Revisiting 2024 draft

[FireChans]

3 hours ago, Nihilarian said:

This Buffalo Bills team is already a playoff team with some top talent on it and not some rebuilding crap team. How difficult do any of you think earning a roster spot on an already playoff team might be?

 

Those rookies would need to be nearly superstars at their position to make a starting spot on the team. AND McD doesn't like to start rookies because they usually tend to eff up at some point and might cost a game simply because they don't know what they don't know. 

 

As others have pointed out, evaluating players properly takes time, so start with the draft from three seasons ago. 

The argument that Bishop needed to be a superstar to beat out Damar Hamlin is kinda nuts.

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, SoTier said:

I hought that Beane's sin was not investing enough in defensive tackle.   Teams have finite resources -- draft picks, cap space, roster spots, etc -- that have to be juggled.  FTR, the Bills did make a major investment in WR ... they spent a first round pick in 2020 to acquire Stefon Diggs. 

 

Beane has spent a fortune on DTs. Every year he's paying several FAs and he's used three rounds 1-3 picks on the position, including his highest draft pick ever not named Josh Allen. Quality of investment, not quantity, has been the issue at DT.

 

WR is the exact opposite. The rare draft investments he's made have turned out pretty good. 1st rounder on Diggs was a big win. 4th rounder on Davis was a win. 5th rounder on Shakir was a big win. Coleman is TBD. I don't look at that group and say that Beane doesnt know how to scout WRs, he just for whatever reason doesn't invest a lot there.

[KOKBILLS]

2 hours ago, finn said:

In this thread about the 2024 draft, people keep saying you can't judge a draft until it's three years out. So let's look at the 2022 Bills draft: 

 

1. Kaiir Elam           

2. James Cook       

3. Terrel Bernard  

4. (Traded to move up for Elam)

5. Khalil Shakir       

6. Matt Araiza 

6. Christian Benford            

6. Luke Tenuta       

7. Baylon Spector

 

Elam is shaping up to be one of the bigger busts in Bills history. Cook, Shakir, and Benford are home runs for where they were taken. Bernard is an adequate starter who can be a playmaker at times but also disappears for whole games. Araiza is KC's meh punter. Tenuta has been a waiver-wire guy. Spector is not good, but at least he was never cut. 

 

Would have been an A+ draft if he had hit on the first-round pick (e.g. if he had traded up for McDuffie before KC beat him to it). Otherwise, it's the Cook-Bernard-Shakir-Benford draft. Four very good starters, but no blue chippers. Better than 2021's Rousseau-Brown-Hamlin draft and arguably on par with 2020, when he traded his number one for Diggs and picked up Epenesa, Zach Moss, Gabe Davis, Bass, and Dane Jackson.

 

Easy to spot the trend: Allen is the only blue-chip player Beane has drafted, Diggs the only free agent blue chip player (aside from 8 games from Von Miller). 

 

Good enough to be a runner up year after year after year. 

 

Well said... BBB is a solid B basically... But sometimes to get over the hump you need and A...

[Straight Hucklebuck]

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

Did you actually check on what Mitchell did as a rookie before you claimed he '"would make much more sense" than Coleman?

 

Adonai MItchell: 17 games, 7 games started, 55 targets, 23 receptions, 312 yards, 0 TDs, 36 long

Keon Coleman: 13 games, 12 games starter, 57 targets, 29 receptions, 556 yards, 4 TDs,  64 long

 

 

Covering your butt, are you?    IMO, there MIGHT some posters here who aren't declaring the 2024 draft a definite failure but there sure are numerous ones absolutely tarring and feathering the the Bills FO.

 

 

I thought that Beane's sin was not investing enough in defensive tackle.   Teams have finite resources -- draft picks, cap space, roster spots, etc -- that have to be juggled.  FTR, the Bills did make a major investment in WR ... they spent a first round pick in 2020 to acquire Stefon Diggs.  They didn't count on him only lasting three years with the team before he went looking for greener pastures.  Moreover, if the Bills continually spent their limited draft resources on WRs or DTs or whatever position wanna be GMs on this MB wanted, they would not have been able to build one of the best OLs in the NFL to protect their MVP QB.

 

 

Josh Allen says "hi".

 

 

Since you are so down on the Bills, I think you should raid your piggy bank to buy into an NFL team.  I understand the Giants are looking for some minority owners -- and with they're such a talent-laden team, all of their Day 1 and Day2 draft picks should be able to start from Day 1, especially if their GM -- and yours -- listens to you.

