The overvaluation of Wide receivers

[Matt_In_NH]

10 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

see that is the thing though. 

 

Not many have the traits and explosiveness he does.

 

I am not sure where the bills would get a back that has them either considering where they pick and the fact that the roster probably will not allow a top 100 pick to be used for that position.  

 

Its a really tricky situation.  The Bills line and TE/WR blocking is very good in the running game but Cooks ability to score from anywhere is different than most backs.

 

 

He is not that special, we disagree.

[US Egg]

Do not sign Higgins!

[Dr. Who]

6 minutes ago, US Egg said:

Do not sign Higgins!

Almost as expensive as you are.

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, BearNorth said:

Xavier Worthy was on the board, we traded the pick to our arch rival.  He is a get deep receiver.  Playoff stats this year 19 catches, 21 targets, 3 TD's 13 first downs in 3 games, 15.1 ypc.

It's over, move on

[folz]

1 hour ago, BearNorth said:

Xavier Worthy was on the board, we traded the pick to our arch rival.  He is a get deep receiver.  Playoff stats this year 19 catches, 21 targets, 3 TD's 13 first downs in 3 games, 15.1 ypc.

 

I'm not saying Xavier Worthy isn't a good player...but his playoff stats are a bit misleading if you just list the totals, imo.

 

In the first playoff game, he had 48 yards and 0 TDs.

In the second playoff game, if you take away the catch that wasn't a catch (his longest of the day), he would have had 59 yards and 1 TD.

In the Super Bowl, up until 2:33 minutes left in the 3rd quarter, Worthy had 2 receptions for 9 yards. The score was 34-0 Philadelphia at that point. He then had 148 yards and two TDs in garbage time. So, prior to the garbage time stats, in almost 11 of 12 quarters of playoff football, he was averaging 42 yards and 0.36 TDs per playoff game.

 

He still deserves his props. I mean, he nabbed two 50-yard receptions and two TDs in a Super Bowl, not many people can say that, even if it was well after the game had already been decided. But, would he have still been able to do that if it had been a close game? Had Philly let up a bit at that point?

 

Prior to the Super Bowl, the most yards Xavier had in a game this year was 79. Only 6 of 19 games did he have more than 47 yards. And as far as taking the top off: Prior to the end of the SB, he only had three receptions for more than 30 yards in 19 games (good for 31, 35, and 54). Keon also had three receptions over 30 yards this year in 16 games (good for 49, 57, and 64). Keon had 12 receptions of 20+ yards this year, Worthy had 4 receptions of 20+ yards this season (and Keon played 3 fewer games and had 41 fewer targets than Xavier). On the year, Worthy's yards per reception was 10.8 (ranked 109th in the league---Keon was 4th in the league at 19.2, btw). On the year, Worthy's yards per target was 6.5  (ranked 174th in the league---Keon was 9.8, good for a 23rd ranking in the league). For a guy who was drafted to take the top off, he didn't seem to fare as well as even Keon "slow as molasses" Coleman as far as long balls.

 

I just think we need to have a little perspective on Worthy's playoff numbers. Maybe the Super Bowl was his coming out party and he'll kill it next year. Or maybe his SB numbers were heavily inflated by the blow-out nature of the game. The Worthy/Coleman question probably can't be answered until we see another 1-2 seasons.

Edited Sunday at 09:44 PM by folz

[BillsVet]

34 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

My point is not that more talent is not better its just the obsession with only one position....and I believe some nasty DL would have a bigger impact in a playoff game vs the chiefs than a WR...the SB validated that.  You dont have to outscore the chiefs by scoring a million points....you can stop them.

 

When is the last time the Bills under McBeane acquired/drafted "nasty" DLinemen?

 

8 off-seasons and aside from perhaps drafting Rousseau and signing Von Miller the DLines they've built have not held up when it mattered most.  It's mostly lunchpail types who underwhelm.    

 

Point is, when McBeane tell you their solutions are just that, I'd be skeptical it's not repackaging what hasn't worked.   Because I'm not convinced they're that good evaluating talent and will spin the wheel to ensure it winds up on "we need more defense."  Which invariably means, the offense will get by with lesser expenditures.  

[GASabresIUFan]

6 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

It's over, move on

It won't be over until the Bills beat the Chiefs and win a Super Bowl.  

[ColoradoBills]

11 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Almost as expensive as you are.

 

Well done.

[Beck Water]

7 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

see that is the thing though. 

 

Not many have the traits and explosiveness he does.

 

I am not sure where the bills would get a back that has them either considering where they pick and the fact that the roster probably will not allow a top 100 pick to be used for that position.  

