The case for extending Greg Rousseau

[Magox]

8 minutes ago, RunTheBall said:

Rousseau sucked in the AFC Championship game. He’d been setting the edge all year and he gave it up at least 5x in the AFCCG including Mahomes TD. I don’t care if you didn’t see it on film, after the first 2 times Reid baited your ass inside you should have learned. I can’t believe how often he gave that edge up.

 

So I’m in the let him play out his 5th year camp. If he explodes, we pay the man. Otherwise it’s another Tremaine Edmunds dump and hopefully we get a good comp pick. 

 

We can’t keep running back the same D-line that is the reason we get bounced out of the playoffs every single year.

 

 

3 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

He's a good player most of the time, just not a game wrecker. He's a 20 million dollar man for me.

 

He's not a game wrecker, but you can't get a game wrecker at $20M.

 

Game wreckers that are going up for a new contract will all be $30M+ a year.

 

You can still sign a game wrecker for the other side to go along with Rousseau.

 

The Eagles have 6 guys they are paying over $20M AAV and another 6 guys that they are paying $12M - $18M.  

 

You can do it, you just have to have an owner willing to pony up the up front real $$$ 

[Magox]

7 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

He's a good player most of the time, just not a game wrecker. He's a 20 million dollar man for me.

I think I misunderstood, you are saying he's worth $20M AAV rather than $24M ?  I can understand that, and that is a defensible position.

[SoCal Deek]

Is Groot worth more than Shakir? I realize they pay different positions on a different pay scale, but when you consider it from a strict 'value' standpoint I can't see justifying any more than Shakir just go....and probably less.

[BarleyNY]

6 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

You are assuming that the only way to manipulate the cap figures is by spreading out the signing bonus to the remaining 5 years.    There is a reason why teams use the voided years, it is to provide cap flexibility.  Essentially when the voided years are first put into place they often times are empty or near empty shells.    The signing bonus in itself wouldn't be added to the voided years, however the base salary years from the active years can be converted to a future signing bonus which then can be spread out to the remaining years (The 5 year resets with each time you restructure it).  

 

As an example, if the Bills lets say had a $15M base pay salary with a certain player in 2027, they could convert that to a bonus and then spread a large portion of that to the remaining years including the voided years. 

 

There are many ways to manipulate the cap.  You just have to have an owner that is willing to pay the huge up front $$.  

 

Take a look at the AJ Brown extension.  They added 4 voided years and were able to spread out the cap hit.   It's a game of musical chairs, at some point the huge cap hits will take place, and it will be when the player is no longer on the roster meaning that there will be a day of reckoning.   

 

Josh Allen is going to be turning 29 years old, if you manipulate the cap with the anticipated huge cap growth, you don't have to face that day of reckoning in a debilitating manner for another 5 years out and even then you can still play musical chairs with the cap if Allen is still playing the way he is.

 

 

 

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi088ja7uGLAxX2QzABHaoWBW4QFnoECBIQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.spotrac.com%2Fnfl%2Fplayer%2F_%2Fid%2F29087%2Faj-brown%23%3A~%3Atext%3D2024%2D2029%20Extension%2Caverage%20annual%20salary%20of%20%2432%2C000%2C000.&usg=AOvVaw1Ue4TgRQJ-yayW0r45rMkf&opi=89978449

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I understand the cap and void years very well. What you wrote in this post is largely correct. I’d note that void years after year 5 of a contract are not included at year 1. Common practice is to add them when salary and/or roster bonuses are converted to signing bonuses in year two and beyond.

 

I’ve advocated for the Bills to adopt an aggressive cap management strategy like the Eagles and Browns employ. But that would require Pegula to open the purse strings and spend at a higher level overall. It’s not about timing of payments to the players. Salary conversions to signing bonuses are  ow almost always paid on the same schedule as they would have been as salary. But the payments do become guaranteed. 

 

Just as a point of clarity, the inclusion of 4 void years to AJ Brown’s one year contract only pushes 80% of his signing bonuses amount out one season (unless he is re-signed before the new league year starts).

 

There also seems to be a misunderstanding about the purpose of such an aggressive cap management style. It is not so that teams can overpay players. That would defeat the advantage it can create - accumulating more talent and more elite players. That only happens if a team pays market value to the right players. 

[JP51]

33 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

No matter what your opinion is though you're not going to sign a game wrecking defensive end to a fresh contract at 24M. The cap just went up in 30 million is the starting point for these guys.

Fair enough... literally I am in the whatever it takes crowd... 27mm... 30mm... I think it is that important if we want to get over the top... 

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

I understand the cap and void years very well. What you wrote in this post is largely correct. I’d note that void years after year 5 of a contract are not included at year 1. Common practice is to add them when salary and/or roster bonuses are converted to signing bonuses in year two and beyond.

 

I’ve advocated for the Bills to adopt an aggressive cap management strategy like the Eagles and Browns employ. But that would require Pegula to open the purse strings and spend at a higher level overall. It’s not about timing of payments to the players. Salary conversions to signing bonuses are  ow almost always paid on the same schedule as they would have been as salary. But the payments do become guaranteed. 

