Revisiting 2024 draft

[Logic]

4 minutes ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

The crazy thing for me is the way they handled Bishop based on what at least I saw of him as an actual on-the-field prospect. It seemed like the square peg in the round hole kind of thing. While Bishop has the physical traits of a centerfield-type of FS that can move all over, he just does not shine in that role, and his College analytics really backed that up. If you're looking for more of a traditional SS-type...in the box... that's where Bishop really played well in College. So every time I saw him dropping deep and someone running by him I felt like...well...could have seen that coming.

 

That's not to say he won't improve and grow into the role. He was just a rookie. He seems smart and he does have a lot of God-given ability. But I feel like based on what they asked him to do in 2024... He was set up for failure from the get-go... 

Absolutely.

As a matter of fact, it's giving me PTSD flashbacks to Kaiir Elam.

Drafting a supremely physically talented defensive back, asking him to do things that his college tape showed were not his strengths, and trusting that you can just coach him into it. Sometimes, of course, that works out. But sometimes, as we saw with Elam, it does not.

Here's hoping Bishop makes big strides in year two.

1 minute ago, Mat68 said:

Where is Cooper playing in Buffalo? Safety? 

I remember Bills media talking heads and draft analysts discussing this very question, and the thought being that DeJean would be a safety in Buffalo's defensive scheme.

The fact that he played very capably at nickel corner -- a position which requires quick processing, tackling ability, physicality, and coverage ability -- suggests that there's a reasonable chance at success as a safety.

I can't honestly say I know for sure, though.

Edited Tuesday at 07:28 PM by Logic

[Mat68]

Hardy probably the disappointment.  Coleman, Bishop and Davis will see expanded roles in 25.  Carter will be given the shot at either back up role. Starter beside Oliver is not something I expect.  Both lineman seem to be NFL players with Grable a surprise for me.  Carter and Coleman both got hurt when they were playing their best and both struggled to regain that consistency.  Overall it was a work pail class.  Bishop and Coleman both determine its success.   

7 minutes ago, Logic said:

Absolutely.

As a matter of fact, it's giving me PTSD flashbacks to Kaiir Elam.

Drafting a supremely physically talented defensive back, asking him to do things that his college tape showed were not his strengths, and trusting that you can just coach him into it. Sometimes, of course, that works out. But sometimes, as we saw with Elam, it does not.

Here's hoping Bishop makes big strides in year two.

I remember Bills media talking heads and draft analysts discussing this very question, and the thought being that DeJean would be a safety in Buffalo's defensive scheme.

The fact that he played very capably at nickel corner -- a position which requires quick processing, tackling ability, physicality, and coverage ability -- suggests that there's a reasonable chance at success as a safety.

I can't honestly say I know for sure, though.

He is playing great as a slot.  He wasn't replacing Johnson.  Moving him to centerfield Desean could have had the same season as Bishop did.  

[2003Contenders]

Some random thoughts:

 

1. When I see a team make multiple trades to move down (especially in the 1st round), it usually signals to me that they are uncertain about that 1st pick. That is, the Bills can claim all they want to about how much they liked Coleman, but their moving down the way they did (especially with so many other WRs coming off the board in that area of the draft) signals to me that they were not THAT excited about him.

 

2. I believe that Bishop had McD's name written all over it. For the past few years the team has been rumored to have coveted big safeties. Clearly the front office was very excited about taking Bishop at the end of the 2nd round -- as war room footage showed their refusal to trade down again when given the opportunity to do so for fear of losing out on that selection.

 

3. I wonder how much the concerns about the team's overall depth (given key looses in free agency as well as the Diggs trade) led Beane to go down the path he did in the draft. I honestly believe that he perhaps underrated the remaining talent we had on the team -- and seemed dead-set on making moves to acquire additional draft picks in hopes of building depth rather than making moves to acquire better talent. He honestly seemed more interested in regaining that 3rd round pick he had given up to acquire Douglas than he was in making a pick in the 1st round. While I am not sure that being able to trade up into the top 10 for any of the 3 high-rated WRs was feasible, I have to believe that the ammunition was there to make a modest move up a few spots to acquire BTJ, who undoubtedly would have made an impact for this team -- especially in the palyoffs. Instead, Beane decided to trade down TWICE in the first round, clearly more obsessed with acquiring additional draft picks than using picks to move up in the draft for better odds at blue chip talent.

