The Bills Have a Playoff Problem…But It’s Not Josh Allen (detailed breakdown)

[The 9 Isles]

 

Quote

In the last five seasons, only two teams have exceeded 55 regular season wins: the Chiefs (66) and the Bills (61).

Regular season wins are fine…if they lead to better seeding and playoff success.

 

Despite the Chiefs and Bills both leading the NFL in total wins over the last five seasons and each making the playoffs all five seasons, the Bills lag behind in playoff success.

 

In the playoffs, the Chiefs have:

4 Conference Championships

2 Super Bowls

Meanwhile, the Bills have:

0 Conference Championships

0 Super Bowls

 

It is not so simple to suggest the Bills are great in the regular season and bad in the playoffs.

In fact, in the playoffs over the last five years, the Bills have 12 games played (second most in the NFL) and 7 wins (second most in the NFL).

Beyond that, they actually have a winning record in the NFL playoffs: 12 games, 7 wins, 5 losses.

There are only 6 other teams with a winning record in the playoffs the last five years, and ALL of them have at least one Conference Championship victory and Super Bowl appearance to show for it.

 

Chiefs

Rams

Eagles

Buccaneers

Bengals

49ers

 

But not the Bills.

 

Josh Allen's Playoff Performance

You cannot blame Josh Allen’s overall performance as the reason they cannot seem to accomplish their goals of making it to and then winning the Super Bowl.

 

If you look at the 24 quarterbacks with at least 50 playoff pass attempts since 2020, Josh Allen is the #1 most efficient quarterback in the playoffs.

#1 in EPA per play (+0.15)

#1 in success rate (50%)

 

We know how badly turnovers affect games, particularly in the postseason.

That hasn’t been an issue for Allen.

He has the #1 best TD:INT ratio in the postseason over the last five years.

He has thrown 25 playoff touchdowns to only 4 interceptions, a TD/INT rate of 6.3 that ranks #1.

 

In their five playoff losses, the Bills have averaged 24.6 points per game, which not only is above the scoring average in the playoffs for all teams (24.5) but is substantially above the scoring average for teams that lose playoff games (18.8).

In fact, the Bills average of 24.6 points per game scored in playoff losses over the last five years is #1 most of any NFL team with at least three playoff losses.

Opponents scored an average of 33.2 points in Buffalo’s five playoff losses over that span.

 

It’s hard to pin those defeats on Allen.

In his five losses, he’s averaged +0.14 EPA/play and a 51.2% success rate.

Where do those stats rank among quarterbacks in playoff losses over the last five years?

 

#1 in EPA/play

#1 in success rate

In those losses, he has thrown 9 touchdowns to just 2 interceptions, and his 4.5 TD/INT ratio is #2 in the NFL among playoff losing QBs.

 

Allen has also added 3 rushing TDs (tied for most in the NFL) in his playoff losses.

His 2.4 total touchdowns per game rank #2 best among playoff losing quarterbacks, and his 0.4 interceptions per game rank #3 best.

 

Avoiding sacks is also critical, and Allen’s 4.3% sack rate ranks #5 best.

As noted earlier, the two teams with the most regular season wins and most playoff wins over the last five years are the Chiefs and Bills.

 

Let’s compare Josh Allen’s performance in his playoff losses (5) to Patrick Mahomes in his losses (3) over the last five years.

And keep in mind, there have been 18 quarterbacks with at least two playoff losses in our sample.

 

Josh Allen (of 18 QBs):

#1 EPA/play (+0.17)

#2 EPA/dropback (+0.13)

 

Patrick Mahomes (of 18 QBs):

#15 EPA/play (-0.15)

#18 EPA/dropback (-0.22)

 

Even in playoff losses, Allen has delivered more efficient performances than any other quarterback.

In playoff losses, Allen has been the best quarterback.

 

Patrick Mahomes has been the worst.

 

In his five playoff losses, Allen has a 9:2 TD:INT ratio.

In his three playoff losses, Mahomes has a 6:6 TD:INT ratio.

 

Josh Allen (of 18 QBs):

#3 in TD/INT rate (4.5)

#5 in sack rate (4.3%)

#2 in Sack+INT rate (4.8%)

 

Patrick Mahomes (of 18 QBs):

#10 in TD/INT rate (1.0)

#14 in sack rate (9.8%)

#15 in Sack+INT rate (13.2%)

 

Allen has also recorded 293 rushing yards and 3 rushing TDs in those games.

His 59 rushing yards per game is over double Mahomes’ 26 rushing yards per game, and Mahomes does not have a rushing touchdown.

 

Allen has given the Buffalo Bills tremendous performances in the postseason, even in their losses.

