The overvaluation of Wide receivers

[Alphadawg7]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

AJ Brown has 4031 yards and 25 TDs in 3 years with Philly. Where they have been to the playoffs 3 times, the SB twice and won a ring once.

 

Yeah, I’d say he was a key contributor and that is super production. lol.

 

And they didn't win the SB until they rebuilt their defense into the #1 defense in the NFL and added a RB who put up one of the greatest seasons in history.  

[Beck Water]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

They needed that play because the refs flipped the game when they stole our first down twice on the same series.  That was an 11 to 15 point swing in a game we lost by 3.  

 

And it was Josh Allen who shifted the protection to the wrong side.  You do know that he had Samuel open on that series but had a pass knocked down at LOS.  He then had both Shakir and Kincaid wide open on 4th down, one short for sure first down and one deep for a huge play and it was Allen who didn't make the play because he shifted the protection to the wrong side.  

 

So no, it wasn't that we needed Chase...we needed the refs to not F us and then we needed Allen to not shift the coverage to wrong side because he had 2 guys wide open.  

 

@Alphadawg7, regarding the refs, I'm just gonna quote James Cook on that"

Quote

"At the end of the day, as a man, you gotta come in there and ready to go. F--- that ref *****," Cook said on 'Kickin It With Dee. ' "You gotta come in that b---- ready to go, ready to play. Don't give a ref nothing to call."

 

Yes, the refs flipped the game with those calls.  It's gonna happen though.  If the Bills want to win, they have to leave no doubt.

 

I don't think you can say Josh shifted the protection to the wrong side.  There were looks on film and a play earlier in the game where the KC D showed that R side overlook and then blitzed off the left.  So the Bills saw the same look and shifted the protection the same way.  It was a great play design by Spags. 

Whether there were some subtle "tells" that Tom Brady would have picked up, telling him this play was different, can't tell you, but the point is, Josh didn't shift the protections to slide left for no good reasons.

But again - the defense gets paid too, and in the biggest games, you're typically facing the best.  So broken plays will happen, and if the margin of error is small, wins depend on having that clutch guy.

[TheBeaneBandit]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And they didn't win the SB until they rebuilt their defense into the #1 defense in the NFL and added a RB who put up one of the greatest seasons in history.  

A lot of things magically fell into their laps it was crazy. Carter, Mitchell and DeJean in the draft, Barkley in free agency. It's going to be awhile before another team has all the chips fall like that again.

[Alphadawg7]

13 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

@Alphadawg7, regarding the refs, I'm just gonna quote James Cook on that"

 

Yes, the refs flipped the game with those calls.  It's gonna happen though.  If the Bills want to win, they have to leave no doubt.

 

Im certainly not a blame the refs kind of guy, but facts are facts in this game.  It was the 4th quarter, it was big a gaff as it gets in a game and it without question changed the course of that game drastically.

 

13 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I don't think you can say Josh shifted the protection to the wrong side.  There were looks on film and a play earlier in the game where the KC D showed that R side overlook and then blitzed off the left.  So the Bills saw the same look and shifted the protection the same way.  It was a great play design by Spags. 

 

Allen and the OL guys all said Allen shifted the coverage to the wrong side...there are only two sides...right or wrong, they chose the wrong one because as you said Spags called a great play.  

 

But you are missing the entirety of the point...we didn't fail on that last drive because Jamar Chase wasnt on the team, I mean Shakir who has some of the most reliable hands in the league was wide open and Kincaid, a TE was wide open down field.  Josh got a poor pass off in duress because of protection was shifted to the opposite side giving the defense a free release at Allen, not WR personnel issues.  And we would have not even been in a 4th down had Josh not had his pass knocked down at LOS to an open Samuel on that same series.  

 

So...that is why I keep pushing back when people want to hold the WR group accountable for this loss when it really isn't rooted in reality.  Our guys were open, Josh did not get them the ball because he had a pass knocked down, I believe he also missed a throw on another down, and the protection was to the wrong side and Allen didn't see a wide open Shakir and then threw a prayer to what was a wide open Kincaid had he been able to get a clean pass off.

