Thoughts about older draft eligible players?

[Simon]

58 minutes ago, Bongo said:

I’ll be at the same camp. 57 with both knees reconstructed. Let’s show ‘em how it’s done.

 

[Bongo]

15 minutes ago, Simon said:

 

Heck yeah. Bruised and bloodied. Ain’t no school like the old school.

 

Go Chiefs

[Buffalo716]

3 hours ago, Big Blitz said:

Yep.  
 

I love the metric - age of “breakout season.”  
 

Which is why I think there is very little room for growth for Nix, Penix, and even Daniels. 
 

Not saying they won’t be good players.  Or can’t improve.  
 

It’s more likely imo that Daniels and Nix take steps back.  Could be wrong.  They can absolutely still maintain what they’re doing.

 

And I think Stroud can still significantly improve.  
 

 

Any draft eligible 23 year old no matter the position - I’m immediately skeptical.  
 

It’s why I’m still high on Keon.  
 

 

I've been tracking breakout age for over a decade 

 

Jayden Daniels while being an old college player.. by the metrics his breakout age was 2019 his freshman season at 19

 

Over 240 ypg... A 7-1 touchdown to interception ratio.. 150 rating with 300 rushing yards 

 

That's hitting breakout metrics as a freshman

 

Joe burrow didn't hit his breakout metrics till he was 22

Edited Wednesday at 08:50 PM by Buffalo716

[BruceVilanch]

3 hours ago, The Cincinnati Kid said:

I’ve entered my information, but at 39 years old in May, despite a legendary college career (in my mind), I do not expect a call on draft weekend. Again. For the 15th straight year. But without hope, what do we have, right?

I text/call my wife every year after the draft is over telling her the bad news. Last year she said "you're 40, time to give up the dream"

[Billl]

I don’t mind drafting a player who is a bit older in the third round or later.  Don’t love it in round 2 and would hate it in round 1.  It really limits their upside, IMO.

[chongli]

Jim Kelly didn't start for us as a rookie until age 26. Just saying....

[Orlando Buffalo]

I think it definitely depends on what your expectations are- if you need him to start this year older is probably better but if you have time to let him develop you want the younger guy. I also don't mind a older guy for QB because so much of that is mental or a RB or DT because they likely don't last that long anyways. 

[Chandler#81]

23 hours ago, OldTimer1960 said:

Does being an older draft eligible player affect their draft position in your view?  In my eyes I think it should be at least a bit of a negative.  My reasoning is that 1. An older player may have a physical/mental advantage vs younger college players that makes them appear better than they really are, 2. Older draftees may have less upside as they’ve had longer to build muscle and learn their position and techniques, and 3. those older draftees will be near 30 when their rookie contract is up - so do you want a second contract for a guy near 30 y.o.?  To me it is a bit like RBs being downgraded because wear and tear leads you to not want to sign them to a second contract.

 

Darius Alexander has done a good job of hiding his birthday, but he will be a 25 y.o. rookie.  Darien Porter is also a 6th year player who will be at least 24 as a rookie.

 

Thoghts?

Fuggetaboutit, OldTimer. It’s past time to hang ‘em up. Start looking at burial plots. 😂

[The Jokeman]

3 hours ago, chongli said:

Jim Kelly didn't start for us as a rookie until age 26. Just saying....

Thankfully he didn't start sooner or we would have never bottomed out to be in a position to get Bruce Smith and some of the other talent we acquired. In retrospect Kelly playing in the USFL helped us getter the talent he took advantage of when he got here. Toss in trading Greg Bell for Bennet forced us to take a chance on a RB named Thurman Thomas the draft the following year etc. 

Edited Thursday at 07:01 PM by The Jokeman

[OldTimer1960]

1 hour ago, Chandler#81 said:

Fuggetaboutit, OldTimer. It’s past time to hang ‘em up. Start looking at burial plots. 😂

Ouch!

[Mat68]

On 3/5/2025 at 11:57 AM, OldTimer1960 said:

Does being an older draft eligible player affect their draft position in your view?  In my eyes I think it should be at least a bit of a negative.  My reasoning is that 1. An older player may have a physical/mental advantage vs younger college players that makes them appear better than they really are, 2. Older draftees may have less upside as they’ve had longer to build muscle and learn their position and techniques, and 3. those older draftees will be near 30 when their rookie contract is up - so do you want a second contract for a guy near 30 y.o.?  To me it is a bit like RBs being downgraded because wear and tear leads you to not want to sign them to a second contract.

 

Darius Alexander has done a good job of hiding his birthday, but he will be a 25 y.o. rookie.  Darien Porter is also a 6th year player who will be at least 24 as a rookie.

 

Thoghts?

Most part yes.  Porter changed positions so less extreme.  Imo potential is a prerequisite for a day 1 or day 2 pick.  Physical metrics bench marks and production too.  Most cases there is not much juice left in the fruit.  They are who they are.  Whether you see them as a starter, backup, or bottom of the roster that is the peak.  Scheme fit is critical to get that level out of them.  So scheme limits who can draft them.  Team needs limits who will draft.  That all results in them dropping lower than what their possible impact could be.  Contract wise you dont want to extend someone who has already played their best football.  You are paying for more.  Guys you think are 1 contract go later.  

 

 

I think this is my position with Cook.  He was drafted early for his running and catching ability.  He also had an insanely low work rate at GA.  Has about the same amount of carries combined college and NFL right now as guys being drafted in 25.  Only 2 season of  primary back load lends to his best still infront of him.  

Edited Thursday at 06:10 PM by Mat68