The annual "don't believe the first reported contract numbers" thread

[Logic]

Delete this thread or let it sink off the first page if you want, I don't care, but:

**walks up to mic, taps it twice, clears throat**

Ahem. As contract extension season and free agency season begin, I am here to remind you once again: 

Never take the first contract numbers publicly announced at face value. These numbers are ALWAYS given to the media by the players' agents, and thus they are ALWAYS phrased in the most favorable sounding way, without regard to accuracy or nuance. It is always more prudent to wait a day or two until the ACTUAL contract numbers come out, because they typically paint a much different picture.

Look our for words like "up to" and "guaranteed money" and "void years". What looks like a $50 million deal can easily be a $25 million deal, with various incentives (both likely and unlikely to be earned), escalators, phony baloney tacked on years, etc.

If you overreact to the first numbers announced for any new NFL contract, you're overreacting to incomplete information at best, and outright lies at worst.

Thank you.

[HOUSE]

You mean Mitch Trubisky will never see the 71 mil?

[Low Positive]

The way this works is 

1. Schefter breaks the signing with a huge number. This is because his sources are almost all agents
2. Rapaport then reports the signing with a much lower number. This is because his sources are almost all front office personnel
3. We get actual contract numbers and find additional outs and void years to lower cap hits.

I don't care how much these guys get paid. It's not my money. What I do care about is cap hits. We don't get those for a few days, so I don't respond to signings until then.

[DrDawkinstein]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Look our for words like "up to" and "guaranteed money" and "void years". What looks like a $50 million deal can easily be a $25 million deal, with various incentives (both likely and unlikely to be earned), escalators, phony baloney tacked on years, etc.

If you overreact to the first numbers announced for any new NFL contract, you're overreacting to incomplete information at best, and outright lies at worst.

Thank you.

 

Great post.

 

Zooming in on this part, the way I read these signing updates is:

 

It's 4/$50M if he continues to play at a high level, and in that case even $12.5M/yr is a steal.

or

It's 4/$25M if he stinks and we have to release him, as the guarantees are the only parts that play into dead money. And in that case, $6M/yr isnt much at all in the grand scheme of things.

[BuffaloBillyG]

Excellent post. And something that should be common knowledge by most. Yet the internet is a place for knee jerk reaction...not sensible thought. 

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Delete this thread or let it sink off the first page if you want, I don't care, but:

**walks up to mic, taps it twice, clears throat**

Ahem. As contract extension season and free agency season begin, I am here to remind you once again: 

Never take the first contract numbers publicly announced at face value. These numbers are ALWAYS given to the media by the players' agents, and thus they are ALWAYS phrased in the most favorable sounding way, without regard to accuracy or nuance. It is always more prudent to wait a day or two until the ACTUAL contract numbers come out, because they typically paint a much different picture.

Look our for words like "up to" and "guaranteed money" and "void years". What looks like a $50 million deal can easily be a $25 million deal, with various incentives (both likely and unlikely to be earned), escalators, phony baloney tacked on years, etc.

If you overreact to the first numbers announced for any new NFL contract, you're overreacting to incomplete information at best, and outright lies at worst.

Thank you.

Agents love to blow smoke and spin the truth.  I love how when a veteran is signed late in the offseason, it’s always because he was being very selective in choosing the right deal from “multiple teams.”  

[TheyCallMeAndy]

And we also need to remember that it isn’t 2014 anymore, and the cap has gone up around 50 million the last few years. Guys will get “big” contracts because there is more money going around. 

[Logic]

15 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

And we also need to remember that it isn’t 2014 anymore, and the cap has gone up around 50 million the last few years. Guys will get “big” contracts because there is more money going around. 

Great point.

And not only that, but the cap will go up next year, and the year after, and the year after.

So often a deal looks like mega bucks and fans hem and haw and say "overpay", and by year two or three of the deal, it looks like an absolute bargain.
 

[Westside]

1 hour ago, HOUSE said:

You mean Mitch Trubisky will never see the 71 mil?

There’s always hope!

[DrDawkinstein]

 

Oh snap, this thread just made the BIG TIME!

[Logic]

8 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Oh snap, this thread just made the BIG TIME!

[Sweats]

The only understanding of negotiation i know is, "you go high......i go low".

 

That is truly all i know for that, so if you start throwing in salary negotiations, cap hits, guaranteed monies, etc. you lost me.

[ColoradoBills]

5 minutes ago, Logic said:

 

Enjoy your "15 minutes".  I never been nominated.

[Jay_Fixit]

Better than mock draft season. 

[SydneyBillsFan]

4 hours ago, HOUSE said:

You mean Mitch Trubisky will never see the 71 mil?

 

Only if he flies to Indonesia to be paid in Rupees.

[Thrivefourfive]

Jerry Glanville wasn’t just talking’ about coaches 

[Don Otreply]

9 hours ago, Logic said:

Delete this thread or let it sink off the first page if you want, I don't care, but:

**walks up to mic, taps it twice, clears throat**

Ahem. As contract extension season and free agency season begin, I am here to remind you once again: 

Never take the first contract numbers publicly announced at face value. These numbers are ALWAYS given to the media by the players' agents, and thus they are ALWAYS phrased in the most favorable sounding way, without regard to accuracy or nuance. It is always more prudent to wait a day or two until the ACTUAL contract numbers come out, because they typically paint a much different picture.

Look our for words like "up to" and "guaranteed money" and "void years". What looks like a $50 million deal can easily be a $25 million deal, with various incentives (both likely and unlikely to be earned), escalators, phony baloney tacked on years, etc.

If you overreact to the first numbers announced for any new NFL contract, you're overreacting to incomplete information at best, and outright lies at worst.

Thank you.

Yeah but,  that would be the death of ninety page threads where people repeat themselves over and over and over and over and over and over and over…, 

 

 

[Simon]

40 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Yeah but,  that would be the death of ninety page threads where people repeat themselves over and over and over and over and over and over and over…, 

 

 

 

Keep dreaming that dream, my friend. 

[Thurman#1]

15 hours ago, Logic said:

Delete this thread or let it sink off the first page if you want, I don't care, but:

**walks up to mic, taps it twice, clears throat**

Ahem. As contract extension season and free agency season begin, I am here to remind you once again: 

Never take the first contract numbers publicly announced at face value. These numbers are ALWAYS given to the media by the players' agents, and thus they are ALWAYS phrased in the most favorable sounding way, without regard to accuracy or nuance. It is always more prudent to wait a day or two until the ACTUAL contract numbers come out, because they typically paint a much different picture.

Look our for words like "up to" and "guaranteed money" and "void years". What looks like a $50 million deal can easily be a $25 million deal, with various incentives (both likely and unlikely to be earned), escalators, phony baloney tacked on years, etc.

If you overreact to the first numbers announced for any new NFL contract, you're overreacting to incomplete information at best, and outright lies at worst.

Thank you.

 

 

A good reminder. Well worth hearing again. And again and again.

[QCity]

Great advice but nobody will listen to this 😂

 

When to comes to re-signing our own players there is no such thing as a bad deal on TBD.