.

[SCBills]

I don’t get why so many people think Rousseau’s extension closes the door on signing/trading for another big EDGE piece..

 

As pointed out above, Crosby, who everyone would’ve loved to trade for, is at around 35M per year. 
 

If the Bills sign Sweat to 20-25M, that’s 40-45M per for two players. 
 

If they trade for Hendrickson, that’s gets pricey, but the beauty of Rousseau’s contract/age, is that the big money likely hits in the next 3,4,5 years, and I guarantee you at 24 years old / 29 when his deal is up, the Bills hope is to restructure and extend Rousseau again.  
 

Which means they could take on a bigger EDGE cap hit these next 3-4 years before they are ever paying heavy for two EDGE players. 

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

And I admire your deep dive into parsing out the movment of the miniscule odds of the adding Garrett or Hendrickson.  The idea of keeping alive the long shot pipe dreams by passing out realistic transactions is not a solid philosophy.

The guy I’m debating just said:

 

46 minutes ago, Magox said:

I believe they will get one of those guys or if not a high level DT via FA/trade.

So if you have problems with minuscule odds, take it up with him. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

50 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

My guess is that if they could have gotten Garrett or Hendrickson, they wouldn’t have signed this deal. They’ve made those calls I’m sure. Again, the vets or even Allen at DT are possible still. The top of the market though is off the table. That’s why the Bills locked up Rousseau.

 

I think using these percentages as a rough guide to % of cap allocated to each position is fair. Clay has 10% to edge. That would be roughly $27M AAV based on the current cap. Yes I understand that it goes up. I also understand that you’ll be higher or lower in certain areas. I understand that QB importance is 27% and that will never be the number. I’m just not sure that you will see the Bills go to 21% or whatever AAV on edge. That’s what you’ll be looking at with Garrett or Hendrickson. They are likely off the table.
 

 

I agree with this chart.  We still need to upgrade WR,but the meat of this offseason needs to be on defense.

[Cheektowaga Chad]

20 million a year was the upper limit of what I would be okay with, anything more I would have moved on

 

But I like the deal, you just locked up a young good defensive end, if you manipulate the contract and future extensions to free up cap room. 

 

You just locked up a spot on your dline for the rest of Josh Allen career 

 

It's a good deal as long as he doesn't pull a diggs and randomly decide he no longer wants to play in buffalo 

 

You still need to go and get the game breaking DE, but can do that with shorter term deals and guys that are "ring chasing" and you can take a flyer on guys in the draft that are pure pass rushers in the mean time 

[Magox]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

He’s currently 8th in AAV. I understand that will change over the next few years, but I don’t know if he is a top 20 edge. If you think that they are going to pay a top 3 edge AAV (Garrett or Hendrickson) and top 8 (Rousseau) we disagree. That doesn’t feel likely. It’ll play out though. We will see if that’s the case. 

 

The other guys, specifically Bosa or Mack feel more realistic. They may take shorter term deals. This Rousseau extension was a mistake because it gave the Bills another solid player instead of selling out for a great one. As @FireChans wisely said, I’d rather trade a 1, 2, and Rousseau (more if needed) for Garrett and pay him $34M AAV than Rousseau at $20M AAV. The Bills have enough good players and not nearly enough great players.

 

 

 

 

I'm going to deconstruct this piece by piece.

 

Regarding Rousseau's pay relative to other Defensive Ends

 

• I am not sure where he got those numbers, but they are incorrect, he is the 12th highest paid DE in the league on an AAV basis

1. Max Crosby $35.5M AAV
2. Nick Bosa $34M AAV
3. Josh Hines-Allen $28.25M AAV
4. Brian Burns $28.2M AAV
5. TJ Watt $28.02 M AAV
6. Myles Garrett $25M AAV
7. Montez Sweat $24.5M AAV
8. Danielle Hunter $24.5M AAV
9. Rashan Gary $24M AAV
10. Bradley Chub $22M AAV
11. Trey Hendrickson $21M AAV
12. Then Rousseau (Maybe)

