The overvaluation of Wide receivers

[FireChans]

Just now, The Jokeman said:

and where has Justin Jefferson gotten the Vikings to in the playoffs?

Um he just helped make Sam Darnold look competent for 17 games and had the second best record in the NFC and made the playoffs?

 

You know, the Sam Darnold who was 21-35 as a starter before last year? The Sam Darnold with a career TD/INT ratio of 63-56 prior to last year.

 

He went 14-3, threw more passing TDs than the MVP, and had a TD/INT ratio of 35 to 12.

 

you may not have heard.

[The Jokeman]

Just now, FireChans said:

Um he just helped make Sam Darnold look competent for 17 games and had the second best record in the NFC and made the playoffs?

 

You know, the Sam Darnold who was 21-35 as a starter before last year? The Sam Darnold with a career TD/INT ratio of 63-56 prior to last year.

 

He went 14-3, threw more passing TDs than the MVP, and had a TD/INT ratio of 35 to 12.

 

you may not have heard.

and again where has he gotten his team in the playoffs? Regular season is great but everyone crying for a WR is claiming we aren't doing enough in the playoffs. 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

Again, the two most recent dynasties in 9 out of their last 10 Super bowl winning years didn't have a true blue chip #1 WR.   I don't care what anyone has to say, that speaks volumes

I think this analysis is also faulty.

 

No one has ever won a Super Bowl with a QB from Wyoming. We should trade Josh for JJ McCarthy because Michigan QB’s have a better track record.

 

You were closer to the mark with “every team is different.”

 

I don’t think the 2007 Pats lost because they had Randy Moss. Do you?

 

I will say, my take that had emerged earlier this year is that the dead zone of  WR6-20ish are not worth paying. You have to be a Chase, Jefferson etc to be worth paying in the market for the Bills. I’d rather pay those dudes $30M than a Shakir, who is a nice piece but that’s it, $20M. 

3 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

and again where has he gotten his team in the playoffs? Regular season is great but everyone crying for a WR is claiming we aren't doing enough in the playoffs. 

Where has AJ Brown gotten his team in the playoffs?

[Magox]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I think this analysis is also faulty.

 

No one has ever won a Super Bowl with a QB from Wyoming. We should trade Josh for JJ McCarthy because Michigan QB’s have a better track record.

 

You were closer to the mark with “every team is different.”

 

I don’t think the 2007 Pats lost because they had Randy Moss. Do you?

 

I will say, my take that had emerged earlier this year is that the dead zone of  WR6-20ish are not worth paying. You have to be a Chase, Jefferson etc to be worth paying in the market for the Bills. I’d rather pay those dudes $30M than a Shakir, who is a nice piece but that’s it, $20M. 

Where has AJ Brown gotten his team in the playoffs?

 

I'm not even sure what point you are trying to make.  No QB has ever won that came from Wyoming?  I think what you are saying is that because the Chiefs and Patriots didn't have blue chip WR's that this also applies to the QB position?  

 

There is a huge discrepancy in the value of a WR and QB and what they mean to their teams success.   And it's not a faulty comparison as you stated in fact it's entirely true.    Even if you want to pretend that the Patriots won with Randy Moss, that would have been 9 out of 11 wins would have been without a blue chip WR.   It's clear, you don't need a blue chip WR to compete and win a Super bowl.  This isn't an opinion out of right field, it's a certifiable undeniable fact.   Patriots won many Super bowls without one, and the Chiefs made a conscience decision to not extend the most dynamic receiver in the league after winning a Super bowl with him on the roster and went on to win 2 more Super bowls and went to a third one without him or replacing him with a  #1 WR.

 

Again, this isn't an argument to say that WR's aren't important, it's an argument to say that you can have a collection of highly competent receivers that fill different roles that fit the scheme of their offense and still have tremendous success.   

 

The two most recent dynasties when creating their roster construction made conscience decisions to not go after expensive blue chip WR's in FA and in the Chiefs case to even let a top 2 WR at that time just walk.

