Revisiting 2024 draft

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

In what way did it cool off after pick 25?  Xavier Worthy went at 28.  McConkey was 34.  Braden Fiske was 39.  Dejean went 40th, and Kamari Lassiter was 42nd.  Those are all foundational pieces for the teams that drafted them.

 

3 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

You might have jumped in late. The response was to the poster that suggested that the Eagles 1st 3 picks look better than the Bills 1st 3 picks because they picked earlier. The response was, “if the Bills picked McConkey and Bullock instead of Coleman and Bishop” we wouldn’t be using when in the round they picked as an excuse. 
 

To be clear for the late comers, NO ONE IS SAYING THAT THE DRAFT IS DEFINITELY A FAILURE AT THIS POINT. At the same time, there were guys picked at the same positions, that were available to the Bills, that are off to better (in some cases much better) starts.

Guess we were lucky that we didn't draft Xavier Legette or Ja'Lynn Polk that we could have drafted too with their much worse stats. 

[Billl]

16 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

Ladd can play outside as he did at UGA. He played 70.3% of his snaps there and parlayed that into getting picked early. He played nearly 30% of the snaps on the outside as a rookie. He’s not ONLY a slot guy like Beasley for example. He’s closer to Amon-Ra St. Brown. He will probably be somewhere closer to like 60/40 slot to boundary. 

Even if McConkey is strictly a slot guy, who cares?  He played 17 games and had 1350 yards.  Shakir played 18 games and had 900 yards.  Now the debate is whether or not to give him a contract likely in the neighborhood of 4/$70 million.  Meanwhile, Xavier Worthy played primarily on the outside, and Coleman looked like a slot being miscast as an X.

 

When you draft enough high end talent, the roster construction takes care of itself.

[Brand J]

Here’s my 2024 All-Hindsight Draft (top 3 picks):

 

2) #33 - DT T’Vondre Sweat (at 6’4” 366lbs the Bills find their run stopping DT1. Made the PFWA All Rookie team).

 

2) #60 - S Calen Bullock (at 6’3” 190 with 4.48 speed, the Bills find their center field replacement for Micah Hyde. Made the PFWA All Rookie team).

 

3) #95 - WR Troy Franklin (I know he underwhelmed with Denver and had a much publicized drop, but I’m taking a swing with the speedster here. Maybe he would’ve looked better with Allen throwing to him.)

 

I think that group will prove, collectively, to be better long term than Coleman, Bishop, and Carter. I hope not, but it is what it is.

[The Jokeman]

13 hours ago, Brand J said:

Here’s my 2024 All-Hindsight Draft (top 3 picks):

 

2) #33 - DT T’Vondre Sweat (at 6’4” 366lbs the Bills find their run stopping DT1. Made the PFWA All Rookie team).

 

2) #60 - S Calen Bullock (at 6’3” 190 with 4.48 speed, the Bills find their center field replacement for Micah Hyde. Made the PFWA All Rookie team).

 

3) #95 - WR Troy Franklin (I know he underwhelmed with Denver and had a much publicized drop, but I’m taking a swing with the speedster here. Maybe he would’ve looked better with Allen throwing to him.)

 

I think that group will prove, collectively, to be better long term than Coleman, Bishop, and Carter. I hope not, but it is what it is.

Why not hindsight and select...

 

33. Ruke Orhorhoro, DT.

60. Malachi Corley, WR.

95. Dadrion Taylor-Demerson, S

 

All guys taken around same picks you mentioned but less productive then what we got. Showing how much hindsight can assist judgement. 

 

 

 

13 hours ago, Billl said:

Even if McConkey is strictly a slot guy, who cares?  He played 17 games and had 1350 yards.  Shakir played 18 games and had 900 yards.  Now the debate is whether or not to give him a contract likely in the neighborhood of 4/$70 million.  Meanwhile, Xavier Worthy played primarily on the outside, and Coleman looked like a slot being miscast as an X.

 

When you draft enough high end talent, the roster construction takes care of itself.

Do you feel McConkey significantly better than Shakir? If so who did we have on the roster that have to replace Coleman on the outside? 

Edited Wednesday at 02:28 PM by The Jokeman

[HappyDays]

9 hours ago, BarleyNY said:

Beane’s chronic habit of leaving a hole at one position to be filled with their first round pick (or pick 33) in the draft has been very harmful to this roster.

 

Good news - we have multiple big holes on the roster and aren't likely to have all of them filled by the draft. CB, WR, and the entire DL need to be improved.

[Billl]

26 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Do you feel McConkey significantly better than Shakir? If so who did we have on the roster that have to replace Coleman on the outside? 

Yes, McConkey is significantly better.  I’m a fan of Shakir, but we saw his ceiling in 2023 and we saw what happens when you try to make him a #1 in 2024.  As far as replacing Coleman goes, who cares?  He had 550 yards and 4 TDs.  Ladd’s worth Shakir, Coleman, and a 1st rounder.  You build a team around a guy like that.  

