The Bills Have a Playoff Problem…But It’s Not Josh Allen (detailed breakdown)

[JohnNord]

2 hours ago, Julio Hopkins said:

 

I'm fine with a balanced attack, I was advocating for the change before they added Kincaid.  I don't think they created a balanced offense, they created an offense mainly driven by the run.  The last two seasons it was a ball control offense that couldn't push the ball downfield when needed.  In important moments they weren't able to move the ball well because it was too one dimensional.  

But why do you think they can’t push the ball downfield?  What receivers do they have that can consistently get open?  That’s why they leaned into the running game - it maximizes their talent of their personnel.

 

 

[JohnNord]

2 hours ago, 97bills said:

What holes ? I guess two safeties a corner, help on the DLine , jones is washed and A.J well is who he is. A outside WR would be nice, I do think the offense is in way better shape. But the defense needs a ton of work. 

Rapp and Bishop are the starting safeties in 2025.   
 

We’d all like to see upgrades at WR and DL but almost every player at that position is under contract next season.  It’s not necessity.     
 

That’s why I challenge the notion that there are “holes” on the roster.  IMO this happens when you lose starters like last season

 

The roster is in pretty good shape headed toward the draft and free agency.  

[Julio Hopkins]

32 minutes ago, JohnNord said:

But why do you think they can’t push the ball downfield?  What receivers do they have that can consistently get open?  That’s why they leaned into the running game - it maximizes their talent of their personnel.

 

 

 

That's a personnel decision they made when changing the offense to its current system.  They traded Diggs who was unhappy with what Brady was implementing.  They gave an extension to Knox then drafted Kincaid.  Drafting Cook and Davis.  Drafting Coleman and adding a crop of big bodied blocking receivers.  I don't think they stumbled into the season without a group of receivers who can stretch the field and create separation.  I think it was a conscious decision to build the offense this way.        

Edited Monday at 04:49 PM by Julio Hopkins

[90sBills]

5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

I will sign up right now for the same situation next year. I believe Josh will score every time.

 

So would I. Anyone that says otherwise isn’t being truthful. But that belief and reality hasn’t aligned in those situations the last two years and that in itself is a problem. 

[Man with No Name]

we have two CONSISTENT playoff problems. 

1)  the chiefs

2) defense

[Buffalo_Stampede]

30 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

So would I. Anyone that says otherwise isn’t being truthful. But that belief and reality hasn’t aligned in those situations the last two years and that in itself is a problem. 

And players failed to make plays. Dion Dawkins got blown up by Chris Jones or Allen hits Shakir for a TD in 2023. We all know Kincaid dropped it in 2024. 

I can still criticize Allen on those drives but he would’ve scored a TD I believe if the players made plays for him.

[JohnNord]

1 hour ago, Julio Hopkins said:

 

That's a personnel decision they made when changing the offense to its current system.  They traded Diggs who was unhappy with what Brady was implementing.  They gave an extension to Knox then drafted Kincaid.  Drafting Cook and Davis.  Drafting Coleman and adding a crop of big bodied blocking receivers.  I don't think they stumbled into the season without a group of receivers who can stretch the field and create separation.  I think it was a conscious decision to build the offense this way.        

I think you’re completely off base here.  
 

We have no idea what happened with Diggs but I think he was more upset about the lack of targets than he was about the system.  
 

If the Bills added a crop of “big bodied WR’s” for run blocking why did they sign MVS as a field stretcher last season?  Why did they sign Curtis Samuel who isn’t that type of WR.  Finally, if they only wanted big WR’s why would they trade for Amari Cooper?  He also doesn’t fit that type.  

 

If Buffalo wanted to run the football they wouldn’t have signed Dalton Kincaid.  He is a terrible blocker which is why they can’t run 12 personnel.  It was pretty clear they envisioned him as a “big slot” rather than an inline TE. 