• For Reference https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-end   And I just went into Sportrac and checked into each of these players and it matches with what OvertheCap shows
• Secondly, We don't even know if Rousseau's extension is $20M AAV, it could be less.  We saw that with Shakir's report when it first came out and it ended up coming in a lot less.  Just as Logic pointed out, until the final numbers come in that' what it will be
• Third point, It really isn't $20M AAV (even if that is what the extension is).  It's not as if he is beginning this extension part of his contract now, it wouldn't be until 2026.  When you consider his $13M option he had for 2025, it actually is $18.6M AAV
• Fourth point, as it stands Rousseau is the 12th highest paid DE, but many of these contracts were signed years ago.  Meaning that if all Defensive ends were up for a contract negotiations, Rousseau based off his current contract which is without doubt a team friendly deal would end up probably somewhere between the 15th - 20th highest paid DE

 

Regarding Rousseau and where he ranks vs other DE's

 

• I can't argue back and forth against subjective opinions.  You can't argue against people's feelings, feelings are largely irrational.   Subjective opinions which is what you and the detractors are able to bring up aside from a singular focus on just sack totals.  But what we can argue and debate is from an objective standpoint.  Where objectivity is not based on feelings but rather facts, metrics etc.

1. Rousseau is 15th in the league in solo tackles
2. Rousseau is 10th in the league in Tackles for loss (That's a very important metric)
3. Rousseau is 3rd in the league at the DE spot in Forced Fumbles (Another very important metric)
4. Rousseau is 10th in the league in Stops (Another important metric because this means he makes tackles that are usually for a yard or less) (It is used in a similar sense as EPA sort of metric, relativity)
5. Rousseau is 19th in Sacks
6. Rousseau is 18th in Hurries
7. Rousseau is 2nd in QB hits (This is better than a regular Hurry because it means he got to the QB right after the ball was released)
8. Rousseau is 10th in the league in Total QB pressures
9. Rousseau is 11th in the league in batted passes
10. Rousseau is 12th in the league in PFF ratings
11. And he did all this by being 25th in the league in snaps, 32nd in the league in run defense snaps and 17th in the league against rush snaps

 

• For those that say he doesn't produce when it counts, ok, well he did have a sack in the playoffs against Denver and a sack in the playoffs against the Ravens.  That's 2 sacks in 3 games.  So it's not as if he completely disappears in the playoffs.    Again , facts
• You can't objectively make an argument and say he is not a top 12 DE in the league, not based off facts or metrics.  But only with your feelings.

 

For those that say this doesn't allow an opportunity to go after other quality FA's or trades

 

• I don't even know where to begin.  It most certainly isn't rooted in reality.
• Rousseau's contract extension will most likely free up $10M in cap space in 2025.  Will need to see final contract deals but highly likely it will be in this ball park
• People say, beyond 2025 it will make it more difficult.  Simply not true.  Look at the Nick Bosa contract, which is a good example to compare against.  They are applying one voided year that is in use right now which is what the Bills have typically been offering.  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29037/nick-bosa#:~:text=2023-2028 Rookie Extension,average annual salary of %2434%2C000%2C000.     You can also look at the Shakir contract https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/77025/khalil-shakir

 

1. If you look at Bosa's and Shakir's contract which have similar contract constructions, both were extensions which means that they had a previous contract in place.  If you look at Bosa's contract they converted all the salary to bonus, same with Shakir.  Shakir this year will count about .9% towards cap and Bosa's first year counted 4.9% of the cap.  The difference is Nick Bosa had a $50M signing bonus that could only be spread through his 5 years at $10M a pop for each of the 5 seasons.  Rousseau very likely will be somewhere around 2% of the cap in 2025
2. For 2026 and 2027, if you look at Bosa's contract he is at minimum base level.  Shakir is at minimum base level for 2026.   Shakir is at 2.2% of the cap, Bosa's is 5.74% of the cap.  You can make a fair assumption based off what has been reported for Rousseau that he will count around 3 - 3.25% of the cap in 2026 and for 2027 around 4 - 4.25% of the cap.
3. Even in 2028 if you look at how Bosa's contract is setup, the 49ers set it up with a heavy base salary pay, which if the Bills wanted to they could convert that base salary to a bonus and spread it out in 2029 and the 2030 voided year. lowering the cap hit.

