Starting this year, I want to see Josh Allen's completion % Go up, Way up.

[Buffalo4Life01]

5 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

Let's not get hyperbolic about the lack of weapons around him.  He has one of the best o-line's in football, a decent running back trio, two above average Tight Ends, and Shakir (okay, they might want to work on WR).  I don't question his clutchness factor but I do question his decision making at times late in games or overtime.

Again, no one is saying Allen doesn't have decent weapons around him.  But since he entered the league he has been constantly scrutinized due to narratives that simply refuse to go away and we all know what I'm talking about.   Also, does anyone here really not believe Allen would have just as many rings as Mahomes does if he played for KC?  Anyone really think Mahomes would have a ring if he played in Buffalo instead of Allen? Coaching, clock management, and game management have proven a huge advantage for Patty over the course of his career, luxuries that Allen has never been afforded.  I don't think either is more clutch than the other.  I think Mahomes has had more talent 'on average' than Josh has for most of his career and the coaching he's had has been lightyears better.  

[Matt_In_NH]

On 2/27/2025 at 4:43 PM, Bermuda Triangle said:

The Houston game killed his completion percentage.  Take that game out, and he goes from 63.6% to 65.8%

It was windy in that dome

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

I want to see the pct of games where the defense actually helps go up. Like to every one of them. Maybe have a few games where the offense doesn’t have to be literally perfect 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I want to see the pct of games where the defense actually helps go up. Like to every one of them. Maybe have a few games where the offense doesn’t have to be literally perfect 

 

Even in a down year for the D there were 3 or 4 of these. There have been plenty over the years. If you mean in the post season, fair enough. 

[WNYFAN1]

3 hours ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

I want to see the pct of games where the defense actually helps go up. Like to every one of them. Maybe have a few games where the offense doesn’t have to be literally perfect 

The Bills literally had the best starting drive position in the entire league this year

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/#drives::9

 

I suspect that helped Allen and the offense quite a bit!

[Don Otreply]

Starting this upcoming season I would like to see the defense be sixty percent as good as our offense is , that alone would likely get us a championship, 

 

that is all,

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

22 minutes ago, WNYFAN1 said:

The Bills literally had the best starting drive position in the entire league this year

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2024/#drives::9

 

I suspect that helped Allen and the offense quite a bit!

Do not try for one second to act like this defense was good. People need to stop finding the most ridiculous stats to try and prove something we all saw

[WNYFAN1]

1 hour ago, Brianmoorman4jesus said:

Do not try for one second to act like this defense was good. People need to stop finding the most ridiculous stats to try and prove something we all saw

So average drive start is a ridiculous stat?

 

Ok, how about this. The Bill's defense was third in the entire league in take-aways with 32. Now is some of that luck? Absolutely. Did Allen and the offense benefit A TON from it? You bet your a$$ they did!

[The Cincinnati Kid]

Wake me up when the offseason ends.
 

This is dumb.

 

Josh is great. MVP, in fact. Just enjoy the ride. It won’t happen again. Allen is 1 of 1. We can bicker about completion percentage, interceptions, fumbles, playoff losses and clutch moments, but why? I choose to enjoy watching the best player in the history of the Buffalo Bills while he plays for my team. I’d love a super bowl, but ultimately it doesn’t do anything more or less for me than watching my Team have an amazing season year after year because of Josh. 

[Shaw66]

On 2/27/2025 at 4:39 PM, SoonerBillsFan said:

This offense is a version of the Sean Payton offense he ran in N.O. correct?  In Drew Brees 15 seasons he had 7 seasons of 70+ % completion rating and 4 more over 67%.   If we aren't force feeding a #1 WR, then I would like, since its his 2nd season in this offense, then he should make a huge jump in Completion %.

I haven't read any of this thread, so I apologize if this is just what others have said, but this idea you expressed has been bouncing around in my head for a week now. 

 

I would discourage you about getting your hopes up about completion percentage.  I was on that train a year ago, and I think it was misguided.  Josh started 2024 with a lot of high percentage games, but as the season went on, the 70% completion expectation proved unrealistic.  

