Bills and Khalil Shakir agree to 4-year extension ($60.2 million/$32 million guaranteed)

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Magox said:

Not sure, that’s what Overthecap site  shows.  Have a look, you can see the savings or additional hits with extensions, releases, post June releases and restructures

 

I can't see that the link just sends me back to the overall Bills cap table?

[Magox]

3 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I can't see that the link just sends me back to the overall Bills cap table?

You should be on the Bills team when you click the link and be able to scroll down and you’ll see where it shows 55 active players.

 

The first row will be the players, the second is cap number and the third and fourth are grouped together show dead money and 4th is cap savings.  
 

In that 3rd and 4th row grouping you will see a grey area where you can toggle the 6 options which are cut pre June 1, cut post June 1, trade pre June 1, post June 1, extension and restructure.

 

When you select any of those it changes the outcome on the 4th row cap savings.

[finn]

11 hours ago, SCBills said:

Ok, but we don’t have Saquon Barkley.  
 

The reason a Khalil Shakir makes 15M and people think it’s a team friendly deal is because it’s not easy to find Khalil Shakir’s.  
 

WR is more plug and play than ever, but you still have a ton of swing and misses at the position.. even with premium picks. 
 

RB, not as difficult to find outside the truly elite.. of which James Cook is not… and you mention pass pro, which Cook isn’t good at anyway.  

Either let him play out his contract and audition for other teams, meanwhile drafting and developing his replacement in a RB-rich class, or trade him and use that pick to move up into the second round for a RB who is ready to start. Use that big salary Cook wants on the many, many needs elsewhere. 

 

Plus, negotiating via social media and his me-first attitude disgusts me. If I'm Beane I snuff that out by doing anything but give Cook what he wants. 

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Magox said:

You should be on the Bills team when you click the link and be able to scroll down and you’ll see where it shows 55 active players.

 

The first row will be the players, the second is cap number and the third and fourth are grouped together show dead money and 4th is cap savings.  
 

In that 3rd and 4th row grouping you will see a grey area where you can toggle the 6 options which are cut pre June 1, cut post June 1, trade pre June 1, post June 1, extension and restructure.

 

When you select any of those it changes the outcome on the 4th row cap savings.

 

Ah got it. No idea how they calculate that. I'd be surprised if there are any cap savings from this deal.

[colin]

joe marino always goes on about % of cap.

 

this is just shy of 5.5%, if the cap is going to pop as much in the next two years as it has in the last two years, that's going to be closer to 4%.

 

we can do this, extend groot, trade for garrett, and even bring in a vet cb/wr this offseason based on the above.  we have to get cheaper elsewhere, which means rookies come in and play well.

 

von, knox, milano will all have contract reductions or be let go in the next two years.  allen can be extended to shift his cap forward when cap inflation makes the % much smaller.

 

i think shakir would get about that in FA, and you can argue his skill set isn't worth that, but you don't put a uniform on skill sets, you put a uniform on players, and his chemistry w allen, his level of work and focus, and his understanding of the offense on this team are all really really high value.  

 

this being kinda cheap for his production vs cook being eye watering at the same contract shows a great example of relative value in the nfl.  you play with 3 and change wrs on average, and 1 and change rbs on average.  upgrading an individual wr gives you more opportunity for comparative advantage on offense, the d has to pick their poison and potentially change coverage.  you generally defend an RB more or less the same way, and the OL has such a huge impact on the run game that we have high levels of production per snap on all of our RBs.  i think the nfl has gone a little too far w over valuing wrs (especially the top guys) and undervaluing rbs (again, especially the top guys, henry and barkley were obvious cheat code level players who were obtained for not much % of cap) but the direction is right.

 

by the 3rd year of this contract (4 years time from now), after the guarantee is more or less absorbed (im guessing, assuming no restructures) shakir will be like 3 and change % of cap.  he was our best wr in 2023 even with diggs having a huge start to his season, that's a pretty good value proposition. 

[Magox]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ah got it. No idea how they calculate that. I'd be surprised if there are any cap savings from this deal.

 

Yeah, I'm not sure.  They make the assumptions without seeing what the extension would look like.  Will be interesting to see once the contract details are out.

[Mr. WEO]

sweet coin for a guy with 1600 career yards on a team starving for an alpha WR...

