The Bills Have a Playoff Problem…But It’s Not Josh Allen (detailed breakdown)

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just think the Bills roster with Tua not Allen would be in the playoff mix. One game in or one game out. 

 

As for what is keeping the Bills short... it's simple. It's the Kansas City Chiefs.

It’s the Chiefs offense vs our defense, specifically.

 

There’s a reason Allen has such gaudy numbers in the OP and it ain’t because Spags is taking his lunch money every year.

[JerseyBills]

🤔

 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

Comes down to really a handful of plays. All about execution. 

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It’s the Chiefs offense vs our defense, specifically.

 

There’s a reason Allen has such gaudy numbers in the OP and it ain’t because Spags is taking his lunch money every year.

 

Oh for sure. Though in the big moments, Spags wins too. But unquestionably the bigger issue is we cannot find a way in the playoffs to win on defense. Which is so bizarre because in the regular season we have. The Eagles basically ran Leslie Frazier's 2021 regular season defensive gameplan in the Superbowl. 

[DrBob806]

5 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

they have had critical injuries on defense each of the last 3 playoff losses.

 

Its hard to beat good teams with your top corner out every year plus all the other injuries. 

Yes, but we also have an under thrown TD pass (last season) and only needed a FG this season. 

 

JA isn't blameless, he's made a few mistakes.

[finn]

17 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

As for what is keeping the Bills short... it's simple. It's the Kansas City Chiefs.

Isolating the problem still more, do you agree it's not the KC defense, which, while excellent and well coached, is not too much for Allen to handle, and it IS the KC offense? If so, why did Mahomes and Reid have trouble this year with virtually every defense they faced--except the Bills defense? 

 

Others have laid out the case in more detail, but it seems McDermott is always surprised by KC in the playoffs. In the game last month, he and Babich had no answer for Mahomes' scrambling, were caught flat footed by Bedford's injury, and hadn't prepared the team to play man when they needed to.  Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Spagnola WAS ready for the Bills offense, shutting down the tush push and preparing exotic blitzes for just the right time. Even so, Allen overcame them (until Kincaid dropped the ball a la Diggs 2023). If McDermott had done his part, the Bills would likely have won. 

 

But he never does do his part, does he? Not when it comes to KC. I'm starting to wonder if it's psychological. It's like he reverts to junior assistant or little brother mode when he faces Reid, his onetime mentor. 

 

Put it this way: If, just before the Bills meet KC in the playoffs next year, McDermott got the flu and couldn't make the game and Brady or Babich took over, wouldn't you breathe a sigh of relief?  I know I would.

[CincyBillsFan]

9 minutes ago, DrBob806 said:

Yes, but we also have an under thrown TD pass (last season) and only needed a FG this season. 

 

JA isn't blameless, he's made a few mistakes.

No one is saying Allen is blameless.  What is being said and proven beyond a shadow of doubt is that Allen is the LEAST to blame.

 

As for whether or not Allen had made mistakes - of course he has since NO ONE is perfect.  Again, though how many of Allen's "mistakes" have cost us a playoff game.

 

 

[DrBob806]

Just now, CincyBillsFan said:

No one is saying Allen is blameless.  What is being said and proven beyond a shadow of doubt is that Allen is the LEAST to blame.

 

As for whether or not Allen had made mistakes - of course he has since NO ONE is perfect.  Again, though how many of Allen's "mistakes" have cost us a playoff game.

 

 

He had Gabe Davis wide open in the end zone vs the Chiefs, missed him. Yeah, it's just one play, but it needed to be made.

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, finn said:

Isolating the problem still more, do you agree it's not the KC defense, which, while excellent and well coached, is not too much for Allen to handle, and it IS the KC offense? If so, why did Mahomes and Reid have trouble this year with virtually every defense they faced--except the Bills defense? 

 

Others have laid out the case in more detail, but it seems McDermott is always surprised by KC in the playoffs. In the game last month, he and Babich had no answer for Mahomes' scrambling, were caught flat footed by Bedford's injury, and hadn't prepared the team to play man when they needed to.  Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Spagnola WAS ready for the Bills offense, shutting down the tush push and preparing exotic blitzes for just the right time. Even so, Allen overcame them (until Kincaid dropped the ball a la Diggs 2023). If McDermott had done his part, the Bills would likely have won. 