There are fans that are just happy to be in the conversation. 
 

This tactic is the same as it was mid-drought. 

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

The argument that Bishop needed to be a superstar to beat out Damar Hamlin is kinda nuts.

He’s not going to be a superstar playing 20-yards off the ball in coverage.

 

Should have drafted Calen Bullock if you wanted ball skills.

 

[st pete gogolak]

The general consensus before the draft is that the Bills wouldn’t be one player or a handful of plays away from a Super Bowl because of the loss of Diggs, Davis, Morse, White, Poyer and Hyde.  I think a lot of folks are forgetting that fact.  Maybe that was Beane’s thinking in accumulating some extra picks instead of going all in and overpaying for a blue chip WR.  

[DrMaxPower]

If you asked in the 1st half of the year people would be saying it was an excellent draft. If you ask in the 2nd half, you'd say it was terrible.

 

We'll see in a year. Truth will probably be somewhere in the middle. 

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Straight Hucklebuck said:

He’s not going to be a superstar playing 20-yards off the ball in coverage.

 

Should have drafted Calen Bullock if you wanted ball skills

He’s not going to be a superstar if he can’t beat out a slow as molasses complete liability 6th round pick career backup.

 

Listen, I’m not giving up on Bishop yet. But the light needs to come on, soon, to justify his draft position.

 

His rookie year was about as worst case scenario as it comes. He was lost out there. He may have had the worst rookie season out of a Bills highly drafted player that I have seen in quite a while. Even Elam showed some promise (that quickly evaporated).

[SoTier]

4 hours ago, Billl said:

The assumption is that all will rookies improve over time.  That doesn’t mean they can’t be major contributors in year one, especially late in the season and in the playoffs.  Coleman had 1 catch for 5 yards in the WC round, 1 catch for 5 yards in the Divisional, and 1 catch for 12 yards in the CCG.  If he’d put up 6 catches for 85 yards and a TD against KC, Buffalo likely would have been in the Super Bowl.  Even if he becomes a stud in year 3, that doesn’t change the past.

 

Point 1 -- Coleman didn't seem to be as good when he returned from his injury as he had been before.

Point 2 -- In the Divisional game, Coleman drew a PI that set up a Bills TD ... that kind of contribution doesn't show up on the stat line.

Point 3 -- KC traded up to get Worthy.  Maybe if they had traded up to get a better OT prospect, they might have their three-peat.  Even if Suamataia becomes an All Pro in year 3, that doesn't change the past.

 

3 hours ago, finn said:

In this thread about the 2024 draft, people keep saying you can't judge a draft until it's three years out. So let's look at the 2022 Bills draft: 

 

1. Kaiir Elam           

2. James Cook       

3. Terrel Bernard  

4. (Traded to move up for Elam)

5. Khalil Shakir       

6. Matt Araiza 

6. Christian Benford            

6. Luke Tenuta       

7. Baylon Spector

 

Elam is shaping up to be one of the bigger busts in Bills history. Cook, Shakir, and Benford are home runs for where they were taken. Bernard is an adequate starter who can be a playmaker at times but also disappears for whole games. Araiza is KC's meh punter. Tenuta has been a waiver-wire guy. Spector is not good, but at least he was never cut. 

 

Would have been an A+ draft if he had hit on the first-round pick (e.g. if he had traded up for McDuffie before KC beat him to it). Otherwise, it's the Cook-Bernard-Shakir-Benford draft. Four very good starters, but no blue chippers. Better than 2021's Rousseau-Brown-Hamlin draft and arguably on par with 2020, when he traded his number one for Diggs and picked up Epenesa, Zach Moss, Gabe Davis, Bass, and Dane Jackson.

 

Easy to spot the trend: Allen is the only blue-chip player Beane has drafted, Diggs the only free agent blue chip player (aside from 8 games from Von Miller). 

 

Good enough to be a runner up year after year after year. 

 

James Cook is very definitely a blue chipper. 

Diggs wasn't a FA.  The Bills traded their first round pick in 2020 to get him from Minnesota.   

The Bills signed guard Connor McGovern from Dallas in 2023 and he played very well.  In 2024, he moved over to center to replace Mitch Morse -- and he played even better and earned a Pro Bowl berth.

 

You don't always get what you want, dude.  Deal with it.

[SoTier]

17 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He’s not going to be a superstar if he can’t beat out a slow as molasses c.omplete liability 6th round pick career backup.