 

I think WR's as a whole are overvalued, by a lot.   My preference if I were a GM would be to take more of a moneyball approach to the WR position.    Get a bunch of guys that are good at filling certain roles, spend money on the O line and defense, protect the QB, have a good ground attack and have your all world QB make the right reads and plays.

[MikePJ76]

15 hours ago, DCofNC said:

His attitude towards money and his brother’s chirping in his ear makes me VERY concerned his only goal is to get paid big early and coast off into the sunset.  I don’t need a guy who won’t block and wants to negotiate in public before his contract is up, playing the social media game already.  That’s Diggs 2.0, I’m good.

Yea thats the rub.

 

If he is going to change who he is and become a finger pointer, he can leave today.

 

The Bills should never again with this staff allow a player like that on the team.  

 

We never need to see a tweet that says "You Sure" again.

Edited Monday at 02:53 PM by MikePJ76

[Jrb1979]

18 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I'm not even sure what point you are trying to make.  No QB has ever won that came from Wyoming?  I think what you are saying is that because the Chiefs and Patriots didn't have blue chip WR's that this also applies to the QB position?  

 

There is a huge discrepancy in the value of a WR and QB and what they mean to their teams success.   And it's not a faulty comparison as you stated in fact it's entirely true.    Even if you want to pretend that the Patriots won with Randy Moss, that would have been 9 out of 11 wins would have been without a blue chip WR.   It's clear, you don't need a blue chip WR to compete and win a Super bowl.  This isn't an opinion out of right field, it's a certifiable undeniable fact.   Patriots won many Super bowls without one, and the Chiefs made a conscience decision to not extend the most dynamic receiver in the league after winning a Super bowl with him on the roster and went on to win 2 more Super bowls and went to a third one without him or replacing him with a  #1 WR.

 

Again, this isn't an argument to say that WR's aren't important, it's an argument to say that you can have a collection of highly competent receivers that fill different roles that fit the scheme of their offense and still have tremendous success.   

 

The two most recent dynasties when creating their roster construction made conscience decisions to not go after expensive blue chip WR's in FA and in the Chiefs case to even let a top 2 WR at that time just walk.

 

I think WR's as a whole are overvalued, by a lot.   My preference if I were a GM would be to take more of a moneyball approach to the WR position.    Get a bunch of guys that are good at filling certain roles, spend money on the O line and defense, protect the QB, have a good ground attack and have your all world QB make the right reads and plays.

3 of the last 5 Super Bowl champs other than KC all had that blue chip WR. Tampa, LA and Philly all spent big money on the WR position and won a Super Bowl.  

[Magox]

6 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

3 of the last 5 Super Bowl champs other than KC all had that blue chip WR. Tampa, LA and Philly all spent big money on the WR position and won a Super Bowl.  

The argument isn’t that you can’t win a Super Bowl with one but that you can win without one.

[Jrb1979]

7 minutes ago, Magox said:

The argument isn’t that you can’t win a Super Bowl with one but that you can win without one.

https://www.thefranchisetag.co.uk/articles/can-you-win-the-superbowl-without-a-wr1

 

Overall, the data shows that you don’t need to have a “WR1” to win a Superbowl. However, if you don’t have one you need to have an elite quarterback/tight end combo.

 

What that tells me is you need at least one top offensive weapon to win.  Very rare does an "everyone eats" offense wins a Super Bowl 

[FireChans]

30 minutes ago, Magox said:

I think what you are saying is that because the Chiefs and Patriots didn't have blue chip WR's that this also applies to the QB position?  

What I am trying to say is that outside of two dynasties, SB winners are so rare that drawing ANY sweeping conclusion because of what has or hasn't happened is kind of silly.