 

13 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

Whether there were some subtle "tells" that Tom Brady would have picked up, telling him this play was different, can't tell you, but the point is, Josh didn't shift the protections to slide left for no good reasons.

But again - the defense gets paid too, and in the biggest games, you're typically facing the best.  So broken plays will happen, and if the margin of error is small, wins depend on having that clutch guy.

 

This is my entire point of the offseason, what you said right here.  When your margin of error is small...and why do you think our margin of error is so small?  Because 29 points is not enough...or because our defense has given up an average of 35 PPG to the Chiefs in playoff losses who 3 times went on to lose the next game and average just 17 PPG in those 3 losses?

 

When your defense is bottom of the league in 3rd down conversion, first downs allowed, etc...you are making your QB have to be perfect or near perfect with the smallest of errors.  And worse yet, when you have small margins of errors windows, coaching because massively impactful, like how Spags for just one play just had to out coach our guys.

 

 

Edited Monday at 08:55 PM by Alphadawg7

[HappyDays]

47 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

They needed that play because the refs flipped the game when they stole our first down twice on the same series.  That was an 11 to 15 point swing in a game we lost by 3.  

 

We were only in the game at all because Mahomes randomly dropped the ball. And because we recovered every single fumble. And because Cook made a ridiculous individual play that absolutely should have been a 4th down stop.

 

You can't point to one fluctuation of luck and say "if this one outcome was flipped we would have won" while ignoring the rest that went our way. We can't expect every single coin flip to go our way. The preferred outcome is to make the random swings of luck a non-factor by making a lot more plays than your opponent.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

And they didn't win the SB until they rebuilt their defense into the #1 defense in the NFL and added a RB who put up one of the greatest seasons in history.  

Okay so let’s get some good WR’s and add a great RB and rebuild the defense to be the best in football. 
 

who says no

1 hour ago, The Jokeman said:

My point being it takes a team to win a Super Bowl, the Bills defense isn't anywhere near as talented as the Eagles defense so even if the Bills have AJ Brown on it's team as it is today I doubt it will get us any closer to the Super Bowl we have been thus far. 

Okay.

 

might as well not get more talented. 
 

we are just too far to bother.

 

Lets sign 6 Mack Hollins instead.

Edited Monday at 09:45 PM by FireChans

[Alphadawg7]

50 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

We were only in the game at all because Mahomes randomly dropped the ball. And because we recovered every single fumble. And because Cook made a ridiculous individual play that absolutely should have been a 4th down stop.

 

You can't point to one fluctuation of luck and say "if this one outcome was flipped we would have won" while ignoring the rest that went our way. We can't expect every single coin flip to go our way. The preferred outcome is to make the random swings of luck a non-factor by making a lot more plays than your opponent.

 

Those were the players...you can say that about every single game and every single team.  Having a 3rd party like the refs completely alter the game is out of the players and coaches control.

 

And once again, if you don't want lose close games then maybe field a defense that doesnt give up 35 PPG to a team that loses the very next week scoring an average of 17 PPG.

[SoTier]

2 hours ago, Jrb1979 said:

I'm not against fixing the Dline and getting an elite talent but you need playmakers on both sides of the ball to win the Superbowl. 

 

Since the Bills are limited by the cap, they can either pursue a game wrecking DLer or an elite WR in FA.  They can't get both.  I'd prioritize the DE and look for a good WR prospect in the draft and/or re-signing Cooper at a reasonable price.   A great DE like Garrett would positively affect the entire DL, and a better pass rush would also help the DBs.

 

Trying to outscore other playoff teams in a run to the Super Bowl requires your offense to execute almost perfectly game after game after game.  That's an almost impossible task.  A fierce pass rush affects the QB even if it only gets pressure rather than sacks ... incompletes, interceptions, and bad decisions.

 

[tigerthelion]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

They needed that play because the refs flipped the game when they stole our first down twice on the same series.  That was an 11 to 15 point swing in a game we lost by 3.  

 

And it was Josh Allen who shifted the protection to the wrong side.  You do know that he had Samuel open on that series but had a pass knocked down at LOS.  He then had both Shakir and Kincaid wide open on 4th down, one short for sure first down and one deep for a huge play and it was Allen who didn't make the play because he shifted the protection to the wrong side.  