 

4. Recall that the 1st half of the 1st round of the draft were literally all offensive players (Laiatu Latu was the first defensive player taken at #15). Now, it certainly could mean that the 2024 draft was indeed top-heavy on the offensive side of the ball -- but it also likely means that the 2nd half of the round was deep with talent on the defensive side of the ball. When the Bills were on the clock at #28, only 8 defensive players total had been drafted. Maybe the team would have been better off taking their next top-rated defensive player there than moving down 5 spots (with 2 trades) to acquire the 8th WR in the draft. To make matters worse, after the trades note that 4 of the 5 players that were drafted between 28 and 33 were also offensive players, 3 of them receivers. Beane can claim all he wants to that they drafted BPA, but acquiring the 8th WR (even in a draft purportedly deep at WR) when you could have had your choice at Safety or the 2nd CB or the 3rd DT in the draft just seems like a poor allotment of resources.

 

5. As others have pointed out, it really is too early to know for sure how this draft class will turn out. While the early returns are not great, time will tell.

[Logic]

7 minutes ago, Mat68 said:

Moving him to centerfield Desean could have had the same season as Bishop did.  

There is absolutely no way you could know that. Total projection.

[Mat68]

4 minutes ago, Logic said:

There is absolutely no way you could know that. Total projection.

Hence could.  He wouldn't play the position he is currently excelling at.  This comment is why he was drafted in rd 2.  After filling the outside corner need with Mitchell they drafted Cooper fill the other corner, or slot, or safety.  After the switch to slot Cooper and the secondary took off.  

[MikePJ76]

4 hours ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

I just want to point this Carter pick out because it's at the core of the frustration I have with BBB... And don't get me wrong... I do think he's a good GM... But it's picks like that Dwayne Carter one that drive me insane...

 

I was a little blindsided by the Coleman pick last year. I thought the Bills needed that down the field, over-the-top, split the zone kind of buster on the outside, and I did not see Coleman as that guy. But I did understand the need for some of Colemans skill set and my thought was, with all these picks we're going to double up on WR anyway...

 

Well... Imagine my surprise when we get to #95 overall and both Troy Franklin (4.41) and Dez Walker (4.36) are still available. Now before anyone jumps up and says they both did nothing as rookies understand, I'm looking for a 15-20% of the snaps on Offense field stretching WR... That is NOT too much to as for as a rookie. Not to mention they would now have a year in this Offense with Josh under their belt going into 2025, so maybe it's 25-30% of snaps this year. Both are very talented. They have nice upside and SPEED...

 

Instead we Draft the under-sided 3-tech because he's a team Captain and great in the community... OK... Mind you this off season has been wall to wall talk about upgrading our defensive line and you will not hear Carters name mentioned...Not once... In fact I was listening to a Mock Draft pod yesterday, and the guy running it is a Bills fan, and he says "The Bills only have one DT under contract after the 2025 season." I'm like... THAT is how impactful Dwayne Carter was as a rookie...lol

 

I should also mention the lack of that down the field threat led to the MVS signing which busted pretty quickly...

 

Maybe Carter comes out in 2025 and proves me wrong...sets the world on fire... We'll see... But that pick is driving me nuts... It has since last April... I really wanted us to double dip at WR there... Anyway... 

whoever you were listening to you should stop listening to.  The Bills have 3 DT's on the roster for 2025 at the moment not one.  

7 hours ago, Pete said:

Round 2 • Pick 1 (33) • WR Keon Coleman

Round 2 • Pick 28 (60) • SAF Cole Bishop

Round 3 • Pick 32 (95) • DT DeWayne Carter

Round 4 • Pick 28 (128) • RB Ray Davis

Round 5 • Pick 6 (141) • C Sedrick Van Pran-Granger

Round 5 • Pick 25 (160) • LB Edefuan Ulofoshio

Round 5 • Pick 33 (168) • EDGE Javon Solomon

Round 6 • Pick 28 (204) • OT Tylan Grable

Round 6 • Pick 43 (219) • CB Daequan Hardy

Round 7 • Pick 1 (221) • OT Travis Clayton

how do you feel about this draft now?

 

2-Keon- I hated the pick at the time.  Keon played decent pre-Poyer hit.  But was almost useless after.  Keon was first player selected Day 2.  So Beane has all night to contemplate that pick and turn down draft picks.

