Let's be honest, Josh probably has 5 good seasons left

[GunnerBill]

Let's be honest.... a guess is a guess. 

 

He could last 5 years, he could last 10 years, he could have a serious injury in the season opener and never be the same again. We just have no idea. It's not something I spend time worrying about. 

[BillsPride12]

1 hour ago, Steptide said:

And I think they'd tell you that there is, but I think their philosophy needs to change a bit. 

My biggest fear is they continue to use the same philosophies and strategies they have used since they've been here.  I'm not saying I want them fired but I really hope they can evolve and re-evaluate some of their philosophies because they just have not been able to build a true championship caliber team yet.  

[BuffaloMatt]

oh boy. . .one year at a time

[ddaryl]

Josh doesn't take a lot of sacks and he has been better at avoiding contact. 

I see no reason that Josh cannot perform at a high rate of play, into his 40s, but one catostrophic injury changes everything 

[Roundybout]

Matt Stafford is still a Pro Bowler/borderline All-Pro at 37. I think we will be okay. 

[chongli]

11 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

Bean has been awful in the 1st and often 2nd rounds.  Totally agree.  Trade those picks for vets.  Bean has done very well at getting the contributors that you would need to pare with stars in the middle rounds.  Keep those picks. 

 

Let's not give up on Beane. We build through the draft and don't mortgage our future. Give him a chance to get it right. If we can't trust Beane to draft well in the first two rounds, then we need a new GM.

[Magox]

15 hours ago, Steptide said:

I don't want to sound like Debbie downer here, but if we're being honest with ourselves, he'll be 29 this year and probably has 5 or 6 good years left. Typically, qbs start to decline around their mid 30s. Hopefully he doesn't and plays till he's 40, who knows. 

 

Not trying to beat a dead horse here, but the bills have to have some urgency here when it comes to winning a superbowl. My confidence is so low in beane drafting guys at this point, that I almost don't care if he trades most of our picks away to bring in proven guys. Obviously this won't happen, and I know beane has drafted some really good players but, I'm sorry I think we're past the point of being able to develop guys from the draft and wait 2 or 3 years and see. Anyways just my Sunday thoughts, need some free agent and superbowl urgency this season 

 

I think its a bit fatalistic to believe that Josh only has 5 years left.  Yes, it is definitely within the realm but I think as long as he takes care of his body and doesn't face any devastating injuries he should have another 8 - 12 years of highly efficient QB play.   I do agree from a physical standpoint meaning his running ability and quickness will most likely peak in the next 2-3 years, but as long as his mental processing improves he should be able to have a lot more good years provided his body holds up.

 

With that said, I do agree with the central crux of your post which is that there should be a more intense profound sense of urgency from this team and that should be reflected in their FA/draft decisions.   Personally, and I don't think I'm alone with this thinking that for me it was always assumed since 2020 that the question of the Bills winning a Super bowl was not a matter of "if" but "when".    But we've now gone through 5 straight years of knocking on the doorstep without getting in and Josh is going to be turning 30 after this next season.   

 

I don't have any evidence to back this up but I also have this profound sense that Beane/McD and inside the organization are beginning to feel that pressure as well.  Honestly, I think they should begin to start moving their chips into the middle and start making those decisions.   It would be a tragedy if this organization doesn't win with a true Unicorn in Allen at the helm.

[MikePJ76]

15 hours ago, Steptide said:

I don't want to sound like Debbie downer here, but if we're being honest with ourselves, he'll be 29 this year and probably has 5 or 6 good years left. Typically, qbs start to decline around their mid 30s. Hopefully he doesn't and plays till he's 40, who knows. 

 

Not trying to beat a dead horse here, but the bills have to have some urgency here when it comes to winning a superbowl. My confidence is so low in beane drafting guys at this point, that I almost don't care if he trades most of our picks away to bring in proven guys. Obviously this won't happen, and I know beane has drafted some really good players but, I'm sorry I think we're past the point of being able to develop guys from the draft and wait 2 or 3 years and see. Anyways just my Sunday thoughts, need some free agent and superbowl urgency this season 

trading all your picks away is the fastest way to become a bad organization

Edited Monday at 02:55 PM by MikePJ76

[zow2]

Do we even know if he wants to play beyond mid-30's?  I know he desperately wants to get Buffalo a SB parade.  But he might be one of these QBs who feels fulfilled with football and wants to play golf, be a dad, do other stuff while he's relatively young.  We know he gets beat up during the season and doesn't say much about it.

[Bills aPHILLYate]

2 hours ago, Einstein said:

You won’t find a bigger Josh Allen fan than me.

 

I'm 6ft 230lbs and I haven't even started my off season conditioning of continuous happy hrs and buffets

 

I plan to measure in at 6'3 245 at the combine 

 

I could probably watch games during the season at 250 but I don't want to take away from my speed

[CincyBillsFan]

12 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

Let's be honest.

