The case for extending Greg Rousseau

[Magox]

1 minute ago, Brand J said:

I wouldn’t say “considerably” worse. Rousseau had had the better career, but it’s close. If Rousseau is considered Robin and we still need to find Batman, I’d rather Robin be at Sweat’s price point than Groot’s - just under $20M/yr. The Batman equivalent, if we can trade for him, will command over $30M/yr.
 

Not sure how PFF has Greg at 9 regular season sacks, Pro Football Reference has him at 8. Slight variances with other stats too. 

Maybe “considerably” is too strong of a word, definitely better though.  The other difference is that Rousseau is still continuing to improve, people don’t like that I use the word “young”, that’s just their Tremaine Edmunds PTSD talking and that PTSD has no bearings on reality. 
 

Tremaine had peaked after 2-3 years which was an above average LB with a lot of range.   Rousseau has not shown any sign of peaking, he is ascending hence the career highs on a number of measurable metrics.

[GETTOTHE50]

Can’t wait till he’s off the team?

 

How many pass deflections does he have? How tall is he? 
 

Every now and then, his length allows him to get a sack or TFL from behind.

 

But he can’t collapse the pocket.

 

hard pass on a second contract. 

[Brand J]

9 minutes ago, Magox said:

Maybe “considerably” is too strong of a word, definitely better though.  The other difference is that Rousseau is still continuing to improve, people don’t like that I use the word “young”, that’s just their Tremaine Edmunds PTSD talking and that PTSD has no bearings on reality. 
 

Tremaine had peaked after 2-3 years which was an above average LB with a lot of range.   Rousseau has not shown any sign of peaking, he is ascending hence the career highs on a number of measurable metrics.

Some could say Sweat is also still improving. He wasn’t a starter his first 3 years and he’s put in work the last 4. And of course he also has a double digit sack season on his resume. It’s just my beliefs though, if I’m re-signing Rousseau to be DE2 on my DL (which he is), I’m not going above $20M/yr for him, or any other DE2.

[BuffaloRebound]

Not my money, but I’d find a way to keep Rousseau.  The cap keeps going up and NFL owners continue to print money.  Is he great?… no.  But he’s good, continues to get better and getting rid of him doesn’t make us better unless it’s for a draft haul or Myles Garrett.  

[machine gun kelly]

I’d rather wait a year.  We get Garrett and let’s see what GROOT can do opposite a game wrecker like Garrett.  Garrett routinely beats and draws double teams.  GROOT is assured of single coverage.

[Magox]

4 minutes ago, machine gun kelly said:

I’d rather wait a year.  We get Garrett and let’s see what GROOT can do opposite a game wrecker like Garrett.  Garrett routinely beats and draws double teams.  GROOT is assured of single coverage.

 

I understand this logic and on the surface it makes sense but the potential cons to this would be:

 

- If he does put up bigger numbers and continues to ascend then we are probably talking around $27M + AAV

- Extending him frees up around $9 M in cap space for 2025

[JohnNord]

5 hours ago, Magox said:

 

The age excuse would have more validity if Rousseau wasn't clearly ascending year over year.  Did you read the stats and where he ranks against other edge rushers?  He had many season bests and many categories where he ranked in the top 10.  Such as pressures, QB hits, stops, fumbles caused, passes batted down, tackles for loss.  These aren't unimportant stats, they add to the value of an edge rusher.

The problem is that while Rosseau has flashed at times, he has yet to do it consistently in 4 seasons.  Are you really going to pay him his market value?  It reminds me a lot of Tremaine Edmunds.  I think Rosseau is good but he needs to show more to get that monster contract 

[stinky finger]

6 hours ago, Magox said:

 

I didn't notice it, but I don't doubt you.  Hard to judge a persons career on one game.  If we did that then lots of players wouldn't get extended or be given good contracts.   I think as a whole, you definitely see a player on the rise.  He did have sacks in both of the other playoff wins.  

But - if what @GunnerBill stated is true…..inexcusable indeed  

And in a playoff game!?!? No can do. 
 

[colin]

6 hours ago, Magox said:

 

If any "Game wrecker" is up for a new contract now, they can't be had for $24M AAV, they will all be $30M AAV and the very top 3-4 will be between $33M- $36M AAV.

 

$24M AAV is a top 20% starting edge rusher pay for guys entering into their prime.

 

 

if we do a joe marino and look at all of it as % of cap, groot getting 22-24 apy is a full cut below what the above mentioned guys got when they were market setting (in % terms).  an extension can also allow for cap relief now to take the hit later, but given the rate of growth in the cap, that means the cap % just goes down, so it will average from like 8 down to 6 and change %.

