The case for extending Greg Rousseau

[MJS]

7 minutes ago, Magox said:

I know the answer to this but I want to ask you, what percentage of the cap would go towards his 2025 and 2026 season if he signed a typical 4 year $24M AAV extension with 2 voided years?

I could look it up, but I really don't care to. I don't want him to make that much. Whatever percentage it is, I want it to be smaller.

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, Brand J said:

Thanks for the find. I was sitting home screaming “watch the QB boot!” I remember that’s what the Chiefs went to in their crucial 4th and 1 play against the 49ers in the SB, same side too - always to Mahomes right. That falls on the coaches and the player for situational awareness. I didn’t study an ounce of film and knew a boot was a high probability in that situation. 
 

I’d still pass at anything more than $18M/yr, that’d be my ceiling. I imagine the team will be drafting multiple DEs, not just because “affecting the QB” remains a huge need, but they have to have a contingency plan if Rousseau walks. 

 

I get it, but he did have a very productive year this past year and 3 years from now the cap is most likely going to go up another $70-$85M more.  And if the owner is as committed to winning as lets say a Jeffrey Laurie and is willing to do all the voided year cap manipulations, then you can easily make it work, retain your players and still go after high quality targets in FA or via trade.

[Brand J]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

 

I get it, but he did have a very productive year this past year and 3 years from now the cap is most likely going to go up another $70-$85M more.  And if the owner is as committed to winning as lets say a Jeffrey Laurie and is willing to do all the voided year cap manipulations, then you can easily make it work, retain your players and still go after high quality targets in FA or via trade.

Aside from the first game of the year where he piled up 3 sacks against Murray, Rousseau had a total of 5 sacks in the other 15 games (he sat out the finale). He’s above average against the run but an average pass rusher. I’m just not comfortable giving him the higher end of his contract projection. Too many games I forget he’s even out there. I’ve said the same about Oliver in the past, but they got Oliver at what I thought was a fair deal. I was happy with that signing even though others weren’t. I think he and Rousseau are similar impact players with Oliver maybe being a tick higher. 

[ColoradoBills]

38 minutes ago, MJS said:

 

Yeah, maybe this is naive, but I'd want 20 to be the max. I'm wanting more like 18 or 19 per year for him.

 

5 years, $100M with it a little backloaded.  Out for the Bills after 3.

It would be under $18M cap hit for the first 3 years.  Then a dead hit in 2029 if they move on from him.

If not, it means he is worth it.

Groot and his agent should jump on that deal if he wants to stay a Buffalo Bill. 

[BarleyNY]

27 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I know the answer to this but I want to ask you, what percentage of the cap would go towards his 2025 and 2026 season if he signed a typical 4 year $24M AAV extension with 2 voided years?

That is not how teams budget and not how a player’s value is determined. Also your example is bogus. Signing bonuses can only be spread out over five total years (current plus four) so the two void years would not have any impact on year one of a five year deal. They would impact restructures after that however. 

[mushypeaches]

Unfortunately, a lot of the arguments the OP made sound like the Tremaine Edmunds decision all over again.

 

I don't like the thought of giving out 2nd contracts based on OK-to-good performance plus "growth potential"

He's had 4 seasons to show what he's got, and he hasn't yet been "great", which is really what you want and need if you're going to spend the big $$ on DE

 

I see very little down side to allowing Rousseau to effectively bet on himself during his upcoming 5th year

If he's amazing, you're happy to pay him top dollar

If he's just more of what we've seen so far, you swallow your pride, let him go in free agency, recoup a comp pick, and you have more bites at the apple

[Magox]

I found this to be interesting, usually Sportrac is pretty close to the expected contract values. Sometimes they over and underestimate.

 

Here is what they believe all the Bills extensions would look like.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/news/_/id/2652/nfl-contract-extension-candidates#:~:text=Also: Josh Allen (QB%2C,OT Taylor Moton

Quote

 

Buffalo Bills

RB James Cook

The Bills have around 8 players eligible & worthy of a contract extension this winter, but Cook might become the most sensible priority. 1) His salary escalated north of $5M due to a Proven Performance Bonus 2) Paying above-average Running Backs as early as possible seems to be the best path forward based on age/shelf live 3) RB Ray Davis remains at near minimum over the next two seasons (the duration of any sensible guarantee at signing for Cook). He’s a 4 year, $41M player in our system.