 

What you have there is a guess. 

 

Some QBs decline much earlier, as Cam Newton did. Others much later, as Tom Brady did. Within the middle area where most are, there's huge variability and a lot of it depends on injuries. Peyton Manning could have gone another year or two at a tremendously high level if not for the arm injury. Stafford's playing as well as ever at 37. Five or six years is plucked out of the air.

 

Will his run game drop off probably around then? Yeah, maybe. But he's got the same ability to move in the pocket as someone like Brady did and Brady stayed 100% relevant way into his 40s. The way he played this year is something he can most maintain, very possibly for a long time.

 

Being honest doesn't mean you're correct. It only means that your opinion is deeply felt.

 

Urgency winning a Super Bowl? Absolutely. As they have every year. They should in the future have as much or more. We were probably one play away this year, damn it. They need to improve. Every year. They're aware of this.

Given what we've seen from Allen on the availability front through his first 7 years I suspect that he is looking more like a unicorn then a dog from a longevity standpoint.  IMO 5 years would be the absolute minimum that he's at his best physically, 7 - 8 years seems more likley with a gradual fall off after that.

[Matt_In_NH]

I look forward to see what happens the next 5 years.  And then all the years after that when Josh just sucks I guess?

[BillsVet]

Let's be honest...people create their own anxiety/crises better now than at any point in human history.  

 

 

[Orlando Buffalo]

Josh is as likely to be a top 10 QB at 40 as he is to be bad before 34. He won't be able to play as reckless as he did 3 years ago but he has already shown that. Basically we will stop doing the tush push with him but maybe do it with a fullback.

[oldmanfan]

17 hours ago, Steptide said:

I don't want to sound like Debbie downer here, but if we're being honest with ourselves, he'll be 29 this year and probably has 5 or 6 good years left. Typically, qbs start to decline around their mid 30s. Hopefully he doesn't and plays till he's 40, who knows. 

 

Not trying to beat a dead horse here, but the bills have to have some urgency here when it comes to winning a superbowl. My confidence is so low in beane drafting guys at this point, that I almost don't care if he trades most of our picks away to bring in proven guys. Obviously this won't happen, and I know beane has drafted some really good players but, I'm sorry I think we're past the point of being able to develop guys from the draft and wait 2 or 3 years and see. Anyways just my Sunday thoughts, need some free agent and superbowl urgency this season 

If you don’t want to sound like a Debbie Downer, then don’t sound like a Debbie Downer.

[Steptide]

3 hours ago, BillsPride12 said:

My biggest fear is they continue to use the same philosophies and strategies they have used since they've been here.  I'm not saying I want them fired but I really hope they can evolve and re-evaluate some of their philosophies because they just have not been able to build a true championship caliber team yet.  

This. 100%. Think about how amazing some of these bills teams have been since Allen got here, and yet only 2 afc championship game appearances, one of which the bills had their a$$es handed to them. They have to rethink their draft/free agency philosophy. Their current philosophy works great when you have a 24 year old qb who can grow into his roll and the team can grow year after year, but it's time to start putting the pedal to the metal so to speak 

Edited Monday at 05:08 PM by Steptide

[BeastMaster]

It's possible, but if Josh and the Bills are smart (I believe they are) they are coaching him from a run alot QB that takes hits to a run and take hits only in crucial situations QB, and hopefully eventually a more cerebral QB that only uses the run even less because he can almost always solve the defense with his arm or throwing the ball away.

[Mikie2times]

Shoot him behind the barn and tell the kids he ran away. 

Edited Monday at 05:24 PM by Mikie2times

[SirAndrew]

I think this question depends upon what type of team they build around him. He seems like the type of QB who could be great until his 40’s, but older QB’s always seem to be on teams that had good rosters. Elway, Brady, and Manning all had a lot of help in their twilight years. Josh won’t be able to be Superman with his arm and legs. 

Edited Monday at 05:42 PM by SirAndrew

[mushypeaches]

18 hours ago, Steptide said:

I don't want to sound like Debbie downer here, but if we're being honest with ourselves, he'll be 29 this year and probably has 5 or 6 good years left. Typically, qbs start to decline around their mid 30s. Hopefully he doesn't and plays till he's 40, who knows. 

 

Not trying to beat a dead horse here, but the bills have to have some urgency here when it comes to winning a superbowl. My confidence is so low in beane drafting guys at this point, that I almost don't care if he trades most of our picks away to bring in proven guys. Obviously this won't happen, and I know beane has drafted some really good players but, I'm sorry I think we're past the point of being able to develop guys from the draft and wait 2 or 3 years and see. Anyways just my Sunday thoughts, need some free agent and superbowl urgency this season 

 

Jesus H Christ, better draft his replacement this year.  

SMFH