Buffalo receivers struggled to get separation all season long.  This is why they didn’t exhibit the Ken Dorsey passing attack like you advocate for.  They didn’t have the right personnel.   
 

[BillytheKid]

On 2/22/2025 at 8:51 AM, 90sBills said:

And this year they couldn’t even get to midfield with their opportunity. You’d like to be injury free in the playoffs but that’s just not realistic. Every team deals with injuries. 
 

What I rather imagine is for one of the most efficient offenses in the league with an elite qb to close out a playoff game when the opportunity presents itself. I know. It’s too much to ask so let’s keep blaming the defense. 

He shouldn’t have to. 
 

the defense should hold people to 20 points or less sometimes so Josh doesn’t have to bail them out all the time. 
Josh did his job by scoring 29 points whether he had the ball last or not.

 

Defense needs to pull their head out of their ass. Just like you do. 

[JP51]

On 2/22/2025 at 10:17 AM, MikePJ76 said:

they have had critical injuries on defense each of the last 3 playoff losses.

 

Its hard to beat good teams with your top corner out every year plus all the other injuries. 

Sorry Mike not piling on... everyone has injuries... this can no longer be an excuse... year after year after year... or you need to consider your ownself in the make up of the team and their dexterity, size... scheme whatever... so not buying this... they need to win the games... with whomever is available... win or dont... no refs, no injuries, no jinxes, no Josh and Stefon got in a fight, no snow storm made them tired shoveling, no well it was a long end of the season and they were emotionally tired... the more excuses you hang on the less you do to accept you problem and fix it... we have been trying that for 5 years... There is no try... there is do or do not... 

[90sBills]

10 minutes ago, BillytheKid said:

He shouldn’t have to. 
 

the defense should hold people to 20 points or less sometimes so Josh doesn’t have to bail them out all the time. 
Josh did his job by scoring 29 points whether he had the ball last or not.

 

Defense needs to pull their head out of their ass. Just like you do. 

The guys on the other teams are paid to make plays too. Asking your defense to hold teams to 20 in the playoffs when they have elite QBs is not a recipe for success. 
 

‘He shouldn’t have to’? So what you’re saying is have the defense hold opponents to 20, or even less, so the task would be easier for Allen? These are the kind of arguments that diminishes the type of player Allen is. He’s an elite quarterback. That’s what ‘carry a team’ means. Of course he has to come through in those situations when the game is on the line. It would help if his teammates can step up as well.

 

You’re making a case for Allen to be Trent Dilfer by demanding the defense to keep opponents to 20 or less. I don’t think that’s your intent but that’s the argument you laid out imo.

 

There’s also no need for personal attacks just because we have differing opinions. It makes for a more constructive conversation. 

[Julio Hopkins]

1 hour ago, JohnNord said:

I think you’re completely off base here.  
 

We have no idea what happened with Diggs but I think he was more upset about the lack of targets than he was about the system.  
 

If the Bills added a crop of “big bodied WR’s” for run blocking why did they sign MVS as a field stretcher last season?  Why did they sign Curtis Samuel who isn’t that type of WR.  Finally, if they only wanted big WR’s why would they trade for Amari Cooper?  He also doesn’t fit that type.  

 

If Buffalo wanted to run the football they wouldn’t have signed Dalton Kincaid.  He is a terrible blocker which is why they can’t run 12 personnel.  It was pretty clear they envisioned him as a “big slot” rather than an inline TE. 

Buffalo receivers struggled to get separation all season long.  This is why they didn’t exhibit the Ken Dorsey passing attack like you advocate for.  They didn’t have the right personnel.   
 

 

I think the philosophy change started with Ken Dorsey balancing the offense.  After 2023, they ended the season with a high amount of turnovers.  So they overcorrected into the ball control time of possession offense.  

 

Diggs' usage changed after Brady became the OC.  His playing time went way down, they started preaching blocking for the receivers.  See Davis getting a game ball without making a catch in the Jets game.  Diggs being upset about his targets was caused directly by the drop in playing time after Brady became the OC.

