Bills and Khalil Shakir agree to 4-year extension ($60.2 million/$32 million guaranteed)

[Andrew Son]

45 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Might as well kept Davis for 13 mil a year.

LOL!  You'll never give him up!

[ColoradoBills]

1 hour ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

He's getting Courtland Sutton money for far less than Sutton production.  Might as well kept Davis for 13 mil a year.

 

No one is telling you to like the signing.  I think it's great news.

[Mister Defense]

Great news, as Shakir will clearly be a cornerstone of this offense under Allen.

 

He may become a perennial pro bowler once the Bills have a high level wideout or two on the boundaries--and throw the ball to the backs more.

 

Seems like a bargain price, maybe a considerable one.  Time will tell.

 

Thanks, Beane!  Now, show Cook some love..and lock up someone who is just as vital to this offense, and like Shakir, just getting started.

 

 

Edited 5 hours ago by Mister Defense

[BillsVet]

10 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

It does, I think, kill off the prospect of the blockbuster vet receiver trade in 2025. That was always my take. Shakir I'd do if you could get him in at $15m AAV - so long as you have a plan for outside receiver that you think is cost effective in terms of vet FA or draft. You gotta give Josh one guy at least he knows he can trust and who is going to be here. I expect as well when we see the details the Bills are tied to him for 2025, 2026 and 2027, there is an expensive out that they could take but would rather not in 2028 and then a much cheaper out that they might take depending on performance in 2029.

 

I really hope you're wrong, but it's a reasonable take primarily because I suspect their off-season review concluded the defense needs more personnel investment.  Sure, that's not altogether wrong, but to add corners who can cover M2M, more stout DTs, another DE who can rush the passer, and another safety...well, it leaves less to make that big acquisition on offense even with freeing up more cap room.  

 

Still, something's truly lost on McBeane where they don't try to take an asset and maximize it.  As in, you have a guy like Shakir who is a slot-only receiver running shallow patterns despite his RAC ability now being paid good money.  Investing in a top-end boundary receiver or 2 undoubtedly opens him up and yet it's quite possible they trot out those replacement level (if that) boundary receivers.  And that inhibits Josh as we saw in the Baltimore game when their passing game was easily disrupted.

[Mister Defense]

21 hours ago, ddaryl said:

did you notice how Shakir didn't use social media demanding a new contract with a certain amount nor did he delete all references to the Bills....

 

 

He is not a running back, a group that has been notoriously underpaid for years now.  He did not need to do that. Cook may have, to strengthen his hand.

 

But I believe this is a sign that the Bills will very soon do the right thing and sign Cook to a similar contract, though maybe one more based on incentives. 

 

 

[ddaryl]

37 minutes ago, Mister Defense said:

 

He is not a running back, a group that has been notoriously underpaid for years now.  He did not need to do that. Cook may have, to strengthen his hand.

 

But I believe this is a sign that the Bills will very soon do the right thing and sign Cook to a similar contract, though maybe one more based on incentives. 

 

 

 

Doesn't change the fact I lost respect for the player. 

[Einstein's Dog]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I think it's very possible to have one mid-tier WR contract and one upper tier WR contract. If anything that should be the goal. Philly is doing that right now. $15M AAV (and by reports it will actually be less than that anyways) is just not that much under the modern salary cap, especially since the new cap hits won't kick in until 2026 when the cap will likely be around $300M. As recently as 2022 his contract would have been equivalent to a $10M AAV based on that year's salary cap. The cap is rising so rapidly I don't think fans are keeping up with it so we still get the sticker shock of the $15M number. And for the Bills especially it should be easy because we have no upper tier contracts to hand out. Allen will get extended but that will actually lower his cap hits. Benford I think will get $20M. Rousseau TBD. If we can't fit say a big DK Metcalf extension into that picture, Beane isn't doing his job well at all.

I agree, I think/hope that the FO is trying to get back to the plan of paying franchise QB/LT/DE/WR1. 

 

They've got the QB+LT, now need to try again with DE and WR1.  A stand out DE will take draft capital and money for a Garrett/Crosby so I don't think the FO would invest both draft + money for the WR also, which IMO makes DK a long shot (which is unfortunate IMO but understandable).

 

With the overall offensive success with a mediocre A Cooper the FO may have revised and lowered their anticipated investment in a top WR.  I'm hoping they don't go too cheap, I'd like to see D Adams or C Godwin at the $20M mark.  Then there is the drop down to DHop, Slayton or Hollywood Brown.

 

 

[Chandler#81]

 

[DCofNC]

2 hours ago, SoCal Deek said:

Thanks. That’s an interesting way to look at it…and I honestly wish more people did. If you have essentially 50 players then each one represents 2% of the roster. So you’ve gotta think that starters are at 3% and subs are at 1%. Then figure in that you’ve got a few exceptional starters at 4% and a few special teamers and rookies at something lower than 1%. It’s quite a balancing act for sure. While we all take the occasional jab at Beane, it’s a really tricky job for sure. 

