The case for extending Greg Rousseau

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, Magox said:

Sure, I'd be happy to.

 

There is this cool tool provided by OVERTHECAP  https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills#google_vignette

If you click on the link You should be on the Bills team when you click the link and be able to scroll down and you’ll see where it shows 55 active players.

 

The first row will be the players, the second is cap number and the third and fourth are grouped together show dead money and 4th is cap savings.  
 

In that 3rd and 4th row grouping you will see a grey area where you can toggle the 6 options which are cut pre June 1, cut post June 1, trade pre June 1, post June 1, extension and restructure.

 

When you select any of those it changes the outcome on the 4th row cap savings.

 

Choose extend Cook, Shakir, Rousseau, Bernard, Benford, Josh Allen

 

Cut Daquan, Cut Von Miller  Pre June 1 (If you do post June 1 you get even more savings)

 

Restructure Dion Dawkins

 

This frees up over $40M in cap space.   Which brings back all the players and you still have lots of money to get new players!

Show the numbers.  Specific numbers, not generalities.

[Magox]

Just now, oldmanfan said:

Show the numbers.  Specific numbers, not generalities.

I just did...I gave you the instructions on how to do it.  It sounds like you just want to be an old stubborn man.

[Kirby Jackson]

This is a hard no from me. I think he’s a pretty good player. This is like resetting the QB market for Tua to me. Rousseau is a $12M a year guy that’s about to be a $20M a year guy. He should be used as a trade chip this offseason to acquire an elite defensive lineman.

[oldmanfan]

8 minutes ago, Magox said:

I just did...I gave you the instructions on how to do it.  It sounds like you just want to be an old stubborn man.

No you gave a table with pre and post June 1 from what I can tell.  You mention Dawkins restructure.  How?  How many years, what in bonus vs. salary?  Do the same for the players you mention could be easily signed.  
 

I’m at Disney so will look later.

Edited 6 hours ago by oldmanfan

[Virgil]

I think the fact that we have multiple threads begging for a Crosby/Garrett trade, and we are already paying Oliver, shows that Groot is not worth top 10 money.  Many have already made the main point of him disappearing when he should be earning his paycheck.  

 

If you are going to make top 10 money, I expect to hear your name in a meaningful way in the playoffs, not the regular season.  

 

If we resign him, anything over 12 mil is terrible to me.  Personally, I let him play out his 5th year and see what happens.  

Can anyone say that he can't be replaced in the draft?  I can't.

Edited 6 hours ago by Virgil

[JohnNord]

38 minutes ago, Magox said:

The decision to extend Rousseau has become a somewhat polarizing topic and I think it a bit warranted but I do believe there are many key points that the naysayers are overlooking.

 

I'm going to look to make two different points, one will be revolved around his production and the other will be centered on the explosion of the salary cap and how people's perceptions of it are stuck in the previous years rates of cap inflation.

 

 

Production and player capabilities

 

1. Greg is 24 years old, he's still very young and he is an ascending player.  Every year he's been in the NFL he has improved from the previous season.  He has not hit his prime yet.
2. His measurables are fantastic, 6'7 and 266 lbs and he's still filling out his body and he has good speed for being as large as he is.
3. He had 8 sacks in the season which tied his highest total, he had two sacks in the playoffs which is his best Post season yet, he had his highest tackle total that this past season.  He had his highest tackles for loss this year with 16 which made him 10th in the league.  Rousseau is the 11th rated out of 211 DE's in PFF ratings.  Rousseau had 63 pass pressures which ranked 10th out of 211 Edge rushers.  Rousseau had 17 QB hits which ranked 2nd in the NFL for DE's.  Rousseau had 3 batted passes which ranked 11th in the NFL for DE's.  Rousseau had 3 Forced fumbles which ranked 3rd in the NFL for DE's.   Rousseau had 35 Stops which ranked 10th for DE's in the NFL.   And he did this with a relatively low snap count of 736 which ranked 25th in the NFL for DE's.