Also: Josh Allen (QB, $62.5M APY), Greg Rousseau (DE, $25M APY), Terrel Bernard (LB, $6.8M APY), Connor McGovern (C, $7.7M APY), Khalil Shakir (WR, $19.5M APY), Christian Benford (CB, $23M APY)

 

 

Cook they have around $10.25M, Shakir they pegged at $19.5M and Bills got him for max of $15M AAV.   Bernard's expected value is very reasonable so I'd expect if the Bills could get that they'll pull the trigger on that one.

 

Rousseau they have at $25M AAV.   They understand what his value/production and don't go just by the headline raw sack numbers that many seem to do and they also understand how much the cap has risen and is expected to rise.  This is how they objectively come up with their projections.

[Beast]

IMO, Rousseau is JAG. 

[Allen2Moulds]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I was in on signing Rousseau until the AFCCG. Maybe he was hurt but he was DEFINITELY not going at 100% out there. And unless there was an injury we don't know about that is inexcusable in a game of that magnitude. The first Mahomes rushing TD Groot just quit on the play. 

This is where I am. The KC game is hard to shake. Especially when you consider that they have a below average line. That was the one spot where we were suppose to have a clear advantage. It seems like he was on the ground, everything the camera was on him. He was awful.

[TheBeaneBandit]

2 hours ago, JP51 said:

agreed, and I would rather pay 24mm for a game wrecker than say... I dont know what 15mm for Rousseau...  we need someone that will raise the level of play of those around them as we have a lot of holes...  The whole pay little money for Toohill and Ford and Jefferson and Phillips and whom ever else they go get experiment... hasnt worked... the draft has failed us and we dont have a person that teams have to game plan around... so I get your point, but at this point we need to do what we need to do... .thats my opinion. 

No matter what your opinion is though you're not going to sign a game wrecking defensive end to a fresh contract at 24M. The cap just went up in 30 million is the starting point for these guys.

[Brand J]

15 minutes ago, Magox said:

Rousseau they have at $25M AAV.   They understand what his value/production and don't go just by the headline raw sack numbers that many seem to do

Can’t speak for others, but I don’t solely stat watch. If Rousseau was a constant disruption, always playing like his hair was on fire, but just wasn’t getting the sacks, I’d put it on others around him to step their game up. Like I said there’s far too many times where he’s completely invisible and ineffective.
 

When Beane selected him and Basham back to back, he said his goal going into the draft was to “disrupt the QB.” Rousseau is a high end run stopping DE, not the monster pass rusher that Beane wanted and that’s not worth going north of $20M/yr.

[Magox]

22 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

That is not how teams budget and not how a player’s value is determined. Also your example is bogus. Signing bonuses can only be spread out over five total years (current plus four) so the two void years would not have any impact on year one of a five year deal. They would impact restructures after that however. 

 

You are assuming that the only way to manipulate the cap figures is by spreading out the signing bonus to the remaining 5 years.    There is a reason why teams use the voided years, it is to provide cap flexibility.  Essentially when the voided years are first put into place they often times are empty or near empty shells.    The signing bonus in itself wouldn't be added to the voided years, however the base salary years from the active years can be converted to a future signing bonus which then can be spread out to the remaining years (The 5 year resets with each time you restructure it).  

 

As an example, if the Bills lets say had a $15M base pay salary with a certain player in 2027, they could convert that to a bonus and then spread a large portion of that to the remaining years including the voided years. 

 

There are many ways to manipulate the cap.  You just have to have an owner that is willing to pay the huge up front $$.  

 

Take a look at the AJ Brown extension.  They added 4 voided years and were able to spread out the cap hit.   It's a game of musical chairs, at some point the huge cap hits will take place, and it will be when the player is no longer on the roster meaning that there will be a day of reckoning.   

 

Josh Allen is going to be turning 29 years old, if you manipulate the cap with the anticipated huge cap growth, you don't have to face that day of reckoning in a debilitating manner for another 5 years out and even then you can still play musical chairs with the cap if Allen is still playing the way he is.

