To the people clamoring for Tee Higgins or other big name WRs

[Kirby Jackson]

1 minute ago, Maine-iac said:

This is going to sound crazy but hear me out.  I think the new found simplicity and reliability of throwing short mixed with the turnover at outside WR has taken some of Allen's willingness to throw it outside away.  I honestly think Coleman and Cooper or Hollins (if they are resigned) are totally capable (probably more capable) of making teams pay ala Gabe Davis.  To some degree I think Allen probably has a little trauma from his only options being to throw it up to a spot and Davis or even Diggs not being on the same page and bad things happening.  If we run back Cooper, Coleman, and Hollins it might be a good thing just because of familiarity.

I hear you but they still threw it down the field the 10th most. In terms of throwing it outside the numbers, if you can’t do it effectively teams will just jam the middle. You just become too easy to defend. I would bring back Mack and try to bring back Cooper. If they did that, I’d want a pure speed guy in the draft (maybe Bond or Tez Johnson). If they don’t bring back Cooper, I’d take a shot on Hollywood or Slayton. They still need to draft a guy IMO.

[aristocrat]

2 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

It is not going to happen. The biggest complaint has been the lack of speed at the position and yet a huge percentage of this forum want to sign a dude who ran a 4.59 at the combine? This is the guy who is going to break open the safeties down field ? Tee Higgins is a good player, but benefits greatly from his QB and the WR who plays on the other side of him. He is nothing more than a Gabe Davis clone with better hands.

 

My opinion on the WR Beane would actually go for? The more I think about it, I would actually put money down on this happening. Brandin Cooks seems like the type of vet WR the Bills would take in the mold of Emmanuel Sanders, John Brown, Mack Hollins. Cook’s production has dipped the past couple years because of an injury and the horrid situation in Dallas, but this is good as Beane will get a nice discount. He’s 31, but still has wheels, he’s a savvy vet who’s produced on every team he’s been. I think he’ll enjoy a nice career renaissance w/ an elite QB like Josh. It’s not necessarily the signing I want, but it’s the one that seems the most logical based on Beane’s track record.

 

I feel like people have written off Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman wayyy too soon. One was dealing with an injury on a brand new team. The other was a damn rookie who still put up 556 & 4 TDs on a run heavy team. Both showed nice flashes, they just need to learn the system and gel with Josh more. People are entitled to their opinion about Coleman ever panning out, but I don’t think Cooper just all of the sudden forgot how to play ball. 
 

The last point I want to make for the people who want to throw big money at the position. You DO realize the Bills averaged over 30 points a game and got an MVP season out of Josh Allen with the current stable of WRs, right? You DO realize the Chiefs dropped 32 points on us in the AFCC and 27 the year before in the divisional, right? So what does that tell you as far as what the REAL problem is? It’s the defense. If the Bills are going to drop serious money & resources into a position this year, it damn well better be on the other side of the ball. Or else it’s going to be the same story year after year after year. 

Nothing more than gabe Davis with better hands. So he’s better than gabe Davis with great hands? I don’t think that means what you think it means. 
we need another weapon for josh. Josh loves throwing downfield so Kincaid really ain’t it. 

[FireChans]

2 hours ago, ChronicAndKnuckles said:

It is not going to happen. The biggest complaint has been the lack of speed at the position and yet a huge percentage of this forum want to sign a dude who ran a 4.59 at the combine? This is the guy who is going to break open the safeties down field ? Tee Higgins is a good player, but benefits greatly from his QB and the WR who plays on the other side of him. He is nothing more than a Gabe Davis clone with better hands.

 

My opinion on the WR Beane would actually go for? The more I think about it, I would actually put money down on this happening. Brandin Cooks seems like the type of vet WR the Bills would take in the mold of Emmanuel Sanders, John Brown, Mack Hollins. Cook’s production has dipped the past couple years because of an injury and the horrid situation in Dallas, but this is good as Beane will get a nice discount. He’s 31, but still has wheels, he’s a savvy vet who’s produced on every team he’s been. I think he’ll enjoy a nice career renaissance w/ an elite QB like Josh. It’s not necessarily the signing I want, but it’s the one that seems the most logical based on Beane’s track record.

