The overvaluation of Wide receivers

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Well we were discussing this before the season began...and did the Eagles really do this?  Because they have had AJ and DeVonta in the seasons past and didn't win the SB.  Last year with an atrocious defense they didn't get close.  

 

Weird thing happened...Eagles added Saquan and put together the #1 defense in the NFL and poof...back in the SB and that defense dismantled KC just like the Bucs did.  And despite scoring 40, the offense didn't put up gaudy production because the defense made that possible for them.  

 

So this isn't the evidence you think it is

 

 

16th best offense in NFL history and best in Bills history.  But he won because "his cast was weak"?  Allen set multiple individual records...the offense set multiple team records.  But he only won because his "cast was weak"?  The mental gymnastics you will try and do to push for your "Jamar Chase" is getting more creative at least lol

 

 

What records did Allen set?

 

and yes, the Eagles unequivocally traded a #1 pick for AJ Brown, paid him twice, went to a SB twice and won once.

Edited Monday at 06:56 PM by FireChans

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

You do need a number 1 pass catcher. Almost every team that has won a Super Bowl either had a number 1 WR or a number 1 TE.  

 

Nobody has ever said you didn't...its the degree to how much a team needs to leverage at the position that is being discussed.  Some believe we need to give up anything and as much cap as possible to go get an elite one or we cant win...and that is just never been the case.

[HappyDays]

4 hours ago, Magox said:

Again, the two most recent dynasties in 9 out of their last 10 Super bowl winning years didn't have a true blue chip #1 WR.

 

I would stay away from dynasties in these discussions. Dynasties break all the rules, they're not good comparisons. We would need an all-time great coaching staff to emulate the Pats or Chiefs dynasties. As an example KC won the Super Bowl last year with bad OT play. Does that mean OTs are overrated? Of course not. But they're allowed to break the rules and still compete for a Super Bowl. We'll need to go the more traditional route.

 

So staying away from dynasties (and even the Chiefs and Pats had Tyreek Hill and/or Kelce or Gronkowski during their Super Bowl runs) here are the top tier pass catchers that have reached the Super Bowl in recent years:

 

AJ Brown (twice)

Deebo/Aiyuk/Kittle

Cooper Kupp

Ja'Marr Chase

Mike Evans

 

That's the last 7 years of Super Bowl history. Every team has needed players of that caliber to even get to the Super Bowl, and as noted even the Chiefs had at least one top tier pass catcher every year until this year when Kelce really dropped off.

 

It's just not a position you can hide unfortunately. No one says a top tier pass catcher guarantees a Super Bowl appearance, but seemingly one is necessary to have a good chance of getting there. We once again fell short this year because Allen's pass catchers let him down on the final drive of the season. Yes there were plenty of other issues in that game especially on defense, but every one of them would have been overcome if we had had the necessary pass catching talent to close the deal on that final drive. Which is exactly the same outcome as what happened the previous year.

 

Edited Monday at 07:02 PM by HappyDays

[Alphadawg7]

Just now, FireChans said:

What records did Allen set?

 

Really lol?  You don't know this info?  I have to help you be a fan now by catching you up on all the accomplishments our NFL MVP had?  Sometimes I wonder if you are really a huge Bills fan or just a fan of arguing about the Bills, because as a die hard Bills fan I find it shocking you don't already know this info.

[FireChans]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Really lol?  You don't know this info?  I have to help you be a fan now by catching you up on all the accomplishments our NFL MVP had?  Sometimes I wonder if you are really a huge Bills fan or just a fan of arguing about the Bills, because as a die hard Bills fan I find it shocking you don't already know this info.

What records did he set?

 

It certainly wasn’t most yards or TDs in his career, let alone record breaking.

Edited Monday at 07:04 PM by FireChans

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

What records did he set?

 

It certainly wasn’t most yards or TDs in his career, let alone record breaking.

 

Im not going to help you be a fan.  Some things are best discovered on your own  

 

Edited Monday at 07:08 PM by Alphadawg7

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Jrb1979 said:

It's not a problem for winning in the regular season and it worked for most the playoffs. When you need a big play like they did at the end of the AFC championship game, everyone eats fails more than it succeeds. 

