Let's be honest, Josh probably has 5 good seasons left

[LABILLBACKER]

On 2/16/2025 at 4:02 PM, JohnNord said:

I think the Bills know this, which is why they reset the roster last season.  It’s putting them in position for a second “window” which is currently open.  

Years 29-32 would be his physical peak.  So these next 4 seasons and the opening of the new stadium will be realistically his best chance to win a Lombardi.  Obviously he should have gone to 1 SB his first 7 year window.  I think he'll play thru his 36 yr old season then hang it up.  So we're looking at 4+4.  His last 4 will likely not result in any SB appearances unless the organization builds a "Rams like" team they gave Stafford.  Josh has taken too many hits to make it to 40.

[LABILLBACKER]

7 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

I'm with Steve Tasker on this.   You consistently raise and maintain the roster level every year (this is "the process"), get to the playoffs every year, and, given the inherent randomness of  single elimination tournaments, your play will bring a SB at some/multiple points depending on how things break in one year or the next ; ie; keeping swinging the bat with a great, attractive team talent/  culture mix and you will hit the ball.   

 

Along the way, win (and celebrate) 3 out of 4 games consistently (the value of this element is becoming lost, esp on this board); for me that is a successful program which will also last, and produce tournament wins along the way.   Esp in WNY where your franchise had better have positive attributes (SB shot every year, great team culture/chemistry) to offset the downsides (unwarranted IMO, but that seem to still exist) that FAs see in the area. 

 

I don't allow the media to corrupt me into believing that the only measure of success is winning the year end tournament.. what about all the success and wins along the way?   When your team is finally this freakin good, why be a fan if you can't relish the journey just as much as the destination?  

First of all colleges have tournaments, not the NFL.  Secondly too many fans are over-relishing the journey,  while convincing themselves the destination just isn't as important anymore. 

[Buffalo716]

18 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Years 29-32 would be his physical peak.  So these next 4 seasons and the opening of the new stadium will be realistically his best chance to win a Lombardi.  Obviously he should have gone to 1 SB his first 7 year window.  I think he'll play thru his 36 yr old season then hang it up.  So we're looking at 4+4.  His last 4 will likely not result in any SB appearances unless the organization builds a "Rams like" team they gave Stafford.  Josh has taken too many hits to make it to 40.

He wasn't even in the top five for getting hit this year.. Tom Brady is the most sacked quarterback of all time and he played the 42

Edited Tuesday at 08:56 PM by Buffalo716

[LABILLBACKER]

18 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

He wasn't even in the top five for getting hit this year.. Tom Brady is the most sacked quarterback of all time and he played the 42

I'm not talking about sacks. I'm talking about the hits he takes on designed runs, scrambles and tush pushes. Eventually that "expected" part of his game will be minimized as he ages. He'll need to fine tune his skills as a pocket passer. But he could very well play as long as Ben.  That's not out of the realm. I just don't see 40 with the hits & mileage he's already put on that engine. 

[Buffalo716]

4 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I'm not talking about sacks. I'm talking about the hits he takes on designed runs, scrambles and tush pushes. Eventually that "expected" part of his game will be minimized as he ages. He'll need to fine tune his skills as a pocket passer. But he could very well play as long as Ben.  That's not out of the realm. I just don't see 40 with the hits & mileage he's already put on that engine. 

Brett favre had a million hits too because he used to run around and scramble and throw on the run .. Patrick mahomes and Justin Herbert take hits inside and outside the pocket

 

And Brett has the iron Man streak which Josh currently has for active... Every single NFL player is playing dinged up and nicked up 

 

Josh has avoided serious injury and can take small punishments better than most 

 

That actually says to me he's more in line for a long career if he wants to play that long.. if he wants to play till 35 and retire healthy he could .. with his toughness and current iron Man streak which he values he could easily play into his late 30s 

 

The way he plays the game reminds me of like Brett favre with the childlike passion.. that keeps you young

 

 

Edited Tuesday at 09:24 PM by Buffalo716

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

I'd like to see the Bills phase away from using Josh every time in short yardage situations. Those hits add up, especially in the playoffs when our O-line was getting caved in and Josh tried to muscle through it. 

 

The Chiefs haven't used Mahomes on a sneak in years (even since he was injured on a sneak).

 

The Ravens tend to use direct snaps to Andrews on tush-push situations. 

[Doc Brown]

On 2/16/2025 at 7:21 PM, Ya Digg? said:

So in a year where EVERYONE said they would be rebuilding, would be no better than 3rd in their division, would be lucky to make the playoffs…turn that into dominant saying the division, make the AFC championship game, and Josh wins MVP. A year in which they far exceeded expectations…

 

You feel this low about the team??

