New McD comments about Coleman

[Nihilarian]

Did we all forget that #17 Josh Allen won MVP? That RB James Cook was a top 5 RB in the NFL? That the Buffalo Bills O line graded as one of the best last season?

 

Did I recall reading that the 2024 Buffalo Bills were the highest scoring team in franchise history and one of the top scoring teams in the league?

 

Things should work out okay...have some faith.

[Ray Finkel]

1 minute ago, Pete said:

Moulds could beat a jam, and could separate.  Not to mention, he returned kicks and looked athletic doing so.  

Not in his first couple years and I am not comparing him to Moulds.  I personally didn’t like the pick of Coleman

[The Jokeman]

6 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Did we all forget that #17 Josh Allen won MVP? That RB James Cook was a top 5 RB in the NFL? That the Buffalo Bills O line graded as one of the best last season?

 

Did I recall reading that the 2024 Buffalo Bills were the highest scoring team in franchise history and one of the top scoring teams in the league?

 

Things should work out okay...have some faith.

but but the WR we didn't draft had better stats than Coleman proving our GM is the worst ever. [/sarcasm]

[Back2Buff]

14 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

This is the NFL.com pre-draft report, which is what my expectations also were based on how he was hyped:

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/keon-coleman/3200434f-4c29-5571-54fa-77236b775ae1
 

The former star basketball player has a rebounder’s blend of extension and timing to give jump-ball defenders the blues. He’s big and strong with soft hands, but he can play with a little more aggression in claiming his deep-ball space and getting after it as a run blocker. 

 

 

NFL.com is the last place you want to get draft info.  They literally just looked at his height.

 

I really like the NFL draft with Josh and Hayden on youtube.

[Sweats]

I haven't given up on Coleman yet.

Perhaps the FO and fans put too much expectation on the young man coming in. He is a project in process and i give him a pass on that for his rookie season, however, if next season is not looking like adequate progression, then it's time to re-evaluate him going forward.

[Augie]

12 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

but but the WR we didn't draft had better stats than Coleman proving our GM is the worst ever. [/sarcasm]

 

Congrats on remembering the sarcasm notice! Without that you’d have countless people liking your post.  😊

[oldmanfan]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Everyone thinks they can.

 

The question you are failing to grasp is “do McBeane feel better about Coleman and also Bishop's future today or when they drafted them last year.”

 

THAT’S what is being commented on.

And he’s saying that they need to improve going into their second year, as all rookies do.  So why make such a big damn deal out of it?

[Einstein]

1 hour ago, oldmanfan said:

I don’t know how to make the threads that call for a vote on things, but if I did I’d make one about how many people think a player can or cannot improve after their rookie season.

 

You can give a pig 50 NFL seasons and it may run a bit faster but it’ll never learn how to fly.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

The rest of McDermott's comments were the same, nothing new. 

 

Bishop's injury really set him back, Kincaid needs to get stronger, Bernard tried to do too much, Benford cleared protocol a week after the AFCCG, the business side of Cook will resolve itself.  

 

He's always been about a strong Defensive Line. 

 

I expect nothing interesting from Brandon Beane today. 

 

[2003Contenders]

I agree that the various stats providers are wildly inconsistent about what is considered a "drop".

 

I like to look at team-wide receiving stats, essentially talking apples-to-apples as the receivers were primarily targeted by the same QB. In that way you can somewhat calibrate the receivers' success rate by comparing the % of targets that they managed to haul in compared to other receivers on the same team.

 

Here is what the Bills looked like last season:

 

Player	Targets	Rec	Rec %	Yards	TDs	Yards/Rec	Yards/Target
Ray Davis	19	17	89.5%	189	3	11.1	9.9
Ty Johnson	21	18	85.7%	284	3	15.8	13.5
James Cook	38	32	84.2%	258	2	8.1	6.8
Quintin Morris	6	5	83.3%	36	1	7.2	6.0
Khalil Shakir	100	76	76.0%	821	4	10.8	8.2
Dawson Knox	33	22	66.7%	311	1	14.1	9.4
Mack Hollins	48	31	64.6%	378	5	12.2	7.9
Amari Cooper	32	20	62.5%	297	2	14.9	9.3
Dalton Kincaid	75	44	58.7%	448	2	10.2	6.0
Keon Coleman	56	29	51.8%	556	4	19.2	6.4

 

For the sake of this exercise, I left off Shavers and Davidson, each of whom had one pass thrown their way, which they both caught.

 

Maybe only 4-5 (as cited by various publications) of Coleman's 27 non completions were technically drops, but his 51.8% catch-rate of the targets thrown his way is unacceptable. And before we blame Josh, the scheme, play design(s), etc. it is worth noting that Coleman's success rate was by far the worst on the team. The only other receiver with less than 60% conversion rate was Kincaid, who also had a very disappointing season.