 

 

 

1 game is a very small sample size, dude.

 

Pressuring/sacking elite QBs frequently reduces them to ordinary QBs, especially in the playoffs.  In this year's playoffs alone, the Bills D got after Lamar alot ... and the Bills won.   The Bills D couldn't pressure Mahomes in the AFCCG, and KC won.  In the Super Bowl, the Eagles harassed Mahomes while the game was in doubt -- and Mahomes played more like Mitch Trubisky.  

[Jrb1979]

6 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Nobody has ever said you didn't...its the degree to how much a team needs to leverage at the position that is being discussed.  Some believe we need to give up anything and as much cap as possible to go get an elite one or we cant win...and that is just never been the case.

That's fair. I don't think you should spend every thing on an elite one but I also don't believe that just cause they had the number 1 offense last year it is good enough. 

 

My take is that as good as the offense was with the everyone eats thinking does work til it doesn't. I'm off the belief that had they had an elite pass catcher, a TE or WR they make the Superbowl this past season. 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im not going to help you be a fan.  Somethings are best discovered on your own  

You won’t help me because you know they are all examples of Allen doing it nearly single-handedly, like being the first QB with a passing, rushing and receiving TD in a game lmao.

 

Too easy man, I shouldn’t do this for free.

[Jrb1979]

2 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

1 game is a very small sample size, dude.

 

Pressuring/sacking elite QBs frequently reduces them to ordinary QBs, especially in the playoffs.  In this year's playoffs alone, the Bills D got after Lamar alot ... and the Bills won.   The Bills D couldn't pressure Mahomes in the AFCCG, and KC won.  In the Super Bowl, the Eagles harassed Mahomes while the game was in doubt -- and Mahomes played more like Mitch Trubisky.  

I'm not against fixing the Dline and getting an elite talent but you need playmakers on both sides of the ball to win the Superbowl. 

[RyanC883]

23 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

The 5 teams with the lowest passing % were Philly (44%), Baltimore (46.5%), GB (49%), Buffalo (51%) and Pitt (51.5%).  Det was 8th (53%) and Wash 7th (52.5%).  All playoff teams.

 

Even if 65% of the passing plays are to WRs, that equates to about 33% of our plays.  Considering we tend to have 3-4 WRs in the pattern, is it really worth 20-25 million to just one of those top  3-4 receivers?  I'd rather give Cook 15 mill for 3 years as he is critical to both the rushing and passing game. 

 

 

 

These are great stats and helpful.  Esp considering the 3-4 WR lineup.  This makes picking the right WR critical.  An expensive WR has to be one that draws coverage, and your other WRs have to be able to beat CB2, 3, etc one on one.  Too often everyone was covered this year, forcing JA to hold onto the ball.  Whether that means we need a guy priced like Higgins or not to open things up I'm not sure.  I don't think Cooper is the answer.  perhaps Slayton?  

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, SoTier said:

It's different with young or less talented QBs, but Allen is a great veteran.  He can get by without having a world-class speed WR. 

 

Sure, he can. But why is our goal for our all-world QB to "get by" with his pass catchers? The goal should be for him to dominate and steamroll the competition and leave no doubt.

 

Seems like some people are stuck on semantics. It is of course possible for the Bills to win the Super Bowl without a top tier pass catcher. Just like it's possible for Nick Foles to win a Super Bowl. But what we're talking about is not what's possible but what's likely. And recent Super Bowl history plus recent Bills history would tell you that it is more likely we will get to the Super Bowl if we have a top tier pass catcher.

[Magox]

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I would stay away from dynasties in these discussions. Dynasties break all the rules, they're not good comparisons. We would need an all-time great coaching staff to emulate the Pats or Chiefs dynasties. As an example KC won the Super Bowl last year with bad OT play. Does that mean OTs are overrated? Of course not. But they're allowed to break the rules and still compete for a Super Bowl. We'll need to go the more traditional route.