 

I think too many people look at the raw sack total and then make judgements.   Sacks are very important and I would say is one of the most if not the most important metric but the value of the player is so much more than just raw sack totals.  It's clear that Rousseau gets a lot of pass pressures, that he hits the QB a lot, makes the QB throw the ball sooner than he'd like.  He's really good against the run, bats down passes and causes fumbles which is important.

 

From a value perspective, if you look at the statistics as a whole, objectively he is an 9-12 rated all around NFL DE in the league, which means out of 64 starters, he's in the top 15-25% 

 

Salary Cap and how many are not viewing it correctly

 

1. The salary cap back in 2000 was $62M, today it stands at $275M
2. The nominal growth of the Salary cap from 2012 - 2022 has averaged around 6% per year
3. The growth of the salary cap over the past 3 seasons has been around 11% per year
4. Just the past three seasons it has gone from $208M - $281.5M   That is a growth of $73.5M in just 3 seasons alone which accounts for about a whopping 33% growth in the salary cap.

 

With all the new Broadcasting streaming deals, the way the NFL is now going to begin measuring viewership and all the overseas efforts, many industry experts believe that this rate of growth will continue at least for the next 5 years.

 

I bring the salary cap up because I believe that many people are still viewing salary cap figures with the lens of an old 6-7%outdated rate of growth that we had been used to seeing.  Over the past three years the rate of growth of the cap has gone to 11%, which represents an 80% rate of growth from what we have been accustomed to have been seeing.  

 

In short, the cap has been going bananas and is projected to do so for the foreseeable near future.

 

There are 10 players who are making $22M a year at the Edge position, that is Nick Bosa, Joshua Hines-Allen, Brian Burns, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, Montez Sweat, Danielle Hunger, Rashan Gary, Maxx Crosby and Bradley Chubb.   Bosa tops the league at $34M AAV.   Parsons when he does his deal will probably be around $37M.    Many of the top 10 players signed their deals 2-3 years ago, which means if they were signing a deal today, rather than making lets say $24M that they signed then, they would be receiving $30M + today.

 

Also, if you don't extend Rousseau, then you have to replace him and there is already a hole and a major need to get another Edge rusher.  This means that you now need to get 2 Edge rushers that can play effectively.  It's hard enough to find 1, finding 2 makes it that much more difficult.

 

If you look at Rousseau's recent production, that he's 24, that he has all the physical traits that you are looking for and that he has shown a propensity to continue to ascend every year in the NFL.  Then objectively speaking, signing him to a $23- $24M AAV contract makes a lot of sense and by the time 2027 comes around his contract will only most likely be around 6% of the cap.  That's a deal!    And I'm sticking to it!

The age excuse HAS to go.  It’s a bit overrated to me.  We heard it with Tremaine and now with Rosseau and Coleman. 
 

#2 if the cap does increase as you predict, they can save money in 2025 by re-signing him and then kick the can down the road when it comes to future money.  
 

But perhaps the biggest reason to re-sign Rosseau could be the opportunity to have him play exclusively on the left side where Leonard Floyd and Von Miller previously played.  

[gonzo1105]

I don’t think many will argue that Rousseau is good enough for a 2nd contract but the price point is going to be the big deal. 
 

You’re right he’s 24 and will be 25 when/if he becomes a UFA. He plays a premium position and they might explode his market much like it did with Tremaine Edmunds. If we’re getting him for 17-20 AAV I can live with that if he’s going to get 23-30 AAV then I’ll pass 

[Magox]

3 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

No you gave a table with pre and post June 1 from what I can tell.  You mention Dawkins restructure.  How?  How many years, what in bonus vs. salary?  Do the same for the players you mention could be easily signed.  

 

No, you didn't read the post.  It has 6 tables and it shows how much cap savings you will get for 2025 if you extend, restructure, cut and trade.   It's right there, just plug in what I had instructed.

 

As an example:

if you extend Josh Allen it saves you $11.7M for 2025

Extend Rousseau it saves $9.7M for 2025

Extend Cook it saves $3.3M

Extend Bernard, Shakir and Benford it saves a total of $5.1M

 

Cut Von Pre June 1 it saves $8.3M

Cut Daquan Pre June 1 saves $1.7M

 

Restructure Dion saves $9.8M

 

Total = $48M of cap savings for 2025

 

Click on the link https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills#google_vignette and plug it in.   If you don't believe it, take it up with Overthecap

 

 

 

[oldmanfan]

5 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

No, you didn't read the post.  It has 6 tables and it shows how much cap savings you will get for 2025 if you extend, restructure, cut and trade.   It's right there, just plug in what I had instructed.

