The case for extending Greg Rousseau

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 2/26/2025 at 10:15 AM, Negan said:

Pass.  Outside contain in one of the most important games of the season and he was out to lunch it seemed.  Just awful.

Agreed. We could get close to equal amount of production from AJE at half the cost. Rousseau is a good player, but not for what he’ll demand on the market. I’d rather start AJE and roll the dice with another a rookie 2nd round pick. 

[billsfan89]

It’s all about price. Groot is a very good player and the Bills should make a good offer for an extension. Right now I would say he’s probably going to want 20 million a year with a 50 million dollar guarantee. I am 50/50 on if he should be around the 15th highest paid DE. I think his perfect value is around 18 million a year.

 

I think I would pull the trigger on a 19.5 million dollar a year contract if push came to shove with 45 million guaranteed. If he’s stresdfast on making more than 20 million I would say he can play out the 5th year option and take his chances and the Bills can move onto other extensions 

[Victory Formation]

I believe that Rousseau will get anywhere from $16M to $18M a year.. I do not believe that he will get anywhere close to $23M/year as some folks are suggesting..

[Richard Noggin]

On 2/26/2025 at 4:55 PM, machine gun kelly said:

I’d rather wait a year.  We get Garrett and let’s see what GROOT can do opposite a game wrecker like Garrett.  Garrett routinely beats and draws double teams.  GROOT is assured of single coverage.

 

Has Groot routinely faced much double coverage though? To think he'll suddenly become a more disruptive force because of "single coverage" sounds like wishful thinking, considering his production to date. Groot has immense ability, but is mostly just solid (at best). We all watched him repeatedly lose contain to Mahomes in the AFCCG. What was that about? 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 2/26/2025 at 5:06 PM, Magox said:

The decision to extend Rousseau has become a somewhat polarizing topic and I think it a bit warranted but I do believe there are many key points that the naysayers are overlooking.

 

I'm going to look to make two different points, one will be revolved around his production and the other will be centered on the explosion of the salary cap and how people's perceptions of it are stuck in the previous years rates of cap inflation.

 

 

Production and player capabilities

 

1. Greg is 24 years old, he's still very young and he is an ascending player.  Every year he's been in the NFL he has improved from the previous season.  He has not hit his prime yet.
2. His measurables are fantastic, 6'7 and 266 lbs and he's still filling out his body and he has good speed for being as large as he is.
3. He had 8 sacks in the season which tied his highest total, he had two sacks in the playoffs which is his best Post season yet, he had his highest tackle total that this past season.  He had his highest tackles for loss this year with 16 which made him 10th in the league.  Rousseau is the 11th rated out of 211 DE's in PFF ratings.  Rousseau had 63 pass pressures which ranked 10th out of 211 Edge rushers.  Rousseau had 17 QB hits which ranked 2nd in the NFL for DE's.  Rousseau had 3 batted passes which ranked 11th in the NFL for DE's.  Rousseau had 3 Forced fumbles which ranked 3rd in the NFL for DE's.   Rousseau had 35 Stops which ranked 10th for DE's in the NFL.   And he did this with a relatively low snap count of 736 which ranked 25th in the NFL for DE's.

 

I think too many people look at the raw sack total and then make judgements.   Sacks are very important and I would say is one of the most if not the most important metric but the value of the player is so much more than just raw sack totals.  It's clear that Rousseau gets a lot of pass pressures, that he hits the QB a lot, makes the QB throw the ball sooner than he'd like.  He's really good against the run, bats down passes and causes fumbles which is important.

 

From a value perspective, if you look at the statistics as a whole, objectively he is an 9-12 rated all around NFL DE in the league, which means out of 64 starters, he's in the top 15-25% 

 

Salary Cap and how many are not viewing it correctly

 

1. The salary cap back in 2000 was $62M, today it stands at $275M
2. The nominal growth of the Salary cap from 2012 - 2022 has averaged around 6% per year
3. The growth of the salary cap over the past 3 seasons has been around 11% per year
4. Just the past three seasons it has gone from $208M - $281.5M   That is a growth of $73.5M in just 3 seasons alone which accounts for about a whopping 33% growth in the salary cap.

 

With all the new Broadcasting streaming deals, the way the NFL is now going to begin measuring viewership and all the overseas efforts, many industry experts believe that this rate of growth will continue at least for the next 5 years.

 

I bring the salary cap up because I believe that many people are still viewing salary cap figures with the lens of an old 6-7%outdated rate of growth that we had been used to seeing.  Over the past three years the rate of growth of the cap has gone to 11%, which represents an 80% rate of growth from what we have been accustomed to have been seeing.  