In reality, most starters are taking up more than 4% once they hit a second deal.  The QB takes up a massive percentage.  The balance is finding a way to pay about 8 guys a total of 50+% of the cap and fill the rest of the roster with good enough players to be competitive.   This is why drafting is SO IMPORTANT and finding impact players is a HUGE deal.  This is also the thing Beane has failed to do here.  The talent on the roster is severely lower than the Chiefs, Eagles, Ravens, etc because the drafts have not yielded any impact players.  His best pick outside of Allen, has been Benford, a 6th round pick.  That’s flat out scary and explains the roster issues. 

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

3 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 Might as well kept Davis for 13 mil a year.

 

Oh so you are a joke poster, I like it.

[SoCal Deek]

50 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

In reality, most starters are taking up more than 4% once they hit a second deal.  The QB takes up a massive percentage.  The balance is finding a way to pay about 8 guys a total of 50+% of the cap and fill the rest of the roster with good enough players to be competitive.   This is why drafting is SO IMPORTANT and finding impact players is a HUGE deal.  This is also the thing Beane has failed to do here.  The talent on the roster is severely lower than the Chiefs, Eagles, Ravens, etc because the drafts have not yielded any impact players.  His best pick outside of Allen, has been Benford, a 6th round pick.  That’s flat out scary and explains the roster issues. 

Yep....so all the more reason why paying Shakir something close to 4 or 5% of the roster seems like a REALLY good deal.

[Mr. WEO]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hmm. I think two things on this....

 

1. Shakir's 2024 is about the median year for Courtland Sutton. Okay, at this stage that is a career year for Shakir and if it still looks that way halfway through this deal it will have been an overpay, but if he can consistently be in the 800 yard range (I think he can personally) it will look better. 

 

2. Courtland Sutton signed his deal halfway through the 2021 season. It is three and a half years old. The salary cap has rocketed by over 50% in that period. The Broncos and Sutton are in talks currently about extending him again. It won't be for anything close to $15m, he will get way more.

 

Cap is ever increasing--that's baked into all contract negotiations I would think.  Would Sutton get, say, 20 million per on his next contract?  I don't think so--it's still a ton for a WR2 type production. 

4 hours ago, Andrew Son said:

LOL!  You'll never give him up!

 

compare the 2, first 3 years.

[transplantbillsfan]

14 hours ago, BullBuchanan said:

And I say you're settling for a roster building strategy that's proven to be unsuccessful. A DE whose specialty is stopping the run isn't worth $22M a year. That guy is your Phil Hansen, not your Bruce Smith. You want a run stopping DE? Go get a guy like Shaq Lawson for $1M a year like we did last season. The cheifs completely shut down Barkley and they got blown out. It does not matter in any way that is significant. Groot isn't a bum, but he's not a #1 DE on a  championship team.

You want to win a Super Bowl in today's NFL? Build a D line that can rush 4 and can't be stopped. That's how the Giants beat Brady and it's how the Eagles annihilated Mahomes. That means letting players like Groot go and bringing in guys like Crosby/Garret and pairing them with guys like Dexter Lawrence. In this case, good is the enemy of great.

 

You seem to base all of your evaluation on Groot on the Chiefs game.  If you want to do that we should probably cut most of the defense.

 

He was really good throughout the entirety of the season.

 

In terms of all edge rushers in the NFL throughout the year, according to PFF, he had the 3rd most Forced Fumbles, 10th most Stops, 19th most sacks, 18th most hurries, 2nd most QB hits, 3rd most QB pressures and 11th most batted passes all while ranking 25th among players at his position in total snaps.

 

That type of production is the type of production that should earn a contract in the 10th-15th pass rusher range, which is exactly what we're talking about.

 

And then just imagine what will happen for his production when we get someone better than what we had in 2024 on the opposite side of the line?

[GunnerBill]

59 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

Cap is ever increasing--that's baked into all contract negotiations I would think.  Would Sutton get, say, 20 million per on his next contract?  I don't think so--it's still a ton for a WR2 type production. 

 

 

Exactly. Cap is ever increasing. $15m now isn't $15m three and a half years ago. 

 

And YES Sutton will get more than $20m AAV on his next deal. My guess is he will be closer to 25 than 20.

[Magox]

19 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

You seem to base all of your evaluation on Groot on the Chiefs game.  If you want to do that we should probably cut most of the defense.

 

He was really good throughout the entirety of the season.

 

In terms of all edge rushers in the NFL throughout the year, according to PFF, he had the 3rd most Forced Fumbles, 10th most Stops, 19th most sacks, 18th most hurries, 2nd most QB hits, 3rd most QB pressures and 11th most batted passes all while ranking 25th among players at his position in total snaps.

 

That type of production is the type of production that should earn a contract in the 10th-15th pass rusher range, which is exactly what we're talking about.

 

And then just imagine what will happen for his production when we get someone better than what we had in 2024 on the opposite side of the line?

 I have seen this argument made before.