Bills and Khalil Shakir agree to 4-year extension ($60.2 million/$32 million guaranteed)

[Jrb1979]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

By the way, Greg Tompsett points out that these 4 years are added as new money onto the last year of his rookie deal, when he's slated to make $3.3m due to proven performance escalators.

 

5 year $63.5m deal locks him up through age 30.

 

Even better!

 

@BullBuchanan and @Jrb1979... stop your whining!

I have no problem with the deal at all. It is a very good deal. My point was more that while he is a very good player, he's not as great as some make him out to be. 

[Warriorspikes51]

will be very interesting to see what else we do at WR 

__________
Shakir

Coleman
Samuel   

I believe Hollins has earned a 2 year deal here.  Really want him brought back.  He brings the nasty element
 

Cooper I think is a big 50 / 50 on whether he's brought back.  I'm leaning toward them not doing it 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 2/25/2025 at 12:46 PM, chongli said:

 

 

Whoa. How did I miss this ? This is more of a contract based on potential. 

[Ayjent]

Can we get Keon working out with Moulds and Shakir?

[transplantbillsfan]

9 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

I have no problem with the deal at all. It is a very good deal. My point was more that while he is a very good player, he's not as great as some make him out to be. 

 

I guess I don't know what those people are arguing, but I think Shakir would be the 2nd best WR on the vast majority of NFL teams with obvious exceptions like the Dolphins, Bengals and Eagles.

 

And I don't think we've seen his ceiling and Beane is banking on that the same way he did with the Spencer Brown deal, which now looks like a steal.

 

His deal is fantastic for that reason.

[billsfan89]

13 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

Whoa. How did I miss this ? This is more of a contract based on potential. 

 

A highly efficient slot WR getting 800-900 yards a season hauling in 85-90% of his targets is worth 15 million a year. Shakir got a deal in line with him continuing to produce like he did in 2024. It's a smart deal because it is likely Shakir will improve and his contract will be a great value. But if he stays the same he is not overpaid. 

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

 

A highly efficient slot WR getting 800-900 yards a season hauling in 85-90% of his targets is worth 15 million a year. Shakir got a deal in line with him continuing to produce like he did in 2024. It's a smart deal because it is likely Shakir will improve and his contract will be a great value. But if he stays the same he is not overpaid. 

And the $15M is listed as "up to" which suggests to me, Shakir would have to improve to get that amount.  Seems like Shakir took his current market value in an extension to get guaranteed money and a signing bonus. 

[GunnerBill]

On 2/27/2025 at 5:59 PM, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Top 3????

 

Yes. Absolutely. Probably top 2 on the Chiefs... maybe the best for that team

 

Your honestly telling me you would take any of Jahon Dotson, JuJu Smith Schuster, Skyy Moore, Justin Watson, 2024 DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy over Khalil Shakir?

 

There's no point in having a conversation about this if you really would swap Shakir with any of those guys right now.

 

And like I said, I think he’s also a better Wide Receiver than Hollywood Brown.

 

He would start in the slot for Philly. 100%. Jahan Dotson sucks. I thought he might hit moved into the slot this year with AJ and Smiddy outside but he was the same bang average, unreliable, poor route runner he was outside. If you re-drafted that class now Shakir goes before Dotson. There is no doubt about that. 

 

Would he start for KC? Bit trickier to say. KC actually used a ton of 12 personnel this year with Gray and Kelce as tight ends. In even in four wide scenarios they'd have a double tight end slot look. And Shakir can't play wide. I'm not even engaging in that argument again it is proven beyond any reasonable doubt at this point. So no, he wouldn't start ahead of Worthy or Brown and he isn't better than those guys. When they used 11 personnel generally Brown or Worthy came inside and Hopkins or Watson came in on the outside. The guy who was closes to their specialist slot was JuJu and I think at this stage in their careers yes, Shakir is better than JuJu. But that doesn't necessarily make you a starter for the Chiefs. Slot receiver for them isn't a "starting position" in the same way.

[Magox]

Even though Shakir who I would characterize as “just a slot guy” is a guy who excels at the slot.  The slot position has become a lot more valuable than it has in the past as it allows offensive play callers to utilize players to take advantage against matchups that are presented.

 

But where people get it wrong in how they view slot receivers is that they believe that if a player can’t excel at the boundary that they just throw the scrap players to the slot.

