UPDATE: DK Metcalf requests trade to a contender

[Nihilarian]

The last two playoff losses were both lost by 3 points each, one by a missed FG, one by a dropped pass. The biggest reason for those two losses in my view was because the defense was decimated in 2023, and starting a linebacker who was off the street while going on vacation two weeks prior.

 

In 2024, Taylor Rapp was injured and replaced by a rookie, and the starting CB went out with a concussion while Mahomes picked on Elam the rest of the game. It wouldn't have looked so bad if the Bills had any semblance of a pass rush. Like I've stated previously, Mahomes had all day to throw while the Chiefs scored more points against that Buffalo defense than they had against any other team all season long.

 

If the Bills don't fix their defense, it won't matter a darn, who the receivers are.... like the saying goes... "defense wins Championships", and the Eagles just proved that point in the SB! The Bucs proved it too in 2020 in the SB against the very best team in the NFL the last six seasons.

[Einstein's Dog]

42 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I want to add a layer to that. They had the fewest turnovers in the NFL and the 2nd most takeaways. Their turnover +\- was WAY better than anyone else. Is that sustainable? That’s a rhetorical question. Additionally, the numbers all improved significantly once Cooper came aboard (regardless of his stats). It’s safe to assume that the threat of him opened up the field some for everyone else and he’s a free agent. Without the threat of a vertical passing game, teams will defend the Bills like Baltimore did in the first matchup.
 

Why do people think that you can’t address both the offense AND defense? The Bills have picks, cap space (or will) and some young players that other teams may want. They have MORE holes on defense but one of their biggest holes remains on the boundary. 

And I'll add to this, it's Beane's job to have a plan and put values and odds of happenings for each event/player.  For instance, he may (as many of us do) want Garrett but if the deal looks like it can't materialize until June he may not want to put all his eggs in one basket. 

 

I think the Bills have the cap and draft ammo for a move and Beane is feeling out where he can use it.  If Garrett and Crosby are not in his range, maybe DK could be.  Then he makes the big move for DK and fills in the defense with remaining money and draft capital.

 

It would be nice to see a big move for Garrett and pay/add D Adams but I wouldn't mind a DK move along with a pay/add Mack.

[Magox]

1 minute ago, Nihilarian said:

The last two playoff losses were both lost by 3 points each, one by a missed FG, one by a dropped pass. The biggest reason for those two losses in my view was because the defense was decimated in 2023, and starting a linebacker who was off the street while going on vacation two weeks prior.

 

In 2024, Taylor Rapp was injured and replaced by a rookie, and the starting CB went out with a concussion while Mahomes picked on Elam the rest of the game. It wouldn't have looked so bad if the Bills had any semblance of a pass rush. Like I've stated previously, Mahomes had all day to throw while the Chiefs scored more points against that Buffalo defense than they had against any other team all season long.

 

If the Bills don't fix their defense, it won't matter a darn, who the receivers are.... like the saying goes... "defense wins Championships", and the Eagles just proved that point in the SB! The Bucs proved it too in 2020 in the SB against the very best team in the NFL the last six seasons.

I agree with the thrust of your post, wholeheartedly.   I do quibble with Mahomes having all day to throw.   That’s not what happened, Mahomes got the ball out in 2.29 seconds vs the Bills meaning that he was hitting his 1st read.   The problem that game was more scheme and on the DB’s.

 

To put things into perspective Mahomes got the ball out in 3.32 second against the Eagles, that is over a whole second more, meaning that the Eagles were snuffing out his 1st read and by the time he got to his second read the DL got to him to the point where he uncharacteristically began seeing ghosts and running into pressure.

[Nihilarian]

To put things in perspective here, the OP wants this team to spend nearly 30 million per on a limited WR in DK. What's more is... he is thinking of adding to that another 30 million on another WR in DeVante Adams. 

 

If this team is going to spend 30 mill on a player this offseason, trade, FA, whatever. My hope is it's a PASS RUSHER or two! In the past, I've been in the get Josh some help boat, O line, WR, TE. Now I think those areas might need some tweaking, but should be ok with everyone back. 