 

Like "the Pats and Chiefs won most of their Superbowls without a #1 WR." That's true. Does that mean a #1 WR would not help you win a Superbowl?  No. AJ Brown just helped Philly win one and got to two with him.  Do we think if the Bills traded a 7th round pick for Justin Jefferson tomorrow, their SB odds for 2025 would get better, get worse or stay the same?  I think we all agree get better.

 

33 minutes ago, Magox said:

It's clear, you don't need a blue chip WR to compete and win a Super bowl.  This isn't an opinion out of right field, it's a certifiable undeniable fact.   Patriots won many Super bowls without one, and the Chiefs made a conscience decision to not extend the most dynamic receiver in the league after winning a Super bowl with him on the roster and went on to win 2 more Super bowls and went to a third one without him or replacing him with a  #1 WR.

Yeah, "not needing" vs "don't want" is the debate here. The Chiefs and Pats also competed for multiple Superbowls with HoF coaches, maybe the best two to ever do it, and HoF QBs, maybe the best two to ever do it, and HoF TE's, maybe the best two to ever do it.

 

So I agree with your argument. The history is very clear, if you have a arguably top 2 HC, TE, and QB of all time, you don't need a traditional #1 WR to win a Superbowl. I'm not sure we have those other 3 ingredients, maybe QB.

 

What we do know however is that Tom Brady posted one of the best years in his career in 2020, with maybe the best WR group of his career, including a traditional #1 in Mike Evans. After posting one of the worst years of his career and an early, disappointing playoff exit just the year before. Of course, he won a SB that year as well. So Brady did, 100%, benefit from having a stable of great WRs and it culminated in his 7th ring.

38 minutes ago, Magox said:

I think WR's as a whole are overvalued, by a lot.   My preference if I were a GM would be to take more of a moneyball approach to the WR position.    Get a bunch of guys that are good at filling certain roles, spend money on the O line and defense, protect the QB, have a good ground attack and have your all world QB make the right reads and plays.

So I think there's a clear distinction between the Bills and the league.

 

For teams like the Bills, who have an all-world QB, sure, having a superstar WR is nice but is much less needed for your all-world QB to be all-world.

 

For the rest of the league who don't have that level of guy at QB, a superstar at WR may be the difference between a Dak Prescott playing good enough for 8-9 vs 13-4. It's the difference between Tua winning 8-9 games or winning 11 and making the playoffs.

 

It's why the Bengals debate is so interesting. If Joe Burrow is really that dude on Mahomes' and Allen's level, IMO, he shouldn't need 2 great WR's. It would be nice, but team-building won't allow it.

 

We all saw what Brock Purdy looked like this season with Aiyuk out and a washed Deebo. They went from back to back conference championships to missing the playoffs and picking like 10th?

 

So an adjusted take that I would put forward to you would be "WR's are overvalued by the rest of the league in comparison to a team like the Bills." To which, I would completely agree. We don't have a Sam Darnold under center who likely needs JJ, Addison, Hockenson etc etc to play at a high level.

 

All that being said, I think there is a floor to that take. We simply cannot show up to another camp with the same caliber of WR that we did in 2024. A WR group that we needed to ship out a valuable pick to try to salvage in October.

[SoTier]

19 hours ago, FireChans said:

What you are missing is that having good to great WR’s helps the most important position on the field.

 

Despite Barkley and Henry having career years, in both of their team’s final games of the year, they didn’t do much. It came down to the QB passing.

 

Does anyone think Jalen Hurts is a good enough QB to play in 2 SB’s in 3 years without an absolute elite WR1 and WR2?

 

Does anyone think Tua is a playoff QB without Tyreek and Waddle?

 

Does anyone think Brock Purdy is a multi conference championship QB without his gaggle of weapons?

 

Sure, the OL matters a lot too, but that’s a 5 position group so their numbers get spread out. But LTs and to a lesser extent RT’s get big bucks too.

 

The other thing is efficiency. Jamar Chase had a great 9.8 yard per target. Barkley and Henry had 6.0 and 6.1 yards per touch.