 

• In terms of cap room and flexibility to be able to go after high end FA's/Trades, it is absolutely 100% incorrect to say that it makes it less likely. 

 

Whether there is a will from ownership to spend the money in real dollar terms, that is another matter and I cannot get into the mind of Pegula whether or not he'll want to make a big push.  But based off the fact that we only have 3 DE's on the roster and one is a very unproven rookie, I do believe they will make a push for one of the top 6-7 DE's Garrett, Hendrickson, Landry, Sweat, Mack or Bosa.......I also believe that Pegula recognizes that Josh Allen is at his absolute physical peak and pretty soon from a physical not overall standpoint that he will be on the decline soon.  It's sort of now or never.  

 

 

Edited Sunday at 04:17 PM by Magox

[Kirby Jackson]

Just now, Magox said:

 

 

I'm going to deconstruct this piece by piece.

 

Regarding Rousseau's pay relative to other Defensive Ends

 

• I am not sure where he got those numbers, but they are incorrect, he is the 12th highest paid DE in the league on an AAV basis

1. Max Crosby $35.5M AAV
2. Nick Bosa $34M AAV
3. Josh Hines-Allen $28.25M AAV
4. Brian Burns $28.2M AAV
5. TJ Watt $28.02 M AAV
6. Myles Garrett $25M AAV
7. Montez Sweat $24.5M AAV
8. Danielle Hunter $24.5M AAV
9. Rashan Gary $24M AAV
10. Bradley Chub $22M AAV
11. Trey Hendrickson $21M AAV
12. Then Rousseau (Maybe)

• For Reference https://overthecap.com/position/4-3-defensive-end   And I just went into Sportrac and checked into each of these players and it matches with what OvertheCap shows
• Secondly, We don't even know if Rousseau's extension is $20M AAV, it could be less.  We saw that with Shakir's report when it first came out and it ended up coming in a lot less.  Just as Logic pointed out, until the final numbers come in that' what it will be
• Third point, It really isn't $20M AAV (even if that is what the extension is).  It's not as if he is beginning this extension part of his contract now, it wouldn't be until 2026.  When you consider his $13M option he had for 2025, it actually is $18.6M AAV
• Fourth point, as it stands Rousseau is the 12th highest paid DE, but many of these contracts were signed years ago.  Meaning that if all Defensive ends were up for a contract negotiations, Rousseau based off his current contract which is without doubt a team friendly deal would end up probably somewhere between the 15th - 20th highest paid DE

 

Regarding Rousseau and where he ranks vs other DE's

 

• I can't argue back and forth against subjective opinions.  You can't argue against people's feelings, feelings are largely irrational.   Subjective opinions which is what you and the detractors are able to bring up aside from a singular focus on just sack totals.  But what we can argue and debate is from an objective standpoint.  Where objectivity is not based on feelings but rather facts, metrics etc.

1. Rousseau is 15th in the league in solo tackles
2. Rousseau is 10th in the league in Tackles for loss (That's a very important metric)
3. Rousseau is 3rd in the league at the DE spot in Forced Fumbles (Another very important metric)
4. Rousseau is 10th in the league in Stops (Another important metric because this means he makes tackles that are usually for a yard or less) (It is used in a similar sense as EPA sort of metric, relativity)
5. Rousseau is 19th in Sacks
6. Rousseau is 18th in Hurries
7. Rousseau is 2nd in QB hits (This is better than a regular Hurry because it means he got to the QB right after the ball was released)
8. Rousseau is 10th in the league in Total QB pressures
9. Rousseau is 11th in the league in batted passes
10. Rousseau is 12th in the league in PFF ratings
11. And he did all this by being 25th in the league in snaps, 32nd in the league in run defense snaps and 17th in the league against rush snaps

 

• For those that say he doesn't produce when it counts, ok, well he did have a sack in the playoffs against Denver and a sack in the playoffs against the Ravens.  That's 2 sacks in 3 games.  So it's not as if he completely disappears in the playoffs.    Again , facts
• You can't objectively make an argument and say he is not a top 12 DE in the league, not based off facts or metrics.  But only with your feelings.