 

As an example:

if you extend Josh Allen it saves you $11.7M for 2025

Extend Rousseau it saves $9.7M for 2025

Extend Cook it saves $3.3M

Extend Bernard, Shakir and Benford it saves a total of $5.1M

 

Cut Von Pre June 1 it saves $8.3M

Cut Daquan Pre June 1 saves $1.7M

 

Restructure Dion saves $9.8M

 

Total = $48M of cap savings for 2025

 

Click on the link https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills#google_vignette and plug it in.   If you don't believe it, take it up with Overthecap

 

 

 

Getting your view more now.  Does your model account for a guy like Garrett if they went after him?

[Magox]

8 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

The age excuse HAS to go.  It’s a bit overrated to me.  We heard it with Tremaine and now with Rosseau and Coleman. 
 

#2 if the cap does increase as you predict, they can save money in 2025 by re-signing him and then kick the can down the road when it comes to future money.  
 

But perhaps the biggest reason to re-sign Rosseau could be the opportunity to have him play exclusively on the left side where Leonard Floyd and Von Miller previously played.  

 

The age excuse would have more validity if Rousseau wasn't clearly ascending year over year.  Did you read the stats and where he ranks against other edge rushers?  He had many season bests and many categories where he ranked in the top 10.  Such as pressures, QB hits, stops, fumbles caused, passes batted down, tackles for loss.  These aren't unimportant stats, they add to the value of an edge rusher.

[Magox]

20 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Getting your view more now.  Does your model account for a guy like Garrett if they went after him?

 

It's not my model, just my inputs.  They could easily bring in Garrett if ownership wanted to spend the money.   How do you think the Eagles are able to pay $30M AAV to AJ Brown, $25M AAV to Devonta, $51M AAV to Hurts, $20M AAV to Lane Johnson, Mailata $22M AAV, Saquon $12M AAV, Landon Dickerson who is a guard at $21M AAV, Goedert $14.25M AAV, Bryce Huff $17M AAV (He's a linebacker), Darius Sley - $14M AAV, Bradberry $13M AAV?

 

Their owner Jeffrey Laurie is willing to have all these voided years and pay out monster real cash payouts every single year.  Meaning, that they know how to manipulate the cap AND that they have an owner who is willing to truly pony up the $$$.

 

To go back to your question, Garrett has two years remaining on his contract, the cap hits are relatively low at $19.7M cap hit for 2025 and $20.3M for 2026.

 

He would want an extension, and I'm guessing the extension would look like 3 years $95M.   They could add two voided years, convert his option bonus from 2025 and flatten it out and spread it through the remaining 4 years + 2 Voided years and bring down his cap number for 2025 from $19M to under $10M.

 

The owner has to have the cash to pay the up front bonuses to make it work.    Extending all the players that I suggested and bringing in a new player means that a lot of real $$$ not cap money but real money would be needed this year to make that work.

Edited 6 hours ago by Magox

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, SCBills said:

Rousseau's biggest issue, is the same issue everyone on this team not named Josh Allen, Dion Dawkins or Spencer Brown has..  They are good, not great.

 

We are lucky enough to have a lot of these types, but the Defense desperately needs their Chris Jones. 

 

With that being said, Rousseau would be my next up to extend.  He's not "the" guy, but he is a high end DE2 who, along with Oliver, could truly explode next year with the right investment around them on the DL.

I agree with the “good not great” comment. Ultimately it comes down to how much Rousseau demands. I’m not a proponent of paying him anything near the $25M AAV I’ve seen. Let another team make that mistake. Good DEs are available at much more reasonable contracts in FA every year. That might mean a one or two year deal instead of five, but doing that work is part of being a GM. You just need to let the market shake out and not overpay in the first wave. I don’t blame Rousseau for wanting to make every dollar he can, but I don’t want the Bills to be the team that overpays him. A team just can’t spend like that on players who aren’t difference makers and expect to win a championship. 