 

Listen, I’m not giving up on Bishop yet. But the light needs to come on, soon, to justify his draft position.

 

His rookie year was about as worst case scenario as it comes. He was lost out there. He may have had the worst rookie season out of a Bills highly drafted player that I have seen in quite a while. Even Elam showed some promise (that quickly evaporated).

 

I think that a lot of people said something similar to that about Bryce Young.  He even started 2024 poorly, but then "the light came on" and he played really well the rest of the season.  Certainly down the stretch, he played better than last year's OROY CJ Stroud.   Players making a big jump between their rookie and sophomore seasons is very common.

[FireChans]

Just now, SoTier said:

 

I think that a lot of people said something similar to that about Bryce Young.  He even started 2024 poorly, but then "the light came on" and he played really well the rest of the season.  Certainly down the stretch, he played better than last year's OROY CJ Stroud.   Players making a big jump between their rookie and sophomore seasons is very common.

I mean, Bryce Young had a nice stretch where he wasn’t arguably the worst QB in football.

 

Are you putting money on him being the next star QB?

[SoTier]

5 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I mean, Bryce Young had a nice stretch where he wasn’t arguably the worst QB in football.

 

Are you putting money on him being the next star QB?

 

He could be.  If the Panthers get him an OL and some weapons, he might blossom.

 

Did you forget that Josh Allen didn't look very promising on a really talent-deprived Bills team in 2018?  He improved significantly between his rookie and sophomore season, but even in his third season, lots of analysts still doubted him. 

 

[HappyDays]

45 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Did you forget that Josh Allen didn't look very promising on a really talent-deprived Bills team in 2018? 

 

I thought he did look very promising in his rookie season. Notably he got better as the year went along and flashed tremendous upside.

 

Of last year's top 3 draft picks I'd say Coleman is the only one that flashed for me, it's just unfortunate that it came halfway through the season and then he massively regressed after his injury. If he had built on that Tennesee-Seattle stretch everyone would feel much better about the pick right now. At least we saw a glimpse of his potential so I still have some hope he will develop nicely.

 

Bishop and Carter for me never flashed. That's the concerning part. Carter had what one notable play against Houston for the whole season? Bishop didn't do anything notable, he was just a guy out there and at times a liability. But of course it's still early for both of them. I just would have liked to see some kind of flash that we could build on.

[finn]

1 hour ago, SoTier said:

You don't always get what you want, dude.  Deal with it.

I have enough to deal with reading sophomoric replies like this, dude. 

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 2/18/2025 at 7:49 AM, Pete said:

Round 2 • Pick 1 (33) • WR Keon Coleman

Round 2 • Pick 28 (60) • SAF Cole Bishop

Round 3 • Pick 32 (95) • DT DeWayne Carter

Round 4 • Pick 28 (128) • RB Ray Davis

Round 5 • Pick 6 (141) • C Sedrick Van Pran-Granger

Round 5 • Pick 25 (160) • LB Edefuan Ulofoshio

Round 5 • Pick 33 (168) • EDGE Javon Solomon

Round 6 • Pick 28 (204) • OT Tylan Grable

Round 6 • Pick 43 (219) • CB Daequan Hardy

Round 7 • Pick 1 (221) • OT Travis Clayton

how do you feel about this draft now?

 

2-Keon- I hated the pick at the time.  Keon played decent pre-Poyer hit.  But was almost useless after.  Keon was first player selected Day 2.  So Beane has all night to contemplate that pick and turn down draft picks.

 

2-Cole - an ok selection.  Hopefully he can make big progress this season.

 

3- DeWayne big fat F.  2% pass rush win rate is horrendous.  Horrible pick Beane.

 

4-Ray Davis- finally a solid draft selection.  Ray will be a productive Bill for years.

 

5- Ed- hardly saw the field- TBD

 

5–Solomon looks like a good situational pass rusher.  Beanes second decent pick.

 

6-Tylan - best pick of the draft.  Tylan sounds like a great find!

 

6-Hardy- undersized, good practice squad depth, return ability.

 

7- Clayton- potential.  
 

so one lukewarm hit in the first 3 rounds.

 

Keon was awful in playoffs, and Cole has potential.

 

Ray, Solomon, and Tylan look like Bills going forward.

 

All those draft picks, and your 6th round draft pick looks to be best pick.  Way too many whiffs, again.