 

Its a really tricky situation.  The Bills line and TE/WR blocking is very good in the running game but Cooks ability to score from anywhere is different than most backs.

 

A counterpoint is that while Cook's contributions have been solid for an RB as a receiver (84% catch rate, 8 Y/R), his use in the passing game really dropped off last year in favor of Ty Johnson and Ray Davis.  He had 54 targets last season, 38 this past season - with 44 targets going to Ty Johnson and Ray Davis.

 

This probably reflects Cook having a drop % of 9.4 his rookie year and 11.1% this past year.  The Bills seemed like they took some of the routes they were using Cook on in 2022 and 2023 out of his playbook and gave them to Ty Johnson and Ray Davis.

 

Cook is not built to be the physical beast that Henry and Barkley are.  He isn't carrying the rush attempt load that they, or Josh Jacobs or Jonathan Taylor are.  In fact, he literally has only 2/3 of the rush attempts those guys do - they're all >300 rush attempts to Cook's 207.  And it's not clear he'd physically hold up to that kind of workload.

 

So he's not carrying the rush attempt workload of the top backs, he's not adding in the passing contribution that other RBs make.  I think the Bills are open to paying him, but I'm honestly puzzled in his "$15M a year" unless it's all bluster.

[Buffalo Junction]

1 hour ago, MikePJ76 said:

He is not an every down back but he has a quality that is hard to replicate.

 

He is a home run hitter and makes big plays.  He is very quick and explosive and this year his decision making and willingness to run inside put him over the top.  Without a back that can do the same to replace him the offense would be very different.  He turned a number of 8 to 10 yard runs into 20+ runs and at important times.

 

If they pay him and I hope they find a way it will be for that trait.  Comparing him to the traditional everydown back at 225+ who wears people down is the wrong way to view his value and worth to the team.  

 

I think his age and limited number of carries eases the concern about the fall off of old backs and his speed and explosiveness is a unique trait.  The Bills have very few players who can get to the edge anywhere on the field and go to the house.  

The correct way to view Cook is in the same category as Aaron Jones who’s been well paid and had a good career thus far. Cook - like Jones or Ekeler - isn’t an every down all game guy like Henry, Barkley, Kamara or Jacobs. He’s in the category below that, but provides the ability to make game-breaking plays in the running and passing game. Those types orten tend to not break down as fast as standard RBs, but the reduced percentage of touches makes them less valuable.
 

The biggest thing that Cook has going against him aside from not being a workhorse is his pass blocking. When a large portion of a RBs value lays in their ability to make plays in the passing game the inability to pass block reduces their snap count and value. Basically, if you have to pay a Ty Johnson to play those third down snaps then Cook doesn’t deserve that extra couple million.

[LABILLBACKER]

My gut says do not sign a high priced wr like Higgins or Cooper.  Take your chances in the draft and maybe we find a mid round diamond that can help us to a SB on a cheap rookie contract.  You have to assume players like Kincaid,  Coleman and Samuel will slightly improve on their 24' numbers.  We're not getting knocked out of the playoffs because we can't score. Spend your fa and cap money on D.

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

I think what gets missed is great QB's create great WR's not the other way around, but don't let any WR's hear that.  They will insist it's the other way. (Diggs... you sure about that?)  This kind of becomes this never ending cycle. Say Higgins was a FA last off-season.  A team like the Giants may have gone after him thinking that will solve all of Jones's problems.  It may be helpful in the early years for a QB, did Diggs initially help Allen, yes, but once the QB ascends to top level, they can make any WR looks good.  Recall 20+ years ago, think it was when Bledsoe was QB he had Moulds and P Price.  Price had this great year, went to Atlanta and stunk up the place.

 

The other thing too is having better weapons just means the existing ones will get less receptions/yards.   If the Bills signed Higgins, doubtful nor would it be good overall if Allen threw for an extra 1000 yards.  There's only one ball to go around.  Do the Bills need better play at WR, yes, but not exponentially better.

 

Teams don't need better WR's they need better QB play overall.

[djp14150]

4 hours ago, Magox said:

This board and for that matter much of the league greatly values the worth of Wide receivers to their teams prospects to having success.   As it stands there are 23 total receivers who make at least $20 million per year of which 11 make more than $25 Million.  Just a couple years ago there were 14 who made $20M+ and just 5 that made $25M+.

 

The rate of inflation for paying receivers has outpaced the rate of the salary cap inflation as a whole.   To put this into perspective, by the time the 2025 season begins nearly half the league will have allocated pretty close to 10% of their entire salary cap towards their star receiver.