 

But he never does do his part, does he? Not when it comes to KC. I'm starting to wonder if it's psychological. It's like he reverts to junior assistant or little brother mode when he faces Reid, his onetime mentor. 

 

Put it this way: If, just before the Bills meet KC in the playoffs next year, McDermott got the flu and couldn't make the game and Brady or Babich took over, wouldn't you breathe a sigh of relief?  I know I would.

 

It is primarily the Chiefs O vs Our D, yes. But their D generally beats our O in high leverage situations in the playoffs too. 2021 excluded (when that was purely coaching failure).

[Mr. WEO]

[Buffalo Ballin]

The Bills have a playoff problem and it's Beane and McDermott.

[Jrb1979]

1 hour ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

Comes down to really a handful of plays. All about execution. 

We've been saying that since 13 seconds. It's less about the X's and O's and more about the Jimmies and Joe's. 

1 hour ago, JerseyBills said:

🤔

 

Pay that man

[finn]

26 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

It is primarily the Chiefs O vs Our D, yes. But their D generally beats our O in high leverage situations in the playoffs too. 2021 excluded (when that was purely coaching failure).

It might just appear that their D beats our O in high leverage situations because our D folds like a tent and our O has to bail them out. 

 

Put it this way: The Bills offense would utterly destroy the Bills defense, while the KC offense would be crushed by the KC defense. Who can spot the weak unit here? 

[GunnerBill]

17 minutes ago, finn said:

It might just appear that their D beats our O in high leverage situations because our D folds like a tent and our O has to bail them our. 

 

Put it this way: The Bills offense would utterly destroy the Bills defense, while the KC offense would be crushed by the KC defense. Who can spot the weak unit here? 

 

It appears as such because it is as such. 

 

And yes I broadly agree with the second para. "Crush" might be slight hyperbole but get the better of, yes for sure.

[JK Fan]

6 hours ago, 90sBills said:

Offense had the ball with 3 min left and a chance to win. 

THIS!!!!

[folz]

 

Top 10 Legit Reasons for the Bills not yet reaching a Super Bowl:

1. The Kansas City Chiefs

2. The Kansas City Chiefs

3. The Kansas City Chiefs

4. The Kansas City Chiefs

5. Luck (just one play this way or that in any of the last three KC matches)

6. Injuries and unforeseen circumstances (injuries, snow storms, Damar Hamlin incident, etc.)

7. NFL Officiating

8. Lack of talent at a key position (most often CB vs. KC)

9. Execution (penalties and lack of the big play in crunch time, particularly on the defense)

10. Coaching

 

Yeah, Josh ain't the problem (the whole world knows that). But I don't think, overall (excluding the 13 seconds game), it's really coaching either. With football, the blame either seems to go to the QB or the coach (or both). But answers aren't always as simple or black-and-white as replace the QB or fire the coach, imo.

 

 

1 hour ago, finn said:

Isolating the problem still more, do you agree it's not the KC defense, which, while excellent and well coached, is not too much for Allen to handle, and it IS the KC offense? If so, why did Mahomes and Reid have trouble this year with virtually every defense they faced--except the Bills defense? 

 

Others have laid out the case in more detail, but it seems McDermott is always surprised by KC in the playoffs. In the game last month, he and Babich had no answer for Mahomes' scrambling, were caught flat footed by Bedford's injury, and hadn't prepared the team to play man when they needed to.  Meanwhile, on the other side of the ball, Spagnola WAS ready for the Bills offense, shutting down the tush push and preparing exotic blitzes for just the right time. Even so, Allen overcame them (until Kincaid dropped the ball a la Diggs 2023). If McDermott had done his part, the Bills would likely have won. 

 

But he never does do his part, does he? Not when it comes to KC. I'm starting to wonder if it's psychological. It's like he reverts to junior assistant or little brother mode when he faces Reid, his onetime mentor. 

