Who is your choice at pick #30?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

11 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

The biggest, fattest slob that can still pressure QB, while stopping the run at DT

“We don’t have fat guys” - Gregg Williams

[ghostwriter]

23 minutes ago, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

WR Matthew "24 karat" Golden- Texas

This WR class is very underwhelming.. I would be disappointed if we go WR with our first or second pick..

[BuffaloBillsGospel2014]

1 hour ago, ghostwriter said:

This WR class is very underwhelming.. I would be disappointed if we go WR with our first or second pick..

 

I wouldn't hate any weapons for our QB1, they're definitely needed.

[Richard Noggin]

10 hours ago, machine gun kelly said:

My choice is we use this years 1st, one of our 2nds, and next years 1st, and secure Garrett.  That’s my pick.  It’s not as if Beane has a great track record with 1sts anyway.  This is the best defensive lineman in football, and GROOT would be great with Garrett on the other side.  With the other 2nd we grab the best DT in the draft as it’s a deep class.

 

I'm fine with the Bills using those draft assets to acquire Garrett. He's great. I'm even more fine with the Bills using those assets, or maybe less, to acquire Crosby. (I recognize that his potential availability is mere rumor and Bills mafia fan fiction.)

 

I'm also fine with the Bills investing 2 of their 3 Day One and Two picks on DL. The draft is deep there, so lean into that if the opportunity arises. Let talented DL prospects fall to you, or if you miss a run on them, there should be DBs or OLs with value. Will need a cheap LG or OC soon, to replace David Edwards in 2026. McGovern could slide back over if an OC develops or falls into their laps before an LG does. Is that VPG? How much longer will Dawkins play at this high level without needing another big payday? Just keep stocking the cupboards. 

[LABILLBACKER]

On 2/17/2025 at 2:19 PM, TheBeaneBandit said:

Many latest drafts I'm seeing my favorite guys are gone before we pick. So I guess throw me in the trade-up crowd 🤣. DE,DT,WR.....Grant is also one of mine, he is one of few rare DT I move up for.

Most mocks have Grant going 20-25.  I've even seen a couple having us trade up with the Vikings for Grant. Grant would be my pick but hopefully we don't have a 30th because we landed Garrett or Crosby. Looks like a trade up to the mid 20's would cost us both 4th's?

[GunnerBill]

Okay, so my list of guys I'd consider at #30 who I think have a reasonable chance to be there:

 

Defensive Tackles (working on the basis that Mason Graham is already off the board)

Walter Nolen - I have a 1st on Nolan and while I slightly fear the Bills will just see him as too similar to Ed Oliver he is just better for me than the other guys likely to be in and around this pick. He may well now be gone. When I did his film and graded him in mid-January having a true first him was a bit of an outlier. It seems since the Senior Bowl the world has caught up. Would you want he and Ed out there together vs Baltimore or Detroit? Probably not. But Nolen is a very good run defender and against anyone other than the elite power run teams I think you could combine he and Ed and just blow interior offensive lines up.

 

Kenneth Grant - You just don't find many guys at this size that move this well. Experience playing both in the A gap and the B gap, would dominate in the run game, and definitely is the most natural of the three DTs I'd consider in terms of his fit next to Ed Oliver. Actually thought he rushed the passer better in 2024 than in 2023, even if his sack production went down slightly though he probably gives you less in the pass game than the other two. 

 

Derrick Harmon - I'd love to slide back and take Harmon after picking up an extra draft pick but I'd be willing to do it at #30 as well if that made sense. Mainly a 3T in college with the most pressures of any interior Dlineman in the FBS last season, but plays with the technique and pad leverage to play as a 1T. Seen him compared to DaQuan Jones and I see that, but I think he has a bit more juice than Jones. If he can add like 5-8lbs in weight he is built to be one of the more active 1Ts in football IMO. 

 

Defensive Ends (working on the basis that Abdul Carter, James Pearce and Mike Green are already off the board)

Princely Umanmielen - I'm higher on Princely than others but he is similar to Mike Green for me in that the risk you'd take is he is not at this stage an all around defensive end. He is just a pass rusher. But he has length, he has bend, he has explosive burst.... the knocks on him other than his edge setting in the run game are his hands could improve and he could add some nuance to his pass rush but he has the traits to be a high end pass rusher. 

 

Nic Scourton - Great understanding of how you rush the passer, his approach is nuanced, varied and productive and I love his hand use which is fast, heavy and deliberate. Played a bit bigger this year at Texas A&M I'd want him back down to his Purdue weight where he was more explosive but he is going to be pro-ready to go against NFL tackles right off the bat. 

 

Shermar Stewart - Athletic freak, technical mess, the bust potential is high but the ceiling here is an elite perennial all-pro type pass rusher. If he can just be coached up to better understand his leverage, get rid of his tendency to lean into offensive linemen and to use his arms and hands better the overall physical package is worth a shot. 