 

You are quite literally getting almost 40% more yards just THROWING AT CHASE, not even necessarily completions, than handing off or completing passes to backs. 
 

 

 

What you are missing is that great QBs help any WR with a modicum of talent far more than a great WR can help a great QB.  It's different with young or less talented QBs, but Allen is a great veteran.  He can get by without having a world-class speed WR.  What a great QB needs most is protection and weapons, and an OL that is great at pass and run blocking is the more important of the two because it makes a great running game possible.  The exact nature of the weapons on passing plays -- WRs, TEs or RBs -- doesn't matter much if they do different things.  A reasonably good boundary WR like Cooper is fine for the Bills as they are currently constructed.  A better (ie, more expensive) WR like Higgins would be a luxury.

 

16 hours ago, BillsVet said:

 

When is the last time the Bills under McBeane acquired/drafted "nasty" DLinemen?

 

8 off-seasons and aside from perhaps drafting Rousseau and signing Von Miller the DLines they've built have not held up when it mattered most.  It's mostly lunchpail types who underwhelm.    

 

Point is, when McBeane tell you their solutions are just that, I'd be skeptical it's not repackaging what hasn't worked.   Because I'm not convinced they're that good evaluating talent and will spin the wheel to ensure it winds up on "we need more defense."  Which invariably means, the offense will get by with lesser expenditures.  

 

Your narrative isn't correct. It's not like the Bills haven't tried to draft a game wrecker DLer.  They drafted 4 DLers in rounds 1 and 2 between 2019 and 2021.

• DT Ed Oliver at #9 in 2019
• DE AJ Epenesa in #54 in 2020
• DE Gregory Rousseau at #30 and DE Boogie Basham at #61 in 2021

Basham was a bust, but Oliver and Rousseau are both good DLers and Epenesa is decent.  Where the Bills draft at the end of rounds, the fail rate for draft picks is greater than 50%.  it's hard to find many great pass rushers there because most pass rushers are gobbled up in the top ten spots of most drafts.

 

 

13 hours ago, harmonkillebrew said:

you're probably right that WRs are overvalued in terms of cap space. They're great entertainers, but probably not as important to winning a SB.

But it also doesn't mean the Bills shouldn't get one to help get them over the hump. Dline and secondary are definitely the priority. But a weapon on the outside would just make that O that much more balanced and harder to defend. In this league you can't just keep trotting out the same stuff each season. DCoordinators learn your tendencies and players and adjust 

he's a threat to break it every time he gets the ball and it really set the tone for a few games. Throw in his ball security, durability, and pass catching.

Bills have not had a RB like this in years. I don't want to lose it. 

 

I would love for the Bills to keep Cook, but if it comes down to acquiring a game wrecker DE and letting Cook walk, then it's "C'ya, Jimbo".

 

[Green Lightning]

We scored the most points in the league with meh receivers. I don't deny that when you need one play by a special player, we don't seem to have it, and that can be the difference in winning a championship. That goes for both sides of the ball. But all in, once again, defense and smart situational awareness won out. I'd rather drop big coin on a D stud than a WR. 

[FireChans]

15 minutes ago, SoTier said:

What you are missing is that great QBs help any WR with a modicum of talent far more than a great WR can help a great QB.  It's different with young or less talented QBs, but Allen is a great veteran.  He can get by without having a world-class speed WR.  What a great QB needs most is protection and weapons, and an OL that is great at pass and run blocking is the more important of the two because it makes a great running game possible.  The exact nature of the weapons on passing plays -- WRs, TEs or RBs -- doesn't matter much if they do different things.  A reasonably good boundary WR like Cooper is fine for the Bills as they are currently constructed.  A better (ie, more expensive) WR like Higgins would be a luxury.

That's not the point of the OP though.

 

His point is the LEAGUE is overvaluing WR's. Which imo is clearly not true.

 

The Dolphins traded a huge amount of assets for Tyreek and gave him big money. They made the playoffs in back to back years for the first time since 2001.

