Eagles reset RB market, extend Barkley.

[Mister Defense]

1 hour ago, QCity said:

That is not "resetting" the RB market 😂

 

The highest salary often does set the bar, and in this case, resetting it to some degree, as that is a big leap, and big news.  In the next two seasons. Barkley can earn $56 million with incentives, with about 40 guaranteed.

 

I do not think players are going to leapfrog over that contract, or that there will be a stampede of running backs signing $20+ million soon. But likely to have a pretty big impact on the running back market in the next few years.

 

Good for Barkley, but this could have waited at least a few more weeks.

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, jwhit34 said:

Guess the RB based on the past two years' stats:

 

RB                                  Rush Yds            Rec Yds     Total TDs

1                                  2,357                  833               31

2                                 2,134                   579               18

3                                 2,131                    703               24

4                                 2,050                  685               24

5                                 2,097                  404               16

6                                 2,078                  453               14

7                                 2,084                  549               11

 

#1 is clearly a cut above the others. If you use 34 games (I didn't adjust for games missed) then #s 2-7 averaged between 74-83 total yards per game, so really no difference at all. There is wide disparity in TDs, and for most of them they varied a lot year-to-year.

 

The reveal:

#1 is Jahmyr Gibbs. He is great, imagine if he didn't split time with Montgomery.

 

Most people on this board probably can guess which one is James Cook in no more than 2 guesses. Knowing his 2024 TDs is a dead giveaway.

 

Cook is #3

Joe Mixon is #4

 

#2 is James Conner

 

#5 is Chuba Hubbard

#6 is Najee Harris

#7 is Tony Pollard

 

What's the point? Outside of Gibbs, these are not top tier RBs and their stats are essentially the same except for the TDs. Some have played with pedestrian QBs at best (Hubbard, Harris, Conner), Pollard split time in Dallas 1 year and played on an awful TEN team, which leaves Mixon and Cook. 

 

Cook is a really nice player but he is not super distinguishable from the mid-level RBs in the league. 

 

 

 

 

 

Ok. Based on this information, what would be your plan?

[DapperCam]

7 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Prior to this signing I believe that Cook could have been had for $12.5M AAV, I think now he will be around $14M - $15M AAV.   They could do a $13M AAV guarantee with performance sweeteners that could take it to $16M.

 

I do think that they will utilize him more than they did in the past and that Ty Johnson would most likely be a goner if they do decide to extend him.   I think it will happen. 

If he wants $15m I just give him a thousand carries this season and then let him walk. If he wants to sit out, just give him Leveon Bell’s number and ask him how his career went after that. We have other more pressing needs for our limited cap space.

[Einstein's Dog]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

Prior to this signing I believe that Cook could have been had for $12.5M AAV, I think now he will be around $14M - $15M AAV.   They could do a $13M AAV guarantee with performance sweeteners that could take it to $16M.

 

I do think that they will utilize him more than they did in the past and that Ty Johnson would most likely be a goner if they do decide to extend him.   I think it will happen. 

Maybe Cook could have been had for $12.5 but most of us in the Bills forum are glad they didn't do it.   It's been the FO philosophy not to pay RBs big money, and its been a good one.  Don't do it for a two down back.  Ideally you would have Cook play out his last year here - he's good value now.  But I could understand the FO if they jettisoned Cook as part of a package in a trade - Cook looks like a potential problem.

 

Ty Johnson should be re-signed, he's good value and a good player.  R Davis can be groomed to be the lead back and draft another one.  An RB by committee is a smart way to go.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Just now, Einstein's Dog said:

Maybe Cook could have been had for $12.5 but most of us in the Bills forum are glad they didn't do it.   It's been the FO philosophy not to pay RBs big money, and its been a good one.  Don't do it for a two down back.  Ideally you would have Cook play out his last year here - he's good value now.  But I could understand the FO if they jettisoned Cook as part of a package in a trade - Cook looks like a potential problem.

 

Ty Johnson should be re-signed, he's good value and a good player.  R Davis can be groomed to be the lead back and draft another one.  An RB by committee is a smart way to go.

Why are you glad though? They can do it and add void years. We won’t feel the big cap hits for years.

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

You mean for 2026?

I think he’ll hold out some of this year and a longer one next year if we plan on him keeping him under the tag for 26.  Just plan on using him for the next two years then letting him go.  Probably the smartest decision for the team.  But It’ll be the first time beanes played hard ball with a draft pick that has played very well.   

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

There is a caveat with this deal, Saquon was already signed for 2025 and 2026, so his two year extension in theory doesn’t begin until 2027 and will cover 2028.

 

So it’s not as if his $20.6m AAV begins now in 2025.   So it’s not quite as high as it appears when you factor in the anticipated rate of inflation in the cap.

That’s what I was looking for earlier. 
 

It sounds like they are more just getting ahead of cap inflation. Not really resetting the market or drastically changing RB value.