 

Justin Jefferson made up 13.7% in 2024

Devante Adams 13.5%

CeeDee Lamb 13.3%

Cooper Kupp 12.8%

AJ Brown 12.5%

Amon-Ra St. Brown 11.8%

Brandon Aiyuk 11.8%

Tyreek Bill 11.8%

Dk Metcalf 11.5%

Deebo Samuel 11.5%

 

Out of which 4 of them made the playoffs this past year.

https://theanalyst.com/2024/09/are-the-highest-paid-wide-receivers-worth-it

 

The league over the past 17 years had steadily increased their rate of passing which justified an increase in the rate of inflation to receivers.    Back in 2005 teams were throwing on average for 203.5 and saw a steady increase all the way to 2020 peaking out at 240.2 yards per game.   Since 2020, teams have began to run the ball more often and more successfully, seeing the passing rate steadily decline to 217.6 yards per game which is a substantial 10% rate of decline in passing yardage over the past 5 years.   It makes sense that teams have evolved and have adjusted to playing more bully ball against teams that were designed to stop passes who employed lighter boxes and base nickel defenses leading to the decline in passing yards.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

 

It's not coincidence that sometime around 2020 NFL teams which was when teams were at their zenith in terms of passing yards had begun to seriously deflate Running back valuations comparatively to the rest of the NFL rate of player personnel pay and began the inflation of wide receiver pay relative to the NFL pay as a whole.

 

The question begs is the rate of pay inflation in the NFL for receivers justified?

 

Before I get into that, I wanted to share some stats.

 

The four teams that threw the ball the least in 2024 was Philadelphia, Baltimore, Green Bay and Buffalo.   All 4 teams were playoff teams, one won the Super Bowl, another went to the AFC championship.  Out of the top 10 teams that passed the ball least 7 made the playoffs.

 

This past year in 2024, out of the top 10 receivers in terms of receiving yards only 3 played in the playoffs, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ladd McConkey.

 

Out of the top 10 of the teams that spent the most for wide receivers in 2024 only 3 made the playoffs. Out of the bottom 17 teams that spent the least in wide receivers in 2024, nearly half of them did make the playoffs.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/wide-receiver/_/year/2024/table/active/sort/cash_total

 

It's clear that for NFL teams to be successful that it is not necessary to have true blue #1 blue chip boundary WR's.  Chiefs, Bills and Ravens are examples of this.  Out of the 14 teams that made the playoffs, only 5 teams have receivers that are being paid over $20M a year.

 

It's evident that the NFL has begun to trend towards running against lighter boxes more and passing the ball less.   It takes a little time for GM's to adjust to realities on the ground, but we are beginning to see the deflationary cycle break in terms of paying playmaking RB's, but we've yet to see this happen in the wide receiver market.  There are traditional factors at play such as basic supply and demand, in which unfortunately for RB's, the supply of RB's are expected to increase through this years RB crop of rookies which may put a damper on the overall RB market and that inversely there aren't that many stellar WR's in this year rookie crop which may prevent a lid for WR's.

 

With all that said, I do expect to see the inflationary rate of pay for Wide receivers to begin to subside sometime in the near future.   I don't advocate for having bottom tier talent at the receiver spot, what I am advocating is that it's not necessary to pay these extreme high wages that eat up so much cap room for a WR, specially in a league that has consistently been trending towards passing the ball less over the past 4 seasons.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I’ve said this before, WRs are going to be like RBs where they can easily get replaced this not investing like the 11%+ of cap space you mention unless they are the dream receiver that fits multiple receiver roles like (1) deep threat, (2) catch in tight quarters, (3) level of quickness to side step coverage/ tacklers, (4) can run over hr middle, (5) break tackling ability, (6) has the sorter term high gear to create space

 

some WRs might get more if the team is on a rookie contract for a QB

 

 

[DCofNC]

3 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

He is not an every down back but he has a quality that is hard to replicate.

 

He is a home run hitter and makes big plays.  He is very quick and explosive and this year his decision making and willingness to run inside put him over the top.  Without a back that can do the same to replace him the offense would be very different.  He turned a number of 8 to 10 yard runs into 20+ runs and at important times.

 

If they pay him and I hope they find a way it will be for that trait.  Comparing him to the traditional everydown back at 225+ who wears people down is the wrong way to view his value and worth to the team.  

 

I think his age and limited number of carries eases the concern about the fall off of old backs and his speed and explosiveness is a unique trait.  The Bills have very few players who can get to the edge anywhere on the field and go to the house.  

His attitude towards money and his brother’s chirping in his ear makes me VERY concerned his only goal is to get paid big early and coast off into the sunset.  I don’t need a guy who won’t block and wants to negotiate in public before his contract is up, playing the social media game already.  That’s Diggs 2.0, I’m good.