 

So was he overvalued or properly valued?

 

The Niners with Brock Purdy went from back to back NFCCG and a SB appearance to 6-11 in part because Aiyuk got hurt and Deebo got old/washed.

 

Were his WR's overvalued or properly valued?

 

The Eagles with Jalen Hurts went from 9-8 and a WC team to 14-3 (SB appearance), 11-6 (WC team) 14-3 (SB win) after trading for AJ Brown and paying him TWICE.

 

Was he overvalued or properly valued?

 

So no. Just because Josh Allen and Mahomes can make things work with relatively weak WR's doesn't mean that WR's are overrated league-round. It just means we are lucky to have 1 of the 2 guys in football who can get by without them. And like I said earlier, maybe because we have those guys, we don't need to chase a Higgins and throw him $30M. But imo we also can't take for granted Josh's greatness and give him bargain basement tools to make hay with.

 

This take is a first cousin of "Why don't the Dolphins just make Tua as good as Josh Allen, are they stupid?"

Edited Monday at 04:00 PM by FireChans

[Ya Digg?]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

 

I'm not even sure what point you are trying to make.  No QB has ever won that came from Wyoming?  I think what you are saying is that because the Chiefs and Patriots didn't have blue chip WR's that this also applies to the QB position?  

 

There is a huge discrepancy in the value of a WR and QB and what they mean to their teams success.   And it's not a faulty comparison as you stated in fact it's entirely true.    Even if you want to pretend that the Patriots won with Randy Moss, that would have been 9 out of 11 wins would have been without a blue chip WR.   It's clear, you don't need a blue chip WR to compete and win a Super bowl.  This isn't an opinion out of right field, it's a certifiable undeniable fact.   Patriots won many Super bowls without one, and the Chiefs made a conscience decision to not extend the most dynamic receiver in the league after winning a Super bowl with him on the roster and went on to win 2 more Super bowls and went to a third one without him or replacing him with a  #1 WR.

 

Again, this isn't an argument to say that WR's aren't important, it's an argument to say that you can have a collection of highly competent receivers that fill different roles that fit the scheme of their offense and still have tremendous success.   

 

The two most recent dynasties when creating their roster construction made conscience decisions to not go after expensive blue chip WR's in FA and in the Chiefs case to even let a top 2 WR at that time just walk.

 

I think WR's as a whole are overvalued, by a lot.   My preference if I were a GM would be to take more of a moneyball approach to the WR position.    Get a bunch of guys that are good at filling certain roles, spend money on the O line and defense, protect the QB, have a good ground attack and have your all world QB make the right reads and plays.

So your arguments against having a top WR 1 are New England and the Chiefs….you do know what they had/have, right? Perhaps arguably the top 2 at their position of all time (and I’m not talking about QB)??

Edited Monday at 04:02 PM by Ya Digg?

[BillsVet]

43 minutes ago, SoTier said:

Your narrative isn't correct. It's not like the Bills haven't tried to draft a game wrecker DLer.  They drafted 4 DLers in rounds 1 and 2 between 2019 and 2021.

• DT Ed Oliver at #9 in 2019
• DE AJ Epenesa in #54 in 2020
• DE Gregory Rousseau at #30 and DE Boogie Basham at #61 in 2021

Basham was a bust, but Oliver and Rousseau are both good DLers and Epenesa is decent.  Where the Bills draft at the end of rounds, the fail rate for draft picks is greater than 50%.  it's hard to find many great pass rushers there because most pass rushers are gobbled up in the top ten spots of most drafts.

 

It's not a narrative, it's an opinion and for the cost of  1 top-10 1st, a later 1st, and 2 mid-2nd round picks they still don't have an impactful DL.  Rousseau I'd argue is their best DL and at times he disappears.  

 

Just because OBD prioritizes DL doesn't mean they have the right ones.  Or, that their scheme, coaching, and game-planning is getting the most out of those players.