 

Corners (working on the basis that Travis Hunter and Will Johnson are already off the board and so is Shanon Revel unless his medicals are so bad he is fully off the board)

Jahdae Barron - Versatile chess piece or starting corner? I think for a team that is going to be mainly a zone defense he is a starting outside corner. Measurements will be interesting for him. If his arms come in short then he is out of consideration here but he got better every year at Texas and while his tackling technique in run support needs work I think he can be a really effective boundary player. 

 

Wide Receivers (working on the basis that Travis Hunter, Tetairoa McMillan, Emeka Egbuka and Luther Burden are off the board)

Matthew Golden - Big play receiver who needs to be more consistent. Can play outside or from the slot, but needs to sharpen up his route running, has a tendency to round routes off rather than getting in and out of breaks and his hands need to be more consistent. He can be a game breaker though and if he runs in the 4.3s at the Combine probably cements himself as a late first round pick. 

 

 

In terms of how those guys rank on my big board currently:

 

1. Jahdae Barron

2. Walter Nolen

3. Princely Umanmielen

4. Nick Scourton

5. Derrick Harmon

6. Kenneth Grant

7. Matthew Golden

8. Shermar Stewart

 

Barron and Nolen are sufficiently separated from the pack as true 1sts by my grades that if either is there I'd just take them (not sure the Bills will, especially Nolen) after that, genuinely the other 6 are sufficiently clustered that I consider them in the same tier of prospect and it becomes a bit you pays your money you takes your choice. I'd probably lean away from Harmon and Grant if it was me because DTackle is the position that I am most confident of getting a good player at the end of the 2nd. So would come down to a pass rusher or Golden. 

 

EDIT: should add if the rumours @gonzo1105 shared about Pearce sliding to the bottom of, and maybe out of, round one due to character concerns are true then unless those character concerns are of the very most serious in nature the Bills should be confident in their culture to keep him in check and sprint to the podium. 

Edited Wednesday at 10:17 AM by GunnerBill

[Pete]

Kenneth Grant

[DJB]

20 hours ago, Dablitzkrieg said:

The biggest, fattest slob that can still pressure QB, while stopping the run at DT

We should just put the Ryan brothers at DT since they fit the bill 

Edited Wednesday at 12:32 PM by DJB

[No_Matter_What]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Defensive Ends (working on the basis that Abdul Carter, James Pearce and Mike Green are already off the board)

 

In terms of how those guys rank on my big board currently:

 

1. Jahdae Barron

2. Walter Nolen

3. Princely Umanmielen

4. Nick Scourton

5. Derrick Harmon

6. Kenneth Grant

7. Matthew Golden

8. Shermar Stewart

 

Barron and Nolen are sufficiently separated from the pack as true 1sts by my grades that if either is there I'd just take them (not sure the Bills will, especially Nolen) after that, genuinely the other 6 are sufficiently clustered that I consider them in the same tier of prospect and it becomes a bit you pays your money you takes your choice. I'd probably lean away from Harmon and Grant if it was me because DTackle is the position that I am most confident of getting a good player at the end of the 2nd. So would come down to a pass rusher or Golden. 

Isn't this a longer list than you usually have for the guys who have reasonable chance to be there when the Bills pick? Granted it is too soon in the process and lot will change but still. I have a feeling that in past years you were not happy with almost any reasonable choices.

 

Also, is there a reason why you didn't list Mykel Williams and Jalon Walker among ends you expect to be off the board? They seem to be consensus top 15 picks. Or did you only mention top guys who were also Bills fits and you don't consider those two to be fits?

Edited Wednesday at 02:33 PM by No_Matter_What

[GunnerBill]

1 minute ago, No_Matter_What said:

Isn't this a longer list than you usually have for the guys who have reasonable chance to be there when the Bills pick? Granted it is too soon in the process and lot will change but still.

 

Also, is there a reason why you didn't list Mykel Williams and Jalon Walker among ends you expect to be off the board? They seem to be consensus top 15 picks. Or did you only mention top guys who were also Bills fits and you don't consider those two to be fits?

 

sorry, should have added Walker (although I do question the fit with the Bills which is why he didn't come to mind). I wouldn't take Williams at #30 even if he is still there. I have a low 2nd round grade on him. Agree he probably goes top half of the first but I see a very limited pass rusher there. 

 

I think it probably is a slightly longer shortlist than normal. Might narrow it down post FA. 

[Maine-iac]

Trade back for picks and take Alfred Collins and Mukuba in the second.  