 

 

They were victims of their own success.  The Chiefs game was a stark reminder of how the defense and coaching continues to let us down against a very beatable Chiefs team.

31 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said:

He wasn't even in the top five for getting hit this year.. Tom Brady is the most sacked quarterback of all time and he played the 42

Every injury he's had over the last two years have been on either QB designed runs or scrambles.

[Buffalo716]

34 minutes ago, Doc Brown said:

They were victims of their own success.  The Chiefs game was a stark reminder of how the defense and coaching continues to let us down against a very beatable Chiefs team.

Every injury he's had over the last two years have been on either QB designed runs or scrambles.

Statistically most quarterback injuries happen inside the pocket.. it is a lot more dangerous getting hit static in the pocket... By huge men at fast speeds... With bodies around your knees and ankles 

 

Then it is outside the pocket around more corners and safeties... Even Josh is bigger than your typical NFL linebacker now.. he's not bigger than defensive ends and defensive tackles who collapse the pocket 

 

Sure, has Josh gotten nicked up? Sure.. every quarterback gets nicked up.. Patrick mahomes is hobbling six games in to every season lol he's a professional football player there's a difference between hurt and injured... He gets nicked up he does not get seriously injured 

 

His iron Man streak shows that.. Brett favre is the NFL iron Man and he like Josh scrambled and ran around and took tons and tons and tons of hits.. but like Josh, he knows how to protect himself from severe injury

 

Josh hurts his hands and his fingers.. he gets cuts on his elbows.. or rips off a fingernail... Hes really good at protecting himself from catastrophic injuries like knee or head injuries 

 

When he leaves the pocket he's bigger than everybody trying to tackle him... The defensive players on the boundary don't want anything to do with Josh Allen 99% of the time and statistically it is safer on the boundary than inside the pocket

 

A decade long study showed:

This study yielded many findings, but among them were two key observations: 1) Run Frequency didn’t reliably predict QB injuries and 2) quarterbacks that run most are injured less frequently than the NFL QB average.

 

10.4% is the NFL average percent of games missed do to injury for a NFL qb

 

The quarterbacks are grouped via their run frequency... Josh Allen is in the highest category of running quarterbacks.. which has an injury rate of 9.5%.. which is less than the NFL average of 10.4%

 

So there's a lot of factors that go into injuries.. but just being a running quarterback is not the biggest one... Because there's no correlation between running the most and the most injuries

 

Even the Tom Brady statue group has an injury rate of 8.5.. just one percentage below Josh Allen... So the Allen group and the Brady group are both below the NFL average for injuries... But most quarterback injuries do happen inside the pocket 

 

Knockdowns: 1 injury every 57.1 plays (90 total injuries on 5,135 plays for a 1.8% injury rate)

Sacks: 1 injury every 75.1 plays (52 total injuries on 3,903 for a 1.3% injury rate)

Scrambles: 1 injury every 106.7 plays (23 total injuries on 2,455 plays for a 0.9% injury rate)

Designed runs: 1 injury for every 174.2 plays (11 total injuries on 1,916 plays for an 0.6% injury rate)

 

Statistically a designed run is the safest play for quarterback.. and scrambles is the second safest

Edited Tuesday at 10:01 PM by Buffalo716

[jaybeezee]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Years 29-32 would be his physical peak.  So these next 4 seasons and the opening of the new stadium will be realistically his best chance to win a Lombardi.  Obviously he should have gone to 1 SB his first 7 year window.  I think he'll play thru his 36 yr old season then hang it up.  So we're looking at 4+4.  His last 4 will likely not result in any SB appearances unless the organization builds a "Rams like" team they gave Stafford.  Josh has taken too many hits to make it to 40.

Been saying this for the last 3 years now. Wasting away his prime years with a coach and GM that still dont understand how to put together a competent roster. Too bad Pegula is too stupid to understand what he has in Josh and how guys like #17 are generational and dont just show up in the draft. I cant count how many teams now thought they were drafting the next JA17. SF, Tenesee, Indy, etc...

[TheFunPolice]

I'm going to be 100%, totally, completely, and (honestly) a little uncomfortably honest with you. 

 

Guys like Brady and Manning skewed fans ideas of how long QBs can play. Manning only retired because his neck gave out. Brady only retired because his body started to give out and he barely made it through his last season. The guy looked like he weighed 150 pounds by the end. He knew he was done. But both of those guys were football, football, football almost at all costs. 

 

Not everyone is wired that way, nor is it realistic. For every Brady there are going to be a bunch of guys who made bank and want to retire somewhat earlier in order to minimize long term pain and maximize long term health while enjoying time with family. Hard to say where Josh will be on that in the future with a wife and (possibly) a family. 

 

That said, I think we have 7 excellent "Josh Allen experience seasons" left, which admittedly isn't a lot of swings at the prize. He'll turn 29 this May. 