 

 

 

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi088ja7uGLAxX2QzABHaoWBW4QFnoECBIQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.spotrac.com%2Fnfl%2Fplayer%2F_%2Fid%2F29087%2Faj-brown%23%3A~%3Atext%3D2024%2D2029%20Extension%2Caverage%20annual%20salary%20of%20%2432%2C000%2C000.&usg=AOvVaw1Ue4TgRQJ-yayW0r45rMkf&opi=89978449

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by Magox

[TheBeaneBandit]

24 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

5 years, $100M with it a little backloaded.  Out for the Bills after 3.

It would be under $18M cap hit for the first 3 years.  Then a dead hit in 2029 if they move on from him.

If not, it means he is worth it.

Groot and his agent should jump on that deal if he wants to stay a Buffalo Bill. 

That's pretty much where I'm at. Nice work👍

[Mikie2times]

He had 8 sacks in 13 games in 2022. Just not sure if the progress is really occurring at the rate it needs to. 

 

Is he going to progress to a legit double digit guy? I don't see it.

 

Really tired of this regime extending drafted B players. Greg is fine, but he's not a true impact player and what we I don't want to do is block out a position from further investments with B players. 

[Kirby Jackson]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

You are assuming that the only way to manipulate the cap figures is by spreading out the signing bonus to the remaining 5 years.    There is a reason why teams use the voided years, it is to provide cap flexibility.  Essentially when the voided years are first put into place they often times are empty or near empty shells.    The signing bonus in itself wouldn't be added to the voided years, however the base salary years from the active years can be converted to a future signing bonus which then can be spread out to the remaining years (The 5 year resets with each time you restructure it).  

 

As an example, if the Bills lets say had a $15M base pay salary with a certain player in 2027, they could convert that to a bonus and then spread a large portion of that to the remaining years including the voided years. 

 

There are many ways to manipulate the cap.  You just have to have an owner that is willing to pay the huge up front $$.  

 

Take a look at the AJ Brown extension.  They added 4 voided years and were able to spread out the cap hit.   It's a game of musical chairs, at some point the huge cap hits will take place, and it will be when the player is no longer on the roster meaning that there will be a day of reckoning.   

 

Josh Allen is going to be turning 29 years old, if you manipulate the cap with the anticipated huge cap growth, you don't have to face that day of reckoning in a debilitating manner for another 5 years out and even then you can still play musical chairs with the cap if Allen is still playing the way he is.

 

 

 

 

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=&ved=2ahUKEwi088ja7uGLAxX2QzABHaoWBW4QFnoECBIQAw&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.spotrac.com%2Fnfl%2Fplayer%2F_%2Fid%2F29087%2Faj-brown%23%3A~%3Atext%3D2024%2D2029%20Extension%2Caverage%20annual%20salary%20of%20%2432%2C000%2C000.&usg=AOvVaw1Ue4TgRQJ-yayW0r45rMkf&opi=89978449

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

We don’t disagree on spending. We disagree on Rousseau. You use AJ Brown as an example. If we were talking about Brown, do whatever is needed. You can’t pay role players $20M+. The $25M spotrac number makes me even less inclined. Regardless of the cap increases, it’s a bad idea to pay role players star money. 

[Magox]

42 minutes ago, Brand J said:

Aside from the first game of the year where he piled up 3 sacks against Murray, Rousseau had a total of 5 sacks in the other 15 games (he sat out the finale). He’s above average against the run but an average pass rusher. I’m just not comfortable giving him the higher end of his contract projection. Too many games I forget he’s even out there. I’ve said the same about Oliver in the past, but they got Oliver at what I thought was a fair deal. I was happy with that signing even though others weren’t. I think he and Rousseau are similar impact players with Oliver maybe being a tick higher. 

 

That's fine, you may feel that way, but that doesn't change the fact that the way you feel about it is how it actually played out.