 

Obviously, we can't expect an 80+% rate like the RBs all had, given that many of their targets were much closer to the line of scrimmage than Coleman's (although, Johnson owned a phenomenal 15.8 yards per reception). And it is unfair to compare Coleman to Shakir -- who is known for his high % of caught targets. However, even a modest jump to, say, the 64.6% that Hollins hauled in would have meant a stat line of  36 receptions for 691 yards -- and likely an extra TD or 2. Also, if we factor in that he missed 4 games after the injury, over a full season it would look something like 47 receptions for 902 yards and 7 TDs, reasonable production for a WR2.

 

If we look closer at his pre and post injury stats, we can see that in weeks 1-9 his numbers looked like:

 

22/35 (62.86%) for 417 yards and 3 TDs, 11.9 Yards per target and 18.95 yards per reception.

 

After the injury:

 

7/21 (33.3%) for 139 yards and 1 TD, 6.6 yards per target and 19.9 yards per reception.

 

Obviously a small sample size, I know, but clearly there was a major decline in effectiveness after the injury.

 

The good news is that when he DID catch the ball, he was highly productive with almost 20 yards per reception. So all is not dismal. If he can work on improving his focus/concentration, use his size to his advantage and become a more reliable target in the passing game, perhaps he can evolve into the receiver the front office banked on when they drafted him last year.

[MrEpsYtown]

So they likley made the wrong pick and now they are gonna put it on the kid to fix it. Gotcha McDermott. That's why we pay you the big bucks and you get a lifetime pass for mediocrity. 

[Straight Hucklebuck]

1 minute ago, 2003Contenders said:

I agree that the various stats providers are wildly inconsistent about what is considered a "drop".

 

I like to look at team-wide receiving stats, essentially talking apples-to-apples as the receivers were primarily targeted by the same QB. In that way you can somewhat calibrate the receivers' success rate by comparing the % of targets that they managed to haul in compared to other receivers on the same team.

 

Here is what the Bills looked like last season:

 

Player	Targets	Rec	Rec %	Yards	TDs	Yards/Rec	Yards/Target
Ray Davis	19	17	89.5%	189	3	11.1	9.9
Ty Johnson	21	18	85.7%	284	3	15.8	13.5
James Cook	38	32	84.2%	258	2	8.1	6.8
Quintin Morris	6	5	83.3%	36	1	7.2	6.0
Khalil Shakir	100	76	76.0%	821	4	10.8	8.2
Dawson Knox	33	22	66.7%	311	1	14.1	9.4
Mack Hollins	48	31	64.6%	378	5	12.2	7.9
Amari Cooper	32	20	62.5%	297	2	14.9	9.3
Dalton Kincaid	75	44	58.7%	448	2	10.2	6.0
Keon Coleman	56	29	51.8%	556	4	19.2	6.4

 

For the sake of this exercise, I left off Shavers and Davidson, each of whom had one pass thrown their way, which they both caught.

 

Maybe only 4-5 (as cited by various publications) of Coleman's 27 non completions were technically drops, but his 51.8% catch-rate of the targets thrown his way is unacceptable. And before we blame Josh, the scheme, play design(s), etc. it is worth noting that Coleman's success rate was by far the worst on the team. The only other receiver with less than 60% conversion rate was Kincaid, who also had a very disappointing season.

 

Obviously, we can't expect an 80+% rate like the RBs all had, given that many of their targets were much closer to the line of scrimmage than Coleman's (although, Johnson owned a phenomenal 15.8 yards per reception). And it is unfair to compare Coleman to Shakir -- who is known for his high % of caught targets. However, even a modest jump to, say, the 64.6% that Hollins hauled in would have meant a stat line of  36 receptions for 691 yards -- and likely an extra TD or 2. Also, if we factor in that he missed 4 games after the injury, over a full season it would look something like 47 receptions for 902 yards and 7 TDs, reasonable production for a WR2.

 

If we look closer at his pre and post injury stats, we can see that in weeks 1-9 his numbers looked like:

 

22/35 (62.86%) for 417 yards and 3 TDs, 11.9 Yards per target and 18.95 yards per reception.

 

After the injury:

 

7/21 (33.3%) for 139 yards and 1 TD, 6.6 yards per target and 19.9 yards per reception.

 

Obviously a small sample size, I know, but clearly there was a major decline in effectiveness after the injury.

 

The good news is that when he DID catch the ball, he was highly productive with almost 20 yards per reception. So all is not dismal. If he can work on improving his focus/concentration, use his size to his advantage and become a more reliable target in the passing game, perhaps he can evolve into the receiver the front office banked on when they drafted him last year.