 

i was disgusted with groot in the afc chip game, but he's been our best defender otherwise, and has some (but not enough) elite traits.

 

groot, oliver, a warm body, and garrett is a championship level dline, i say we get that together this offseason.

[Brand J]

35 minutes ago, stinky finger said:

But - if what @GunnerBill stated is true…..inexcusable indeed  

And in a playoff game!?!? No can do. 
 

One of the best duos of all time. Hall & Oates!

[Big Blitz]

He’s going to be 25 in a month.  
 

He’d have broken out by now.  
 

He has 25 sacks in 4 years.  
 

There is no breakout coming this is who he is. 
 

An ideal number 2 very good against the run DE. 

 

I’d offer him 3 years 45 million and that’s it.

 

He isn’t worth more than that.  No team is giving him 20 mill per.  None.  

[FireChans]

4 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

He’s going to be 25 in a month.  
 

He’d have broken out by now.  
 

He has 25 sacks in 4 years.  
 

There is no breakout coming this is who he is. 
 

An ideal number 2 very good against the run DE. 

 

I’d offer him 3 years 45 million and that’s it.

 

He isn’t worth more than that.  No team is giving him 20 mill per.  None.  

Nah you’re wrong.

 

There are enough bum teams with money to burn desperate for a good player like Rousseau to hit the market so they can overpay them because they desperately need to improve their roster.

 

Edmunds was the same deal. The Bears would more than willing to give him a massive deal that he wasn’t worth because otherwise they had cap space and nothing.

 

A team like the Raiders or Panthers overpaying for Rousseau would be par for the course in the NFL.

 

Thats the reason you let him go. It’s bad business overpaying a good player to outbid the garbage teams that will throw the bag at them.

[HappyDays]

Personally I don't think there's much to debate. The reason there's so much discussion about Rousseau is because he's a classic on the fence player. Good enough to make you think a higher ceiling is still attainable, but not consistent enough to make you feel confident he'll reach it. And like every single defensive player he is completely useless after the wildcard round.

 

If he takes a big step than something like $20M AAV is a good deal but for the player he's been it's pretty clearly a massive overpay. So the easy answer is let him play out his 5th year option and then decide what he's worth from there. This is a great offseason to add DL talent so there's no need to rush the decision.

[Sierra Foothills]

16 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

I was in on signing Rousseau until the AFCCG. Maybe he was hurt but he was DEFINITELY not going at 100% out there. And unless there was an injury we don't know about that is inexcusable in a game of that magnitude. The first Mahomes rushing TD Groot just quit on the play. 

 

16 hours ago, Negan said:

Pass.  Outside contain in one of the most important games of the season and he was out to lunch it seemed.  Just awful.

 

Agree with both of you. An epic shyt performance.

 

And all that excuse making about film study and wrinkles by the Chiefs?

 

It's really simple... if they're not running to your side, just don't lose contain.

 

16 hours ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

That game left a bad taste in my mouth as well so I'm pretty much right where you are and this issue. Greg got his ass kicked on quite a few plays. Without knowing if there was an injury issue or something going on I'm totally up in the air on whether to keep or let him go.

 

Injury wouldn't be a legit excuse anyways... his failings were mental.

 

16 hours ago, gonzo1105 said:

I don’t think many will argue that Rousseau is good enough for a 2nd contract but the price point is going to be the big deal. 
 

You’re right he’s 24 and will be 25 when/if he becomes a UFA. He plays a premium position and they might explode his market much like it did with Tremaine Edmunds. If we’re getting him for 17-20 AAV I can live with that if he’s going to get 23-30 AAV then I’ll pass 

 

Yes, it's not a matter of whether to sign or not to sign... the Bills have to be disciplined with their valuation on Rousseau. They can't make the decision to extend him simply to justify the fact that they drafted him.

 

15 hours ago, Magox said:

The age excuse would have more validity if Rousseau wasn't clearly ascending year over year.  Did you read the stats and where he ranks against other edge rushers?  He had many season bests and many categories where he ranked in the top 10.  Such as pressures, QB hits, stops, fumbles caused, passes batted down, tackles for loss.  These aren't unimportant stats, they add to the value of an edge rusher.

 

I really appreciate your framing of this topic and subsequent points but no one here knows whether 2024 was Rousseau's ceiling year and there's a chance that it was.

 

I don't think you can simply assume that he's going to be a better player in 2025.