Edited 4 hours ago by FireChans

[GASabresIUFan]

18 minutes ago, Augie said:

The Browns wanted to be what the Eagles have become. A team that flaunts the salary cap and has it pay off with something good, at least for a while. The Browns screwed themselves with the Watson contract, and they have nothing but misery to show for it. Eventually the Eagles will have to eat all those void years, but the fans are having fun now! 

The Browns got what they deserved.

 

Philly will have a day of reckoning but they have a Super Bowl to show for it.  Maybe just maybe Beane should follow suit and get Garrett.  

[Einstein's Dog]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Why are you glad though? They can do it and add void years. We won’t feel the big cap hits for years.

Because the FO philosophy of not paying big money to RBs is smart.  I don't want large expenditure and void years for an RB.

[Magox]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

I think he’ll hold out some of this year and a longer one next year if we plan on him keeping him under the tag for 26.  Just plan on using him for the next two years then letting him go.  Probably the smartest decision for the team.  But It’ll be the first time beanes played hard ball with a draft pick that has played very well.   

One of the big problems with this is that the cap hit would be much larger in 2026 since you couldn’t do anything to manipulate the cap hit.  And that this is very likely the last big contact he may be able to play for the rest of his life and risking that would definitely be seen as anti player from the players perspective. 

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

That’s what I was looking for earlier. 
 

It sounds like they are more just getting ahead of cap inflation. Not really resetting the market or drastically changing RB value.

Kinda.  A little bit of both.

[FireChans]

46 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Jalen Hurts signed a bigger contract than Josh, and the Eagles just did this. That is reality too.

Shhh don’t tell people we wasted Josh’s golden cap years on bums like Mario Addison and Shooting Star Loutoto and co. and paying Stef Diggs to not play here no mo. 
 

- Brandon Beane

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Because the FO philosophy of not paying big money to RBs is smart.  I don't want large expenditure and void years for an RB.

We’re still going to have money tied up in RB. It’ll just be 3 of them.

[Big Turk]

23 minutes ago, jwhit34 said:

Guess the RB based on the past two years' stats:

 

RB                                  Rush Yds            Rec Yds     Total TDs

1                                  2,357                  833               31

2                                 2,134                   579               18

3                                 2,131                    703               24

4                                 2,050                  685               24

5                                 2,097                  404               16

6                                 2,078                  453               14

7                                 2,084                  549               11

 

#1 is clearly a cut above the others. If you use 34 games (I didn't adjust for games missed) then #s 2-7 averaged between 74-83 total yards per game, so really no difference at all. There is wide disparity in TDs, and for most of them they varied a lot year-to-year.

 

The reveal:

#1 is Jahmyr Gibbs. He is great, imagine if he didn't split time with Montgomery.

 

Most people on this board probably can guess which one is James Cook in no more than 2 guesses. Knowing his 2024 TDs is a dead giveaway.

 

Cook is #3

Joe Mixon is #4

 

#2 is James Conner

 

#5 is Chuba Hubbard

#6 is Najee Harris

#7 is Tony Pollard

 

What's the point? Outside of Gibbs, these are not top tier RBs and their stats are essentially the same except for the TDs. Some have played with pedestrian QBs at best (Hubbard, Harris, Conner), Pollard split time in Dallas 1 year and played on an awful TEN team, which leaves Mixon and Cook. 

 

Cook is a really nice player but he is not super distinguishable from the mid-level RBs in the league. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Think you forgot to look at YPC...Mixon averages 4.05 over that time, Cook averages 4.9(3rd in the NFL over his career in the last 3 years only to Devone Achane and Jahmyr Gibbs). Mixon gets a lot more carries to get less production. Also considering 2 year ago Cook was #6 in the NFL in scrimmage yards and averages 9.6 yards per reception which is 2nd in the NFL over that time for Running backs with at least 40 catches to Samaje Perine, a 3rd down receiving back, you made the mistake of looking at overall numbers without any context of how they achieved them.  

 

Cook's lack of touches played a part in his "pedestrian numbers" as you would put it.

 

Essentially you are vastly underrating Cook. He is among the best in the NFL on a per touch basis.

Edited 4 hours ago by Big Turk

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

One of the big problems with this is that the cap hit would be much larger in 2026 since you couldn’t do anything to manipulate the cap hit.  And that this is very likely the last big contact he may be able to play for the rest of his life and risking that would definitely be seen as anti player from the players perspective. 

Kinda.  A little bit of both.

It’s gonna reset the market in theory because guys are gonna say Saquon got $20M AAV in 2025 so we want X. But he really isn’t getting that. 
 

Honestly I think the Eagles may be in the Myles Garrett business. They are opening a lot of space.

[uticaclub]

10 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Maybe Cook could have been had for $12.5 but most of us in the Bills forum are glad they didn't do it.   It's been the FO philosophy not to pay RBs big money, and its been a good one.  Don't do it for a two down back.  Ideally you would have Cook play out his last year here - he's good value now.  But I could understand the FO if they jettisoned Cook as part of a package in a trade - Cook looks like a potential problem.