 

I don't think using Brees as a model makes sense.  He played in a different era, an era when the passing game was taking over pro football, and many defenses simply couldn't stop the right QB in the right offense.  Defenses have adjusted, and if you try to beat teams with your passing game, the defenses can stop you.  That's why the running game has come back so strong.  In the past year or two, every coach has realized that passing isn't as easy as it was 10 years ago, and they've turned to the running game to get the yards that are tougher to get in the passing game.  

 

For example, the bubble screens and the rub plays were easy completions and easy yards three or four years ago, and they no longer are.  Now, they're just another part of a varied attack - if you feature that game, defenses will stop it.  

 

The result of all of this is that passing is harder than it was, and having a consistently high completion percentage has become tougher.  

 

The Bills are on the right track - a varied, multiple offense that attacks all over the field is necessary, because the defenses will stop you if you tend too much in one direction or another. 

 

In 2024, three teams got just barely over 70% completions - Detroit, Tampa Bay, and the Bengals, and all teams except the Browns and the Colts got over 60%.  Bills were 63.3.  I think the best we can expect is to bump that percentage 5 points or so, and on 500 attempts that's 25 more completions.  That sounds like a lot, but it's only one or two more completions a game.  That would be nice, of course, but they aren't the kind of numbers that are going to change a team's fortunes dramatically.

 

And, of course, the Bills don't need a huge increase in offensive performance.  In 2024, they were second in total yards, seventh in passing TDs and first in rushing TDs.  So I'm not being a downer in saying that you shouldn't expect a big increase in completion percentage.  As we've all said here, over and over for three or four months, it's the defense that needs to make a big step up. 

[GASabresIUFan]

While I agree with much of what @Shaw66 wrote above, getting improvement from Coleman, finding a boundary WR who can get open and a rebound from Kincaid will help the completion %.  
 

 

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I haven't read any of this thread, so I apologize if this is just what others have said, but this idea you expressed has been bouncing around in my head for a week now. 

 

I would discourage you about getting your hopes up about completion percentage.  I was on that train a year ago, and I think it was misguided.  Josh started 2024 with a lot of high percentage games, but as the season went on, the 70% completion expectation proved unrealistic.  

 

I don't think using Brees as a model makes sense.  He played in a different era, an era when the passing game was taking over pro football, and many defenses simply couldn't stop the right QB in the right offense.  Defenses have adjusted, and if you try to beat teams with your passing game, the defenses can stop you.  That's why the running game has come back so strong.  In the past year or two, every coach has realized that passing isn't as easy as it was 10 years ago, and they've turned to the running game to get the yards that are tougher to get in the passing game.  

 

For example, the bubble screens and the rub plays were easy completions and easy yards three or four years ago, and they no longer are.  Now, they're just another part of a varied attack - if you feature that game, defenses will stop it.  

 

The result of all of this is that passing is harder than it was, and having a consistently high completion percentage has become tougher.  

 

The Bills are on the right track - a varied, multiple offense that attacks all over the field is necessary, because the defenses will stop you if you tend too much in one direction or another. 

 

In 2024, three teams got just barely over 70% completions - Detroit, Tampa Bay, and the Bengals, and all teams except the Browns and the Colts got over 60%.  Bills were 63.3.  I think the best we can expect is to bump that percentage 5 points or so, and on 500 attempts that's 25 more completions.  That sounds like a lot, but it's only one or two more completions a game.  That would be nice, of course, but they aren't the kind of numbers that are going to change a team's fortunes dramatically.

 

And, of course, the Bills don't need a huge increase in offensive performance.  In 2024, they were second in total yards, seventh in passing TDs and first in rushing TDs.  So I'm not being a downer in saying that you shouldn't expect a big increase in completion percentage.  As we've all said here, over and over for three or four months, it's the defense that needs to make a big step up. 

As always great stuff

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

4 hours ago, WNYFAN1 said:

So average drive start is a ridiculous stat?

 

Ok, how about this. The Bill's defense was third in the entire league in take-aways with 32. Now is some of that luck? Absolutely. Did Allen and the offense benefit A TON from it? You bet your a$$ they did!

The defense was horrendous all year. They relied heavily on turnovers and stopped absolutely nobody. That’s what really happened. The defense is why we were eliminated again, for the 6th straight season. That’s the problem with the team. The grey area of people not understanding that is over. Even the Bills finally understand 

[Cash]

On 3/4/2025 at 12:13 PM, Shaw66 said:

I haven't read any of this thread, so I apologize if this is just what others have said, but this idea you expressed has been bouncing around in my head for a week now. 