 

2-Cole - an ok selection.  Hopefully he can make big progress this season.

 

3- DeWayne big fat F.  2% pass rush win rate is horrendous.  Horrible pick Beane.

 

4-Ray Davis- finally a solid draft selection.  Ray will be a productive Bill for years.

 

5- Ed- hardly saw the field- TBD

 

5–Solomon looks like a good situational pass rusher.  Beanes second decent pick.

 

6-Tylan - best pick of the draft.  Tylan sounds like a great find!

 

6-Hardy- undersized, good practice squad depth, return ability.

 

7- Clayton- potential.  
 

so one lukewarm hit in the first 3 rounds.

 

Keon was awful in playoffs, and Cole has potential.

 

Ray, Solomon, and Tylan look like Bills going forward.

 

All those draft picks, and your 6th round draft pick looks to be best pick.  Way too many whiffs, again.

 

I rate this draft a D-

 

 

Good Grief.

[Dat]

Keon just had twice as many yards as a former Bills 1st round pick (24th) did in each of his first two years and the word “bust” was used. In year three Moulds went off for 1368 yards and multiple 1000 yd seasons. Way too soon to write these draft picks off. Not saying they will be hits but they might.

 

It’s easy to play captain hindsight shoulda woulda and a lot is just plain luck. Go back and look at 10 years of 1-2 round picks of all teams and see how many were hits vs misses. Heck the bills prior regime had Shaw Lawson, Reggie Ragland, none, Ronald Darby, 2 for Watkins, Cyrus “naked in a field” Kuandjio, EJ Manuel, Robert Woods.

[KOKBILLS]

7 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

whoever you were listening to you should stop listening to.  The Bills have 3 DT's on the roster for 2025 at the moment not one.  

Good Grief.

I'm well aware... The point is Carter made zero impact... 

[Billl]

22 minutes ago, 2003Contenders said:

He honestly seemed more interested in regaining that 3rd round pick he had given up to acquire Douglas than he was in making a pick in the 1st round.

I thought the exact same thing.  It felt like he cared more about a third round pick that he didn’t have than the first round pick he did have.  He started out with a first and second but no third and wound up with two seconds, a third, and no first.

[Straight Hucklebuck]

I have no idea what people see in Bishop so far other than good combine numbers. 

[MikePJ76]

Just now, KOKBILLS said:

I'm well aware... The point is Carter made zero impact... 

You said the point was there is only 1 DT on the roster.  There are 3.  Carter had a serious wrist injury, had surgery and returned and tried to play through it.  

 

 

[Cray51]

7 hours ago, Pete said:

Washington had an excellent draft that provided immediate results.  If Beane lays another egg this draft, I doubt he’s here in 3 years

Washington had the second overall pick, and 4 picks before we picked Bishop.  Of course Daniels was great, he was the #1 QB in the draft.  Their second round pick at 36th overall Newton had 19 tackles and 2 sacks, where DeWayne Carter had 14 tackles and 5 TFLs

 

Sainristril was a decent corner this year, but was picked 10 picks before Bishop, and Sinnot their TE had 5 catches all year (pick 56)...

 

Washington's draft hit because of Daniels.  The rest of their selections are VERY VERY average.

 

When you look at the draft, honestly it just doesn't look like a great depth class.  Two players over 5 sacks, highest tackler had 62 tackles, Ray Davis was the third most productive RB, and only one player drafted after Keon had more yards, which was Ladd.  And Ladd plays slot only.

 

It was a top heavy draft that provided some great players (Daniels, Bowers, Nabers, BJT, Alt), but really cools off after pick 25.  If Bishop can turn into a starting Safety, and Grable/Davis/Coleman become decent starters, that will probably be a good result given the class.

[NickelCity]

I'm worried about Bishop. Keon convinced me in the Seahawks game but fell off HARD in a concerning way. 

 

SVPG, Ray, Solomon, Grable, Hardy...I like all of these picks. I have no clue what the think about Carter.

[MikePJ76]

4 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Do you think that the Eagles are saying, “don’t judge our 2024 class for 3 years?” What about the Commanders?

what?

 

the commanders had 6 picks in the top 100.  They had the number 2 pick in the draft.  

