Bills and Khalil Shakir agree to 4-year extension ($60.2 million/$32 million guaranteed)

[aristocrat]

Was pretty shocked at the 15 mil per. Tonight he’d be around 20. Would love to see another downfield threat and see if that raises his stats even more. 

[GolfandBills]

8 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

Mixed feelings. 
 

like the player. Definitely not priced out to his ceiling

 

not sure whether paying $15m for this type of player is actually getting us closer or not. 

They aren’t paying him 15 million a year.  

[harmonkillebrew]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

This is where I get to write:  I told you so 

 

This is what I have been saying...Bills love him and want him here...he loves it here and wants to be here...he is on a 5th round rookie deal where an injury risk is huge for him this year.  They were going to for sure want to extend him now before he gets to FA and he would be motivated to get it done and give a home town discount well below where people like sportrac were saying over $19M.  

 

LOVE LOVE LOVE this.  Great for him, Great for the Bills.  

 

LFG.

Cook's behavior is probably really counterproductive.  Not sure who is agent is or what he's advising.  Seems the Bills like to quietly lock up good players without the drama. Cook might have screwed his chance, unless the Bills are already low-balling him

[Brand J]

2 hours ago, SCBills said:

I didn’t say Shakir is elite.  
 

James Cook is a tier 2 RB and Shakir may or may not be that at Slot WR. 
 

You named some outliers but it doesn’t change the fact that, even now, it’s much tougher to find WR’s than RB’s.

 

In Shakir’s draft class, guys like Treylon Burks, Jahan Dotson, John Metchie, Danny Gray, Jalen Tolbert and Skyy Moore were taken early and often.  There are a ton of swing/misses at WR every year. 

 

We also have an elite QB and elite OL.. for a team like us, paying 10-15M for a RB makes even less sense. 

Paying 15M for a class act, reliably good slot WR who has insane chemistry with Josh Allen does make sense.   Approaching 20M for Shakir.. no.. but this one came in at a solid number. 

 

 

My misunderstanding. You said Khalil got the deal because “it’s not easy to find players like him” and then later stated it’s easy to find RBs like Cook, just not the elite ones. I took that to mean you believed Shakir was elite since “players like him are difficult to find.” 
 

Of course there are going to be more swings and misses on WRs, there’s 3-4 of them on the field at any given time versus 1 RB. Volume wise they have to be selected at a higher clip. 
 

I love the deal Shakir got, but nothing you said has convinced me there’s not an inequity between WR and RB contracts. Cook will likely sign for less than $15M/yr, but it isn’t because his value to the Bills offense is less than Shakir’s, it’s because the market value between the two positions are out of whack. 

[Beck Water]

9 hours ago, Jerry Jabber said:

 

 

I can see the steam rising from Jimbo Cook and his agent's ears.....wonder if they and Beane are working on one?

Seriously, did not expect to see Beane prioritizing extensions!  Shows what I know!

9 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

UP TO $60M.

 

Yes, it's "up to" $60M.  The devil is always in the details.....

[HappyDays]

8 hours ago, TheWeatherMan said:

gambling on a player with a history of scary concussions isn’t wise.

 

Benford doesn't have a "history of scary concussions." He has two concussions in his entire career, both of which happened in successive weeks. I don't see that as evidence that he is concussion prone. I see it as evidence that the Bills medical staff (with the blessing of the NFL) rushed a player through the concussion protocol for an important game. In retrospect I feel guilty for hoping he would clear it and play. No way he should have been back on the field so soon, but he'll be fine for the long term.

 

Edited 6 hours ago by HappyDays

[DCofNC]

2 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Production wise I think it's a fair contract. A slot WR catching 75ish catches 800-900 yards on modest volume with great efficiency is worth 15 million a season in their prime. It is not an overpay but not great value either. But I think much like Brown there is also positive projection which is a smart gamble to make. Brown had he just continued to play like he did in 2023 would have been worth the value of his contract but it wouldn't have been the amazing value it turned out to be after he got better in 2024. 

 

I think there is the smart idea that if he maintains his level of production the contract is a fair deal, whereas if he continues to develop the contract is a steal. It's a smart piece of business for McBeane. Hoping they can take care of Benford and Bernard too on fair deals. Cook is tricky however not sure where they are going with him long term. 

Agreed, this has the potential to look really good if Shakir can stay healthy and incrementally improve year over year.  He’s talented and the real key to the offense IMO. 
 

I’m all for a similar type of deal for Benford.  That’s where I stop though.  Cook is out of his mind on value, he should be paid around 9M based on performance and limitations, but I hope he gets it somewhere else because he’s not a true game changer IMO and that’s the ONLY reason to pay a RB. I’m really not keen on Bernard (too small and injury prone), Groot (too much magician in his blood, likes to disappear in big moments), or really any one else right now.  This roster is very much lacking in difference makers and you can’t get those guys if you are paying a bunch of Ok players. Good is the Enemy of Great, it’s time to be great.

[billsfan89]

15 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I can see the steam rising from Jimbo Cook and his agent's ears.....wonder if they and Beane are working on one?

Seriously, did not expect to see Beane prioritizing extensions!  Shows what I know!