 

I feel like people have written off Amari Cooper and Keon Coleman wayyy too soon. One was dealing with an injury on a brand new team. The other was a damn rookie who still put up 556 & 4 TDs on a run heavy team. Both showed nice flashes, they just need to learn the system and gel with Josh more. People are entitled to their opinion about Coleman ever panning out, but I don’t think Cooper just all of the sudden forgot how to play ball. 
 

The last point I want to make for the people who want to throw big money at the position. You DO realize the Bills averaged over 30 points a game and got an MVP season out of Josh Allen with the current stable of WRs, right? You DO realize the Chiefs dropped 32 points on us in the AFCC and 27 the year before in the divisional, right? So what does that tell you as far as what the REAL problem is? It’s the defense. If the Bills are going to drop serious money & resources into a position this year, it damn well better be on the other side of the ball. Or else it’s going to be the same story year after year after year. 

There’s something funny about arguing that we can’t upgrade the offense AND the defense next year.

 

Like we have to choose one?

 

Or is it because we have so little faith in the Bills brass to successfully improve both? They have 10 draft picks and more cap space than last year, but we can’t expect improvement because we need 10 picks on DL alone?

[Kirby Jackson]

9 minutes ago, FireChans said:

There’s something funny about arguing that we can’t upgrade the offense AND the defense next year.

 

Like we have to choose one?

 

Or is it because we have so little faith in the Bills brass to successfully improve both? They have 10 draft picks and more cap space than last year, but we can’t expect improvement because we need 10 picks on DL alone?

This is the right way to look at it. The offense doesn’t have many needs. It does have a massive need though. They can’t just avoid the boundary because the defense is bad. They need to upgrade both. They need more bodies on defense but, to your point, they have plenty of assets to do that. 

[L Ron Burgundy]

Run analytics on free agen receivers.  Target guys who can catch and separate with good 40 times.   Sign.  

[kitchen sink]

My guesstimate is that due to the growing use of analytics, the value of speed wide receivers might continue to decline (it might also be a reason for increased interest in high contested catch rate receivers).

 

The reason for this is when you look at the analytics, it is much better to force a team to make as many first downs as possible to score. 

 

As such, teams might play more and more two high shell and other over the top defensive alignments. 

 

The data I have seen shows that the probability of getting a first down from 1st and 10 is 66%. 

 

Based on this, every additional first down required to score reduces the probability of the next first down by 33%, as shown in the table below.

 

.

 

This is also the math behind what makes chunk plays (20 plus yards), which reduce the number of first downs required to score, so big.

 

Edited yesterday at 05:29 PM by kitchen sink

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Then McDermott needs to make sure he and Brandon are on the same page and he gets a WR or two than can be more of a vertical threat. And not just signing tall guys that run a 4.6.

I think Coleman has a role, but we are still lacking that outside threat 

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Here's the thing. The FANS want a speed WR that can take the top off the defense. I'm not so sure Beane and the Bills place the same value on  speed that many assume they do.

 

Now I know, a few years back at the End of season PC, Beane famously said something along the lines of "I'd love to have a guy with Tyreek speed. If you know where these players are...show me." Since then they have had plenty of chances to add speed and declined. Most famously just last year when the opportunity to snag the fastest player in combine history was staring them in the face when they were on the clock...and decided to pass on the opportunity to acquire him and instead swooped up a guy whose 40 is measured by sundial at the top of round 2.

 

They bring usually one "fast" WR in every off-season. MVS last year (doubled down with the Claypool dart throw), Hardy the previous year. At low contracts and then really don't use them deep. Heck even when we had MVS on the roster and on the field, we would see Coleman or Hollins on the deep route more than MVS. Sure they take a swing at a guy...but low value/investment in that role.

 

He's drafted Kincaid and Coleman in back to back years at the top of his draft...hardly blazers. Brought in guys like Sherfield and Hollins. Heck even going back to his Carolina roots and moved a pick for Kelvin Benjamin. Beane typically is going to invest in the larger/slower at the position rather than smaller/faster. His actions have proven that.

 

Not only that but a speed WR, a pure speed guy, goes to waste in this offense for 3 reasons. First off, teams tend to play the shell defense against us a lot. Eliminates the deep ball. Second, we play a good amount of games in cold/Poor weather....which negates speed. And third...you can have Usain Bolt out there breezing past defenses all day long running 10 yards free....and Josh has difficulty hitting a deep ball... especially in stride. 