 

Ty Johnson should be re-signed, he's good value and a good player.  R Davis can be groomed to be the lead back and draft another one.  An RB by committee is a smart way to go.

Our FO never had to resign a running back. Shady was done & Singletary wasn't good enough to get a second contract.

 

Ty Johnson might want to get paid too, that's something that want been discussed

[folz]

I'm very happy for Saquon (to have the season he did and to get the bag) after injuries and the Giants nearly derailed his career.

 

 

And I love me some James Cook, but he and his agent should not be using Saquon as any kind of reference.

 

2024

Barkley:  2,283 total yards, 15 TDs, 388 touches, 74% snap count

Cook:  1,267 total yards, 18 TDs, 245 touches, 48% snap count

 

Saquon just had the 13th all-time best season in yards from scrimmage in the history of the NFL. Cook was 26th in yards from scrimmage just in relation to other 2024 players. If Cook ever gets close to Saquan's numbers and starts hurdling defenders backwards, then we can talk 15-20 million. Otherwise, Saquon should not be relevant in any negotiations with Cook. Completely different stratosphere (the same for McCaffrey, when healthy).

 

If you remove Barkley and McCaffrey from the conversation, the next 10 highest paid RBs are:

 

    Player                      Salary yearly avg.     Year contract was signed

1. Jonathan Taylor          14.0 million                        2023

2. Alvin Kamara              12.25 million                      2024

3. Josh Jacobs               12.0 million                        2024

4. James Connor            9.5 million                         2024

5. David Montgomery    9.125 million                       2024

6. Rhamondre S.             9.0 milllion                         2024

7. Joe Mixon                    8.5 million                         2024

8. Chubba Hubbard        8.3 million                         2024

9. D'Andre Swift              8.0 million                         2024

10. Derrick Henry            8.0 million                         2024

 

Obviously, no one on that list had as many TDs as Cook did this year, but 8 of those 10 players did have more scrimmage yards than James did this year.  Now, in 2023, James was 3rd in yards from scrimmage for a RB (besting everyone on that list in 2023), but in 2023, he also only had 6 total TDs (as opposed to the monster number this year). And with Taylor, despite the injuries, he has still had two season better than James' best season.

 

So, I'm not sure how much James Cook should make, and I'd love to see him remain a Bill (if they can mutually agree on a number), but I definitely think he is over-valuing himself a bit at this point and I don't want to sacrifice other areas of the team. James is very good, but would the drop off to Davis, Johnson and say a rookie with similar skills to James (even if not quite as good) be as detrimental to the team overall as would over-spending big money on Cook and possibly sacrificing elsewhere? 🤷‍♂️

 

Either way, the Barkley contract should not make a difference in Cook's negotiations (though I'm sure it will---every RB's agent will be using that number to up their client's contracts). But by how much? All of the guys on the list above just signed last year (except for Taylor). How much does the increased value of RBs and the Barkley contract raise the rate? Last year it was basically 8-12 million for similar players to Cook. Are we really jumping to 15+ in just one year?

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Our FO never had to resign a running back. Shady was done & Singletary wasn't good enough to get a second contract.

 

Ty Johnson might want to get paid too, that's something that want been discussed

I think it’s more likely our franchise overvalues RB’s.

 

we don’t know if they were ever in the market for the bigger names in FA. 
 

We do know they spend far too much draft capital on them. 

[Einstein's Dog]

2 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

Our FO never had to resign a running back. Shady was done & Singletary wasn't good enough to get a second contract.

 

Ty Johnson might want to get paid too, that's something that want been discussed

They chose not to extend Singletary.  Singletary got paid elsewhere.  If they were going to extend Cook the FO would have wanted to give him a guarantee at market value now for a few years in exchange for the early guaranteed money and signing bonus - much like Shakir.

 

The market value of RBs like Cook - D Henry/J Mixon had been around $8M/yr.  Cook is talking $15M, not even in the ballpark.

[3rdand12]

2 hours ago, appoo said:

Bills can't have a 45M-50M QB and a 15M RB. That's just reality. If it came down to it. I'd rather trade cook for a 2nd or late 1st, resign Ty Johnson, and draft a 4th/5th round RB and start Davis. 

 

And then use all them high draft picks to reinvigorate the talent on D

How is it the Eagles have more talent than Us across the board but we cant afford both an elite QB and RB ?

 

13.5 is as far as I go with Cook if they are keeping Davis and Ty around.

[Low Positive]

2 minutes ago, 3rdand12 said:

How is it the Eagles have more talent than Us across the board but we cant afford both an elite QB and RB ?

 

13.5 is as far as I go with Cook if they are keeping Davis and Ty around.

Because they are pushing it all down the road with void years. I expect Howie Roseman to "retire" in about 5 years and let it all be someone else's problem.