 

Yes, it's "up to" $60M.  The devil is always in the details.....

 

The Bills have 4 significant draft picks from 2022 entering into the final years of their deals and Groot on his 5th year option. I suspected the Bills would have wanted to take at least 2 of those players off the board at a minimum and they can't do it all later in the off-season. 

 

16 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

Agreed, this has the potential to look really good if Shakir can stay healthy and incrementally improve year over year.  He’s talented and the real key to the offense IMO. 
 

I’m all for a similar type of deal for Benford.  That’s where I stop though.  Cook is out of his mind on value, he should be paid around 9M based on performance and limitations, but I hope he gets it somewhere else because he’s not a true game changer IMO and that’s the ONLY reason to pay a RB. I’m really not keen on Bernard (too small and injury prone), Groot (too much magician in his blood, likes to disappear in big moments), or really any one else right now.  This roster is very much lacking in difference makers and you can’t get those guys if you are paying a bunch of Ok players. Good is the Enemy of Great, it’s time to be great.

 

I like the idea of keeping at least 2 out of the 3 of Groot, Benford and Bernard. Longer term on defense Milano and Von will be off the books in the coming years along with mid-level contracts like D.Jones and AJE so cap dollars on defense will be coming off down the line. Ideally I would keep all 3 but there's only so many cap dollars you can extend out even if some cap dollars fall off but keeping 2 out of the 3 is needed in my opinion. 

 

Cook he's a critical player but you also have to draw a line 9-10 million maybe 11 if you really feel he's that important but he's not worth anywhere near 15 million a season. 

[In Summary]

4 hours ago, Low Positive said:

I know Andre Reed is the gold standard for WRs around here, but here is a comparison of their 3rd seasons. Just sayin'...

 

Looks like Shakir is on the right path.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, NoSaint said:

not sure whether paying $15m for this type of player is actually getting us closer or not. 

 

Re-signing your own never gets you closer. But Shakir is the only pass catcher we have that is clearly part of the core of the team. If we were dealing with a Ja'Marr Chase situation then it's an easy decision to let him walk, but in an offense where very little money is being spent on skill positions it's a luxury we can afford IMO.

[ganesh]

11 hours ago, klos63 said:

I have to wonder if Bernard is going to get a 2nd contract. 

Not sure it's the right move. 

I agree.  I don't think Bernard gets a contract extension this year.  His play in 2024 was well below how he played in 2023.  I think the Bills are going to wait and see until 2025 is done.

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

Isn't this deal an extension? Shakir is still going to be on his rookie deal in 2025? 

 

Yes but the amortised signing bonus kicks in immediately. I imagine they have reduced his 2025 salary from the planned $3.4m down to the vet min $1.1m which "saves" you $2.3m but then I bet the amortised signing bonus is in $2-3m per year range. So best case is it is about cap neutral for 2025.

 

There are ways you can get creative and try and eek some cap savings out with smaller signing bonus big guaranteed restructure bonus in 2026... so guarantee Khalil his $1.1m base salary in 2025, plus say a $6m initial signing bonus spread over 5 years (the one remaining rookie contract year and the four new ones at about $1.2m per year) so you have given him $7m in money straight away which is double what he would have earned in 2025 on the rookie deal. Then guarantee his 2026 salary at say $6m plus a guranteed built in restructure bonus of $19m (which gets you to the reported $32m in total guarantees) which would then spread the $19m out over only the 4 years of the new deal so he would have a standing amortisation charge of $1.2m (original signing bonus) and $4.75m (restructure bonus) in all four years of the new deal which means basically the minimum he could ever cost on the cap those remaining years would be c. $6m... and you'd still have to add an average of $9m per year of non-guaranteed salary to that to round out the $60m. 

 

Personally not sure that is worth it in order to find another $1m of cap space in 2025. I'd expect a more coventional structure something like:

 

Base salary in 2025: $1.1m (vet min for him)

Total signing bonus: $12.5m 

Amortised signing bonus charge in 2025: $2.5m

Total 2025 cap hit: $3.5m

 

 

[gonzo1105]

16 minutes ago, ganesh said:

I agree.  I don't think Bernard gets a contract extension this year.  His play in 2024 was well below how he played in 2023.  I think the Bills are going to wait and see until 2025 is done.

 

I think the next guy they will work on is Benford.

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Re-signing your own never gets you closer. But Shakir is the only pass catcher we have that is clearly part of the core of the team. If we were dealing with a Ja'Marr Chase situation then it's an easy decision to let him walk, but in an offense where very little money is being spent on skill positions it's a luxury we can afford IMO.

 

It does, I think, kill off the prospect of the blockbuster vet receiver trade in 2025. That was always my take. Shakir I'd do if you could get him in at $15m AAV - so long as you have a plan for outside receiver that you think is cost effective in terms of vet FA or draft. You gotta give Josh one guy at least he knows he can trust and who is going to be here. I expect as well when we see the details the Bills are tied to him for 2025, 2026 and 2027, there is an expensive out that they could take but would rather not in 2028 and then a much cheaper out that they might take depending on performance in 2029.

