The case for extending Greg Rousseau

[Magox]

The decision to extend Rousseau has become a somewhat polarizing topic and I think it a bit warranted but I do believe there are many key points that the naysayers are overlooking.

 

I'm going to look to make two different points, one will be revolved around his production and the other will be centered on the explosion of the salary cap and how people's perceptions of it are stuck in the previous years rates of cap inflation.

 

 

Production and player capabilities

 

1. Greg is 24 years old, he's still very young and he is an ascending player.  Every year he's been in the NFL he has improved from the previous season.  He has not hit his prime yet.
2. His measurables are fantastic, 6'7 and 266 lbs and he's still filling out his body and he has good speed for being as large as he is.
3. He had 8 sacks in the season which tied his highest total, he had two sacks in the playoffs which is his best Post season yet, he had his highest tackle total that this past season.  He had his highest tackles for loss this year with 16 which made him 10th in the league.  Rousseau is the 11th rated out of 211 DE's in PFF ratings.  Rousseau had 63 pass pressures which ranked 10th out of 211 Edge rushers.  Rousseau had 17 QB hits which ranked 2nd in the NFL for DE's.  Rousseau had 3 batted passes which ranked 11th in the NFL for DE's.  Rousseau had 3 Forced fumbles which ranked 3rd in the NFL for DE's.   Rousseau had 35 Stops which ranked 10th for DE's in the NFL.   And he did this with a relatively low snap count of 736 which ranked 25th in the NFL for DE's.

 

I think too many people look at the raw sack total and then make judgements.   Sacks are very important and I would say is one of the most if not the most important metric but the value of the player is so much more than just raw sack totals.  It's clear that Rousseau gets a lot of pass pressures, that he hits the QB a lot, makes the QB throw the ball sooner than he'd like.  He's really good against the run, bats down passes and causes fumbles which is important.

 

From a value perspective, if you look at the statistics as a whole, objectively he is an 9-12 rated all around NFL DE in the league, which means out of 64 starters, he's in the top 15-25% 

 

Salary Cap and how many are not viewing it correctly

 

1. The salary cap back in 2000 was $62M, today it stands at $275M
2. The nominal growth of the Salary cap from 2012 - 2022 has averaged around 6% per year
3. The growth of the salary cap over the past 3 seasons has been around 11% per year
4. Just the past three seasons it has gone from $208M - $281.5M   That is a growth of $73.5M in just 3 seasons alone which accounts for about a whopping 33% growth in the salary cap.

 

With all the new Broadcasting streaming deals, the way the NFL is now going to begin measuring viewership and all the overseas efforts, many industry experts believe that this rate of growth will continue at least for the next 5 years.

 

I bring the salary cap up because I believe that many people are still viewing salary cap figures with the lens of an old 6-7%outdated rate of growth that we had been used to seeing.  Over the past three years the rate of growth of the cap has gone to 11%, which represents an 80% rate of growth from what we have been accustomed to have been seeing.  

 

In short, the cap has been going bananas and is projected to do so for the foreseeable near future.

 

There are 10 players who are making $22M a year at the Edge position, that is Nick Bosa, Joshua Hines-Allen, Brian Burns, TJ Watt, Myles Garrett, Montez Sweat, Danielle Hunger, Rashan Gary, Maxx Crosby and Bradley Chubb.   Bosa tops the league at $34M AAV.   Parsons when he does his deal will probably be around $37M.    Many of the top 10 players signed their deals 2-3 years ago, which means if they were signing a deal today, rather than making lets say $24M that they signed then, they would be receiving $30M + today.

 

Also, if you don't extend Rousseau, then you have to replace him and there is already a hole and a major need to get another Edge rusher.  This means that you now need to get 2 Edge rushers that can play effectively.  It's hard enough to find 1, finding 2 makes it that much more difficult.

 

If you look at Rousseau's recent production, that he's 24, that he has all the physical traits that you are looking for and that he has shown a propensity to continue to ascend every year in the NFL.  Then objectively speaking, signing him to a $23- $24M AAV contract makes a lot of sense and by the time 2027 comes around his contract will only most likely be around 6% of the cap.  That's a deal!    And I'm sticking to it!

[GunnerBill]

I was in on signing Rousseau until the AFCCG. Maybe he was hurt but he was DEFINITELY not going at 100% out there. And unless there was an injury we don't know about that is inexcusable in a game of that magnitude. The first Mahomes rushing TD Groot just quit on the play. 

[Negan]

Pass.  Outside contain in one of the most important games of the season and he was out to lunch it seemed.  Just awful.