 

I rate this draft a D-

 

 

I thought it was common knowledge that a draft needs 3 full years to be evaluated. People thought Terrell Bernard (the TBD scapegoat lately) was a flop. He broke into the scene and is one of the best SPLASH PLAY linebackers in the league. 

43 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I thought he did look very promising in his rookie season. Notably he got better as the year went along and flashed tremendous upside.

 

Of last year's top 3 draft picks I'd say Coleman is the only one that flashed for me, it's just unfortunate that it came halfway through the season and then he massively regressed after his injury. If he had built on that Tennesee-Seattle stretch everyone would feel much better about the pick right now. At least we saw a glimpse of his potential so I still have some hope he will develop nicely.

 

Bishop and Carter for me never flashed. That's the concerning part. Carter had what one notable play against Houston for the whole season? Bishop didn't do anything notable, he was just a guy out there and at times a liability. But of course it's still early for both of them. I just would have liked to see some kind of flash that we could build on.

I have a ton of faith in Coleman. His floor is Gabe Davis, but he could potentially be better. His body control, adjustment, and hops are all superb. Speed is insanely overrated. Give me a guy that can win jump balls and out physical CBs.

[JohnNord]

On 2/18/2025 at 7:49 AM, Pete said:

Round 2 • Pick 1 (33) • WR Keon Coleman

Round 2 • Pick 28 (60) • SAF Cole Bishop

Round 3 • Pick 32 (95) • DT DeWayne Carter

Round 4 • Pick 28 (128) • RB Ray Davis

Round 5 • Pick 6 (141) • C Sedrick Van Pran-Granger

Round 5 • Pick 25 (160) • LB Edefuan Ulofoshio

Round 5 • Pick 33 (168) • EDGE Javon Solomon

Round 6 • Pick 28 (204) • OT Tylan Grable

Round 6 • Pick 43 (219) • CB Daequan Hardy

Round 7 • Pick 1 (221) • OT Travis Clayton

how do you feel about this draft now?

 

2-Keon- I hated the pick at the time.  Keon played decent pre-Poyer hit.  But was almost useless after.  Keon was first player selected Day 2.  So Beane has all night to contemplate that pick and turn down draft picks.

 

2-Cole - an ok selection.  Hopefully he can make big progress this season.

 

3- DeWayne big fat F.  2% pass rush win rate is horrendous.  Horrible pick Beane.

 

4-Ray Davis- finally a solid draft selection.  Ray will be a productive Bill for years.

 

5- Ed- hardly saw the field- TBD

 

5–Solomon looks like a good situational pass rusher.  Beanes second decent pick.

 

6-Tylan - best pick of the draft.  Tylan sounds like a great find!

 

6-Hardy- undersized, good practice squad depth, return ability.

 

7- Clayton- potential.  
 

so one lukewarm hit in the first 3 rounds.

 

Keon was awful in playoffs, and Cole has potential.

 

Ray, Solomon, and Tylan look like Bills going forward.

 

All those draft picks, and your 6th round draft pick looks to be best pick.  Way too many whiffs, again.

 

I rate this draft a D-

 

 

Yes it does take two or three seasons to evaluate a draft.  But if we’re projecting, it seems to me that this draft is follows the same patterns of previous Beane drafts.  
 

Average talent in Rounds 1-3, excellent value in Rounds 4-7.   
 

I’m not that high on Coleman.  I don’t think he’ll be a complete bust but I also can’t see him breaking out.  He’s the same receiver in the NFL as he was in college.  IMO most likely roles is WR4.

 

Bishop is tough to evaluate.  Good news is he wasn’t a liability on the field when he plays (sans 1 play versus Houston), but he also never stood out when he got reps.  Not sure where he stands.  
 

I’m not high on Carter.  Yes he made a nice run stop versus Tennessee but he also was one of the worst players on defense and couldn’t see the field in the postseason - not a good sign.  We’re looking at a rotational defensive lineman which isn’t great for a 3rd rounder.

 

I think Davis and Solomon will be role players, which is good return for their picks.  I think Grable, SVG, and Hardy also have some potential.

 

So overall, it’s tough to assign a grade for this draft but I also haven’t been encouraged by the Coleman and Carter picks.  

On 2/18/2025 at 8:01 AM, SoCal Deek said:

What I see from that Draft Class is a bunch of guys who the coaching staff refused to put on the field and/or utilize. It seems like the Front Office and the Coaching Office are in two different buildings. Now maybe that’s because the established roster is good enough so as to not need to throw rookies into the fire but I’m guessing the post-season grades would be much better if this year’s class had been drafted by other, more needy, teams. 