[BisonBilly]

If Cook is going to get 15 mil a year, and a top WR gets 20-25, then I would say Cook is overpaid.  Just one man’s opinion 

[Magox]

I did a little exercise of the past 25 Super bowl winners and who their WR's were.

 

2000 - St Louis Rams had Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt - definitely top shelf receivers

2001 - Ravens - Qadry Ismail, Travis Taylor, Pat Johnson - No true #1

2002 - New England - Deion Branch, David Givens, Christian Fauria - No true #1 

2003 - Tampa Bay - KeyShawn and Keenan McCardell -  Keyshawn barely had 1000 yards and McCardell had 600 yards.  I wouldn't consider them true blue chip #1's at this time

2004 - Patriots - Deion Branch, Givens and Patten - No true #1

2005 - New England - Branch, Givens and Troy Brown - No true #1

2006 - Pittsburgh - Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes - Ward had 69 receptions for 975 yards - highly competent but not blue chip #1

2007 - Indianapolis - Reggie Wayne and ANthony Gonzalez - Reggie Wayne definitely a blue chip #1

2008 - Giants - Plaxico Burris, Amani Toomer - Plaxico had 70 catches on 141 targets for 1025 yards and 12 TD's.  He was a #1 but not a blue chip #1 WR

2009 - Pittsburgh -  Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward - both very competent receivers and Ward a good possession reliable receiver but not a blue chip #1

2010 - Saints - Marques Colston and Devery Henderson - Marques I'd say was a low end blue chip #1  -  He had a little over 1000 yards receiving that year

2011 -  Green Bay - Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Donald Driver - Greg Jennings was a blue chip #1

2012 - Giants - Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks - Victor Cruz had a phenomenal year and played like a blue chip #1 but fell off a cliff and played only 5 years in the league.

2013 - Ravens - Marlon Brown, Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith - No Blue chippers

2014 - Seattle - Doug Baldwin and Percy Harvin - None were blue chippers

2015 - New England - Edelman and Lafell - Edelman was an elite slot receiver but there were no blue chip boundary WR's

2016 - Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders - they were an elite tandem

2017 - New England - Brandin Cooks, Amendola and Chris Hogan - Cooks was a #1 but never elite, he had 65 receptions and 1082 yards for the year

2018 - Eagles - Alshon Jeffery, Tate, Agholor and Jordan Matthews -  No elite WR's, Alshon had an elite level year once but that was with the Chicago, he had 789 receiving yards for the Eagles when they won the Super bowl

2019 -  Patriots - Edelman and Gordon - No elite blue chip WR's aside from Edelman from the slot.  Gordon had 40 catches for 720 yards for the year with the Patriots

2020 - Kansas City - They had Tyreek - Elite

2021 - Tampa Bay - had Mike Evans - Elite

2022 - Rams - Cooper Kupp, Beckham and Van Jefferson - Kupp was elite

2023 - Chiefs - Juju Smith- Marquez Valdes Scantling, Kadarius Toney - No elite blue chip boundary WR's

2024 - Chiefs - Toney, Rashee, Marquez Valdes, Hardman - No elite WR's

2025 - Philadelphia - AJ Brown and Devonta - Elite

 

 

A few observations:

 

- More teams than not did not have an elite boundary WR out of the past 25 Super bowl winners.

- Most teams had anywhere from very good to elite defenses

- Most receivers that were their #1's were on their rookie contract (even if they weren't an elite WR)

- Very few FA WR's became their teams #1 and if they did they were more reclamation sort of projects than acquiring 1st in class sort of acquisitions.

 

There are various ways to having successful roster constructions to compete and win in the Superbowl.  If history is leaving any clues with these past 25 years, that on aggregate:

 

- Not chasing after top end blue chip WR's in FA

- Have an elite QB increases is a key ingredient to winning a Superbowl

- Drafting competent WR's and if you are fortunate enough to select one through the draft, hope that you can win it on their rookie contract

- Having a really good defense is almost a necessary requirement in the vast majority of the cases  (Only the 2000 Rams, 2007 Colts which did feature good pass rushers, 2020 Chiefs)  Well over 80% of the past Superbowl winners had very good to dominant defenses.