 

So staying away from dynasties (and even the Chiefs and Pats had Tyreek Hill and/or Kelce or Gronkowski during their Super Bowl runs) here are the top tier pass catchers that have reached the Super Bowl in recent years:

 

 

 

 

So you want to exclude what the two most recent and successful dynasties have done?  10 out of the last 25 years, you just want that to just disappear and not count towards this argument?  Well, that's awfully convenient, and no I won't do that.    

 

I listed the last 25 Superbowl winners, and the vast majority of those teams did not have elite boundary WR's.   Most had good, competent ones but not elite top 8 caliber players at that position.   

 

 

Quote

 

We once again fell short this year because Allen's pass catchers let him down on the final drive of the season. 

 

 

You would be hard pressed to find many people that would tell you that the problem with the Bills this past season or in the playoffs or even specifically the Chiefs game and say that one of the top 3 problems with the Bills was the offense.   

 

- Coaching defensive scheme

- Defensive line not getting enough pressure

- DB's getting thrashed

 

Those were the main culprits, not the Bills only being able to generate 29 points against the Chiefs.  Which happened to be the 2nd most they had given up against anyone up until that point.  2nd to the Bills I might add.

 

The Bills scored 29 points against the Chiefs and that is with 2 missed 2 point conversions, meaning they would have had 31.   You want to go ahead and blame Kincaid for dropping that pass?  Fair, he should have caught it but as a whole the offense was not the problem that game. 

 

The crux of this thread is not to diminish the role of the WR, it is to say that the current valuations for WR's are overinflated, I don't see how any logical thinking person can think differently.   As a group, they are overpaid relative to their peers and it's indisputable that it is not necessary to go into FA and pay top tier dollars to grab one.   The only team in the past 25 years to have had a WR account for 10%+ or more of their salary cap has been the Eagles, no other team has come close.  Usually the top tier WR's have either been on their Rookie contract or were reclamation projects such as Keyshawn Johnson was for the Bucs, Brandin Cooks with the Patriots or Odell with the Rams.

 

When you consider the top needs of this team, which is a deep ball safety, a CB opposite of Benford, an IDL, DE and Boundary WR, and you consider how efficient the offense was and how porous the defense this past year specially on third downs and against the Chiefs, and then you look at your Salary cap resources that are left, it's from my perspective borderline insane to think "Let's spend $25 - $30M a year on a WR" when you have all these other bigger glaring holes.

 

I want to address the boundary WR position, but not spending gobs of money in FA.   I think the Bills should go into FA, get a Hollywood Brown or Darius Slayton player and then use one of their premium draft picks and hope to hit on it.  That's a good investment at that position.

 

The majority of the money should go to CB, DE, IDL.    Those are the bigger needs.

 

[Beck Water]

12 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Key role though?  I mean this is the same SB where the Chiefs were losing 34-0 at one point thanks to the smothering DL of the Eagles.   
 

No disrespect Beck, but Duke Williams could have replaced DeVonta Smith that game and KC still gets slaughtered.  

 

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree on that one. 

I don't think the Chiefs would have worried a bit about Duke Williams, and I don't think he'd have managed to haul in the TD pass that made it 34-0.  
I don't think the Chiefs would have worried a bit about some JAG substitute for AJ Brown, either.

 

12 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Also, I am confused by your statement of Bills being 0-2 in getting immediate contributions on 1st and 2nd round receivers.  Who are the 1st and 2nd round guys?

 

I used the term "receivers" not "wide receivers" advisedly.  I'm referring to Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman.

Don't get me wrong, I haven't given up - they've both shown flashes - but they have GOT to take a big step next year for us to have what we need, both of them.

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

55 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

That's fair. I don't think you should spend every thing on an elite one but I also don't believe that just cause they had the number 1 offense last year it is good enough. 

 

My take is that as good as the offense was with the everyone eats thinking does work til it doesn't. I'm off the belief that had they had an elite pass catcher, a TE or WR they make the Superbowl this past season. 