 

I would discourage you about getting your hopes up about completion percentage.  I was on that train a year ago, and I think it was misguided.  Josh started 2024 with a lot of high percentage games, but as the season went on, the 70% completion expectation proved unrealistic.  

 

I don't think using Brees as a model makes sense.  He played in a different era, an era when the passing game was taking over pro football, and many defenses simply couldn't stop the right QB in the right offense.  Defenses have adjusted, and if you try to beat teams with your passing game, the defenses can stop you.  That's why the running game has come back so strong.  In the past year or two, every coach has realized that passing isn't as easy as it was 10 years ago, and they've turned to the running game to get the yards that are tougher to get in the passing game.  

 

For example, the bubble screens and the rub plays were easy completions and easy yards three or four years ago, and they no longer are.  Now, they're just another part of a varied attack - if you feature that game, defenses will stop it.  

 

The result of all of this is that passing is harder than it was, and having a consistently high completion percentage has become tougher.  

 

The Bills are on the right track - a varied, multiple offense that attacks all over the field is necessary, because the defenses will stop you if you tend too much in one direction or another. 

 

In 2024, three teams got just barely over 70% completions - Detroit, Tampa Bay, and the Bengals, and all teams except the Browns and the Colts got over 60%.  Bills were 63.3.  I think the best we can expect is to bump that percentage 5 points or so, and on 500 attempts that's 25 more completions.  That sounds like a lot, but it's only one or two more completions a game.  That would be nice, of course, but they aren't the kind of numbers that are going to change a team's fortunes dramatically.

 

And, of course, the Bills don't need a huge increase in offensive performance.  In 2024, they were second in total yards, seventh in passing TDs and first in rushing TDs.  So I'm not being a downer in saying that you shouldn't expect a big increase in completion percentage.  As we've all said here, over and over for three or four months, it's the defense that needs to make a big step up. 

 

One other thing to add on the Brees comparison front: Brees is probably the most accurate QB in NFL history.  If he's not #1, he's at least close to it.  Allen's accuracy is quite good at this point, but I don't think he'll ever get on the same level as Brees, and that's fine.  We shouldn't need our reigning MVP to turn into the 1st or 2nd most accurate QB of all time.

 

Personally, I think completion % is a decent but not great metric for QB play and offensive success.  I certainly don't want Allen's to be on the low end.  (Which, these days, is probably anything around 60% or lower.)  If he threatens his career high next year, that's probably a good thing, but it's far from the only path to success.  This past year, we had a ton of WR screens and a few designed RB swing passes that represented easy completions and helped Allen's completion %.  But we also saw defenses get better at defending them as the year went on.  If we kept hammering them all year, Allen's completion % might have been even higher, but with a TON of completions for 1-3 yards that didn't help the offense.

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

One other thing to add on the Brees comparison front: Brees is probably the most accurate QB in NFL history.  If he's not #1, he's at least close to it.  Allen's accuracy is quite good at this point, but I don't think he'll ever get on the same level as Brees, and that's fine.  We shouldn't need our reigning MVP to turn into the 1st or 2nd most accurate QB of all time.

 

Personally, I think completion % is a decent but not great metric for QB play and offensive success.  I certainly don't want Allen's to be on the low end.  (Which, these days, is probably anything around 60% or lower.)  If he threatens his career high next year, that's probably a good thing, but it's far from the only path to success.  This past year, we had a ton of WR screens and a few designed RB swing passes that represented easy completions and helped Allen's completion %.  But we also saw defenses get better at defending them as the year went on.  If we kept hammering them all year, Allen's completion % might have been even higher, but with a TON of completions for 1-3 yards that didn't help the offense.

This is excellent and right on the money. Brees was amazingly accurate. 

 

And you're also correct about the wide receiver screens and other short throws to the boundaries. The Bills relied heavily on those early in the season, and defense is adjusted. The simple fact is that passing is becoming increasingly difficult in the NFL, because defenses have figured out how to stop the deep ball and to make even intermediate passing more difficult.