 

In short, the cap has been going bananas and is projected to do so for the foreseeable near future.

 

There are 10 players who are making $22M a year at the Edge position, that is Nick Bosa, Joshua Hines-Allen, Brian Burns, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, Montez Sweat, Danielle Hunger, Rashan Gary, Maxx Crosby and Bradley Chubb.   Bosa tops the league at $34M AAV.   Parsons when he does his deal will probably be around $37M.    Many of the top 10 players signed their deals 2-3 years ago, which means if they were signing a deal today, rather than making lets say $24M that they signed then, they would be receiving $30M + today.

 

Also, if you don't extend Rousseau, then you have to replace him and there is already a hole and a major need to get another Edge rusher.  This means that you now need to get 2 Edge rushers that can play effectively.  It's hard enough to find 1, finding 2 makes it that much more difficult.

 

If you look at Rousseau's recent production, that he's 24, that he has all the physical traits that you are looking for and that he has shown a propensity to continue to ascend every year in the NFL.  Then objectively speaking, signing him to a $23- $24M AAV contract makes a lot of sense and by the time 2027 comes around his contract will only most likely be around 6% of the cap.  That's a deal!    And I'm sticking to it!

I say bring him back at 18 mil per and not a penny more you can't pay someone for future production or for upside you pay them for what they've done and so far Rouse is a middle of the pact edge player . I would offer him a 5yr 90 mil deal with 45 guaranteed if he doesn't except that then see what he's worth on the trade market and cut your losses. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 2/26/2025 at 5:11 PM, GunnerBill said:

I was in on signing Rousseau until the AFCCG. Maybe he was hurt but he was DEFINITELY not going at 100% out there. And unless there was an injury we don't know about that is inexcusable in a game of that magnitude. The first Mahomes rushing TD Groot just quit on the play. 

Ntm the Chiefs offensive tackles are the worst pair of tackles in the league. Rouse should've at least had 2 sacks vs them bums. Mof none of our edge players made them pay and Mcd schemes didn't do anything to help them either just a complete meltdown if u ask me. 

[Magox]

31 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Ntm the Chiefs offensive tackles are the worst pair of tackles in the league. Rouse should've at least had 2 sacks vs them bums. Mof none of our edge players made them pay and Mcd schemes didn't do anything to help them either just a complete meltdown if u ask me. 

 

Not that game, the DB's and scheme were the main problem.  Mahomes got the ball out in 2.29 seconds vs the Bills, he got the ball out in 3.32 seconds against the Eagles.   What that means is that Mahomes was hitting his first read vs the Bills all game long, whereas against the Eagles they were snuffing that option out and by the time he was getting to his second read the Eagles pressure was getting home.

[Kirby Jackson]

Sports are kind of funny. Rousseau is a way better player than Hollins or even Ty Johnson. I would much rather see them bring back those guys vs. extending Groot. I just think he’s a high end role player. He’s an 8 sack guy that’s generally pretty good against the run. I don’t want to pay him like a top 10 defensive end. That’s not good cap management. The gap from Groot to another role playing DE isn’t enough to justify the $15M AAV difference in price. At $12M AAV, sign me up for years more. At $20M+ AAV that feels like terrible value. He’s more like a 4% of the cap guy and not a 7% or 8% of the cap guy.

[Magox]

14 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Sports are kind of funny. Rousseau is a way better player than Hollins or even Ty Johnson. I would much rather see them bring back those guys vs. extending Groot. I just think he’s a high end role player. He’s an 8 sack guy that’s generally pretty good against the run. I don’t want to pay him like a top 10 defensive end. That’s not good cap management. The gap from Groot to another role playing DE isn’t enough to justify the $15M AAV difference in price. At $12M AAV, sign me up for years more. At $20M+ AAV that feels like terrible value. He’s more like a 4% of the cap guy and not a 7% or 8% of the cap guy.

 

Except it won't be 7 or 8% of the cap.   In 2025 he'd end up being less than 3%, in 2026 with the way caps are now constructed he'd be around 4%, 2027 he'd be around 5%.   

 

Look at Nick Bosa's contract, which was a 34M AAV extension.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/29037/nick-bosa#:~:text=2023-2028 Rookie Extension,average annual salary of %2434%2C000%2C000.

 

His first year was 4.9% of the cap, second year was %5.74 and third year is 7.35%

 

And look at how the 49ers constructed the 4th, 5th and 6th years, much of it is in base salary, which means they can convert it to a bonus and spread it out in the remaining years including the voided year.