[MrEpsYtown]

Love Shakir so what else will they do? Does anyone think they will allocate another 15-20 per for a top guy or are we essentially running it back with an more expensive Shakir and no Cooper? 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

19 hours ago, Magox said:

Now we just need to get Cook at around $12m AAV, Bernard at around $10m AAV, Rousseau at around $23m AAV and Benford around $21m AAV.

 

Get all these deals done and that frees up close to $20m from this years cap, extend Josh to an additional 4 years $245m and that will free up another $12m

Why would anyone pay Rouse 23 mil? Guy never had a double digits sack season.

[DCofNC]

8 hours ago, billsfan89 said:

 

The Bills have 4 significant draft picks from 2022 entering into the final years of their deals and Groot on his 5th year option. I suspected the Bills would have wanted to take at least 2 of those players off the board at a minimum and they can't do it all later in the off-season. 

 

 

I like the idea of keeping at least 2 out of the 3 of Groot, Benford and Bernard. Longer term on defense Milano and Von will be off the books in the coming years along with mid-level contracts like D.Jones and AJE so cap dollars on defense will be coming off down the line. Ideally I would keep all 3 but there's only so many cap dollars you can extend out even if some cap dollars fall off but keeping 2 out of the 3 is needed in my opinion. 

 

Cook he's a critical player but you also have to draw a line 9-10 million maybe 11 if you really feel he's that important but he's not worth anywhere near 15 million a season. 

I hear what you are saying, but to me, it’s time to retool the D.  Groot is a solid player, but unfortunately, not a real game changer.  I’m happy to have him back, but if the projections are anywhere near right, you can’t afford to be over paying for him and Oliver and 2 other guys that you either have to invest big draft capital in or pay big money just to hide the fact the other 2 have no real impact.  These are the types of contracts that kill a team.  Oliver is a replacement level starter being paid like a top 10 DT.  Groot will be on the same path.  You can’t afford to make the same mistake.  If you could dump Oliver.. ok I guess. 
 

Bernard is solid, but he has the same issue as Milano, he’s too small, too fragile and too slow.  He gets washed out of plays way too easily and needs space to operate, he’s offers next to nothing on the blitz because a stiff breeze can knock him off course.  I like the guy, but he’s not one to invest in.  This is specifically where I think the team needs to retool in a big way.  LB has been a gapping hole for a while… I hate to say it, since Edmunds left and it wasn’t great then.  Milano is a walking med tent, everyone else is mediocre.  The lack of impact from the LB position is a MAJOR reason this team gets its ass beat in the run and TEs have their way with them.  Let everyone play out their contracts, but two new starters are needed here.

 

Benford, though a definite product of the system is really good in the system.  Pay the man. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Ah got it. No idea how they calculate that. I'd be surprised if there are any cap savings from this deal.

 

Likely not much in savings as the primary goal from shakirs new deal is for him to get paid some money today and some guaranteed salary in years 2 and 3.  Often players are on a 5th year option when the extension triggers - those have big salary cap hits that can be reduced by spreading bonuses, but shakirs 4th year was already pretty cheap.  

[Chandler#81]

22 hours ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Want Benford next here.  We really need to shore up the secondary longer-term, and he’s the place to start before we try to sign any secondary support in Free Agency.  Guy cannot be making <$1M a year.

I’m truly concerned with his new concussion issues. He was really ‘out of it’ with the last one and the 1st one bad enough! Cushion cap for the rest of his career imo

Edited 4 hours ago by Chandler#81

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

53 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

sweet coin for a guy with 1600 career yards on a team starving for an alpha WR...

 

Not that sweet. Good market value. This has nothing to do with the search for an alpha either.

[colin]

24 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I hear what you are saying, but to me, it’s time to retool the D.  Groot is a solid player, but unfortunately, not a real game changer.  I’m happy to have him back, but if the projections are anywhere near right, you can’t afford to be over paying for him and Oliver and 2 other guys that you either have to invest big draft capital in or pay big money just to hide the fact the other 2 have no real impact.  These are the types of contracts that kill a team.  Oliver is a replacement level starter being paid like a top 10 DT.  Groot will be on the same path.  You can’t afford to make the same mistake.  If you could dump Oliver.. ok I guess. 
 