[Brand J]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

I was in on signing Rousseau until the AFCCG. Maybe he was hurt but he was DEFINITELY not going at 100% out there. And unless there was an injury we don't know about that is inexcusable in a game of that magnitude. The first Mahomes rushing TD Groot just quit on the play. 

He’s also supposed to be an all world edge setter and on that crucial 4th and 1, Mahomes went right around him as he was caught looking inside at the RB. You need your $23M/yr defensive end to make that play. 

[MJS]

I just don't think we can keep fielding the same players and expect anything different. I say blow up the line and try new players. That means moving on from Rousseau, Miller, and Jones. Not because they are bad. Because they aren't good enough. I'm willing to take a step back there if it means we bring in some young disruptors to develop and possibly trade for or sign a legit pass rusher.

 

Rousseau is a good edge defender. He is great at containing and stopping the run. He makes a play here and there as a pass rusher. But he just isn't one of those elite edge rushers that we need. He would be good opposite an elite edge guy, similar to Jerry Hughes. If we get that, maybe I could be convinced to keep him.

8 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

I agree with the “good not great” comment. Ultimately it comes down to how much Rousseau demands. I’m not a proponent of paying him anything near the $25M AAV I’ve seen. Let another team make that mistake. Good DEs are available at much more reasonable contracts in FA every year. That might mean a one or two year deal instead of five, but doing that work is part of being a GM. You just need to let the market shake out and not overpay in the first wave. I don’t blame Rousseau for wanting to make every dollar he can, but I don’t want the Bills to be the team that overpays him. A team just can’t spend like that on players who aren’t difference makers and expect to win a championship. 

Yeah, maybe this is naive, but I'd want 20 to be the max. I'm wanting more like 18 or 19 per year for him.

[Lothar]

44 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

No you gave a table with pre and post June 1 from what I can tell.  You mention Dawkins restructure.  How?  How many years, what in bonus vs. salary?  Do the same for the players you mention could be easily signed.  
 

I’m at Disney so will look later.

There are a lot of podcasts that discuss how you can open up about 70 million in cap space (Cover 1, Joe Marino, etc. ) - not that we will but it's available with restructures and extensions. I don't think we will do all of it but we could do pretty much anything we need to this free agency if the right players came available. That said, I want to keep Rousseau and Benford. Those are prime positions, these are ascending players about to enter their prime. You don't become a better team casting those players aside.

[Magox]

4 minutes ago, Brand J said:

He’s also supposed to be an all world edge setter and on that crucial 4th and 1, Mahomes went right around him as he was caught looking inside at the RB. You need your $23M/yr defensive end to make that play. 

 

According to Rousseau, it appears that it was a scouting issue.

Quote

 

On defense, Greg Rousseau knew that the Chiefs might use a diamond formation — Mahomes lined up between two tight ends with a running back behind him — but admits the Chiefs ran plays out of this funky alignment that the Bills had never seen before. Reid saved plays for this matchup. On the go-ahead TD in the fourth quarter, the Chiefs pulled a tackle left and a ran a quarterback keeper right. Buffalo’s best defensive player, Matt Milano, was caught flat-footed. Dawuane Smoot bit inside to JV extremes. Everyone appeared fooled. Mahomes plowed into the end zone.

“I didn’t see that in any of the breakdowns I watched,” said the defensive end Rousseau. “So they made some plays. They ended up coming out on top. They had a good gameplan.”

Mahomes has always been a threat to run. What surprised the Bills, per Rousseau, is when he ran for his 43 yards. They weren’t expecting him to boot in certain short-yardage situations.

“I know personally in my job, not just me, but the whole defense we’re thinking, ‘Alright, it was four-minute (offense), we got to get a stop on the run,’” Rousseau said. “Then he boots out. It’s like, ‘Damn.’ It happens. It’s part of the game and it's tough to stop when you have a quarterback who’s a dual threat.”