The best statistical quarterback in the postseason over the last five years across all games, wins or losses.

 

And yet, the only statistic that matters for the Bills is 0.

That is the number of Super Bowl wins in the last five years.

 

Even worse, that is the number of AFC Championships in their five playoff trips.

Allen would be the first to point the finger at himself for things he could have done better in each playoff loss, and he hasn’t been perfect.

 

But at the end of the day, given these statistics and this analysis, it’s hard to look at the Bills and think they can “get over the hump” in the playoffs if only Allen would play better.

 

With this team, their playoff futility is not on the quarterback.

So, if it’s not on the quarterback, who then bears the blame for the Bills failing mightily when it matters most and not bringing home any AFC Championships or Super Bowls these last five seasons despite recording the #2 most regular season wins and #2 most playoff wins?

And the even bigger question: what are they changing to get over that hump in 2025?

 

 

[Sweats]

D wins championships and i don't see how anyone can even argue this anymore.........McD and Beane need to get their house in order and start producing a championship D if we ever want to see a SB.

[MikePJ76]

Just now, Sweats said:

D wins championships and i don't see how anyone can even argue this anymore.........McD and Beane need to get their house in order and start producing a championship D if we ever want to see a SB.

they have had critical injuries on defense each of the last 3 playoff losses.

 

Its hard to beat good teams with your top corner out every year plus all the other injuries. 

[Sweats]

1 minute ago, MikePJ76 said:

they have had critical injuries on defense each of the last 3 playoff losses.

 

Its hard to beat good teams with your top corner out every year plus all the other injuries. 

 

 

 

 

The injury excuse is getting old and stale........every team has injuries come playoff time, but it only seems to be a Bills problem.

 

Like, come on......

[MikePJ76]

Just now, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

The injury excuse is getting old and stale........every team has injuries come playoff time, but it only seems to be a Bills problem.

 

Like, come on......

its a fact.  Missing benford and rapp was critical in this years loss and last years loss the defense was decimated.

 

its not an excuse in any way.  Trying to win the most difficult game of the year with backup players is really hard to do.

[Sweats]

Just now, MikePJ76 said:

its a fact.  Missing benford and rapp was critical in this years loss and last years loss the defense was decimated.

 

its not an excuse in any way.  Trying to win the most difficult game of the year with backup players is really hard to do.

 

 

 

 

Then perhaps our D depth is the issue cause if a couple of players go down then the whole D ***** the bed?!?........i'm not buying it.

[90sBills]

5 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

its a fact.  Missing benford and rapp was critical in this years loss and last years loss the defense was decimated.

 

its not an excuse in any way.  Trying to win the most difficult game of the year with backup players is really hard to do.

Offense had the ball with 3 min left and a chance to win. 

[MikePJ76]

2 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Offense had the ball with 3 min left and a chance to win. 

yes they did and last year they missed a game tying kick with a few minutes to go.

 

now imagine if the defense was injury free and not having to try and protect players and just run their scheme.  They probably would have been running clock in those moments or looking to score to take a 2 score lead and seal the game.

 

 

[Kelly to Allen]

16 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

The injury excuse is getting old and stale........every team has injuries come playoff time, but it only seems to be a Bills problem.

 

Like, come on......

 

This regime had their guys. Elam and Bishop filling in were very high picks. 

 

Everyone else was healthy. 

[TFBillsfan]

Unfortunately, the D needs a significant overhaul. What is their strength, who is a difference maker?

 

The DL has shown it can’t consistently rush the passer or stop the run. Far too often they get completely stonewalled. The secondary is a major liability, who typically plays 10 yards off WR’s and a S who lined up 15 yards deep. Then add in linebackers who have struggled to stay healthy.  This contributed to why the Bills were atrocious on getting off the field on 3rd down this past season. There was way too much pressure for the O to be dang near perfect to mask the D’s deficiencies. 
 

The team drastically needs upgrades at DT, DE and S. And most likely another CB. Beane and the staff need to hit on instant contributors this draft. They have plenty of draft capital and should be able to address a few needs thru FA. 

[Brand J]

The Josh Allen Bills are 7-1 in the playoffs against all teams not named Kansas City. Make decisions on upcoming FAs (within the team and outside) based on how they play against the Chiefs. Rousseau? It’s a pass for me at anything more than $18M/yr. Benford is always hurt, so it’s hard to tell. Bernard is fine, just needs more help on the DL. Shakir always balls out, but the $20M/yr tag is a bit of sticker shock. Probably worth it though.

[NoSaint]

17 minutes ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

 

The injury excuse is getting old and stale........every team has injuries come playoff time, but it only seems to be a Bills problem.

 

Like, come on......