 

So no, it wasn't that we needed Chase...we needed the refs to not F us and then we needed Allen to not shift the coverage to wrong side because he had 2 guys wide open.  

 

 

 

Eagles got back to the SB and won it because they rebuilt one of the worst defenses into the number 1 defense in the NFL this year and added an MVP worthy RB who had one of the greatest single seasons in history didn't hurt either.

A pass to Shakir on that fourth down was not a sure first down at all.  That is a false assumption.  There were a lot of yards to pick up and KC defenders ready to go after him if the ball went that way.

[MikePJ76]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im certainly not a blame the refs kind of guy, but facts are facts in this game.  It was the 4th quarter, it was big a gaff as it gets in a game and it without question changed the course of that game drastically.

 

 

Allen and the OL guys all said Allen shifted the coverage to the wrong side...there are only two sides...right or wrong, they chose the wrong one because as you said Spags called a great play.  

 

But you are missing the entirety of the point...we didn't fail on that last drive because Jamar Chase wasnt on the team, I mean Shakir who has some of the most reliable hands in the league was wide open and Kincaid, a TE was wide open down field.  Josh got a poor pass off in duress because of protection was shifted to the opposite side giving the defense a free release at Allen, not WR personnel issues.  And we would have not even been in a 4th down had Josh not had his pass knocked down at LOS to an open Samuel on that same series.  

 

So...that is why I keep pushing back when people want to hold the WR group accountable for this loss when it really isn't rooted in reality.  Our guys were open, Josh did not get them the ball because he had a pass knocked down, I believe he also missed a throw on another down, and the protection was to the wrong side and Allen didn't see a wide open Shakir and then threw a prayer to what was a wide open Kincaid had he been able to get a clean pass off.

 

 

This is my entire point of the offseason, what you said right here.  When your margin of error is small...and why do you think our margin of error is so small?  Because 29 points is not enough...or because our defense has given up an average of 35 PPG to the Chiefs in playoff losses who 3 times went on to lose the next game and average just 17 PPG in those 3 losses?

 

When your defense is bottom of the league in 3rd down conversion, first downs allowed, etc...you are making your QB have to be perfect or near perfect with the smallest of errors.  And worse yet, when you have small margins of errors windows, coaching because massively impactful, like how Spags for just one play just had to out coach our guys.

 

 

What?  Damn our fans hate Josh Allen.

 

Amari Cooper slipped on the second down play.  Had he not slipped it was a monster play, because he slipped and had to get going again Karlaftis was able to catch him.  There was nothing ahead of Cooper but grass.

 

Perfect play call, perfect execution in the blocking except Cooper slipped and lost his momentum.  Our guys outcoached Spags on this play and it would have been the equivalent of the Allen game winning play in Buffalo in november vs the chiefs.

 

if Cooper doesn't slip and gets going the Bills are playing the eagles.

 

 

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

22 minutes ago, tigerthelion said:

A pass to Shakir on that fourth down was not a sure first down at all.  That is a false assumption.  There were a lot of yards to pick up and KC defenders ready to go after him if the ball went that way.

 

One, that point is irrelevant as the actual point was 2 guys on the routes they were assigned by our OC were wide open in Shakir and Kincaid.  Second, I disagree, it was 4th and 5 and the defenders were way off Shakir and he has made that play to convert for a first a bunch of times as he is a dawg with the ball in his hands, especially with that kind of cushion and only needing about 3 yards from where he would have caught it.  Regardless if you want to debate Shakir, Kincaid was still wide open 30 yards down field without a defender remotely near him if Allen can set and make a clean pass.  

 

Once again, it was not personnel, we had 2 guys wide open.  So to attribute our non conversion to the WR group we we had a ball batted down at the LOS where he had an open WR, and then we end with 2 guys wide open but the wrong protection called is just not at all accurate.  

 

Yet...if we had just one player on defense that could have prevented just one 3rd down conversion...literally make just one play more than we did in that game...that gets us off the field instead of allowing a scoring drive, then that is one less score we give up and we win the game...not to mention, that would have also put the ball back in Allen and the offenses hands to give them another shot at a scoring drive.  