 

The big bodied receiver change started with Brady.  MVS wasn't a serious signing.  Amari Cooper is absolutely that type of receiver though, he's about the same size as Davis.  Cooper was only running routes in 50 to 60% of his snaps after trading for him.  Samuel is a good point, I honestly forgot about him.  Maybe they envisioned him as the deep threat last year and he didn't pan out.  That said, they didn't use him.  I shouldn't have added Kincaid, regardless of who the OC was they needed replace Cole Beasley.  He wasn't a good example.  

 

I think the desired personnel changed when Brady became the OC.  I hope I'm wrong, but I'm not advocating for the shot play Ken Dorsey style offense.  I just don't want the offense to hold itself back because McDermott is terrified of his defense playing.    

[Kelly to Allen]

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

I think you’re completely off base here.  
 

We have no idea what happened with Diggs but I think he was more upset about the lack of targets than he was about the system.  
 

If the Bills added a crop of “big bodied WR’s” for run blocking why did they sign MVS as a field stretcher last season?  Why did they sign Curtis Samuel who isn’t that type of WR.  Finally, if they only wanted big WR’s why would they trade for Amari Cooper?  He also doesn’t fit that type.  

 

If Buffalo wanted to run the football they wouldn’t have signed Dalton Kincaid.  He is a terrible blocker which is why they can’t run 12 personnel.  It was pretty clear they envisioned him as a “big slot” rather than an inline TE. 

Buffalo receivers struggled to get separation all season long.  This is why they didn’t exhibit the Ken Dorsey passing attack like you advocate for.  They didn’t have the right personnel.   
 

 

The offense isn't the problem. Hasn't been for 5 years. Regardless of diggs issues or a wr separation issue.... 

 

The issue is the defensive personnel and scheme, especially in the playoffs.

 

In 20 and 24 the bills defense was 16th and 11th in points allowed. It was one of the worst 3rd down defenses in the NFL in 24. The pressure and sack analytics are not that good either. 

 

In the playoffs the defense has been historically atrocious outside the ravens in 20 and Denver vs a rookie qb

[L Ron Burgundy]

On 2/23/2025 at 10:45 PM, GunnerBill said:

 

You can't blame them, in terms of being the main reason for the defeat, no. But when you have an elite QB and two years in a row that happens you have to consider as part of your fix why that is. Simply shrugging and saying "defense" is misguided. The Bills have to find a way to win the high leverage moments vs Kansas City in the playoffs. That is mainly, but not exclusively, on defense. They have made those plays in their regular season wins (particularly the last 3) but they just haven't been able to in the playoffs. 

Or when the offense does score late and there are 13 seconds left...no, I get your point and we should always look to improve.   But fault?  It's the defenses fault.   Except the Cinci loss.

Edited yesterday at 12:57 PM by L Ron Burgundy

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Or when the offense does score late and there are 13 seconds left...no, I get your point and we should always look to improve.   But fault?  It's the defenses fault.   Except the Cinci loss.

 

Sure, and if in either of the two cases the offense had scored and then KC had immediately responded with seconds remaining a la 13 seconds, we'd be having a different conversation. But the fact remains in the last 3 playoff games the Bills O had the ball with the clock in their favour to go and score a game winning touchdown. They are 1/3. You have to fix that as well as improve the defensive performance against KC in the post season. Because whether they are low scoring or high scoring history of the past few years tells us Bills - KC always goes down to the end. So you need whichever side of the ball it comes down to in those spots to be capable of winning the high leverage moments. And while I definitely think it is right to be more concerned about the D than the O in those situations, there are legit concerns on both sides. 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

Or when the offense does score late and there are 13 seconds left...no, I get your point and we should always look to improve.   But fault?  It's the defenses fault.   Except the Cinci loss.

And I would argue that even in the Cinci playoff loss the defense was more at fault because given the weather and the fact that it was a home playoff game they came out of the locker room and resembled a tub of butter being cut by the Bengal's hot knife of an offense.  