1 minute ago, BisonBilly said:

If Cook is going to get 15 mil a year, and a top WR gets 20-25, then I would say Cook is overpaid.  Just one man’s opinion 

 

Except top WR's can't be had in FA for $20 - $25M a year.   You can make a play for a competent boundary WR for around that much but not an ascending one.  

 

This past off season Gabe Davis signed for $13M  a year and Saquon for $12M.   That is the going rate and anyone who believes that the going rates that a middling #2/#3 WR should be the same as one of the elite 3 RB's is deluding themselves.     

 

Cook, if he signs with the Bills will most likely get around the $12M a year range.  I'm good with that, for me as a rule of thumb you try to do everything you can that is within reason to keep your playmakers.

[BisonBilly]

6 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

 

 

 

Except top WR's can't be had in FA for $20 - $25M a year.   You can make a play for a competent boundary WR for around that much but not an ascending one.  

 

This past off season Gabe Davis signed for $13M  a year and Saquon for $12M.   That is the going rate and anyone who believes that the going rates that a middling #2/#3 WR should be the same as one of the elite 3 RB's is deluding themselves.     

 

Cook, if he signs with the Bills will most likely get around the $12M a year range.  I'm good with that, for me as a rule of thumb you try to do everything you can that is within reason to keep your playmakers.

I saw estimates for tee Higgins at 20-25 a year, that’s where I got that number. 
 

if Barkley gets 12, cook better be less than 12! 

[Magox]

Just now, BisonBilly said:

I saw estimates for tee Higgins at 20-25 a year, that’s where I got that number. 
 

if Barkley gets 12, cook better be less than 12! 

 

Tee Higgins will get $30M.   

 

And to retain a playmaker like Cook, I'd be very ok with paying that.  I would suspect that he will get more snaps next season.

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, Magox said:

I did a little exercise of the past 25 Super bowl winners and who their WR's were.

 

2000 - St Louis Rams had Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt - definitely top shelf receivers

2001 - Ravens - Qadry Ismail, Travis Taylor, Pat Johnson - No true #1

2002 - New England - Deion Branch, David Givens, Christian Fauria - No true #1 

2003 - Tampa Bay - KeyShawn and Keenan McCardell -  Keyshawn barely had 1000 yards and McCardell had 600 yards.  I wouldn't consider them true blue chip #1's at this time

2004 - Patriots - Deion Branch, Givens and Patten - No true #1

2005 - New England - Branch, Givens and Troy Brown - No true #1

2006 - Pittsburgh - Hines Ward, Santonio Holmes - Ward had 69 receptions for 975 yards - highly competent but not blue chip #1

2007 - Indianapolis - Reggie Wayne and ANthony Gonzalez - Reggie Wayne definitely a blue chip #1

2008 - Giants - Plaxico Burris, Amani Toomer - Plaxico had 70 catches on 141 targets for 1025 yards and 12 TD's.  He was a #1 but not a blue chip #1 WR

2009 - Pittsburgh -  Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward - both very competent receivers and Ward a good possession reliable receiver but not a blue chip #1

2010 - Saints - Marques Colston and Devery Henderson - Marques I'd say was a low end blue chip #1  -  He had a little over 1000 yards receiving that year

2011 -  Green Bay - Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson and Donald Driver - Greg Jennings was a blue chip #1

2012 - Giants - Victor Cruz and Hakeem Nicks - Victor Cruz had a phenomenal year and played like a blue chip #1 but fell off a cliff and played only 5 years in the league.