 

Just as a point of clarity, the inclusion of 4 void years to AJ Brown’s one year contract only pushes 80% of his signing bonuses amount out one season (unless he is re-signed before the new league year starts).

 

There also seems to be a misunderstanding about the purpose of such an aggressive cap management style. It is not so that teams can overpay players. That would defeat the advantage it can create - accumulating more talent and more elite players. That only happens if a team pays market value to the right players. 

 

I didn't say it was to "overpay" players, I gave a perfectly reasonable and entirely objective analysis backed up by statistical facts that puts Rousseau in the top 15% at his position.   It's right there for anyone to see, I have posted it with links up above.  In fact, even Sportrac has him at around a $25M AAV.   So you may disagree with that, but it's not an overpay based on his overall stats.   

 

Also, in regards to AJ Brown, they could still manipulate the cap numbers to that they don't have to take that gigantic $51M cap hit in 2030 and spread it out to remaining voided years.

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

There also seems to be a misunderstanding about the purpose of such an aggressive cap management style. It is not so that teams can overpay players. That would defeat the advantage it can create - accumulating more talent and more elite players. That only happens if a team pays market value to the right players. 

 

I tend to agree with your points.

Although, I believe that IF the Bills got a true elite pass rusher opposite Groot (who needs to go back to his true position over

the RT), him and Oliver's worth would go up a lot. 

 

The DL can be fixed fairly easy IF that elite edge rusher is signed along with the current (and a draft pick or 2) DL.

As cap goes, Oliver can be moved on from after next year and replaced with a DT from this year's draft.  

 

Beane needs to spread his wings a little and I can see a Great shot at a Lombardi.

[Magox]

9 minutes ago, SoCal Deek said:

Is Groot worth more than Shakir? I realize they pay different positions on a different pay scale, but when you consider it from a strict 'value' standpoint I can't see justifying any more than Shakir just go....and probably less.

 

Depends on how you look at it.  Shakir is an excellent slot receiver but if you move him to the boundary he'd be a below average receiver.  Just from the slot perspective, he may be a higher end just slot guy then Rousseau as a DE.   I could make the argument that Shakir is a top 6/7 slot guy, and I can make a reasonable argument that Rousseau is a top 15 DE.    From that perspective Shakir excels at his position more so than Rousseau.   

 

But since Shakir cannot line up effectively from the boundary position, his value diminishes.   Shakir probably should have come in at around $18M AAV, the Bills got a hell of a deal on that signing.

[JerseyBills]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

Sure, I'd be happy to.

 

There is this cool tool provided by OVERTHECAP  https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills#google_vignette

If you click on the link You should be on the Bills team when you click the link and be able to scroll down and you’ll see where it shows 55 active players.

 

The first row will be the players, the second is cap number and the third and fourth are grouped together show dead money and 4th is cap savings.  
 

In that 3rd and 4th row grouping you will see a grey area where you can toggle the 6 options which are cut pre June 1, cut post June 1, trade pre June 1, post June 1, extension and restructure.

 

When you select any of those it changes the outcome on the 4th row cap savings.

 

Choose extend Cook, Shakir, Rousseau, Bernard, Benford, Josh Allen

 

Cut Daquan, Cut Von Miller  Pre June 1 (If you do post June 1 you get even more savings)

 

Restructure Dion Dawkins

 

This frees up over $40M in cap space.   Which brings back all the players and you still have lots of money to get new players!

Without looking,  the main thing that stuck out on D was generating turnovers, almost positive we had the best TO differential,  but that's not something that's sustainable year in and out, have to get better at DL and I think we see a massive difference 

[TheBeaneBandit]

30 minutes ago, JP51 said:

Fair enough... literally I am in the whatever it takes crowd... 27mm... 30mm... I think it is that important if we want to get over the top... 

Oh me too, just the cost is probably just a little more steep than you anticipated. Hell, I'd love to be wrong though. I actually like it 😂😆🤣

[JP51]

2 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

Oh me too, just the cost is probably just a little more steep than you anticipated. Hell, I'd love to be wrong though. I actually like it 😂😆🤣

Yeah, I have two solid weaknesses....  Being a draftnik and projecting salary... I am really bad at both... So if I am asked to wager... Ima bet you are correct over me... just sayin... 

[Mat68]

Three down end.  Above average pass rush.  I think he unlocks with a more consistent player on the other side.  Smoot and Epenesa are reserves not starters.  Groot was the best Dlineman on the team.  Put him in the Eagles and Groots perception would be much different.  

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

I didn't say it was to "overpay" players, I gave a perfectly reasonable and entirely objective analysis backed up by statistical facts that puts Rousseau in the top 15% at his position.   It's right there for anyone to see, I have posted it with links up above.  In fact, even Sportrac has him at around a $25M AAV.   So you may disagree with that, but it's not an overpay based on his overall stats.   

 

Also, in regards to AJ Brown, they could still manipulate the cap numbers to that they don't have to take that gigantic $51M cap hit in 2030 and spread it out to remaining voided years.