[OldTimer1960]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

 

In terms of how those guys rank on my big board currently:

 

1. Jahdae Barron

2. Walter Nolen

3. Princely Umanmielen

4. Nick Scourton

5. Derrick Harmon

6. Kenneth Grant

7. Matthew Golden

8. Shermar Stewart

 

Barron and Nolen are sufficiently separated from the pack as true 1sts by my grades that if either is there I'd just take them (not sure the Bills will, especially Nolen) after that, genuinely the other 6 are sufficiently clustered that I consider them in the same tier of prospect and it becomes a bit you pays your money you takes your choice. I'd probably lean away from Harmon and Grant if it was me because DTackle is the position that I am most confident of getting a good player at the end of the 2nd. So would come down to a pass rusher or Golden. 

 

EDIT: should add if the rumours @gonzo1105 shared about Pearce sliding to the bottom of, and maybe out of, round one due to character concerns are true then unless those character concerns are of the very most serious in nature the Bills should be confident in their culture to keep him in check and sprint to the podium. 

Thank you for this great post.  The way you described Barron with some questions and then listed him as the top player you would select for the Bills surprised me.  Maybe I read too much into the questions in the write up.  Is he listed first mainly because the Bills have a huge need at corner or do you really rank him above the others as a pure player?

 

I think I could be happy with any of those picks, but I fear taking Golden (or any WR) will leave Bills in position that they won’t be able to address all of their glaring defensive needs at DT, DE and CB.  I understand they probably can get a decent DT at 56, but then 62 can only be 1 or the other DE or CB.  Looong wait after that to 107 in round 4.

[GunnerBill]

Just now, OldTimer1960 said:

Thank you for this great post.  The way you described Barron with some questions and then listed him as the top player you would select for the Bills surprised me.  Maybe I read too much into the questions in the write up.  Is he listed first mainly because the Bills have a huge need at corner or do you really rank him above the others as a pure player?

 

I think I could be happy with any of those picks, but I fear taking Golden (or any WR) will leave Bills in position that they won’t be able to address all of their glaring defensive needs at DT, DE and CB.  I understand they probably can get a decent DT at 56, but then 62 can only be 1 or the other DE or CB.  Looong wait after that to 107 in round 4.

 

No I love Barron. The question is a rheotircal one because it is out there in draft land. I am pretty sure he can play on the boundary. I have him about Will Johnson in my grades. That said arm measurements matter for him. If his arms come in small and that limits him a bit more to inside I'd have to move him down a bit.

[No_Matter_What]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

sorry, should have added Walker (although I do question the fit with the Bills which is why he didn't come to mind). I wouldn't take Williams at #30 even if he is still there. I have a low 2nd round grade on him. Agree he probably goes top half of the first but I see a very limited pass rusher there. 

 

I think it probably is a slightly longer shortlist than normal. Might narrow it down post FA. 

That is really interesting. Jeremiah and your guy Miller have him going at 15 to Falcons, PFF at 16 to Cards. They apparently see something that you don't (not saying they are right)

[gonzo1105]

20 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

That is really interesting. Jeremiah and your guy Miller have him going at 15 to Falcons, PFF at 16 to Cards. They apparently see something that you don't (not saying they are right)

I 100% agree with @GunnerBill on this one. You’re taking Williams as a size guy who has no pass rush repertoire at all. I have a slightly higher grade but I had him at 27 in my first mock and the team taking him is taking him with the hopes they can coach him into a pass rusher. 
 

As for Jalon Walker I wouldn’t take him either. He’s a better pass rusher but he is such a tweener to take in the first 15 picks and he just isn’t a good fit for a 4-3 in general imo. 

[Chandler#81]

None. I’d be wasting my time as it will most likely be traded with others for an established Dline star.

[GunnerBill]

43 minutes ago, gonzo1105 said:

I 100% agree with @GunnerBill on this one. You’re taking Williams as a size guy who has no pass rush repertoire at all. I have a slightly higher grade but I had him at 27 in my first mock and the team taking him is taking him with the hopes they can coach him into a pass rusher. 
 

As for Jalon Walker I wouldn’t take him either. He’s a better pass rusher but he is such a tweener to take in the first 15 picks and he just isn’t a good fit for a 4-3 in general imo. 

 

I like Walker as an edge but agree better suited to a 3-4 OLB where you can use his skillset in a more varied way. Not sure he is a hand in the dirt rusher. 

 

I think Williams will go inside the top 20. But he feels like the sort of prospect we have seen teams reach on and fail lots of times before. Looks like he should be a good pass rusher. Until he plays the game.

[NoName]

On 2/17/2025 at 5:20 PM, Goin Breakdown said:

Honestly I rely on you guys to get me informed. I'll be interested in watching some of the names that pop up here. 

Same is true for me also.  I do know one thing.  We better not trade that pick to KC and I don't care what they offer.

[BuffaloRebound]

Trade up for one of the Michigan D tackles.  Given McBeanes track record in the 1st and 2nd round, might as well use one of the extra 2nd rounders to move up.  

[Bongo]

I would like Grant or Nolen. I don’t know enough to pick between them so I’ll use the tried and true decider. I’ll go Nolen in honor of Bruce Nolan.

 

Over to you, Evan…