 

Put it this way: If, just before the Bills meet KC in the playoffs next year, McDermott got the flu and couldn't make the game and Brady or Babich took over, wouldn't you breathe a sigh of relief?  I know I would.

 

You make it sound as if junior assistant/little brother McDermott falls apart against his daddy/big brother Reid. And yet, at the end of regulation in the last three playoff matchups against K.C., the Chiefs had a combined 6-point lead. Only six points across three games at the end of regulation. You do realize how close that is, correct? We are talking one play in each game that could have swung things the other way. In two of the games, it came down to a field goal attempt. If Butker missed his and Bass made his, we'd be 2-2 vs. KC in the playoffs. It's not like we're getting totally out-classed and out-coached every time. And let's face it, the referees heavily influenced the other two games (both AFC Championship games).

 

 

Edited 11 hours ago by folz

[SinceThe70s]

2 hours ago, L Ron Burgundy said:

 

It did compromise their chances but through good/creative coaching they were pretty close to overcoming nearly historic injury levels.  While we, with a couple injuries every year, cannot.  I'd say it's because McD is too conservative while other high quality defensive coaches will take major aggressive risks.

 

Fair enough. I'm not a McD lover/apologist but I think the haters fail to acknowledge how close we were to beating the Chiefs when we fielded a defense that depended on AJ Klein to fill in. Even then, it came down to the offense not getting in the end zone.

[ganesh]

1 hour ago, CincyBillsFan said:

No one is saying Allen is blameless.  What is being said and proven beyond a shadow of doubt is that Allen is the LEAST to blame.

 

As for whether or not Allen had made mistakes - of course he has since NO ONE is perfect.  Again, though how many of Allen's "mistakes" have cost us a playoff game.

 

 

When you have the #1 QB in the NFL and the ball is in your hands and you have to drive down to win the AFCC, you have to take care of business.  I agree that Allen is the least of the problem, but with the guy who has the ball in his hand on all offensive plays needs to have "that drive" that is historic. 

[finn]

21 minutes ago, folz said:

 

Top 10 Legit Reasons for the Bills not yet reaching a Super Bowl:

1. The Kansas City Chiefs

2. The Kansas City Chiefs

3. The Kansas City Chiefs

4. The Kansas City Chiefs

5. Luck (just one play this way or that in any of the last three KC matches)

6. Injuries and unforeseen circumstances (injuries, snow storms, Damar Hamlin incident, etc.)

7. NFL Officiating

8. Lack of talent at a key position (most often CB vs. KC)

9. Execution (penalties and lack of the big play in crunch time, particularly on the defense)

10. Coaching

 

Yeah, Josh ain't the problem (the whole world knows that). But I don't think, overall (excluding the 13 seconds game), it's really coaching either. With football, the blame either seems to go to the QB or the coach (or both). But answers aren't always as simple or black-and-white as replace the QB or fire the coach, imo.

 

 

 

You make it sound as if junior assistant/little brother McDermott falls apart against his daddy/big brother Reid. And yet, at the end of regulation in the last three playoff matchups against K.C., the Chiefs had a combined 6-point lead. Only six points across three games at the end of regulation. You do realize how close that is, correct? We are talking one play in each game that could have swung things the other way. In two of the games, it came down to a field goal attempt. If Butker missed his and Bass made his, we'd be 2-2 vs. KC in the playoffs. It's not like we're getting totally out-classed and out-coached every time. And let's face it, the referees heavily influenced the other two games (both AFC Championship games).

 

 

I should do my homework and provide evidence to support my point, but I'm too busy, tired, and lazy, so I'll just say that my impression is that Allen is keeping us in these playoff games against KC despite McDermott's failure to slow down the KC offense. And Allen is going against a tough, well-coached defense, while Mahomes is going against a sieve. Allen is better than Mahomes, so he keeps up and the score is close, as you say, but it's not close because McDermott is doing his part. He's not. 

 

(I agree about the refs, by the way. Even someone as talented as Allen can't overcome a tough defense, his own coach, AND the refs.)

[Since1981]

8 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

 

Its hard to beat good teams with your top corner

Our secondary has been crap for 3+ in the playoffs. But I think Philly proved Edge value. That said, Ravens are Bullies.