 

your comparing apples and oranges.  Teams have always had the 3 year rule on drafts going back to Tom Landry who essentially was the one to make that a thing.  

 

if the bills had the 2nd pick in the draft and took nabers or somebody you would be raving about the bills draft because anytime a big time qb/wr/pass rusher is taken in the top 10 and plays well everyone raves about the draft even if the rest of the guys were just good players not great ones.

[KOKBILLS]

9 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

You said the point was there is only 1 DT on the roster.  There are 3.  Carter had a serious wrist injury, had surgery and returned and tried to play through it.  

 

 

 

No I said he said that... I was making the point that even a Bills fan did not remember we had JUST drafted Dwayne Carter last year...

 

Dude... You wanna play who knows the Bills more with me? 

Edited Tuesday at 08:20 PM by KOKBILLS

[MikePJ76]

1 minute ago, KOKBILLS said:

 

No I said he said that...

 

Dude... You wanna play who knows the Bills more with me? 

is this a threat or something?  

 

You said they drafted Carter because he was good in the community.  That is false.  He was drafted because he is a scheme fit and can play the 3 inside and the 5 outside like he did in college.  He also is an excellent person who was a 3 time team captain at a school which requires more than fogging a mirror to get into.  

 

He is going to be a good player here going forward, on the field and in the locker room.

 

I mean he may never be an all pro like Troy Franklin but I am pretty confident he is going to be good here.

[KOKBILLS]

Just now, MikePJ76 said:

is this a threat or something?  

 

You said they drafted Carter because he was good in the community.  That is false.  He was drafted because he is a scheme fit and can play the 3 inside and the 5 outside like he did in college.  He also is an excellent person who was a 3 time team captain at a school which requires more than fogging a mirror to get into.  

 

He is going to be a good player here going forward, on the field and in the locker room.

 

I mean he may never be an all pro like Troy Franklin but I am pretty confident he is going to be good here.

 

I mean... I hope you're right...

[Kirby Jackson]

14 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

what?

 

the commanders had 6 picks in the top 100.  They had the number 2 pick in the draft.  

 

your comparing apples and oranges.  Teams have always had the 3 year rule on drafts going back to Tom Landry who essentially was the one to make that a thing.  

 

if the bills had the 2nd pick in the draft and took nabers or somebody you would be raving about the bills draft because anytime a big time qb/wr/pass rusher is taken in the top 10 and plays well everyone raves about the draft even if the rest of the guys were just good players not great ones.

Okay, now do the Eagles. The entire point is that if your rookie class comes out of the gates strong, no one cares about the 3 year rule. The 3 year rule applies when you have Coleman, Bishop and Carter as your first 3.

[Cray51]

17 minutes ago, NickelCity said:

I'm worried about Bishop. Keon convinced me in the Seahawks game but fell off HARD in a concerning way. 

 

SVPG, Ray, Solomon, Grable, Hardy...I like all of these picks. I have no clue what the think about Carter.

Hurting your hand/wrist will factor into your ability to produce.  Prior to his injury, Coleman was pacing for 800 yards and 6 TDs as a rookie.  That's QUITE good, and would have put him above Odunze and right around MHJ for rookie production.  Bills need to hope he returns to that first half of the year form.  If he does, he is plenty productive, especially given the draft position.

[Cray51]

2 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Okay, now do the Eagles. The entire point is that if your rookie class comes out of the gates strong, no one cares about the 3 year rule. The 3 year rule applies when you have Coleman, Bishop and Carter as your first 3.

Eagles:

 

Pick 22 - Quinyon Mitchell.  Maybe the Bills take him if they were picking at 22.  Eagles weren't trading back, so it's a moot point to try to say the Bills could have had a player like Mitchell at 28.  It wasn't happening.

 

Pick 40 - Cooper Dejean.  Good player, Eagles traded up for him.  I think he is a good safety/corner hybrid who will play for a long time.  Bills could have taken him at 33, but that would have left NOTHING at receiver at pick 60.  Good player though

 

After this, they have Hunt (who is unproven), Shipley is a nothing player, Smith is a nothing player, Trotter Jr. has some upside, and depth o-line potentially.

 

Eagles top 2 picks played well.  Their combined draft position is 62 to the Bill's 92.  They have essentially a half of a round of improvement on their picks compared to Buffalo.  That is very important when we consider evaluating these guys.