 

I hope so but hope isn't a good basis for making decisions.

 

15 hours ago, Brand J said:

He’s also supposed to be an all world edge setter and on that crucial 4th and 1, Mahomes went right around him as he was caught looking inside at the RB. You need your $23M/yr defensive end to make that play. 

 

And there were at least 5 plays where Rousseau egregiously lost contain.

 

The margin of victory was 3 points...

 

14 hours ago, Mikie2times said:

He had 8 sacks in 13 games in 2022. Just not sure if the progress is really occurring at the rate it needs to. 

 

Is he going to progress to a legit double digit guy? I don't see it.

 

Really tired of this regime extending drafted B players. Greg is fine, but he's not a true impact player and what we I don't want to do is block out a position from further investments with B players. 

 

I tend to agree.

 

I'm not convinced that 2024 wasn't his ceiling.

 

14 hours ago, RunTheBall said:

Rousseau sucked in the AFC Championship game. He’d been setting the edge all year and he gave it up at least 5x in the AFCCG including Mahomes TD. I don’t care if you didn’t see it on film, after the first 2 times Reid baited your ass inside you should have learned. I can’t believe how often he gave that edge up.

 

So I’m in the let him play out his 5th year camp. If he explodes, we pay the man. Otherwise it’s another Tremaine Edmunds dump and hopefully we get a good comp pick. 

 

We can’t keep running back the same D-line that is the reason we get bounced out of the playoffs every single year.

 

 

Agree. I don't extend him.

 

Let him play out his contract and hope that you have a tough decision to make at season's end.

 

Edited February 27 by Sierra Foothills

[BillsFanForever19]

The issue with extending Rousseau to me is two fold:

 

1.) Everyone is clamoring for a big name DE. And if you're paying big money for a Garrett or Crosby or Parsons, etc. - you're not then going to turn around and pay big money for Groot too. 

 

2.) If Groot were playing at a level worthy of the contract I expect he'll command - people wouldn't be clamoring for a big time DE this offseason as they are.

[Ayjent]

We need players that show up in big moments on the DL against crappy OLs.  He hasn’t in the playoffs against backups and people playing out of position much less top notch talent. I do wonder if the Bills wanting him to be lighter as a DE makes him less effective. It really depends on his contract but I don’t love the estimated value.

[HamptonBillsfan]

21 hours ago, Magox said:

The decision to extend Rousseau has become a somewhat polarizing topic and I think it a bit warranted but I do believe there are many key points that the naysayers are overlooking.

 

I'm going to look to make two different points, one will be revolved around his production and the other will be centered on the explosion of the salary cap and how people's perceptions of it are stuck in the previous years rates of cap inflation.

 

 

Production and player capabilities

 

1. Greg is 24 years old, he's still very young and he is an ascending player.  Every year he's been in the NFL he has improved from the previous season.  He has not hit his prime yet.
2. His measurables are fantastic, 6'7 and 266 lbs and he's still filling out his body and he has good speed for being as large as he is.
3. He had 8 sacks in the season which tied his highest total, he had two sacks in the playoffs which is his best Post season yet, he had his highest tackle total that this past season.  He had his highest tackles for loss this year with 16 which made him 10th in the league.  Rousseau is the 11th rated out of 211 DE's in PFF ratings.  Rousseau had 63 pass pressures which ranked 10th out of 211 Edge rushers.  Rousseau had 17 QB hits which ranked 2nd in the NFL for DE's.  Rousseau had 3 batted passes which ranked 11th in the NFL for DE's.  Rousseau had 3 Forced fumbles which ranked 3rd in the NFL for DE's.   Rousseau had 35 Stops which ranked 10th for DE's in the NFL.   And he did this with a relatively low snap count of 736 which ranked 25th in the NFL for DE's.

 

I think too many people look at the raw sack total and then make judgements.   Sacks are very important and I would say is one of the most if not the most important metric but the value of the player is so much more than just raw sack totals.  It's clear that Rousseau gets a lot of pass pressures, that he hits the QB a lot, makes the QB throw the ball sooner than he'd like.  He's really good against the run, bats down passes and causes fumbles which is important.

 

From a value perspective, if you look at the statistics as a whole, objectively he is an 9-12 rated all around NFL DE in the league, which means out of 64 starters, he's in the top 15-25% 

 

Salary Cap and how many are not viewing it correctly

 

1. The salary cap back in 2000 was $62M, today it stands at $275M
2. The nominal growth of the Salary cap from 2012 - 2022 has averaged around 6% per year
3. The growth of the salary cap over the past 3 seasons has been around 11% per year
4. Just the past three seasons it has gone from $208M - $281.5M   That is a growth of $73.5M in just 3 seasons alone which accounts for about a whopping 33% growth in the salary cap.