 

https://www.golongtd.com/p/missing-rings-buffalo-bills-flush

 

Either way, yes you want your players playing their best when it counts the most.   Sometimes, good offensive play calling against a bad defensive scheme can make lots of players look bad.  Look at the Chiefs vs Philadelphia, was that game representative of 1st ballot HOF guys in Mahomes and Kelce?   The interior line for KC is good and they were abused.  The play calling was terrible, they were one dimensional and as a result players looked bad.

 

It happens, what I think is more important to view is the player recent production, their age and trajectory of play.   Rousseau had many top 10 stats in the NFL, that is not in dispute and he did have back to back games with sacks against Lamar Jackson and Bo Nix in the playoffs.   

 

I don't believe for one second that the Bills decision makers will hold that game against him.   At $24M AAV, if all DE's were up for a new contract this year, there would probably be at least 15 guys who would get higher payouts than Rousseau, which means that based off his recent production and age and his rate of trajectory, and the rate of recent and anticipated cap growth,  that AAV is in line.

[Lothar]

8 minutes ago, MJS said:

I just don't think we can keep fielding the same players and expect anything different. I say blow up the line and try new players. That means moving on from Rousseau, Miller, and Jones. Not because they are bad. Because they aren't good enough. I'm willing to take a step back there if it means we bring in some young disruptors to develop and possibly trade for or sign a legit pass rusher.

 

Rousseau is a good edge defender. He is great at containing and stopping the run. He makes a play here and there as a pass rusher. But he just isn't one of those elite edge rushers that we need. He would be good opposite an elite edge guy, similar to Jerry Hughes. If we get that, maybe I could be convinced to keep him.

Yeah, maybe this is naive, but I'd want 20 to be the max. I'm wanting more like 18 or 19 per year for him.

 

Look at percentage of cap when deals are signed. Don't get caught up in the actual numbers because everyone looks overpaid compared to those who signed earlier.

[MJS]

Just now, Lothar said:

Look at percentage of cap when deals are signed. Don't get caught up in the actual numbers because everyone looks overpaid compared to those who signed earlier.

Yeah, I don't want that high of a percentage of the cap going to him. I'd want less, like what I said. But there might be teams willing to give him that much.

[Magox]

1 minute ago, MJS said:

Yeah, I don't want that high of a percentage of the cap going to him. I'd want less, like what I said. But there might be teams willing to give him that much.

 

I know the answer to this but I want to ask you, what percentage of the cap would go towards his 2025 and 2026 season if he signed a typical 4 year $24M AAV extension with 2 voided years?

[Brand J]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

According to Rousseau, it appears that it was a scouting issue.

https://www.golongtd.com/p/missing-rings-buffalo-bills-flush

 

Either way, yes you want your players playing their best when it counts the most.   Sometimes, good offensive play calling against a bad defensive scheme can make lots of players look bad.  Look at the Chiefs vs Philadelphia, was that game representative of 1st ballot HOF guys in Mahomes and Kelce?   The interior line for KC is good and they were abused.  The play calling was terrible, they were one dimensional and as a result players looked bad.

 

It happens, what I think is more important to view is the player recent production, their age and trajectory of play.   Rousseau had many top 10 stats in the NFL, that is not in dispute and he did have back to back games with sacks against Lamar Jackson and Bo Nix in the playoffs.   

 

I don't believe for one second that the Bills decision makers will hold that game against him.   At $24M AAV, if all DE's were up for a new contract this year, there would probably be at least 15 guys who would get higher payouts than Rousseau, which means that based off his recent production and age and his rate of trajectory, and the rate of recent and anticipated cap growth,  that AAV is in line.

Thanks for the find. I was sitting home screaming “watch the QB boot!” I remember that’s what the Chiefs went to in their crucial 4th and 1 play against the 49ers in the SB, same side too - always to Mahomes right. That falls on the coaches and the player for situational awareness. I didn’t study an ounce of film and knew a boot was a high probability in that situation. 
 

I’d still pass at anything more than $18M/yr, that’d be my ceiling. I imagine the team will be drafting multiple DEs, not just because “affecting the QB” remains a huge need, but they have to have a contingency plan if Rousseau walks.