 

Guys who can get 550 yards and 4 TDs grow on trees.  DeAndre Hopkins had 600 yards and 5 TDs and was traded for the 170th pick in the draft.  Replacing that kind of production shouldn’t be what keeps a GM up at night.  What should keep them up is figuring out how to get elite talent to help maximize the production of an MVP caliber QB.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Kirby Jackson said:

McConkey ran 70.3% of his routes at UGA from the outside. To say that he’s a “pure slot option” is false. The Chargers used him a lot in the slot but not because they had to. They did it because it worked. He finished his rookie year with 82/1149/7. 

 

550 of those yards came from the slot matched up not on nickel corners.... but on linebackers. I posted the numbers last week. Doesn't mean McConkey isn't a stud. He is. But that's why slot receivers are not good uses of first round picks. Because I can find receivers who win matched up on linebackers in space on day 2 and even day 3 of the draft.

 

And I liked McConkey more than I liked Coleman. Because I think Coleman is really a big slot and I just think McConkey is a better player. But I don't think he'd have been a fix to the Bills issue either. 

2 hours ago, Billl said:

In what way did it cool off after pick 25?  Xavier Worthy went at 28.  McConkey was 34.  Braden Fiske was 39.  Dejean went 40th, and Kamari Lassiter was 42nd.  Those are all foundational pieces for the teams that drafted them.

 

And all were clearly better than Keon Coleman on tape IMO. While everyone was giving it the "over valuing the combine" line on Coleman it should have been applied to Lassiter who but for a poor combine was probably a first rounder and played like he should have been.

[Billl]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

But that's why slot receivers are not good uses of first round picks. Because I can find receivers who win matched up on linebackers in space on day 2 and even day 3 of the draft.

Not at the level Ladd did it, you can’t.  Including the postseason, he had the third most yards in the entire league.  On top of that, he exploded in the second half of the season.  He’s easily worth multiple first round picks.  No way they’d trade him to Buffalo for their next two first round picks, for example.

[EmotionallyUnstable]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Coleman is the X receiver.  Amari Cooper played the Y last year.  If we had draft DeJean, we'd be missing both the X & Y receivers for 2025.  Instead we are only missing the Y receiver.  

The Y is usually reserved to reference a TE. If you’re looking at a move piece for a WR, you’re looking at the Z (Cooper/Hollins) out of 21 or the H (Shakir/Samuel). 

 

The labels aren’t as important as the skill set the the players possess. For example you could see Samuel as the H, Z or A….because he can be versatile in formation and usage. But all of these positions have one thing in common: they are move positions. You can get a free release out of these looks. 
 

The X needs to be able to win at the LOS. And Coleman had a lot of trouble doing this. So I think your evaluation of the roster is a bit upside down (unless Coleman improves): we have a few guys who can play the off-the-ball move receiver, but no one who can really dominate on the outside without needing motion or formation to help. 

Edited Wednesday at 02:07 AM by EmotionallyUnstable

[nedboy7]

Is there any possibility that Josh had a say in the Coleman pick?  I remember some comments on that were made. 
 

Edited Wednesday at 02:16 AM by nedboy7

[GunnerBill]

18 minutes ago, Billl said:

Not at the level Ladd did it, you can’t.  Including the postseason, he had the third most yards in the entire league.  On top of that, he exploded in the second half of the season.  He’s easily worth multiple first round picks.  No way they’d trade him to Buffalo for their next two first round picks, for example.

 

Correct but it is value above replacement and it is lower in the slot for reasons I have explained previously. A team would be insane to give multiple 1sts for him. 

[Billl]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Correct but it is value above replacement and it is lower in the slot for reasons I have explained previously. A team would be insane to give multiple 1sts for him. 

So what do you think Shakir is going to get on his next contract?  He’s 800 yards and 4 TDS.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, Billl said:

So what do you think Shakir is going to get on his next contract?  He’s 800 yards and 4 TDS.

 

I think he will get somewhere in the high teens AAV $17-19m. 

[The Jokeman]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

Yes, McConkey is significantly better.  I’m a fan of Shakir, but we saw his ceiling in 2023 and we saw what happens when you try to make him a #1 in 2024.  As far as replacing Coleman goes, who cares?  He had 550 yards and 4 TDs.  Ladd’s worth Shakir, Coleman, and a 1st rounder.  You build a team around a guy like that.  

 

Guys who can get 550 yards and 4 TDs grow on trees.  DeAndre Hopkins had 600 yards and 5 TDs and was traded for the 170th pick in the draft.  Replacing that kind of production shouldn’t be what keeps a GM up at night.  What should keep them up is figuring out how to get elite talent to help maximize the production of an MVP caliber QB.

You're so quick to dismiss that Coleman had  175 yards less of YAC below McConkey on 55 less targets. If Coleman had as many targets as McConkey he would had almost exactly the same amount of yards and as many TDs. I guess it's easy to miss those numbers because they don't fit your narrative.  Do some digging and look how many rookie WRs averaged more than 19 yards per catch the last four seasons. Tell you what I'll save you the trouble. Just one by the name of Keon Coleman. But yeah he's just an average WR. 

[BarleyNY]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Good news - we have multiple big holes on the roster and aren't likely to have all of them filled by the draft. CB, WR, and the entire DL need to be improved.