 

No disrespect bud, but when didn't it work? 

 

We put up 29 in the AFCCG against a stingy defense with one of the top DC's and against a team that had not scored 30 themselves the whole season.  And consider this...in the 4th, the Bills were already in FG range and up 1 with a chance to get a TD and go up 2 scores.  Instead the refs stole the possession from us, not once, but twice within the same 4 down series.  Kincaid had the first on 2nd down and then Allen again got the first on the 4th down.  In both plays one ref spotted the first and was overturned by another ref.  Chiefs would turnaround and score a TD and 2 point conversion making this at minimum an 11 point swing in the 4 quarter and quite possibly a 15 point swing (if we had continued on for a TD) in a game we scored 29 in and still lost by 3.  

 

And honestly, saying it works until it doesn't is something you can say about every team who loses a game in the playoffs about any topic you want about said team.  Because whatever they did worked until it didn't when their season ended.  

Edited Monday at 08:05 PM by Alphadawg7

[The Jokeman]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

AJ Brown has 4031 yards and 25 TDs in 3 years with Philly. Where they have been to the playoffs 3 times, the SB twice and won a ring once.

 

Yeah, I’d say he was a key contributor and that is super production. lol.

My point being it takes a team to win a Super Bowl, the Bills defense isn't anywhere near as talented as the Eagles defense so even if the Bills have AJ Brown on it's team as it is today I doubt it will get us any closer to the Super Bowl we have been thus far. 

[Jrb1979]

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No disrespect bud, but when didn't it work? 

 

We put up 29 in the AFCCG against a stingy defense with one of the top DC's and against a team that had not scored 30 themselves the whole season.  And consider this...in the 4th, the Bills were already in FG range and up 1 with a chance to get a TD and go up 2 scores.  Instead the refs stole the possession from us, not once, but twice within the same 4 down series.  Kincaid had the first on 2nd down and then Allen again got the first on the 4th down.  In both plays one ref spotted the first and was overturned by another ref.  Chiefs would turnaround and score a TD and 2 point conversion making this at minimum an 11 point swing in the 4 quarter and quite possibly a 15 point swing (if we had continued on for a TD) in a game we scored 29 in and still lost by 3.  

 

And honestly, saying it works until it doesn't is something you can say about every team who loses a game in the playoffs about any topic you want about said team.  Because whatever they did worked until it didn't when their season ended.  

Yeah they lost by 3 and the offense was clicking for the majority of the game. It was working til when they needed a big play at the end of the game for a first down. That is when you need a Chase type to make a play. 

 

Look at the Eagles, when they needed that big play they went to Barkley or Brown. 

5 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

My point being it takes a team to win a Super Bowl, the Bills defense isn't anywhere near as talented as the Eagles defense so even if the Bills have AJ Brown on it's team as it is today I doubt it will get us any closer to the Super Bowl we have been thus far. 

It also takes playmakers on both sides of the ball to win.  The Eagles had that. They had a dominant Dline but also elite talent on offense too. 

[HappyDays]

35 minutes ago, Magox said:

So you want to exclude what the two most recent and successful dynasties have done? 

 

Yeah. Look at their coaching staffs and then look at ours. I'm sorry but there's no comparison. The Eagles are a better comparison for what we need to do. They have an all star roster with two top tier pass catchers. That's going to be our most likely path to success.

 

37 minutes ago, Magox said:

I listed the last 25 Superbowl winners

 

More than 10 years back might as well be ancient history in the NFL. And I'm trying to be fair, I'm looking at all Super Bowl participants not just Super Bowl winners. The participants in recent Super Bowls have all had a pass catcher that at the time was very clearly a top tier weapon. KC this year was really the lone exception.

 

40 minutes ago, Magox said:

You would be hard pressed to find many people that would tell you that the problem with the Bills this past season or in the playoffs or even specifically the Chiefs game and say that one of the top 3 problems with the Bills was the offense.   