 

A WR in the Bills offense needs to be able to catch in traffic, separate with the ball in his hands and pick up YAC. That's why a guy like Shakir or someone like Cole Beasley can thrive here. 

 

Excellent post and 💯. Higgins is better than Gabe but he'd be way to expensive.  I wouldn't be opposed to Cooper staying but only under 20M.  The player I'd love would be trying to coax Seattle to trade DK to us. His age, size and speed would fit perfectly. But you're right, Beane doesn't value speed as much as some teams. He's content with slower wrs who can make contested plays. Josh is not as accurate on deep throws as we would like. A speed wr would be nice but maybe it's not mandatory?  What is mandatory is landing Garrett or Crosby. 

[billykay]

2 hours ago, Sweats said:

I'm really hoping we keep Cooper around.......i want to see how he is with one full year under his belt in our system.

Just wondering why if Cooper is so good, teams choose not to keep him around.

[JoshAllin]

I don't see how a big name receiver is going to help this team after Allen showed why he was MVP of the league. He'd be fine with someone who has good hands and can catch his fast balls . Biggest needs is stopping Ravens and chiefs run game

[FireChans]

Just now, JoshAllin said:

I don't see how a big name receiver is going to help this team after Allen showed why he was MVP of the league. He'd be fine with someone who has good hands and can catch his fast balls . Biggest needs is stopping Ravens and chiefs run game

I haven’t thought of the Ravens and their run game in a month.

why is this still a concern?

 

Chiefs couldn’t really run on us either.

[Maine-iac]

Just now, FireChans said:

I haven’t thought of the Ravens and their run game in a month.

why is this still a concern?

 

Chiefs couldn’t really run on us either.

Granted the Chiefs only handed the ball off 3 or 4 times.  We might have worried about stopping the run if our pass defense had given the Chiefs a reason to stop throwing.

[FireChans]

Just now, Maine-iac said:

Granted the Chiefs only handed the ball off 3 or 4 times.  We might have worried about stopping the run if our pass defense had given the Chiefs a reason to stop throwing.

Chiefs RBs actually rushed 22 times for 76 yards. 3.4 YPA.

 

You are right though, it’s irrelevant when Mahomes is getting nearly 10 YPA. Again.

 

I swear, I think Brandon Beane has operatives on TBD to spread the “we need more DL help to stop the run,” narrative pre-offseason.

[Maine-iac]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Chiefs RBs actually rushed 22 times for 76 yards. 3.4 YPA.

 

You are right though, it’s irrelevant when Mahomes is getting nearly 10 YPA. Again.

 

I swear, I think Brandon Beane has operatives on TBD to spread the “we need more DL help to stop the run,” narrative pre-offseason.

You're absolutely right ................ my old brain.  It was the SB where they literally didn't run at all.

Edited yesterday at 06:27 PM by Maine-iac

[Kirby Jackson]

24 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Excellent post and 💯. Higgins is better than Gabe but he'd be way to expensive.  I wouldn't be opposed to Cooper staying but only under 20M.  The player I'd love would be trying to coax Seattle to trade DK to us. His age, size and speed would fit perfectly. But you're right, Beane doesn't value speed as much as some teams. He's content with slower wrs who can make contested plays. Josh is not as accurate on deep throws as we would like. A speed wr would be nice but maybe it's not mandatory?  What is mandatory is landing Garrett or Crosby. 

I guess that this is the crux of the disagreement on this board. Everyone knows that it would help. Some of us just disagree as to how much. I 100% believe speed on the outside is mandatory and laid out why earlier in this thread. 

[JoshAllin]

13 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I haven’t thought of the Ravens and their run game in a month.

why is this still a concern?

 

Chiefs couldn’t really run on us either.

Henry rushed for 200 yards week 4 and he looked pretty effective during the playoffs, exposing the crap run D, they tried to let Lamar win it for them instead. Chiefs was more on Mahomes running all over them and the game crushing 10 yrd TD run. The Eagles interior didn't give him a chance to do any of that which was triggering when watching

[Maine-iac]

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I guess that this is the crux of the disagreement on this board. Everyone knows that it would help. Some of us just disagree as to how much. I 100% believe speed on the outside is mandatory and laid out why earlier in this thread. 