[Magox]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I was in on signing Rousseau until the AFCCG. Maybe he was hurt but he was DEFINITELY not going at 100% out there. And unless there was an injury we don't know about that is inexcusable in a game of that magnitude. The first Mahomes rushing TD Groot just quit on the play. 

 

I didn't notice it, but I don't doubt you.  Hard to judge a persons career on one game.  If we did that then lots of players wouldn't get extended or be given good contracts.   I think as a whole, you definitely see a player on the rise.  He did have sacks in both of the other playoff wins.  

[bmur66]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I was in on signing Rousseau until the AFCCG. Maybe he was hurt but he was DEFINITELY not going at 100% out there. And unless there was an injury we don't know about that is inexcusable in a game of that magnitude. The first Mahomes rushing TD Groot just quit on the play. 

I think the strategy was to beat the snot out of Rousseau and apparently it worked.

[SCBills]

Rousseau's biggest issue, is the same issue everyone on this team not named Josh Allen, Dion Dawkins or Spencer Brown has..  They are good, not great.

 

We are lucky enough to have a lot of these types, but the Defense desperately needs their Chris Jones. 

 

With that being said, Rousseau would be my next up to extend.  He's not "the" guy, but he is a high end DE2 who, along with Oliver, could truly explode next year with the right investment around them on the DL.

[TheBeaneBandit]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I was in on signing Rousseau until the AFCCG. Maybe he was hurt but he was DEFINITELY not going at 100% out there. And unless there was an injury we don't know about that is inexcusable in a game of that magnitude. The first Mahomes rushing TD Groot just quit on the play. 

That game left a bad taste in my mouth as well so I'm pretty much right where you are and this issue. Greg got his ass kicked on quite a few plays. Without knowing if there was an injury issue or something going on I'm totally up in the air on whether to keep or let him go.

[JP51]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I was in on signing Rousseau until the AFCCG. Maybe he was hurt but he was DEFINITELY not going at 100% out there. And unless there was an injury we don't know about that is inexcusable in a game of that magnitude. The first Mahomes rushing TD Groot just quit on the play. 

Sign Rousseau... sure... but sign him with the awareness of how streaky he is and in really important games he seems to disappear... that should factor into the money equation... the reality is that I feel it is gonna be a Tremaine Edmunds situation.... where player is ok... never gonna be a game wrecker, we aint gonna pay him like one, but some one will and then will regret it.... That said... you get him on a good deal I am fine with that... otherwise look to upgrade thru the draft... or however, cause he isnt so good that we cannot upgrade...  Now, maybe a game wrecker on the other side and a big body in the middle that requires a DT helps him out but he is not a Watt or Bosa or Parsons Garrett etc.... (although a bit more durable...at least recently)

[Magox]

1 minute ago, JP51 said:

Sign Rousseau... sure... but sign him with the awareness of how streaky he is and in really important games he seems to disappear... that should factor into the money equation... the reality is that I feel it is gonna be a Tremaine Edmunds situation.... where player is ok... never gonna be a game wrecker, we aint gonna pay him like one, but some one will and then will regret it.... That said... you get him on a good deal I am fine with that... otherwise look to upgrade thru the draft... or however, cause he isnt so good that we cannot upgrade...  Now, maybe a game wrecker on the other side and a big body in the middle that requires a DT helps him out but he is not a Watt or Bosa or Parsons Garrett etc.... (although a bit more durable...at least recently)

 

If any "Game wrecker" is up for a new contract now, they can't be had for $24M AAV, they will all be $30M AAV and the very top 3-4 will be between $33M- $36M AAV.

 

$24M AAV is a top 20% starting edge rusher pay for guys entering into their prime.

[scuba guy]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I was in on signing Rousseau until the AFCCG. Maybe he was hurt but he was DEFINITELY not going at 100% out there. And unless there was an injury we don't know about that is inexcusable in a game of that magnitude. The first Mahomes rushing TD Groot just quit on the play. 

I am with you gunner

 Something was off. All year we herd about high fives and getting excited about play from the DC.  And the play on d was very flat from the get go.  Did someone not light a fire under your azz. Show him 18 with incentives and call it a day.

Qbs are signing for 20 to 25 percent of the cap.  You need 4 more big contracts out of the cap.

De

Cb

Wr

Lt

And yes Mr brown rt.

 

That does not leave much of the pie left for 46 players.

 

It's math people not that hard to figure it out.

[Magox]

1 minute ago, scuba guy said:

I am with you gunner

 Something was off. All year we herd about high fives and getting excited about play from the DC.  And the play on d was very flat from the get go.  Did someone not light a fire under your azz. Show him 18 with incentives and call it a day.

Qbs are signing for 20 to 25 percent of the cap.  You need 4 more big contracts out of the cap.