 

- Coaching defensive scheme

- Defensive line not getting enough pressure

- DB's getting thrashed

 

Agreed the defensive scheme/coaching was the biggest problem. There's only one possible change there and it isn't happening so that's that. Disagree that DL pressure was a big problem. Mahomes was getting the ball out in less than 2 seconds. Our contain rush was certainly poor but again that's coaching. DBs were a huge issue in this game and I hope we make some big investments in the secondary, but we've had multiple all-pros in the secondary and still given up ridiculous production in the playoffs.

 

So of those 3 concerns the secondary is the only one where I think we can make meaningful improvements this offseason. None of that means the offense was good enough. Allen has had the ball in his hands last in two consecutive playoff games and we couldn't punch it in. That should be the dream scenario with an elite QB but he needs help around him to make it count.

[Alphadawg7]

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

Well, we'll have to agree to disagree on that one. 

I don't think the Chiefs would have worried a bit about Duke Williams, and I don't think he'd have managed to haul in the TD pass that made it 34-0.  
I don't think the Chiefs would have worried a bit about some JAG substitute for AJ Brown, either.

 

Agree, no way Duke makes that TD...but the point is the TD haul had no impact on the game result as it was a blow out with or without that play.  And if they don't score on that one pass doesn't mean they dont still score a different way that same drive with AJ, Saquan, Goeddert, Hurts on the team still. 

 

I don't agree though that it changes much about AJ Brown as the same players are covering AJ Brown whether Smith is in the game or not.  

 

7 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

 

I used the term "receivers" not "wide receivers" advisedly.  I'm referring to Dalton Kincaid and Keon Coleman.

Don't get me wrong, I haven't given up - they've both shown flashes - but they have GOT to take a big step next year for us to have what we need, both of them.

 

 

 

Gotcha and yeah, that is who I thought you were referring to when you mentioned they didn't make an impact out the gate. My counters was that Kincaid did come out the gate strong though as he had the 4th most Receptions by a rookie TE in NFL history and 10th most yards.  His 2nd year wasn't the step we all expected in this offense, but he did come out strong as a rookie and seemed on a strong trajectory to where our expectations were noticeably higher this year for him.  And personally I think Keon was starting to do so before he got hurt which then seemed to kind of set him back.  

 

I do agree with you that we need them to keep developing and take another step this year as part of our young core of the offense.  And I personally have confidence they can, especially once we inevitably add a downfield threat to the mix to shore up what the offense is missing.  

 

Kincaid it turns out did have some knee issues inhibiting him this season as well, so I do think injuries were a factor in both their seasons this year too.  I think both will benefit from being healthy again and having someone who can threaten downfield which I am certain we will add this offseason.  If we land a big fish like Higgins or a trade for DK, then they should benefit greatly.  But I also think they will benefit a lot from someone like Hollywood Brown, Slayton or a rookie who is capable of contributing early.  

 

 

[Alphadawg7]

17 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

Yeah they lost by 3 and the offense was clicking for the majority of the game. It was working til when they needed a big play at the end of the game for a first down. That is when you need a Chase type to make a play. 

 

They needed that play because the refs flipped the game when they stole our first down twice on the same series.  That was an 11 to 15 point swing in a game we lost by 3.  

 

And it was Josh Allen who shifted the protection to the wrong side.  You do know that he had Samuel open on that series but had a pass knocked down at LOS.  He then had both Shakir and Kincaid wide open on 4th down, one short for sure first down and one deep for a huge play and it was Allen who didn't make the play because he shifted the protection to the wrong side.  

 

So no, it wasn't that we needed Chase...we needed the refs to not F us and then we needed Allen to not shift the coverage to wrong side because he had 2 guys wide open.  

 

17 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

 

Look at the Eagles, when they needed that big play they went to Barkley or Brown. 

It also takes playmakers on both sides of the ball to win.  The Eagles had that. They had a dominant Dline but also elite talent on offense too. 

 

 

Eagles got back to the SB and won it because they rebuilt one of the worst defenses into the number 1 defense in the NFL this year and added an MVP worthy RB who had one of the greatest single seasons in history didn't hurt either.