 

Rather than expect my QB and the offense to have to be perfect for entire drives to win games...I would rather just find one guy who can make one more play or two on on defense throughout an entire game.  

Edited Monday at 11:12 PM by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

What?  Damn our fans hate Josh Allen.

 

Amari Cooper slipped on the second down play.  Had he not slipped it was a monster play, because he slipped and had to get going again Karlaftis was able to catch him.  There was nothing ahead of Cooper but grass.

 

Perfect play call, perfect execution in the blocking except Cooper slipped and lost his momentum.  Our guys outcoached Spags on this play and it would have been the equivalent of the Allen game winning play in Buffalo in november vs the chiefs.

 

if Cooper doesn't slip and gets going the Bills are playing the eagles.

 

 

 

 

 

Hate Josh Allen?  I might actually be his biggest fan.  But facts are facts...we had guys wide open on our final series and we didn't make the plays to get them the ball.  So for people to pretend we lost this game all because we didn't have a Chase, Jefferson, etc type player is just not reflective of what actually happened.  

 

 

[Jrb1979]

20 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Hate Josh Allen?  I might actually be his biggest fan.  But facts are facts...we had guys wide open on our final series and we didn't make the plays to get them the ball.  So for people to pretend we lost this game all because we didn't have a Chase, Jefferson, etc type player is just not reflective of what actually happened.  

 

 

I'm of the opinion it's due to both. Yea they needed a game wrecker on defense to win but they also need elite talent on offense too.  

 

 

[MiracleAtRich1393]

10 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I am not going to try and argue the Eagles don't have better WR's than the Bills, they do.  Who cares what round these guys were drafted, it is what they have done.  You say the Eagles "stole" Dotson from the Commanders....and you seem to think it is really important he was a first round pick.  He has not performed like a first round pick, not for Washington and not for Philly....he is a low end #3.   The Eagles probably have the best roster top to bottom so even though Hurts may not be top tier they can win with him...and btw he is pretty close to top tier.   The Eagles are pushing the limits on salary cap manipulation even more than the Saints used to do....they will be forced to not sign or get rid of key guys just like the Saints did.   There are different ways to build a winning team, we tend to look at who won the SB and think that is how it should be done.  The Bills need to find some blue chip players one way or another to add to Allen.  

The reason I mentioned the rounds they were drafted is that the Eagles were clearly obsessed with adding top flight talent at the WR position (a.k.a. an obsession with one position)

 

They ALSO hit on their premium DLine picks while none of ours have been true difference makers. Both are important . We should pursue both simultaneously. Instead we haven't added the top tier weapons, and have whiffed on the DLine. Beane has gotta do better in both departments.

[tigerthelion]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

One, that point is irrelevant as the actual point was 2 guys on the routes they were assigned by our OC were wide open in Shakir and Kincaid.  Second, I disagree, it was 4th and 5 and the defenders were way off Shakir and he has made that play to convert for a first a bunch of times as he is a dawg with the ball in his hands, especially with that kind of cushion and only needing about 3 yards from where he would have caught it.  Regardless if you want to debate Shakir, Kincaid was still wide open 30 yards down field without a defender remotely near him if Allen can set and make a clean pass.  

 

Once again, it was not personnel, we had 2 guys wide open.  So to attribute our non conversion to the WR group we we had a ball batted down at the LOS where he had an open WR, and then we end with 2 guys wide open but the wrong protection called is just not at all accurate.  

 

Yet...if we had just one player on defense that could have prevented just one 3rd down conversion...literally make just one play more than we did in that game...that gets us off the field instead of allowing a scoring drive, then that is one less score we give up and we win the game...not to mention, that would have also put the ball back in Allen and the offenses hands to give them another shot at a scoring drive.  

 

Rather than expect my QB and the offense to have to be perfect for entire drives to win games...I would rather just find one guy who can make one more play or two on on defense throughout an entire game.  

I tend to agree with your overall points. Especially the last paragraph. 

 

I think finding another WR is important to give Josh someone to throw to on the boundary,  so we don't need to grind out three and four yards at a time and need to convert fourth downs all game. Don't think it has to be a 30 million dollar WR.  Would love a guy like Metcalf but his price is likely too high.  Just disappointed in Kincaid.  Nobody other than Cook really made a play for Allen.  