De

Cb

Wr

Lt

And yes Mr brown rt.

 

That does not leave much of the pie left for 46 players.

 

It's math people not that hard to figure it out.

 

 

It is math and there is plenty of money to bring back Cook, Shakir, Benford, Bernard, Rousseau and still spend money in FA.

 

It can easily be done.

[oldmanfan]

1 minute ago, Magox said:

 

 

It is math and there is plenty of money to bring back Cook, Shakir, Benford, Bernard, Rousseau and still spend money in FA.

 

It can easily be done.

Show the numbers then.

[JP51]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

If any "Game wrecker" is up for a new contract now, they can't be had for $24M AAV, they will all be $30M AAV and the very top 3-4 will be between $33M- $36M AAV.

 

$24M AAV is a top 20% starting edge rusher pay for guys entering into their prime.

agreed, and I would rather pay 24mm for a game wrecker than say... I dont know what 15mm for Rousseau...  we need someone that will raise the level of play of those around them as we have a lot of holes...  The whole pay little money for Toohill and Ford and Jefferson and Phillips and whom ever else they go get experiment... hasnt worked... the draft has failed us and we dont have a person that teams have to game plan around... so I get your point, but at this point we need to do what we need to do... .thats my opinion. 

[Process]

No way you can justify paying Greg $20M+. Let him play out his 5th year option and then walk, same as Edmunds. Hopefully get a nice comp pick back. 

[BillsDad51]

Thanks for the work on the post Magox. While he had a bad game against the Chiefs, his body of work for the season was outstanding. I've been watching replays of Bills games and Rousseau was a disruptive force. I also wonder what kind of stats he would put up if he was able to rush from the left side instead of ceding that spot to Von on passing downs.

[Magox]

4 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Show the numbers then.

Sure, I'd be happy to.

 

There is this cool tool provided by OVERTHECAP  https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills#google_vignette

If you click on the link You should be on the Bills team when you click the link and be able to scroll down and you’ll see where it shows 55 active players.

 

The first row will be the players, the second is cap number and the third and fourth are grouped together show dead money and 4th is cap savings.  
 

In that 3rd and 4th row grouping you will see a grey area where you can toggle the 6 options which are cut pre June 1, cut post June 1, trade pre June 1, post June 1, extension and restructure.

 

When you select any of those it changes the outcome on the 4th row cap savings.

 

Choose extend Cook, Shakir, Rousseau, Bernard, Benford, Josh Allen

 

Cut Daquan, Cut Von Miller  Pre June 1 (If you do post June 1 you get even more savings)

 

Restructure Dion Dawkins

 

This frees up over $40M in cap space.   Which brings back all the players and you still have lots of money to get new players!

[LabattBlue]

8 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Show the numbers then.

Yep. Everyone thinks the cap can be manipulated to the point where you can sign anyone and everyone.  Not so. 

[Magox]

Just now, LabattBlue said:

Yep. Everyone thinks the cap can be manipulated to the point where you can sign anyone and everyone.  Not so. 

 

I just showed how above the post.  It's right there, all you have to do is click on the link and follow the instructions I provided.   

[scuba guy]

6 minutes ago, oldmanfan said:

Show the numbers then.

So I guess he did not add. Cap hits 2025

Ja 44mill

KS 32 mill

Vm 24

Dion 20

Eo 21

Mm 14

Dk 14

Those player above come to 170 out of 280 million.

So 110 million on the rest of the team.

 

 

 

[SCBills]

19 minutes ago, scuba guy said:

I am with you gunner

 Something was off. All year we herd about high fives and getting excited about play from the DC.  And the play on d was very flat from the get go.  Did someone not light a fire under your azz. Show him 18 with incentives and call it a day.

Qbs are signing for 20 to 25 percent of the cap.  You need 4 more big contracts out of the cap.

De

Cb

Wr

Lt

And yes Mr brown rt.

 

That does not leave much of the pie left for 46 players.

 

It's math people not that hard to figure it out.

 

Josh Allen

Greg Rousseau

Ed Oliver

Big Ticket EDGE via Trade

Dion Dawkins

Spencer Brown

 

I'm fine with that being our big money core for the next few years.  JA & the trenches.

 

I could see us bringing in another 8-15M WR (Slayton, Brown etc), premium draft pick potentially, but not sure I see us adding a big ticket WR to the room.

 

As for CB, I'm probably in the minority, but I'm not sold on paying Benford.  He's 0/3 on staying healthy in the playoffs and isn't an elite playmaking CB.  Like most everyone else on this roster, he's very good.. not great.  And, imo, replaceable.

 

 

Edited 3 hours ago by SCBills