[TheBeaneBandit]

1 hour ago, LABILLBACKER said:

My gut says do not sign a high priced wr like Higgins or Cooper.  Take your chances in the draft and maybe we find a mid round diamond that can help us to a SB on a cheap rookie contract.  You have to assume players like Kincaid,  Coleman and Samuel will slightly improve on their 24' numbers.  We're not getting knocked out of the playoffs because we can't score. Spend your fa and cap money on D.

How high priced can Cooper really expect though? If it can be done in the 2 for 30m category I'm down with that.

[LABILLBACKER]

20 minutes ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

How high priced can Cooper really expect though? If it can be done in the 2 for 30m category I'm down with that.

2/$28 would be the most I'd pay AC based on his age and projected return. It's not like he was that  productive for us anyway.  Draft 2 wrs and hope 1 blossoms. 

[harmonkillebrew]

you're probably right that WRs are overvalued in terms of cap space. They're great entertainers, but probably not as important to winning a SB.

But it also doesn't mean the Bills shouldn't get one to help get them over the hump. Dline and secondary are definitely the priority. But a weapon on the outside would just make that O that much more balanced and harder to defend. In this league you can't just keep trotting out the same stuff each season. DCoordinators learn your tendencies and players and adjust 

3 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

see that is the thing though. 

 

Not many have the traits and explosiveness he does.

 

I am not sure where the bills would get a back that has them either considering where they pick and the fact that the roster probably will not allow a top 100 pick to be used for that position.  

 

Its a really tricky situation.  The Bills line and TE/WR blocking is very good in the running game but Cooks ability to score from anywhere is different than most backs.

 

 

he's a threat to break it every time he gets the ball and it really set the tone for a few games. Throw in his ball security, durability, and pass catching.

Bills have not had a RB like this in years. I don't want to lose it. 

[Comebackkid]

i think D's have come a long way lately to shutting down good wr's.    

but...when everythying is on the line and its 4 and 7, are you running cook or are you 

hoping to have a wr or even t/e (see kelse)   that u can count on to get open.

 

[TheBeaneBandit]

2 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

2/$28 would be the most I'd pay AC based on his age and projected return. It's not like he was that  productive for us anyway.  Draft 2 wrs and hope 1 blossoms. 

Hey even if we bring him back for that, I'm still drafting one👍

[sven233]

I don't think it is about having a true, blue chip WR1.  What I believe it is about is having explosive players at the position that can win on their own against man coverage that can challenge a defense at every level of the field.  I mean, you don't have to look far to find a great example of this. 

 

Just a few years ago, we had the combination of Brown and Beasley out there creating separation all over the field.  Brown with his elite level speed was deadly on those deep overs and go routes.  Beasley, while not a blazer, was so explosive off the line with his short field quickness and change of direction ability and he was able to get open whenever he wanted to in the short to intermediate levels of the field.  Allen, even though still young and inexperienced, was able to get career years out of those guys because of their separation ability and Allen's talent.  Imagine what this version of Josh Allen could do with WRs with their skill sets.  These guys were not elite level, big name WRs.  But what they did have was elite level explosiveness in their own ways.  Right now, we have nothing even close to the skill set that these guys offered in their prime.

 

Now, we do have Shakir, who we all can agree, is a very nice player.  He does a lot of the things Beasley did but offers more in the sense of RAC.  While Beasley was the better route runner overall, we can absolutely win with Shakir playing the Beasley role and I think with Shakir's RAC ability, he can be a better WR than Beasley was.  But, as noted above, we have nobody that threatens a defense vertically.  It became more and more obvious each week as defenses kept creeping their safeties up closer and closer to the LOS every game that went by.  They knew nobody was running by them and beating them down the field on a regular basis and it made Allen's job so much harder than it needed to be.

 

This has been my biggest qualm with Beane's drafting.  Too many times he passes on guys with elite athletic traits for guys that "play like a Bill".  And that has left us short on talent to even try to develop into a true superstar.  We all know the examples.  Cody Ford over guys like AJ Brown and DK Metcalf.  Coleman over Worthy (or even BTJ who you could have had by trading up just a few spots).  And of course the list goes on, even at other positions.  

 

So no.....you don't need to go out and spend crazy money on a proven WR1 (unless you want to re-sign a guy that you found and developed into a superstar).  But, what you do need to do is get some guys with elite level traits and explosiveness that you hope Brady and Allen can get the most out of and therefore open up the downfield passing game.  Once you open up the entire field, Allen will take care of the rest.