 

For those that say this doesn't allow an opportunity to go after other quality FA's or trades

 

• I don't even know where to begin.  It most certainly isn't rooted in reality.
• Rousseau's contract extension will most likely free up $10M in cap space in 2025.  Will need to see final contract deals but highly likely it will be in this ball park
• People say, beyond 2025 it will make it more difficult.  Simply not true.  Look at the Nick Bosa contract, which is a good example to compare against.  They are applying one voided year that is in use right now which is what the Bills have typically been offering.  https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29037/nick-bosa#:~:text=2023-2028 Rookie Extension,average annual salary of %2434%2C000%2C000.     You can also look at the Shakir contract https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/77025/khalil-shakir

 

1. If you look at Bosa's and Shakir's contract which have similar contract constructions, both were extensions which means that they had a previous contract in place.  If you look at Bosa's contract they converted all the salary to bonus, same with Shakir.  Shakir this year will count about .9% towards cap and Bosa's first year counted 4.9% of the cap.  The difference is Nick Bosa had a $50M signing bonus that could only be spread through his 5 years at $10M a pop for each of the 5 seasons.  Rousseau very likely will be somewhere around 2% of the cap in 2025
2. For 2026 and 2027, if you look at Bosa's contract he is at minimum base level.  Shakir is at minimum base level for 2026.   Shakir is at 2.2% of the cap, Bosa's is 5.74% of the cap.  You can make a fair assumption based off what has been reported for Rousseau that he will count around 3 - 3.25% of the cap in 2026 and for 2027 around 4 - 4.25% of the cap.
3. Even in 2028 if you look at how Bosa's contract is setup, the 49ers set it up with a heavy base salary pay, which if the Bills wanted to they could convert that base salary to a bonus and spread it out in 2029 and the 2030 voided year. lowering the cap hit.

 

• In terms of cap room and flexibility to be able to go after high end FA's/Trades, it is absolutely 100% incorrect to say that it makes it less likely. 

 

 

Whether there is a will from ownership to spend the money in real dollar terms, that is another matter and I cannot get into the mind of Pegula whether or not he'll want to make a big push.  But based off the fact that we only have 3 DE's on the roster and one is a very unproven rookie, I do believe they will make a push for one of the top 6-7 DE's Garrett, Hendrickson, Landry, Sweat, Mack or Bosa.......I also believe that Pegula recognizes that Josh Allen is at his absolute physical peak and pretty soon from a physical not overall standpoint that he will be on the decline soon.  It's sort of now or never.  

 

 

I’m literally sitting on a beach in Antigua. That’s too much to read. With that being said, the gap from Garrett to Hendrickson is decent. The gap from Hendrickson to the field is decent. The gap from Garrett to those other 4 is wide. They are not all interchangeable. Now that Garrett is off the table, they should try to get one of the vets on a short term deal (Mack or Bosa). That’s possible. The top of the market AND Rousseau was never realistic. 

[Magox]

Just now, Kirby Jackson said:

I’m literally sitting on a beach in Antigua. That’s too much to read. With that being said, the gap from Garrett to Hendrickson is decent. The gap from Hendrickson to the field is decent. The gap from Garrett to those other 4 is wide. They are not all interchangeable. Now that Garrett is off the table, they should try to get one of the vets on a short term deal (Mack or Bosa). That’s possible. The top of the market AND Rousseau was never realistic. 

 

Jeez, I wrote up that whole thing and then come to find out that Garrett is off the table.  

 

Have fun on your trip

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

$20M AAV is not “elite” pay for an edge rusher.  
 

$35.5M AAV which is what  Crosby just recieved is elite pay.  
 

That is 77% higher pay than Rousseau

 

You’ve completely lost the plot 

Yes you can lol

He will be in out top 5 players for cap hit no?