My question is in what world are we going to line a "speed" wr up outside with an opportunity to just out run the defender?  Not because it wouldn't be nice or to our advantage but because we love to run the ball and block with our outside WR's so we rarely line up anyone out there with that kind of speed.  If it's 3rd and 3 in most places on the field we're probably going to have Hollins and some other big body out there.  They actually started mixing Samuels in once in a while and getting something out of him.  Maybe that's a start.

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, Maine-iac said:

My question is in what world are we going to line a "speed" wr up outside with an opportunity to just out run the defender?  Not because it wouldn't be nice or to our advantage but because we love to run the ball and block with our outside WR's so we rarely line up anyone out there with that kind of speed.  If it's 3rd and 3 in most places on the field we're probably going to have Hollins and some other big body out there.  They actually started mixing Samuels in once in a while and getting something out of him.  Maybe that's a start.

Samuel isn’t that guy. He’s a converted RB. As an OSU fan I’ve seen lots of him. He has a role but it’s more as a move piece than a guy to threaten down the field.

 

To answer your question, I guess that I’m suggesting less of the 6th OL and blocking WRs. They turned the ball over at a staggeringly low pace last year. That won’t happen again. They had the fewest giveaways in the league at 8. They were 1 takeaway short of having the most in the league. Their turnover differential led the league by 8!! They were +24. The next closest team was +16. We will not always have these short fields and the ability to end drives with a kick. They are going to have to get some plays down the field to open up the underneath and to keep the scoring up. If their plan is to be as efficient as they were this year, despite a historic turnover differential, they’re in for a rude awakening. They have to evolve now before, what has been an issue, predictably bites you. They can’t plan to run the entire offense within 10 yards of the LOS. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

45 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I think Coleman has a role, but we are still lacking that outside threat 

I think Coleman HAD a role. His play after the injury and the fact they seemed publicly disappointed with his performance (mention it specifically at the year end PC) may have played himself out of one for next year. 

 

If he has a definitive role next year it is going to have to be earned in TC IMO.

36 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Excellent post and 💯. Higgins is better than Gabe but he'd be way to expensive.  I wouldn't be opposed to Cooper staying but only under 20M.  The player I'd love would be trying to coax Seattle to trade DK to us. His age, size and speed would fit perfectly. But you're right, Beane doesn't value speed as much as some teams. He's content with slower wrs who can make contested plays. Josh is not as accurate on deep throws as we would like. A speed wr would be nice but maybe it's not mandatory?  What is mandatory is landing Garrett or Crosby. 

I would like DK. Unfortunately, as much as we would like it to happen, he's not really on the trade block. 

 

In fact when they asked HC MacDonald about the process for hiring an OC this year he said that a focal point of each interview was what their plan is for DK moving forward. He also said they will "work through" if Tyler Lockett will be back. 

 

Now, I get the "lying season, never say never, it could still happen" theory that comes this time of year, but to me it sounds more like Metcalf is staying and they will roll with him and JSN this year. Guy is a physical freak, though and I still can't believe the Bills didn't nab him in the draft.

[Maine-iac]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Samuel isn’t that guy. He’s a converted RB. As an OSU fan I’ve seen lots of him. He has a role but it’s more as a move piece than a guy to threaten down the field.

 

To answer your question, I guess that I’m suggesting less of the 6th OL and blocking WRs. They turned the ball over at a staggeringly low pace last year. That won’t happen again. They had the fewest giveaways in the league at 8. They were 1 takeaway short of having the most in the league. Their turnover differential led the league by 8!! They were +24. The next closest team was +16. We will not always have these short fields and the ability to end drives with a kick. They are going to have to get some plays down the field to open up the underneath and to keep the scoring up. If their plan is to be as efficient as they were this year, despite a historic turnover differential, they’re in for a rude awakening. They have to evolve now before, what has been an issue, predictably bites you. They can’t plan to run the entire offense within 10 yards of the LOS. 

I agree with all of this.  Unfortunately my answer would be less about speed and more about being a technician.  Diggs wasn't a burner but he was a technician.  We could use that again.  Size and contested catches seems to be the in lieu of type answer.  Cooper seemed like he should have been that answer.  Maybe we resign him and he gets it done.  It would be nice to have a WR who stacks a DB and walks away from him in a way that scares defenses.  Also it would be nice to have a player with that kind of speed who actually plays and isn't just sitting on the bench week in and week out.