 

Nothing is further from the truth.  To play the slot you have to have a different skill set than a boundary receiver.  Boundary receivers operate more on an island where their primary objective is to beat the man in front of them.   A receiver from the slot has more responsibilities and relies more on reading defenses on how to attack vulnerabilities.

 

Obviously this is an oversimplification as playing in both positions you have to do some of all of the above.

 

It’s sort of like comparing tackles to guards, they both have to block against incoming rushers and run block, in essence they do the same just that they need different skill sets to accomplish their goals.    And since tackles have to usually go up against the better pass rushers on an island they are generally viewed more valuable than guards.

 

But again, where people get it wrong is that they believe a middling to low end #1 WR is more valuable than a top end Slot.    Thats like saying  Alontae Taylor who is one of the worst starting tackles is more valuable than Chris Lindstrom who is one of the best guards.   Simply because he plays a position of higher general value.

 

Shakir has the 14th highest WR epa and 2nd highest who plays in the slot in the NFL.

https://www.nfeloapp.com/nfl-receiving-leaders/
 

The EPA metric is one of my favorite ones as it is a metric that measures efficiency of that player when opportunities are presented.  Expected Points Added.  EPA is calculated by subtracting the expected points before a play from the expected points after the play.

 

Just like any other stat or metric they aren’t determinative or the end all but it is a metric that I believe is very insightful.

 

Shakir’s true value isn’t so much his route running, he’s decent on that front, it’s that he catches just about everything thrown his way, he makes clutch plays and that he is a YAC monster.   
 

At $15m AAV it is a huge bargain for the Bills 

[FireChans]

44 minutes ago, Magox said:

But again, where people get it wrong is that they believe a middling to low end #1 WR is more valuable than a top end Slot.    Thats like saying  Alontae Taylor who is one of the worst starting tackles is more valuable than Chris Lindstrom who is one of the best guards.   Simply because he plays a position of higher general value

Um, wouldn’t a better comparison be a middling to lower end LT vs a top end OG? 

 

Sure a top end slot is worth more than the worst starting boundary WR. A top end DE is more valuable than the worst QB. 
 

Weird comparison. 

[JaCrispy]

I think we got a bargain 

[colin]

i see shakir on o as i do (did) milano on D.  the combination of their ability, value to the team, and positional value.  Milano was at a slightly lower value position, is a better player at that position, but has lower value to the team (hurt too much, this is before he signed his contract).  if shakir stays healthy, it's a quality and good value signing.  

[No_Matter_What]

This has to be the most secret contract ever.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

22 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

This has to be the most secret contract ever.

 

[Franchiseneedsme]

Willing to use void years is a change 👀 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, Franchiseneedsme said:

Willing to use void years is a change 👀 

They’ve done it. Just not to the extent of the Eagles. No one else does it to that extent. This is a pretty small usage of a void year.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

 

Spotrac is saying there would only be a $4.2M dead cap hit if cut in 2027. That seems almost too good to be true. If this is accurate it's a tremendously team friendly deal.

[Magox]

15 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

They’ve done it. Just not to the extent of the Eagles. No one else does it to that extent. This is a pretty small usage of a void year.

 

They plan on filling it up.   2027 has a $10M base salary, 2028 has an $11M and 2029 $11.25M, they can convert those salaries to a bonus and spread it out in the remaining years including the bonus.  

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Spotrac is saying there would only be a $4.2M dead cap hit if cut in 2027. That seems almost too good to be true. If this is accurate it's a tremendously team friendly deal.

 

Nah, in reality it is more than that. It's as I predicted they'd have to do if they wanted to keep the 2025 hit down. A small pro-rated signing bonus (only $7m spread over 5 years) with another chunk - $9.1m - as an "option bonus" that triggers in 2026 and is amortized at $1.8m for the remaining 4 years of the deal and a 5th void year. 

 

If you cut him before the 2027 season there would be $4.2m of the original signing bonus left as dead cap and $7.3m of the 2026 option bonus left as dead cap.  So it would be a total of $11.5m to cut him before 2027. Reducing by $3.2m per year thereafter. 

 

 

Edited Wednesday at 04:16 PM by GunnerBill

[Einstein's Dog]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Spotrac is saying there would only be a $4.2M dead cap hit if cut in 2027. That seems almost too good to be true. If this is accurate it's a tremendously team friendly deal.

And if this is what Cook means by his $15M then I can see it.