It’s going to be very difficult to find difference makers at multiple positions in one offseason. I agree that we really need that, but I see FA as more for finding adequate starters to fill roster holes. It’s not going to be an easy road this offseason, but the Bills put themselves in this position. 

[Lost]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I think he will get somewhere in the high teens AAV $17-19m. 

 

Would you consider that an overpay if Beane gives him that much?

[MikePJ76]

3 hours ago, Billl said:

Yes, McConkey is significantly better.  I’m a fan of Shakir, but we saw his ceiling in 2023 and we saw what happens when you try to make him a #1 in 2024.  As far as replacing Coleman goes, who cares?  He had 550 yards and 4 TDs.  Ladd’s worth Shakir, Coleman, and a 1st rounder.  You build a team around a guy like that.  

 

Guys who can get 550 yards and 4 TDs grow on trees.  DeAndre Hopkins had 600 yards and 5 TDs and was traded for the 170th pick in the draft.  Replacing that kind of production shouldn’t be what keeps a GM up at night.  What should keep them up is figuring out how to get elite talent to help maximize the production of an MVP caliber QB.

Coleman was a 21 year old rookie who had a wrist injury which derailed his season.

 

you make these posts as if Coleman’s ceiling is 550 and 4 touchdowns.

 

completely foolish opinion.

 

Ladd being worth Coleman, shakir and a 1 is one of the most ridiculous things I have read here.  I’m surprised you didn’t say sky Moore is better than Coleman and shakir.

 

 

[HappyDays]

Reading through this thread, on one hand I understand the current obsession with Cooper DeJean. He did after all just have one of the plays of the Super Bowl so it's fresh in everyone's minds. But let's be honest - the Bills absolutely needed to take a WR with their 1st pick last year. Most people on this board agreed with that sentiment last year too. That is of course Beane's fault for neglecting the position in previous years, but given the roster at that time and the strength of the WR class it was an absolute necessity and it would have been foolish to neglect the position yet again in favor of a DB that can't play on the boundary. Beane still needs to be right about the player, but the position was a no brainer.

 

I can't imagine DeJean making any difference to how our season ended. I mean we at one point gave up 42 points to KC when Taron, Poyer, and Hyde were all in their primes. So why would a nickel CB have changed our fate?

 

I don't expect rookies drafted late in their rounds to be key features of their team. I expect them to contribute and show progress over the course of the season. My concern with our first three picks last year is that none of them showed any meaningful upwards trajectory in the last quarter of the season. Coleman severely regressed after returning from injury, Bishop was basically the same player with maybe a slightly higher floor, Carter wasn't even active. Each of them was in some fashion affected by injury but that excuse grows very tired when it's used year after year. We'll hope that at least two of them take a major step forward which is the case for like 95% of drafted players after their rookie season.

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, Billl said:

Yes, McConkey is significantly better.

 

Would have been a much better pick for KC too using your same logic. But it's much easier to find WRs that can win from the slot than WRs that can win vertically, so it's hard to blame them yeah? We paid Cole Beasley $7.2M AAV and got basically the same effect with a little less juice. So yeah I'm happy saving my 1st round picks for players that can't be replaced with low-mid-tier FA contracts.

 

Let's not forget that there were other WRs we passed on in favor of Coleman - Pearsall, Legette, Polk, Mitchell. Not exactly the greatest show on turf as rookies. So our choice was a really good slot, or one of the outside WRs with upside that wasn't likely to contribute in year one. I'll take the outside WR with upside every time because the pay off if you hit is so much larger.

 

Beane's sin was not a single decision made in last year's draft. His sin was waiting this long to make a major investment. KC is a great example - they threw away high picks on Hardman, Moore, and Toney before finally hitting on Rice (pending his ability to stop being a dumbass off the field). They didn't find a #1 WR through expert scouting, they found it by throwing a lot of darts. Beane needs to keep throwing darts in rounds 1-3. And after he gets a hit, keep throwing them.

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, Billl said:

Yes, McConkey is significantly better.  I’m a fan of Shakir, but we saw his ceiling in 2023 and we saw what happens when you try to make him a #1 in 2024.  As far as replacing Coleman goes, who cares?  He had 550 yards and 4 TDs.  Ladd’s worth Shakir, Coleman, and a 1st rounder.  You build a team around a guy like that.  

 

Guys who can get 550 yards and 4 TDs grow on trees.  DeAndre Hopkins had 600 yards and 5 TDs and was traded for the 170th pick in the draft.  Replacing that kind of production shouldn’t be what keeps a GM up at night.  What should keep them up is figuring out how to get elite talent to help maximize the production of an MVP caliber QB.

 

WTF?

Let's be clear here.  There is no "we".  You're a Chiefs fan visiting here.

 

No, we did not at all see Shakir's ceiling in 2023.  We saw him being used in a somewhat different way in the first part of 2023 which changed after Brady took over.  In 2024 he had more 1D, more TD, and more Y/G (while having less Y/R because of the Bills offensive changes under Brady).  Shakir adapted to the changes and got 72% of his yards after catch in 2024.