 

yea I don’t see many acknowledging the rashee rice injury when talking about our defense not being 100%

[MikePJ76]

4 minutes ago, NoSaint said:

 

yea I don’t see many acknowledging the rashee rice injury when talking about our defense not being 100%

that is because they had a number of guys who were good enough to fill in and play at wr.

 

more importantly, the injury to rice didn't happen the week before, it happened months ago and he didn't play basically the whole year.

 

Apples and Oranges.  Had rice gone out vs houston and then worthy also and they didn't have hopkins then you could make this statement.  

 

Rice had nothing to do with the game played a few weeks ago.  

[Don Otreply]

32 minutes ago, Sweats said:

D wins championships and i don't see how anyone can even argue this anymore.........McD and Beane need to get their house in order and start producing a championship D if we ever want to see a SB.

Doing so will require a change in scheme on defense, and coaching thought process, but yes, it’s not on Josh Allen, and the offense, it is and always has been the defensive scheme/plan/ coaching/ execution, 

[ganesh]

The Bills do not have the necessary pass rush to win in the playoffs.  their Playoff losses have been close only because of Josh Allen. 

 

Having said that,  Josh also had the ball in his hands to drive down for the game winning TDs. the last two years and he did not complete the job.  I am sure he himself will be regretting that he could not complete the job on the last drives in the last two games.

[BuffaloBillyG]

17 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

that is because they had a number of guys who were good enough to fill in and play at wr.

 

more importantly, the injury to rice didn't happen the week before, it happened months ago and he didn't play basically the whole year.

 

Apples and Oranges.  Had rice gone out vs houston and then worthy also and they didn't have hopkins then you could make this statement.  

 

Rice had nothing to do with the game played a few weeks ago.  

It's the philosophy of the two teams that made the difference.

 

At the beginning of the year at WR we all debated is Buffalo or KC had the worse WR group. By the end of the you KC had 3 former 1,000 yard WRs, to combine with perhaps the best TE in history, and a RB room of Pacheco/Hunt.

 

We had injuries to the secondary? Next man up. Status quo. A rookie that misses TC and a bust in Elam? Oh well, we roll with what we have.

 

KC? An injury to their best WR and top RB? Let's bring in Kareem Hunt. Let's bring back JuJu. Ok. He can't do it. Let's increase Worthy's role gradually so he's a difference maker come playoffs. Hm. We need more....let's move for DHop. Oh look, we treaded water enough with these moves so Hollywood Brown is back. Keep taking bites of the apple until we get something that works. 

 

Just like the draft last year. Chiefs: We need a WR.  This is the guy we want that we feel makes us better. Let's be aggressive and go get him. Bills: We need a WR. We will just take what's left so we can pick up an extra day 3 pick.

 

Passive vs aggressive styles

[Kelly to Allen]

1 hour ago, MikePJ76 said:

its a fact.  Missing benford and rapp was critical in this years loss and last years loss the defense was decimated.

 

its not an excuse in any way.  Trying to win the most difficult game of the year with backup players is really hard to do.

 

Kc had all rookies in the secondary in the 22 AFC championship and held burrow, chase and Higgins to 20 pts ...

 

Numerous other examples 

[sullim4]

1 hour ago, MikePJ76 said:

they have had critical injuries on defense each of the last 3 playoff losses.

 

Its hard to beat good teams with your top corner out every year plus all the other injuries. 

 

A lot of this has to do with the type of players that the coaching staff and Beane plug into the defense.  They tend to have speed at the expense of size and durability.

 

I get it with the injuries but imo some of this, in particular the linebackers, is due to the particular players that fit the scheme.  Injuries to undersized players are now a problem and thus I think it's perfectly legitimate to question whether the scheme needs to be re-evaluated.

[Mister Defense]

Wow, extremely enlightening.

 

So many of us likely thought that the reason the Bills have not taken the next step in the playoffs, and especially intelligent analysts like Shannon Sharpe, was that Josh Allen was stinking it up in the playoffs.

 

Now, thanks to your detailed breakdown, we all now that is likely not that case.

 

Thank you!

 

 

[tigerthelion]

18 minutes ago, Kelly to Allen said:

 

Kc had all rookies in the secondary in the 22 AFC championship and held burrow, chase and Higgins to 20 pts ...

 

Numerous other examples 

Cincinnati  had half of their starting offensive line out and still whipped Buffalo in the playoffs. 

 

Baltimore was missing their best receiver and didn't use that excuse after losing to Buffalo.

 

 Using injuries as an excuse is a losing mentality.   Bringing up injuries as a reason for losing year after year is an excuse, whether some admit it or not.  Either get the job done or figure a way to improve, period.