 

My thoughts are that the 2024 Buffalo Bills would have run roughshod over the Eagles and thus mostly negating their pass rush. They would have become so focused on stopping Cook & Co that Josh would have been fine. 

 

I would be fine going all in for the defensive side this offseason, as I'm just so dismayed about the defensive injuries at the end of the season, the last few years.

 

 

[SCBills]

31 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

The last two playoff losses were both lost by 3 points each, one by a missed FG, one by a dropped pass. The biggest reason for those two losses in my view was because the defense was decimated in 2023, and starting a linebacker who was off the street while going on vacation two weeks prior.

 

In 2024, Taylor Rapp was injured and replaced by a rookie, and the starting CB went out with a concussion while Mahomes picked on Elam the rest of the game. It wouldn't have looked so bad if the Bills had any semblance of a pass rush. Like I've stated previously, Mahomes had all day to throw while the Chiefs scored more points against that Buffalo defense than they had against any other team all season long.

 

If the Bills don't fix their defense, it won't matter a darn, who the receivers are.... like the saying goes... "defense wins Championships", and the Eagles just proved that point in the SB! The Bucs proved it too in 2020 in the SB against the very best team in the NFL the last six seasons.

 

Fair point, but as pointed out above, the Chiefs constantly exploit our scheme in the playoffs.  Maybe better players changes that, but we also might want to have a philosophy change on the types of players we rely on.  Maybe it's just routine bad luck, but the Bills Defense gets decimated by injury every postseason.  At some point, it's more than just a coincidence.  

 

Two years ago, no linebackers and barely any corners.  This year no Rapp, no Benford.

 

For me, if you can get a guy like DK, you try.  And I wouldn't operate as if it's DK or Myles Garrett.  Try for both.   If we get both, great... maybe that means Cook and Bernard aren't long term options on this team so they're combined salary goes towards DK.   

 

Fine by me.  We can replace those two.  A guy like DK... for Josh Allen... that just doesn't grow on trees.

[qwksilver]

Seeing what was Deebo traded for (a 5th rounder) hopefully lowers the Seahawks asking price....

[Buffalo_Stampede]

36 minutes ago, qwksilver said:

Seeing what was Deebo traded for (a 5th rounder) hopefully lowers the Seahawks asking price....

WR value is all over the place. Deebo is 2 years older. Metcalf probably a 2nd.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Nihilarian said:

The last two playoff losses were both lost by 3 points each, one by a missed FG, one by a dropped pass. The biggest reason for those two losses in my view was because the defense was decimated in 2023, and starting a linebacker who was off the street while going on vacation two weeks prior.

 

In 2024, Taylor Rapp was injured and replaced by a rookie, and the starting CB went out with a concussion while Mahomes picked on Elam the rest of the game. It wouldn't have looked so bad if the Bills had any semblance of a pass rush. Like I've stated previously, Mahomes had all day to throw while the Chiefs scored more points against that Buffalo defense than they had against any other team all season long.

 

If the Bills don't fix their defense, it won't matter a darn, who the receivers are.... like the saying goes... "defense wins Championships", and the Eagles just proved that point in the SB! The Bucs proved it too in 2020 in the SB against the very best team in the NFL the last six seasons.

The Eagles somehow managed starting a couple rookies. 

I guess just one rookie second round pick starting was the kiss of death.

[msw2112]

On 2/28/2025 at 12:13 PM, HappyDays said:

 

I just don't understand this thinking. We're saying no to an elite player that is a perfect fit with Allen, in favor of spending more resources on the side of the ball that literally never shows up in the playoffs?

 

Yes.

 

The current Bills offense put up 29 points against at tough KC defense.  That should be enough.  The defense needs some better resources.  A healthy Von Miller in his prime would have been that kind of difference maker, versus an aging, post-injury Von Miller.