 

Overall, the defense needs to make things tougher on opposing offenses in the playoffs.  That is indisputable, imo.  

Edited Tuesday at 01:07 AM by tigerthelion

[Matt_In_NH]

14 minutes ago, MiracleAtRich1393 said:

The reason I mentioned the rounds they were drafted is that the Eagles were clearly obsessed with adding top flight talent at the WR position (a.k.a. an obsession with one position)

 

They ALSO hit on their premium DLine picks while none of ours have been true difference makers. Both are important . We should pursue both simultaneously. Instead we haven't added the top tier weapons, and have whiffed on the DLine. Beane has gotta do better in both departments.

I could say the bills are obsessed with high round talent at wr with signing hamler, Isabella and claypool?  Not saying they are equal at all but when you add Kincaid and Coleman to that they are clearly looking for traits.  They have not worked out well enough yet.  I feel like they have to hit on one of these picks at some point.   

[Buffalo716]

10 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I could say the bills are obsessed with high round talent at wr with signing hamler, Isabella and claypool?  Not saying they are equal at all but when you add Kincaid and Coleman to that they are clearly looking for traits.  They have not worked out well enough yet.  I feel like they have to hit on one of these picks at some point.   

But Hamler Isabella and chasepool were all has beens or never was 

 

And we didn't draft any of them top 3 rounds , we picked them up for peanuts when they sucked 

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

This is my entire point of the offseason, what you said right here.  When your margin of error is small...and why do you think our margin of error is so small?  Because 29 points is not enough...or because our defense has given up an average of 35 PPG to the Chiefs in playoff losses who 3 times went on to lose the next game and average just 17 PPG in those 3 losses?

 

I've certainly been vocal about our D not being good enough this season.  But it's not uncommon for the margin of error to be small when you're playing the best teams, because...they're the best teams.

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I've certainly been vocal about our D not being good enough this season.  But it's not uncommon for the margin of error to be small when you're playing the best teams, because...they're the best teams.

 

I get that, you play the better teams the games are naturally closer, like the Ravens game.  But even in that game, our D didn't come through, someone just dropped the ball and it gave us the win.  

 

And look at what the Eagles DL did...they made sure there was no narrow margin of error just the Bucs did when they smashed the Chiefs too.  At one point the Eagles were up 34-0.  

 

29 points should have been enough against this low scoring Chiefs team that had not scored 30 all season except the game they beat us in the AFCCG when they scored 32.  And as I have mentioned previously, in the 4 games KC knocked us out of the playoffs they went on to lose their next game 3 times.  In their wins over us they average 35 ppg...in those 3 losses the following week (including 2 SB losses) they averaged just 17 PPG.  

 

So, our defense is clearly the one putting us into a low margin of error situations every post season by just folding like a lawn chair and its hard to expect different results if we cant get some people on that side of the ball capable of getting off the field on 3rd down a couple more times a game.

 

 

Edited Tuesday at 02:33 AM by Alphadawg7

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, tigerthelion said:

I tend to agree with your overall points. Especially the last paragraph. 

 

I think finding another WR is important to give Josh someone to throw to on the boundary,  so we don't need to grind out three and four yards at a time and need to convert fourth downs all game. Don't think it has to be a 30 million dollar WR.  Would love a guy like Metcalf but his price is likely too high.  Just disappointed in Kincaid.  Nobody other than Cook really made a play for Allen.  

 

Overall, the defense needs to make things tougher on opposing offenses in the playoffs.  That is indisputable, imo.  

 

Its all good bud, and make no mistake about it, we need to and will add another boundary WR this offseason.  I am not against it at all, its just we better do something to help the defense get out of the bottom of the league at 3rd down stops and first downs allowed or its hard to imagine things being much different.  

 

I would love to throw 2 firsts at Garrett then turn around and try and entice Seattle with a 2nd and maybe one of our 4th or 5th rounders and see if they bite.  Will it happen, most likely not, but if I was in Beanes spot with a team this close with this few of glaring holes, I would be trying to make those 2 trades happen (or Crosby if not Garrett)

Edited Tuesday at 02:58 AM by Alphadawg7