Coleman needs to be in the weight room all offseason and out on the track with a track specialist to improve his explosiveness and long speed. 

 

Next offseason he can work on refining his route running. 

 

But he needs to meet the prerequisite speed component first. 

2 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

So they likley made the wrong pick and now they are gonna put it on the kid to fix it. Gotcha McDermott. That's why we pay you the big bucks and you get a lifetime pass for mediocrity. 

AMEN Eps 

[Just in Atlanta]

16 hours ago, Buddy Hix said:

McD and Beane draft a player who lacks the tools to be a successful NFL player and then McD hangs said rookie out to dry in the media.

 

Accountability.

That's a silly take.  

[uticaclub]

51 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Did we all forget that #17 Josh Allen won MVP? That RB James Cook was a top 5 RB in the NFL? That the Buffalo Bills O line graded as one of the best last season?

 

Did I recall reading that the 2024 Buffalo Bills were the highest scoring team in franchise history and one of the top scoring teams in the league?

 

Things should work out okay...have some faith.

The only thing that can stop a team with a great offense, is a team with a lousy defense 

[Buddy Hix]

6 minutes ago, Just in Atlanta said:

That's a silly take.  

How?

McD and Beane draft a kid who can’t separate, who only won 33% of his contested catches against ACC competition, who only runs a 4.61, and who has limited route running skills, and act like hard work will overcome his deficiencies.

 

Feels like McD and Beane know they reached on a fringe NFL player and are now setting up the excuse.

[SCBills]

57 minutes ago, Nihilarian said:

Did we all forget that #17 Josh Allen won MVP? That RB James Cook was a top 5 RB in the NFL? That the Buffalo Bills O line graded as one of the best last season?

 

Did I recall reading that the 2024 Buffalo Bills were the highest scoring team in franchise history and one of the top scoring teams in the league?

 

Things should work out okay...have some faith.

Every year is a new year. 
 

What we know is that we have the best QB in the NFL and a Top 3 OL returning.

 

Outside of that.. We have a RB that seems to want to force our FO’s hand in terms of paying him or trading him.  We have two TE’s, one who is solid and the other who the FO is calling out in an effort to get 1st RD play from him in Year 3.  And at WR, we have a good slot WR and then ??? 
 

Make no mistake, outside WR was a legitimate issue last year.   We masked it best we could, but teams literally played us differently due to the fact they didn’t respect our outside WR’s.  It not only took away our vertical passing game based on lack of speed.. it also allowed teams to drop a Safety and clog up the area where our slot receivers and tight ends typically work. 

[2003Contenders]

1 minute ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

Coleman needs to be in the weight room all offseason and out on the track with a track specialist to improve his explosiveness and long speed. 

 

Next offseason he can work on refining his route running. 

 

But he needs to meet the prerequisite speed component first. 

Agreed. Also, he and Josh need to find the time to work one-on-one during the off-season. Improve chemistry on timing routes -- and Coleman needs to learn how to best help his QB when a play breaks down.

[The Jokeman]

9 minutes ago, uticaclub said:

The only thing that can stop a team with a great offense, is a team with a lousy defense 

and ironically it's the same team.

[oldmanfan]

33 minutes ago, Einstein said:

 

You can give a pig 50 NFL seasons and it may run a bit faster but it’ll never learn how to fly.

How absurd

[HappyDays]

13 minutes ago, MrEpsYtown said:

So they likley made the wrong pick and now they are gonna put it on the kid to fix it. Gotcha McDermott. That's why we pay you the big bucks and you get a lifetime pass for mediocrity. 

 

I liked Coleman as a prospect not for the player he is, but for the player I thought he could be. Part of my evaluation was that I had heard he had a strong work ethic and a desire to cash in to help his family (which I consider a positive trait). With his physical tools that was a very appealing package for me.

 

This comment from McDermott makes me more nervous than anything about his performance:

 

Quote

"You have to stay urgent, you have to stay on the gas, or this league will eat you up. It takes a certain type of person with a certain drive and determination and fire in their heart, and it's going to be Keon's turn to show that he has that this offseason."

 

I'll criticize McDermott when warranted but I can't criticize him for these comments. Ultimately it IS on Coleman to take the next step. We have this conversation a lot about Josh Allen. Many on here give McDermott and Daboll credit for developing him. I don't. They laid the foundation of culture but Allen himself had to put in the countless hours of work to transform himself as a player.

 

With Coleman I take the same view. Nobody on the Bills can force him to put in the hours. It's a neverending grind and many extremely talented players have failed to reach their potential because they didn't fully commit to it.

 

I hope all of these comments from McDermott and Beane this offseason are because they know Coleman has that fire inside of him and they are trying to kindle it. If they had no hope for him at all they probably wouldn't be so direct.