2013 - Ravens - Marlon Brown, Jacoby Jones and Torrey Smith - No Blue chippers

2014 - Seattle - Doug Baldwin and Percy Harvin - None were blue chippers

2015 - New England - Edelman and Lafell - Edelman was an elite slot receiver but there were no blue chip boundary WR's

2016 - Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders - they were an elite tandem

2017 - New England - Brandin Cooks, Amendola and Chris Hogan - Cooks was a #1 but never elite, he had 65 receptions and 1082 yards for the year

2018 - Eagles - Alshon Jeffery, Tate, Agholor and Jordan Matthews -  No elite WR's, Alshon had an elite level year once but that was with the Chicago, he had 789 receiving yards for the Eagles when they won the Super bowl

2019 -  Patriots - Edelman and Gordon - No elite blue chip WR's aside from Edelman from the slot.  Gordon had 40 catches for 720 yards for the year with the Patriots

2020 - Kansas City - They had Tyreek - Elite

2021 - Tampa Bay - had Mike Evans - Elite

2022 - Rams - Cooper Kupp, Beckham and Van Jefferson - Kupp was elite

2023 - Chiefs - Juju Smith- Marquez Valdes Scantling, Kadarius Toney - No elite blue chip boundary WR's

2024 - Chiefs - Toney, Rashee, Marquez Valdes, Hardman - No elite WR's

2025 - Philadelphia - AJ Brown and Devonta - Elite

 

 

A few observations:

 

- More teams than not did not have an elite boundary WR out of the past 25 Super bowl winners.

- Most teams had anywhere from very good to elite defenses

- Most receivers that were their #1's were on their rookie contract (even if they weren't an elite WR)

- Very few FA WR's became their teams #1 and if they did they were more reclamation sort of projects than acquiring 1st in class sort of acquisitions.

 

There are various ways to having successful roster constructions to compete and win in the Superbowl.  If history is leaving any clues with these past 25 years, that on aggregate:

 

- Not chasing after top end blue chip WR's in FA

- Have an elite QB increases is a key ingredient to winning a Superbowl

- Drafting competent WR's and if you are fortunate enough to select one through the draft, hope that you can win it on their rookie contract

- Having a really good defense is almost a necessary requirement in the vast majority of the cases  (Only the 2000 Rams, 2007 Colts which did feature good pass rushers, 2020 Chiefs)  Well over 80% of the past Superbowl winners had very good to dominant defenses.

 

Except top WR's can't be had in FA for $20 - $25M a year.   You can make a play for a competent boundary WR for around that much but not an ascending one.  

 

This past off season Gabe Davis signed for $13M  a year and Saquon for $12M.   That is the going rate and anyone who believes that the going rates that a middling #2/#3 WR should be the same as one of the elite 3 RB's is deluding themselves.     

 

Cook, if he signs with the Bills will most likely get around the $12M a year range.  I'm good with that, for me as a rule of thumb you try to do everything you can that is within reason to keep your playmakers.

Meh, I think too much is being stated on elite vs blue chip vs #1.

 

Ultimately, you showed a lot of SB winning WR's that imo would get paid massive dollars in today's FA. So maybe they aren't overrated.

 

You are discarding these guys for having less than 1000 yards, but we are sitting here debating if Shakir is worth $20M for 800+ yards lol.

Edited Monday at 04:43 PM by FireChans

[The Jokeman]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

I think this analysis is also faulty.

 

No one has ever won a Super Bowl with a QB from Wyoming. We should trade Josh for JJ McCarthy because Michigan QB’s have a better track record.

 

You were closer to the mark with “every team is different.”

 

I don’t think the 2007 Pats lost because they had Randy Moss. Do you?

 

I will say, my take that had emerged earlier this year is that the dead zone of  WR6-20ish are not worth paying. You have to be a Chase, Jefferson etc to be worth paying in the market for the Bills. I’d rather pay those dudes $30M than a Shakir, who is a nice piece but that’s it, $20M. 

Where has AJ Brown gotten his team in the playoffs?

Was it AJ that got his team the ring or his defense as he had 3 catches for 48 yards and a TD that game, would you call that super production?