Which rookies would you play over current Bills starters?  The only argument you can make could be Bishop over Coleman.  The rest showed they weren’t ready.

 

[SoTier]

14 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I thought he did look very promising in his rookie season. Notably he got better as the year went along and flashed tremendous upside.

 

Of last year's top 3 draft picks I'd say Coleman is the only one that flashed for me, it's just unfortunate that it came halfway through the season and then he massively regressed after his injury. If he had built on that Tennesee-Seattle stretch everyone would feel much better about the pick right now. At least we saw a glimpse of his potential so I still have some hope he will develop nicely.

 

Bishop and Carter for me never flashed. That's the concerning part. Carter had what one notable play against Houston for the whole season? Bishop didn't do anything notable, he was just a guy out there and at times a liability. But of course it's still early for both of them. I just would have liked to see some kind of flash that we could build on.

 

Carter is a DT, and DTs generally take longer to develop than DEs, especially when they're late Day 2 picks (#31 in the third round).  He was also injured IIRC.

[Pete]

1 minute ago, SoTier said:

 

Carter is a DT, and DTs generally take longer to develop than DEs, especially when they're late Day 2 picks (#31 in the third round).  He was also injured IIRC.

Carter was 102 out of 219 DT in snap count.

 

Carter was ranked 193 out of 219 by PFF.  Over 88% DTs played better than our 3rd round pick

[FireChans]

16 hours ago, SoTier said:

 

He could be.  If the Panthers get him an OL and some weapons, he might blossom.

 

Did you forget that Josh Allen didn't look very promising on a really talent-deprived Bills team in 2018?  He improved significantly between his rookie and sophomore season, but even in his third season, lots of analysts still doubted him. 

 

Yeah and Josh Allen in 2019 took the Bills to 10 wins and the playoffs.

 

Bryce Young in his second season was benched for Andy Dalton and was 4-8 as a starter.

 

Ignoring the obvious difference between QBs and safeties, I’m not saying Bishop’s career is over or that he’s toast.

 

What I’m saying is that when Beane and co draft a DB high like that, especially in a position group that is talent bereft, you have to think the expectation was to see more than what we did from Bishop. 
 

Which is not dissimilar to what happened with Elam. If you recall, Elam was their high CB target and he had very limited competition for that job. He couldn’t take it and that was a bad sign. 
 

Not every player is gonna be Tre White and be very good from the jump. There are levels to this. 
 

I think everyone including the Bills FO feels worse about Bishops chances than they did last April. Do you disagree?

[SirAndrew]

Ray Davis is going to be a good football player. I think he’ll be the biggest success from that draft. Coleman isn’t a good NFL player. He didn’t show anything this year, or in college that makes think he should be a starter in the league. Bishop is the defensive version of Kincaid. He looks slow, weak, and timid on the field. He can improve, as he’s a rookie, but nothing about him looks like a starting NFL safety. Bishop plays like an elite mid major college football star. I think that’s what he is, and possibly a decent backup. 

[SoTier]

6 hours ago, Pete said:

Carter was 102 out of 219 DT in snap count.

 

Carter was ranked 193 out of 219 by PFF.  Over 88% DTs played better than our 3rd round pick

 

There were 219 rookie DTs in the 2024????   I think not. 

 

 

5 hours ago, FireChans said:

Yeah and Josh Allen in 2019 took the Bills to 10 wins and the playoffs.

 

Bryce Young in his second season was benched for Andy Dalton and was 4-8 as a starter.

 

Ignoring the obvious difference between QBs and safeties, I’m not saying Bishop’s career is over or that he’s toast.

 

What I’m saying is that when Beane and co draft a DB high like that, especially in a position group that is talent bereft, you have to think the expectation was to see more than what we did from Bishop. 
 

Which is not dissimilar to what happened with Elam. If you recall, Elam was their high CB target and he had very limited competition for that job. He couldn’t take it and that was a bad sign. 
 

Not every player is gonna be Tre White and be very good from the jump. There are levels to this. 
 

I think everyone including the Bills FO feels worse about Bishops chances than they did last April. Do you disagree?

 

Tre White was drafted #27 in the first round.   Cole Bishop was drafted #60 (#28 in the second round) which is much closer to the third round than to the bottom of the first round where White was drafted .   If he was ready to play in the NFL, he would have been gone before #60.