[BigDingus]

11 hours ago, Magox said:

Now we just need to get Cook at around $12m AAV, Bernard at around $10m AAV, Rousseau at around $23m AAV and Benford around $21m AAV.

 

Get all these deals done and that frees up close to $20m from this years cap, extend Josh to an additional 4 years $245m and that will free up another $12m

 

Out of all those, I do not think Rousseau is worth $23 million a year. He's good enough, sometimes, but he disappears in too many games. He's not a real force that demands constant attention. It's like Ed. Sometimes good, seems good in advanced stats, but then you don't see him do much in a lot of games.

[BullBuchanan]

9 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You just aren't being realistic about your expectations.  Groot was an Elite NFL DE when it comes to run Defense and a B-B+ pass rusher.  He had 8 sacks, 16 TFLs, 3 Forced Fumbles, 1 Fumble Recovery and 3 Passes Defensed.

 

If he gets paid $22m AAV, that would translate to about 8% of the 2025 CAP.  % of the CAP at signing is really what we need to look at when it comes to these contracts and lucky for us, that's easy to find:

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/contracts/_/position/edge/sort/average_league_cap_pct/dir/desc

 

If Groot signed a contract for $22m AAV, he'd be 15th in the NFL in terms of Edge Rusher contracts at signing when it comes to % of the CAP.  He'd be just behind Harold Landry and just ahead of Joey Bosa.

And I say you're settling for a roster building strategy that's proven to be unsuccessful. A DE whose specialty is stopping the run isn't worth $22M a year. That guy is your Phil Hansen, not your Bruce Smith. You want a run stopping DE? Go get a guy like Shaq Lawson for $1M a year like we did last season. The cheifs completely shut down Barkley and they got blown out. It does not matter in any way that is significant. Groot isn't a bum, but he's not a #1 DE on a  championship team.

You want to win a Super Bowl in today's NFL? Build a D line that can rush 4 and can't be stopped. That's how the Giants beat Brady and it's how the Eagles annihilated Mahomes. That means letting players like Groot go and bringing in guys like Crosby/Garret and pairing them with guys like Dexter Lawrence. In this case, good is the enemy of great.

[HappyDays]

16 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

It does, I think, kill off the prospect of the blockbuster vet receiver trade in 2025.

 

I think it's very possible to have one mid-tier WR contract and one upper tier WR contract. If anything that should be the goal. Philly is doing that right now. $15M AAV (and by reports it will actually be less than that anyways) is just not that much under the modern salary cap, especially since the new cap hits won't kick in until 2026 when the cap will likely be around $300M. As recently as 2022 his contract would have been equivalent to a $10M AAV based on that year's salary cap. The cap is rising so rapidly I don't think fans are keeping up with it so we still get the sticker shock of the $15M number. And for the Bills especially it should be easy because we have no upper tier contracts to hand out. Allen will get extended but that will actually lower his cap hits. Benford I think will get $20M. Rousseau TBD. If we can't fit say a big DK Metcalf extension into that picture, Beane isn't doing his job well at all.

[Magox]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes but the amortised signing bonus kicks in immediately. I imagine they have reduced his 2025 salary from the planned $3.4m down to the vet min $1.1m which "saves" you $2.3m but then I bet the amortised signing bonus is in $2-3m per year range. So best case is it is about cap neutral for 2025.

 

There are ways you can get creative and try and eek some cap savings out with smaller signing bonus big guaranteed restructure bonus in 2026... so guarantee Khalil his $1.1m base salary in 2025, plus say a $6m initial signing bonus spread over 5 years (the one remaining rookie contract year and the four new ones at about $1.2m per year) so you have given him $7m in money straight away which is double what he would have earned in 2025 on the rookie deal. Then guarantee his 2026 salary at say $6m plus a guranteed built in restructure bonus of $19m (which gets you to the reported $32m in total guarantees) which would then spread the $19m out over only the 4 years of the new deal so he would have a standing amortisation charge of $1.2m (original signing bonus) and $4.75m (restructure bonus) in all four years of the new deal which means basically the minimum he could ever cost on the cap those remaining years would be c. $6m... and you'd still have to add an average of $9m per year of non-guaranteed salary to that to round out the $60m. 

 

Personally not sure that is worth it in order to find another $1m of cap space in 2025. I'd expect a more coventional structure something like:

 

Base salary in 2025: $1.1m (vet min for him)

Total signing bonus: $12.5m 

Amortised signing bonus charge in 2025: $2.5m

Total 2025 cap hit: $3.5m

 

 

The extension, depending on how it’s structured count have a net savings of around $1.8M for 2025

 

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills#google_vignette

[GunnerBill]

56 minutes ago, Magox said:

The extension, depending on how it’s structured count have a net savings of around $1.8M for 2025

 

https://overthecap.com/salary-cap/buffalo-bills#google_vignette

 

How? It's $3.4m now.

 

The vet min salary for Shakir in 2025 is $1.1m. But there will be a signing bonus to be amortised on the cap. For a saving of $1.8m that would have to be just a $2.5m signinf bonus spread over 5 years (the current year and the 4 new ones) and no way his agent has let him take that.