 

If you extrapolate that with the fact that a $24M AAV vs $34M AAV that is approximately 30% less, which if you include the rate of inflation from the point of when Bosa signed it vs when Rousseau could sign his, you are talking about nearly 40% difference.    Lets split the baby and use 35%.   4.9% of which is what Bosa had for his first year would be 3.1% for 2025, second year Bosa accounted for 5.74% of the cap which would translate 3.9% and three years out Bosa accounted for 7.35% which would translate to 4.9%

 

So yeah, you would get it exactly what you said would be acceptable to you, which was a 4% type of guy for the first three years.  

 

 

Edited February 28 by Magox

[BarleyNY]

11 hours ago, ghostwriter said:

I believe that Rousseau will get anywhere from $16M to $18M a year.. I do not believe that he will get anywhere close to $23M/year as some folks are suggesting..

I’d be comfortable with that $16M-$18M range. I think he’s worth that. The $23M-$25M range I’ve seen thrown around, no thank you. He can play out his deal and get it somewhere else. 

[Cubanmist]

I’d let him go. He’s never impressed me. We can make a case where he is as effective as an average DE.

[LABILLBACKER]

On 2/26/2025 at 7:11 AM, GunnerBill said:

I was in on signing Rousseau until the AFCCG. Maybe he was hurt but he was DEFINITELY not going at 100% out there. And unless there was an injury we don't know about that is inexcusable in a game of that magnitude. The first Mahomes rushing TD Groot just quit on the play. 

Completely agree...super disappointed in the way he played against KC.  I didn't hear about any injury like Kincaid had.  I like Greg but I'm hardly in love with the idea of over-paying him 20M.  I'd treat him the same as Gabe & Tremaine.  We desperately need elite, not good or serviceable.  Too many times I've watched qbs pressured or hit still complete td passes.  I'm waiving goodbye to Groot unless he has a double digit sack year.

[BillMafia716ix]

I would wait and have him play this year out. Edge rusher is a premium position. If he balls out, I would have no problem paying him what he’s worth.

[Aussie Joe]

My pre FA tip is he plays out the season on the current deal …

[nedboy7]

I believe Rousseau is more highly graded by most analysts than he is on this board.  Then again this board really doesn't like a single Bills player other than JA.  So for the right price sure.  Isn't that every single player though? 

[SydneyBillsFan]

Pay him like a top DE2.

 

12-15 per - not a cent more

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

I believe Rousseau is more highly graded by most analysts than he is on this board.  Then again this board really doesn't like a single Bills player other than JA.  So for the right price sure.  Isn't that every single player though? 

I think GR does what he’s usually asked to do very well. He’s an excellent complimentary edge. But he’s never going to be that twitchy, flexible bend-the-edge and get to the QB fast kind of DE. That’s the high value skill set. 

 

I really like having him on the team. He’s a quality player, but he’s not a difference maker and you can’t pay him like he’s one. 

Edited Tuesday at 12:49 PM by BarleyNY

[Kirby Jackson]

9 hours ago, nedboy7 said:

I believe Rousseau is more highly graded by most analysts than he is on this board.  Then again this board really doesn't like a single Bills player other than JA.  So for the right price sure.  Isn't that every single player though? 

The way that I kind of look at it, “is this guy a top 10 player at his position?” That would put them in the top 3rd in the league. The closer they are to 1, the more important they are. On the Bills it’s: Josh, Dion, Spencer Brown, McGovern maybe, Shakir in the slot, Cook, Benford, Oliver maybe, one of the LBs maybe. Rousseau is a tick below that. He’s in the, “if it’s a good deal, sure” but not a guy that you overextend for.

[BuffaloRebound]

26 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The way that I kind of look at it, “is this guy a top 10 player at his position?” That would put them in the top 3rd in the league. The closer they are to 1, the more important they are. On the Bills it’s: Josh, Dion, Spencer Brown, McGovern maybe, Shakir in the slot, Cook, Benford, Oliver maybe, one of the LBs maybe. Rousseau is a tick below that. He’s in the, “if it’s a good deal, sure” but not a guy that you overextend for.

I think this is fair.  i think Shakir’s deal is a good comp for a guy like Rousseau and his value to the team.  WR and D Line have similar economics now and both are good, not great players.  

[uticaclub]

If he weren't playing ahead of AJE, he wouldn't be as highly regarded. To me, he's not much different from the one-year deal rotational players we bring in every season. He has had some standout performances, including big games in Week 1 of 2024 and the Jets game after Von went down. However, those gamrs are too infrequent to be considered consistent. I still believe he will receive a 4 year/$100M ($50 guaranteed), from some team.