Bernard is solid, but he has the same issue as Milano, he’s too small, too fragile and too slow.  He gets washed out of plays way too easily and needs space to operate, he’s offers next to nothing on the blitz because a stiff breeze can knock him off course.  I like the guy, but he’s not one to invest in.  This is specifically where I think the team needs to retool in a big way.  LB has been a gapping hole for a while… I hate to say it, since Edmunds left and it wasn’t great then.  Milano is a walking med tent, everyone else is mediocre.  The lack of impact from the LB position is a MAJOR reason this team gets its ass beat in the run and TEs have their way with them.  Let everyone play out their contracts, but two new starters are needed here.

 

Benford, though a definite product of the system is really good in the system.  Pay the man. 

 

i could see bernard getting a second contract if it's fairly cheap, 2.5-4% of cap area.  I think dorian might improve again this season and become the replacement for either bernard or milano, so we could roll w williams and bernard if milano walks, or if milano gets healthy and back to how great he was in 22, have williams and milano and let bernard walk when his contract is up.

 

they will also drop a round 2-5 pick on lbs every year or two and figure one of them will emerge.

 

last year safety and CB was by far our worst position no the team, and that's saying a lot given our LB injuries and what our WR room looks like.  cb is premium, but safety can be solved for cheap or with lower picks (i was high on bishop, he's been cheeks, he really needs to turn it around), and i think that's how it will be addressed along w LB going forward.

[Mango]

20 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

So Shakir is worth $15 mill a season and Cook isn't LOL.

 

Shakir has 1443 yards and 6 TDs the last 2 season on 148 touches.

Cook has 2834 yards and 24 TDs the last 2 season on 520 touches, has made 2 Pro Bowls and was just voted to the NFL top 101 players by PFF.  

 

People who want to trade Cook instead of extending his contract need to re-think their priorities.  

 

I'm glad our management is finally investing in our drafted  and developed skill players.  It's long overdue.

 

I am looking at their markets. Shakir is a great piece for us and can play just about every WR position. He is getting less than half than Justin Jeffersons total contract value. 

James Cook is looking to be the highest paid RB in the NFL. While he is a quality RB, I think he is in the second tier behind Henry and Barkley. Cook as the highest paid RB is bad value. 

If I am Beane I tell Cook the can work on getting close to that number but he has to spend the offseason becoming a 3 down back. 

24 minutes ago, colin said:

 

i could see bernard getting a second contract if it's fairly cheap, 2.5-4% of cap area.  I think dorian might improve again this season and become the replacement for either bernard or milano, so we could roll w williams and bernard if milano walks, or if milano gets healthy and back to how great he was in 22, have williams and milano and let bernard walk when his contract is up.

 

they will also drop a round 2-5 pick on lbs every year or two and figure one of them will emerge.

 

last year safety and CB was by far our worst position no the team, and that's saying a lot given our LB injuries and what our WR room looks like.  cb is premium, but safety can be solved for cheap or with lower picks (i was high on bishop, he's been cheeks, he really needs to turn it around), and i think that's how it will be addressed along w LB going forward.

 

This is a bad DB draft. This will likely have to be solved in FA. 

[Mr. WEO]

31 minutes ago, Slippery Rubber Mats said:

 

Not that sweet. Good market value. This has nothing to do with the search for an alpha either.

 

He's getting Courtland Sutton money for far less than Sutton production.  Might as well kept Davis for 13 mil a year.

[boater]

That's quite an accomplishment for a fifth rounder, it reflects well upon Shakir.

 

It also bolster Beane's reputation for picks in the later rounds. If he could only be so good with his first rounders.

[JP51]

1 hour ago, DCofNC said:

I hear what you are saying, but to me, it’s time to retool the D.  Groot is a solid player, but unfortunately, not a real game changer.  I’m happy to have him back, but if the projections are anywhere near right, you can’t afford to be over paying for him and Oliver and 2 other guys that you either have to invest big draft capital in or pay big money just to hide the fact the other 2 have no real impact.  These are the types of contracts that kill a team.  Oliver is a replacement level starter being paid like a top 10 DT.  Groot will be on the same path.  You can’t afford to make the same mistake.  If you could dump Oliver.. ok I guess. 
 

Bernard is solid, but he has the same issue as Milano, he’s too small, too fragile and too slow.  He gets washed out of plays way too easily and needs space to operate, he’s offers next to nothing on the blitz because a stiff breeze can knock him off course.  I like the guy, but he’s not one to invest in.  This is specifically where I think the team needs to retool in a big way.  LB has been a gapping hole for a while… I hate to say it, since Edmunds left and it wasn’t great then.  Milano is a walking med tent, everyone else is mediocre.  The lack of impact from the LB position is a MAJOR reason this team gets its ass beat in the run and TEs have their way with them.  Let everyone play out their contracts, but two new starters are needed here.

