The Bills Have a Playoff Problem…But It’s Not Josh Allen (detailed breakdown)

[Big Blitz]

14 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

2 more seasons....?

 

So if we lose again in the playoffs and the defense is terrible again, we're just going to keep hoping it changes. Especially if they upgraded the talent and it's now the same issues??

 

Allen will then be 31. 

 

Everyone should be pissed off watching what the eagles did. 

 

He’s opening the new stadium that is a 100 percent lock.  
 

That’s why I said 2 more seasons. 

Don’t waste your time stressing over McDs job.  
 

It’s safe thru the 2026 season.  Minimum.   

[billsfan714]

17 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

2 more seasons....?

 

So if we lose again in the playoffs and the defense is terrible again, we're just going to keep hoping it changes. Especially if they upgraded the talent and it's now the same issues??

 

Allen will then be 31. 

 

Everyone should be pissed off watching what the eagles did. 

Amen, hope is not a plan.

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Meh. We just played some bad teams.

 

I don't dispute how important Josh is to this team. Take him away and we have zero elite players. But I don't think we are top 5 pick team with someone like Tua. Now give us Will Levis.... we might be picking 1st overall.

Well, the league voted Josh Allen MVP for dragging this team to 13 wins.

 

Our defense was 25th in defensive time per drive, 23rd in plays per drive, 26th in yards per drive, and 18th in points per drive. They were lucky to have a super efficient offense 8th in yards per drive and 2nd in points being run by the one man show.

 

What those stats tell me is that if the offense wasn’t humming at elite efficiency, our defense would’ve been exposed worse than they were, even by some bad teams.

 

Even if the Bills offense dropped to 16th across the board with average QB play in Tua (which they would be luck to hit because Mack Hollins ain’t Tyreek or Waddle), I think the 2024 Bills defense may have been painted as one of the worst in the league.

Edited 11 hours ago by FireChans

[GunnerBill]

Just now, FireChans said:

Well, the league voted Josh Allen MVP for dragging this team to 13 wins.

 

Our defense was 25th in defensive time per drive, 23rd in plays per drive, 26th in yards per drive, and 18th in points per drive. They were lucky to have a super efficient offense 8th in yards per drive and 2nd in points being run by the one man show.

 

What those stats tell me is that if the offense wasn’t humming at elite efficiency, our defense would’ve been exposed worse than they were, even by some bad teams.

 

Even if the Bills offense dropped to 16th across the board with average QB play in Tua (which they would be luck to his because Mack Hollins ain’t Tyreek or Waddle), I think the 2024 Bills defense may have been painted as one of the worst in the league.

 

The 2024 D WAS one of the worst in the league. But they'd have still won some games with good QB play. 

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I'm trying to imagine what an offense would look like if it struggled as badly as our defense has in the playoffs. 

 

5 straight losses without scoring more than 14 points? 

 

The 13 second game would be like losing a game 13-10 with your defense scoring the only TD.

 

 

[HappyDays]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

I will give you 8 wins

 

Right and that's missing the playoffs if one of those losses is to Miami. Miami who had to a play joke QBs for a quarter of their season would have gotten in over us. That's how important Allen was this year.

 

On the Colts game - it's hard to quantify this stuff sometimes. The one TD drive we had from backed up against our own goalline was all because of Allen. Punting from that spot on the field very well may have lost us that game. And there are other games too where the final score is lopsided but the entire complexion of the game changes early on because of plays he makes.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

Right and that's missing the playoffs if one of those losses is to Miami. Miami who had to a play joke QBs for a quarter of their season would have gotten in over us. That's how important Allen was this year.

 

On the Colts game - it's hard to quantify this stuff sometimes. The one TD drive we had from backed up against our own goalline was all because of Allen. Punting from that spot on the field very well may have lost us that game. And there are other games too where the final score is lopsided but the entire complexion of the game changes early on because of plays he makes.

 

Yes. Josh is a freak there is no doubting that. But Tua can play. I think this discussion is guilty of slightly disrespecting him.

[SinceThe70s]

15 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The comp is that if Goff had 4 turnovers every year vs the Commanders and lost 4 times in a row, I wouldn’t blame injuries for the loss. They could have different injuries every year and I still wouldn’t blame them.

 

McD’s defense playing some of the worst ball of the year every year vs KC is the comp to Goff throwing 4 picks. Every year, we are going to have at least 1 starter dinged up in the postseason, anywhere. That doesn’t mean we need to be historically awful. A lot of teams aren’t. The Bills are.

 

You're arguing a point I never made. Have a nice day

[FireChans]

Just now, SinceThe70s said:

 

You're arguing a point I never made. Have a nice day

See you next year when our 3rd string 3t DT tweaks his pinky and we lose to KC putting up their best offensive performance of the year again. If only he was healthy!