 

Check his stats here

 

https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/greg-rousseau/76889

 

- 15th in the league in solo tackles at DE

- 10th in the league in Tackles for loss as a DE

- 3rd in the league in forced fumbles at DE

- 10th in the league in Stops at DE

-19th in the league in sacks at DE

- 18th in the league in Hurries at DE

- 2nd in the league in QB hits at DE

- 10th in the league in Total QB pressures

- 11th in the league in Batted Passes

-12th in the league in PFF ratings

 

And he did this by being

 

- 25th in the league in Total snaps

- 32nd in Run defense snaps

-17th in pass rush snaps

 

Again, some of you may feel that he didn't do much, but the fact is that he did a lot more than what some of you are giving him credit for. 

[RunTheBall]

Rousseau sucked in the AFC Championship game. He’d been setting the edge all year and he gave it up at least 5x in the AFCCG including Mahomes TD. I don’t care if you didn’t see it on film, after the first 2 times Reid baited your ass inside you should have learned. I can’t believe how often he gave that edge up.

 

So I’m in the let him play out his 5th year camp. If he explodes, we pay the man. Otherwise it’s another Tremaine Edmunds dump and hopefully we get a good comp pick. 

 

We can’t keep running back the same D-line that is the reason we get bounced out of the playoffs every single year.

 

[Magox]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

We don’t disagree on spending. We disagree on Rousseau. You use AJ Brown as an example. If we were talking about Brown, do whatever is needed. You can’t pay role players $20M+. The $25M spotrac number makes me even less inclined. Regardless of the cap increases, it’s a bad idea to pay role players star money. 

 

See my post above.  I posted stats, not subjective analysis which is pretty much what all the naysayers are using as their argument.  "I don't feel he's worth that".   "I think we need to get a game wrecker for that kind of money".

 

It's difficult to argue against feelings.   It's easier to make valid arguments when you can post objective analysis by using real facts.

 

The facts show that this past season, his stats show that he is ranked somewhere between 10 - 15 in the league at the DE spot.   

 

A DE at 10 - 15 in the league who is up for a new contract will get around $24M AAV.  That's not an opinion, that is a fact.  

 

Now if you think that this past season where he objectively was a top 10 - 15 guy was an anomaly and that is as good as it is going to get, then I'd understand your argument.  But no matter how much you or anyone else wants to denigrate the year he just had, you will never be able to whitewash his statistical output.  Hence the Sportrac forecast has him at $25M AAV.

 

And sorry Kirby, $12m AAV what you stated is absurd and any NFL GM would laugh at that suggestion.

[Virgil]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

No, you didn't read the post.  It has 6 tables and it shows how much cap savings you will get for 2025 if you extend, restructure, cut and trade.   It's right there, just plug in what I had instructed.

 

As an example:

if you extend Josh Allen it saves you $11.7M for 2025

Extend Rousseau it saves $9.7M for 2025

Extend Cook it saves $3.3M

Extend Bernard, Shakir and Benford it saves a total of $5.1M

 

Cut Von Pre June 1 it saves $8.3M

Cut Daquan Pre June 1 saves $1.7M

 

Restructure Dion saves $9.8M

 

Total = $48M of cap savings for 2025

 

Click on the link https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills#google_vignette and plug it in.   If you don't believe it, take it up with Overthecap

 

 

 

 

Keep talking sexy, I'm almost there....

[TheBeaneBandit]

7 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

That's fine, you may feel that way, but that doesn't change the fact that the way you feel about it is how it actually played out.

 

Check his stats here

 

https://www.pff.com/nfl/players/greg-rousseau/76889

 

- 15th in the league in solo tackles at DE

- 10th in the league in Tackles for loss as a DE

- 3rd in the league in forced fumbles at DE

- 10th in the league in Stops at DE

-19th in the league in sacks at DE

- 18th in the league in Hurries at DE

- 2nd in the league in QB hits at DE

- 10th in the league in Total QB pressures

- 11th in the league in Batted Passes

-12th in the league in PFF ratings

 

And he did this by being

 

- 25th in the league in Total snaps

- 32nd in Run defense snaps

-17th in pass rush snaps

 

Again, some of you may feel that he didn't do much, but the fact is that he did a lot more than what some of you are giving him credit for. 

He's a good player most of the time, just not a game wrecker. He's a 20 million dollar man for me.