 

Remember how the Bengal's had back to back long TD drives to go up 14 - 0 before the Bills O had even started their 2nd possession.  Then after the Bills O clawed their way back to make it a one score game, the D immediately allowed Cinci to go on long, time consuming, momentum sucking drives to go back up by two scores.

 

 

 

 

[CincyBillsFan]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Sure, and if in either of the two cases the offense had scored and then KC had immediately responded with seconds remaining a la 13 seconds, we'd be having a different conversation. But the fact remains in the last 3 playoff games the Bills O had the ball with the clock in their favour to go and score a game winning touchdown. They are 1/3. You have to fix that as well as improve the defensive performance against KC in the post season. Because whether they are low scoring or high scoring history of the past few years tells us Bills - KC always goes down to the end. So you need whichever side of the ball it comes down to in those spots to be capable of winning the high leverage moments. And while I definitely think it is right to be more concerned about the D than the O in those situations, there are legit concerns on both sides. 

But in 2 of the drives you describe the Bills missed an "easy" 44 yard FG to tie and their TE dropped a very catchable ball that would have kept a potential game winning drive alive.  So sure, you can try to squeeze a bit more out of your offense, though I don't see any need for Allen to play better as IMO that would be an unrealistic expectation, the real problem remains the defense.

 

If I had to assign percents I would say the D has been 90% of the problem, the ST's have been 5% of the problem  and the O has been the remaining 5% of the problem.

 

Perfection is never going to happen in the NFL. Saying there are problems on both ides of the ball is just a distraction IMO.  If Allen and the O play exactly the same over the next 5 seasons as they have over the last 5 seasons but the D improves significantly the Bills will go to 3 Super Bowl games with 2 Super Bowl wins.  But if you make the O even better and don't improve the D then MAYBE the Bills make it to a SB in the next 5 seasons only to be blown out.  

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, CincyBillsFan said:

But in 2 of the drives you describe the Bills missed an "easy" 44 yard FG to tie and their TE dropped a very catchable ball that would have kept a potential game winning drive alive.  So sure, you can try to squeeze a bit more out of your offense, though I don't see any need for Allen to play better as IMO that would be an unrealistic expectation, the real problem remains the defense.

 

If I had to assign percents I would say the D has been 90% of the problem, the ST's have been 5% of the problem  and the O has been the remaining 5% of the problem.

 

Perfection is never going to happen in the NFL. Saying there are problems on both ides of the ball is just a distraction IMO.  If Allen and the O play exactly the same over the next 5 seasons as they have over the last 5 seasons but the D improves significantly the Bills will go to 3 Super Bowl games with 2 Super Bowl wins.  But if you make the O even better and don't improve the D then MAYBE the Bills make it to a SB in the next 5 seasons only to be blown out.  

 

I'm not asking Josh to play better to be clear. I've said consistently this is not a Josh Allen problem. But the offense, in those big moments does have to execute. While I agree the D is more to "blame" and is where more of the fix needs to be if we are getting the ball back with a chance to win the game and the clock in our favour and despite having #17 our O is not able to execute.... that is a problem that needs fixing. To ignore that would be folly IMO. Because let's say the D does improve significantly and it gets 10 points on average better vs KC's offense in the playoffs. I don't think that means the Bills win these games by two scores. I think they would still be one score games that would come down to which team executes at the end. That is just what these games are. It might be 25-22 instead of 32-29 but they are still going to be games that go to the wire. It is just how the two teams play each other. So maybe it comes down to the D at the end and our significantly improved defense makes a stand and stops the Chiefs on 4th down. But maybe it still comes down to the offense having the ball last and needing to execute the game winning drive. 

 

The D is the bigger fix. It is the priority to fix. No question. But they cannot ignore that two years running despite an all world QB the offense has failed to execute in those high leverage moments. If they do, that is a mistake.