 

Benford, though a definite product of the system is really good in the system.  Pay the man. 

I do agree here... literally, the only position not in need of an upgrade is Benford's, that doesnt mean the rest are trash, it means that you have no consistent game changers... and lots of players with some very serious flaws...  Epi, Oliver, Jones, Rousseau, Von, all inconsistent with flashes from time to time...  Rousseau being the best of the bunch disappears all too often.... Douglas is fine, but not a lockdown corner... Rapp and Hamiln are not good enough... Maybe Rapp could be a marginal starter with a really good partner.... Williams and Bernard flash at times... Bernard more often than Williams... but they struggle to get off of blocks and if they are not creating turnovers really fail to consistently make big plays... Milano despite the fact I love the guy is simply injured to often and unavailable too much... I suspect that he is in a place of diminishing skill... in the end...  you cant over haul the entire defense, nor pay everyone... but the failure of the drafting is becoming so evident that is is impossible to ignore...  We can go out and sign FA etc...  but this problem will not be resolved until our drafting hits professional level status...  the best we can do at this point is go pay for a game wrecker that will hopefully help the level of play for those that surround him....  and look to upgrade those positions that we can... with respect to our current defense THE ONLY person I am paying bucks to in a big way is Benford... 

Edited 6 hours ago by JP51

[SoCal Deek]

2 hours ago, colin said:

joe marino always goes on about % of cap.

 

this is just shy of 5.5%, if the cap is going to pop as much in the next two years as it has in the last two years, that's going to be closer to 4%.

 

we can do this, extend groot, trade for garrett, and even bring in a vet cb/wr this offseason based on the above.  we have to get cheaper elsewhere, which means rookies come in and play well.

 

von, knox, milano will all have contract reductions or be let go in the next two years.  allen can be extended to shift his cap forward when cap inflation makes the % much smaller.

 

i think shakir would get about that in FA, and you can argue his skill set isn't worth that, but you don't put a uniform on skill sets, you put a uniform on players, and his chemistry w allen, his level of work and focus, and his understanding of the offense on this team are all really really high value.  

 

this being kinda cheap for his production vs cook being eye watering at the same contract shows a great example of relative value in the nfl.  you play with 3 and change wrs on average, and 1 and change rbs on average.  upgrading an individual wr gives you more opportunity for comparative advantage on offense, the d has to pick their poison and potentially change coverage.  you generally defend an RB more or less the same way, and the OL has such a huge impact on the run game that we have high levels of production per snap on all of our RBs.  i think the nfl has gone a little too far w over valuing wrs (especially the top guys) and undervaluing rbs (again, especially the top guys, henry and barkley were obvious cheat code level players who were obtained for not much % of cap) but the direction is right.

 

by the 3rd year of this contract (4 years time from now), after the guarantee is more or less absorbed (im guessing, assuming no restructures) shakir will be like 3 and change % of cap.  he was our best wr in 2023 even with diggs having a huge start to his season, that's a pretty good value proposition. 

Thanks. That’s an interesting way to look at it…and I honestly wish more people did. If you have essentially 50 players then each one represents 2% of the roster. So you’ve gotta think that starters are at 3% and subs are at 1%. Then figure in that you’ve got a few exceptional starters at 4% and a few special teamers and rookies at something lower than 1%. It’s quite a balancing act for sure. While we all take the occasional jab at Beane, it’s a really tricky job for sure. 

[GunnerBill]

38 minutes ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

He's getting Courtland Sutton money for far less than Sutton production.  Might as well kept Davis for 13 mil a year.

 

Hmm. I think two things on this....

 

1. Shakir's 2024 is about the median year for Courtland Sutton. Okay, at this stage that is a career year for Shakir and if it still looks that way halfway through this deal it will have been an overpay, but if he can consistently be in the 800 yard range (I think he can personally) it will look better. 

 

2. Courtland Sutton signed his deal halfway through the 2021 season. It is three and a half years old. The salary cap has rocketed by over 50% in that period. The Broncos and Sutton are in talks currently about extending him again. It won't be for anything close to $15m, he will get way more.

Edited 6 hours ago by GunnerBill