I disagree on Rousseau’s value and ranking. As for Spotrac & OTC’s valuations of players, they are very hit and miss. I do my own work. So why spend so much time on structure of a potential Rousseau deal? The only way we see aggressive structures of deals like that is if Pegula agrees to spend more. Otherwise it does us no real good.

 

Incorrect on Brown. All remaining void years accelerate into the first year a player is not on the team. That is subject to post 6/1 designation or release. If he plays out his deal they may extend him a year so they can use that designation and split the cap hit between two seasons. That’s their only option. 

Edited 3 hours ago by BarleyNY

[JerseyBills]

This is a very convincing argument to re extend Groot, I guess he doesn't feel like a difference maker but the #s prove otherwise, all depends on the $ though

[Magox]

1 minute ago, BarleyNY said:

I disagree on Rousseau’s value and ranking. As for Spotrac & OTC’s valuations of players, they are very hit and miss. I do my own work. So why spend so much time on structure of a potential Rousseau deal? The only way we see aggressive structures of deals like that is if Pegula agrees to spend more. Otherwise it does us no real good.

 

Incorrect on Brown. All remaining void years accelerate into the first year a player is not on the team. That is subject to post 6/1 designation or release. 

You can disagree on how you perceive his value but you can’t takeaway the stats.  His stats indicate he is a top 15 DE.
 

In regards to Brown, I never said he wouldn’t be on the team, you added that qualifier.  What I said is that they could be used which is a true statement

[Aussie Joe]

I’m still dirty on the way he played in the Championship game ….

Cant say I’m excited about paying him after that …but they are probably going to…

[BarleyNY]

21 minutes ago, Magox said:

You can disagree on how you perceive his value but you can’t takeaway the stats.  His stats indicate he is a top 15 DE.
 

In regards to Brown, I never said he wouldn’t be on the team, you added that qualifier.  What I said is that they could be used which is a true statement

What stats indicate Rousseau is a top 15% DE? That would put him in the top 10 Edge players unless you’re including depth players. (64x.15=9.6)

 

What qualifier? You said they could leave the cap hits from his 4 void years in place. That’s incorrect. Once he is no longer on the team, they accelerate to the current year (or next if after 6/1).

Edited 2 hours ago by BarleyNY

[Brand J]

48 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Three down end.  Above average pass rush.  I think he unlocks with a more consistent player on the other side.  Smoot and Epenesa are reserves not starters.  Groot was the best Dlineman on the team.  Put him in the Eagles and Groots perception would be much different.  

Josh Sweat looked like a man amongst boys in that SB, he whipped Joe Thuney over and over. Rousseau and Sweat mirror one another in production, except that Sweat is forecast as $19M/yr and there are talks of the Eagles letting him walk and going with Jalyx Hunt as his replacement.
 

Rousseau would look better with a stronger supporting cast, of course, but I’ve never seen him look as dominant as Sweat did in that SB. Well, with the exception of the opening game against Kyler Murray, but that was against Murray in game 1 of the year, not Mahomes in the playoffs.

[Magox]

25 minutes ago, Brand J said:

Josh Sweat looked like a man amongst boys in that SB, he whipped Joe Thuney over and over. Rousseau and Sweat mirror one another in production, except that Sweat is forecast as $19M/yr and there are talks of the Eagles letting him walk and going with Jalyx Hunt as his replacement.
 

Rousseau would look better with a stronger supporting cast, of course, but I’ve never seen him look as dominant as Sweat did in that SB. Well, with the exception of the opening game against Kyler Murray, but that was against Murray in game 1 of the year, not Mahomes in the playoffs.

No one can deny that he had a very good game, the problem is that in his 7 years he had one season above 10 sacks, his pass pressure rate, tackles for loss, stops, batted passes, tackles, forced fumbles, QB hits were all for the most part considerably worse than Rousseau

 

By any objective measure, Rousseau is considerably more valuable.

 

Just look if you don’t believe me and then look at Rousseau’s stats

 

https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/josh-sweat/50120

 

We’ve seen this story before, where a player plays amazing in the Super Bowl and then some team overpays for their services relative to their overall production 

[Brand J]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

No one can deny that he had a very good game, the problem is that in his 7 years he had one season above 10 sacks, his pass pressure rate, tackles for loss, stops, batted passes, tackles, forced fumbles, QB hits were all for the most part considerably worse than Rousseau

 

By any objective measure, Rousseau is considerably more valuable.

 

Just look if you don’t believe me and then look at Rousseau’s stats

 

https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/josh-sweat/50120

 

We’ve seen this story before, where a player plays amazing in the Super Bowl and then some team overpays for their services relative to their overall production 

I wouldn’t say “considerably” worse. Rousseau had had the better career, but it’s close. If Rousseau is considered Robin and we still need to find Batman, I’d rather Robin be at Sweat’s price point than Groot’s - just under $20M/yr. The Batman equivalent, if we can trade for him, will command over $30M/yr.
 

Not sure how PFF has Greg at 9 regular season sacks, Pro Football Reference has him at 8. Slight variances with other stats too.