 

Don't get me wrong, I wish the Bills had drafted Metcalf and I would love to see him in a Bills uniform.  I'm just saying that a $30M+ for a WR would be a huge cap hit that would require making sacrifices elsewhere.  Plus, the Bills have been more successful (or just as successful) with the "everybody eats" offense than with a single star WR.

 

I've said this in other posts - to say "you don't understand this thinking" is a bit over the top.  To say "I don't agree with this thinking" makes a lot more sense.  People are entitled to have different opinions.  I completely understand your opinion that the Bills should not focus resources on defense because, it seems that regardless what they do, the defense ultimately fails in the playoffs, and as such better to go all-in on the offense.  If 29 points isn't enough to beat the Chiefs, then get more playmakers on offense and score 40.  So I DO understand your thinking and don't think it's out of line at all.

 

The Eagles are paying AJ Brown $32M per year and I think that Jalen Hurts may make more than Allen at this point and the Eagles just won the Super Bowl.  But Brown was not the reason they won the title.  It was the defensive line getting tons of pressure on Mahomes without the need to send any blitzers.

 

So in my opinion, if the Bills are going to invest big money in any non-QB position, it should be the defensive line and not WR.  Let Coleman develop and go out and draft some outside speed on a cheap rookie contract.

[colin]

2 hours ago, qwksilver said:

Seeing what was Deebo traded for (a 5th rounder) hopefully lowers the Seahawks asking price....

debo for a 5th and he's getting under 22 a year makes me think dk won't get the money or seattle the picks discussed here.

 

i'd trade a 3rd or whatever for dk and pay him 20-25.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Fits the same role at a smaller cost. If released he won’t count against the compensatory formula. Similar player to John Brown.

 

 

[Warriorspikes51]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Fits the same role at a smaller cost. If released he won’t count against the compensatory formula. Similar player to John Brown.

 

 

He's 32. 

[Low Positive]

5 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

He's 32. 

Unfortunately, Lockett has fallen off the WR cliff over the past two years. Good WRs don't usually hit FA or the trade market until after their production has collapsed. The only exceptions are guys that are such divas that teams need to clear the lockerroom like Diggs in Minnesota or OBJ for every team.

 

Also, the sad fact is that most of the best young WRs are on bad teams because they get drafted so high. So guys like Marvin Harrison Jr., Brian Thomas Jr., and Malik Nabors will waste their prime on bad teams.  An elite WR can make a good team great, but he can't make a bad team good. Only a QB and an elite OL can do that.

[HappyDays]

17 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Fits the same role at a smaller cost. If released he won’t count against the compensatory formula. Similar player to John Brown.

 

 

 

I don't love that he'll be 33 when the season starts. His production has declined a ton over the past two seasons. If we still need some kind of downfield WR then sure give him a low cost one year deal but that would be as a last resort after exhausting all other options.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

31 minutes ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

He's 32. 

Yeah. He’s still fast. Offers a speed element and skillset to get behind a defense. 

He’d be a piece of the offense, not a focal point. They still say they want the “everybody eats” approach. 

[Mat68]

Metcalf’s speed and size outside opens up a lot of room for everyone else.  Allen having a transformer at WR would unlock the deep ball in a way Allen hadn't experienced.  I could see Metcalf having a Moss in NE type run with Allen.   

[Bills!Win!]

8 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Metcalf’s speed and size outside opens up a lot of room for everyone else.  Allen having a transformer at WR would unlock the deep ball in a way Allen hadn't experienced.  I could see Metcalf having a Moss in NE type run with Allen.   

This. Everyone seems to be missing this point 

[Dillenger4]

Fix the D. Not the DK.

[Mat68]

Imo Buffalo has been good and not great anywhere.  The run game is arguable.  Getting Allen a player like DK would elevate the offense from good to great.  I think Garret, or name your pass rusher the Bills defense will be good.  

[Warriorspikes51]

Offer a 2nd, 4th and 6th  

Maybe DK would be similar here.....

but there's a very real chance he becomes absolutely terrifying with Allen throwing to him 

14 minutes ago, Dillenger4 said:

Fix the D. Not the DK.

The Bills...if serious and aggressive enough can do both.