[HappyDays]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Yes. Josh is a freak there is no doubting that. But Tua can play. I think this discussion is guilty of slightly disrespecting him.

 

He would be an average QB (and that's without accounting for the likelihood of him missing games) on a slightly below average roster with zero stars. I don't think it's disrespectful to say we aren't a playoff team with him. Competing for a top 5 draft pick? Probably not if he actually plays every game. 

[SinceThe70s]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

See you next year when our 3rd string 3t DT tweaks his pinky and we lose to KC putting up their best offensive performance of the year again. If only he was healthy!

 

Stupid reply, once again you're arguing a point I never made. Good for you. Have a nice day.

[DapperCam]

3 hours ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

The injury excuse is getting old and stale........every team has injuries come playoff time, but it only seems to be a Bills problem.

 

Like, come on......

I'll give the Bills management the 2023 season playoffs, because I don't think any coaching can overcome the ridiculous number of injuries we had on defense that postseason. The other years were a normal amount of injuries, they have no excuses there.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

He would be an average QB (and that's without accounting for the likelihood of him missing games) on a slightly below average roster with zero stars. I don't think it's disrespectful to say we aren't a playoff team with him. Competing for a top 5 draft pick? Probably not if he actually plays every game. 

 

If it is the difference betwen 8 wins and 9, sure. But that would be the floor if he plays every game. 

Just now, DapperCam said:

I'll give the Bills management the 2023 season playoffs, because I don't think any coaching can overcome the ridiculous number of injuries we had on defense that postseason. The other years were a normal amount of injuries, they have no excuses there.

 

Agree. 2023 I think injuries was legit thing because it was cluster injuries at one spot and they were down to like 5th and 6th options. 

 

Every other year? No. The injuries were no worse than most teams at that stage on a one off game basis.

 

The only thing I would say in the bigger picture is to suffer two ACLs to their defensive stars in consecutive years and then season enders again to Milano and White in 2023... that is really bad luck. Every team has injuries. But to lose starts to serious injuries with that frequency is really rare. 

 

 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, SinceThe70s said:

 

Stupid reply, once again you're arguing a point I never made. Good for you. Have a nice day.

I mean, you argued injuries were the Lions’ problem too, but injuries aren’t the reason Goff turned it over 4 times.
 

The Lions defense made the Vikings look silly in the last game of the year for the 1 seed. Despite all their injuries.

 

The Lions season ended because Goff was a disaster. The Bills season ended because their defense was a disaster.

[Brianmoorman4jesus]

Every single issue is the same as it has been since 2019. This defense sucks. And it’s 100% scheme. Been saying it for years. A few people have been there to understand but most of the talk is about WRs. The offense has been an all time great for almost 6 years. Nothing about the offense needs to even be spoken about. It’s a coaching and it’s all defense. Fix it or we’ll never win. It’s truly that simple. How it took this long to figure out is beyond me

[billsfan714]

41 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

While I agree the 2024 roster was weaker... we also won 6 games against teams who scored 14 or fewer. I think we'd have won 9 or 10 games and it would have been plenty good enough against a weak division. 

 

Yea the difference is they nailed those picks. They played them because they were good. They were not good because they played.

So its on Beane then.   I'm in the camp I put it on both of them.

[PromoTheRobot]

This analysis ignores a pretty huge fact. 4 of 5 losses came against the same team that eventually went to the Super Bowl and won it 3X.

 

That same team that gets the preponderance of refs calls. So you're up against a very good team that also gets bailed out by the officials a lot. 

 

Everyone thinks they found the "DaVinci Code" that unlocks the secret of winning. In reality games are won and lost on a handful of plays. A dropped pass, a bad penalty, a bad penalty that wasn't even a penalty, a missed kick. One play can lose you any game.

 

The secret of winning is 1) execute, 2) don't beat yourself, 3) hope the refs don't screw you.

 

Edited 11 hours ago by PromoTheRobot

[MJS]

The Bills have a playoff problem: The Chiefs.

 

End of thread.

[SinceThe70s]

10 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I mean, you argued injuries were the Lions’ problem too, but injuries aren’t the reason Goff turned it over 4 times.
 

The Lions defense made the Vikings look silly in the last game of the year for the 1 seed. Despite all their injuries.

 

The Lions season ended because Goff was a disaster. The Bills season ended because their defense was a disaster.

 

So in your world the Lions giving up 45 to the Commanders had nothing to do with their injuries on defense? Um, ok.

 

For the record I never argued that Goff's turnovers had anything to do with the injuries. Nor did I argue that the Bills season ended because their defense was a disaster - I agree with that whole heartedly. 

 

Not sure why you are hell bent on putting words in my mouth that never came out. 

[Mr. WEO]

Can't be the coaches because the bad ones get fired every year, right?