 

With all the new Broadcasting streaming deals, the way the NFL is now going to begin measuring viewership and all the overseas efforts, many industry experts believe that this rate of growth will continue at least for the next 5 years.

 

I bring the salary cap up because I believe that many people are still viewing salary cap figures with the lens of an old 6-7%outdated rate of growth that we had been used to seeing.  Over the past three years the rate of growth of the cap has gone to 11%, which represents an 80% rate of growth from what we have been accustomed to have been seeing.  

 

In short, the cap has been going bananas and is projected to do so for the foreseeable near future.

 

There are 10 players who are making $22M a year at the Edge position, that is Nick Bosa, Joshua Hines-Allen, Brian Burns, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, Montez Sweat, Danielle Hunger, Rashan Gary, Maxx Crosby and Bradley Chubb.   Bosa tops the league at $34M AAV.   Parsons when he does his deal will probably be around $37M.    Many of the top 10 players signed their deals 2-3 years ago, which means if they were signing a deal today, rather than making lets say $24M that they signed then, they would be receiving $30M + today.

 

Also, if you don't extend Rousseau, then you have to replace him and there is already a hole and a major need to get another Edge rusher.  This means that you now need to get 2 Edge rushers that can play effectively.  It's hard enough to find 1, finding 2 makes it that much more difficult.

 

If you look at Rousseau's recent production, that he's 24, that he has all the physical traits that you are looking for and that he has shown a propensity to continue to ascend every year in the NFL.  Then objectively speaking, signing him to a $23- $24M AAV contract makes a lot of sense and by the time 2027 comes around his contract will only most likely be around 6% of the cap.  That's a deal!    And I'm sticking to it!

His speed and length make him effective in the pass rush portion of his responsibilities but he can get pushed around against stout O-lines in run defense. His edge integrity can be a problem. If they can get him on some sort of a bonus laden, realistic deal his upside warrants resigning him.

[T master]

I don't think they need to pay him any more than they did Ed because both of them have a knack of disappearing in for periods of time and in some instances be made to be a none factor by elite players and the Bills need more than flashes from these guys but i think Rousseau will want to test the market and there will be a team that will back up the truck more than the Bills unless Beane gets there first and makes a point to Greg of staying with the Bills . 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, T master said:

I don't think they need to pay him any more than they did Ed because both of them have a knack of disappearing in for periods of time and in some instances be made to be a none factor by elite players and the Bills need more than flashes from these guys but i think Rousseau will want to test the market and there will be a team that will back up the truck more than the Bills unless Beane gets there first and makes a point to Greg of staying with the Bills . 

I’m with you on Rousseau testing the market. It’s the most likely scenario. If he wants the bag, that’s what he’ll do. There’s always some team willing to overpay a good, but not great DE. 

[bills_fan]

On 2/26/2025 at 11:20 AM, Magox said:

 

It's not my model, just my inputs.  They could easily bring in Garrett if ownership wanted to spend the money.   How do you think the Eagles are able to pay $30M AAV to AJ Brown, $25M AAV to Devonta, $51M AAV to Hurts, $20M AAV to Lane Johnson, Mailata $22M AAV, Saquon $12M AAV, Landon Dickerson who is a guard at $21M AAV, Goedert $14.25M AAV, Bryce Huff $17M AAV (He's a linebacker), Darius Sley - $14M AAV, Bradberry $13M AAV?

 

Their owner Jeffrey Laurie is willing to have all these voided years and pay out monster real cash payouts every single year.  Meaning, that they know how to manipulate the cap AND that they have an owner who is willing to truly pony up the $$$.

 

To go back to your question, Garrett has two years remaining on his contract, the cap hits are relatively low at $19.7M cap hit for 2025 and $20.3M for 2026.

 

He would want an extension, and I'm guessing the extension would look like 3 years $95M.   They could add two voided years, convert his option bonus from 2025 and flatten it out and spread it through the remaining 4 years + 2 Voided years and bring down his cap number for 2025 from $19M to under $10M.

 

The owner has to have the cash to pay the up front bonuses to make it work.    Extending all the players that I suggested and bringing in a new player means that a lot of real $$$ not cap money but real money would be needed this year to make that work.

 

 

Just wanted to say thank you for this very clear and concise explanation.  Much, much appreciated.