 

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

 

Once he hits his 35 or 36 year old season he'll still be good, but some of the dynamic play we've seen and crazy athleticism just won't be the same. He'll still be great for 3-4 more seasons, IMO, but he'll look different out there than he does now

 

36

37

38

 

So that brings us to 10 seasons of top QB level play, with 7 more elite level seasons. All of this is also dependent on how long he wants to play and avoiding major injuries. 

 

Josh does have excellent skills as a passer, so he doesn't rely as much on pure athleticism. But there are no guarantees. Cam Newton was an incredible player and almost overnight it was gone due to injury that he just never recovered from. 

 

This team has to seize opportunity while it's there. 

 

Edited Tuesday at 10:36 PM by TheFunPolice

[damj]

 

🙄

[ProcessTruster]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

First of all colleges have tournaments, not the NFL.  Secondly too many fans are over-relishing the journey,  while convincing themselves the destination just isn't as important anymore. 

Are you kidding me?  The NFL playoffs are absolutely a clone of college tournaments.  eg. the NFL playoffs are no different structurally than a college basketball conference tournament.   They have regular season champion and then a tournament winner; they are (or at least they were for decades) two seperate things.  Winning your conference W-L standings (was for decades) a big big deal.   The tournament was just an add -on.  

 

Colleges had division, conference structures with real rivalries followed by single elimination conference tournaments long before the NFL started to.   Where do you think the NFL got it from?? 

 

See, after 20 years of suck, I love it all, every f ing game this team wins.   You guys just sit on your hands for 4 months waiting for the tournament.  Nothing else matters to you.  Sad, really.   

Edited Tuesday at 11:12 PM by ProcessTruster

[MrEpsYtown]

I would say more. At some point when he loses some athleticism he probably reinvents himself and winds up being late career Big Ben. 

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, ProcessTruster said:

Are you kidding me?  The NFL playoffs are absolutely a clone of college tournaments.  eg. the NFL playoffs are no different structurally than a college basketball conference tournament.   They have regular season champion and then a tournament winner; they are (or at least they were for decades) two seperate things.  Winning your conference W-L standings (was for decades) a big big deal.   The tournament was just an add -on.  

 

Colleges had division, conference structures with real rivalries followed by single elimination conference tournaments long before the NFL started to.   Where do you think the NFL got it from?? 

 

See, after 20 years of suck, I love it all, every f ing game this team wins.   You guys just sit on your hands for 4 months waiting for the tournament.  Nothing else matters to you.  Sad, really.   

Ok, I'll bite....So what 16 seed are the Chiefs playing every year?

[ProcessTruster]

14 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Ok, I'll bite....So what 16 seed are the Chiefs playing every year?

obviously given the nature of the sport you can't have a 64 team tournament with the 1 playing the 16 and so on from there.   NFL seems to be getting there, though.  within 10 years you'll prob have maybe 40 teams (adding in Goodell's non-US franchises), plus maybe  a 20+ team tournament that lasts for 2+ months.   that will further cheapen the regular season and put all the marbles into the tournament (exactly the way the NCAA has done it, and in the process pretty much ruined the conference structure/team rivalries/bowl importance, etc. ).   It's coming.   

 

The networks and therefore the league want everything centered on the tournament, esp the last couple games; outside of a few key 4pm game matchups during season the rest is just noise to them from a ratings/revenue standpoint. 

 

I just take a much broader view of the sport.  To each their own I guess. 

Edited Wednesday at 03:00 PM by ProcessTruster

[Shaw66]

Elway and Big Ben say hello.

[Kelly to Allen]

16 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Elway and Big Ben say hello.

Exactly. Elway and big Ben, even favre took much more violent hits and more often and played well into their late 30s.... Same with Steve Young and Staubach.

 

This question should be asked of mahomes who is Allen's doppelganger 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 2/17/2025 at 3:01 AM, transplantbillsfan said:

Let's be honest, Big Ben notoriously took HORRIBLE care of himself and had great seasons in his age 36 and 38 season...

 

So no... you're probably wrong.

Big Ben was more of a traditional pocket passer then Josh is . 

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Big Ben was more of a traditional pocket passer then Josh is . 

Not in his early years.  He scrambled often. And Josh moves in the pocket in ways that are quite similar to Roethlisberger. 

 

The real point is that guys as talented as Josh generally do not hit a wall as early as people are suggesting. Hall of Fame quarterbacks play into their late thirties.

[DCofNC]

On 2/16/2025 at 6:39 PM, Billzgobowlin said:

Top end QBs last till at least 40.  Qbs that tend to rely on running only are early to mid 30s

There has been 1 guy who’s been anywhere near good at 40.  So that’s a nice dream, but JA probably has to the mid 30s w his style.