The overvaluation of Wide receivers

[FireChans]

6 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Was it AJ that got his team the ring or his defense as he had 3 catches for 48 yards and a TD that game, would you call that super production? 

AJ Brown has 4031 yards and 25 TDs in 3 years with Philly. Where they have been to the playoffs 3 times, the SB twice and won a ring once.

 

Yeah, I’d say he was a key contributor and that is super production. lol.

[Magox]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Meh, I think too much is being stated on elite vs blue chip vs #1.

 

Ultimately, you showed a lot of SB winning WR's that imo would get paid massive dollars in today's FA. So maybe they aren't overrated.

 

You are discarding these guys for having less than 1000 yards, but we are sitting here debating if Shakir is worth $20M for 800+ yards lol.

 

You're not understanding the argument.   Most of those receivers were not elite/blue chip guys and most of the top receivers for each of those teams were on their rookie year contract or were not seen as upper end #1's that were acquired via FA.       I'm not arguing that some of those that were solid WR's (not the elite ones) wouldn't fetch $20 - $25M a year in today's market, they would and in most cases it would be a mistake to pay that.  Keyshawn, Colston, Alshon Jeffery, Brandin Cooks, Plaxico Burris, Deion Branch, JuJu, Gordon, Baldwin, Jacoby Jones, Hines Ward and Qadry Ismail, these were the receivers I didn't consider to be elite WR's.  If those guys in became available for $20 - $25M, the only ones I would have considered out of that group would have been Jeffery, Burris, Ward and Cook and not at $25M but much closer to $20M.   

 

Also, this crazed WR inflation that we are seeing today hasn't been a persistent ongoing phenomena but a recent one, hence the topic.   Valuations for WR's weren't out of wack back then, it's not until just over the past few years that nearly half the league has a WR at around 10%+ of their salary cap to a singular player at this position.   

 

Every team has their formula and how they want to construct their team, but you'd be hard pressed to find one outside of Philadelphia this past year that spent 10% of their cap on one.    I'd bet that if you looked at their top WR contract and what they were paid relative to the team's salary cap that on average the top WR was paid much closer to 6% which would be about half of what it would take today to acquire one via FA.

 

And, who is debating Shakir for $20M?  You're creating these imaginary phantoms and wanting to argue about them.

[FireChans]

Just now, Magox said:

And, who is debating Shakir for $20M?  You're creating these imaginary phantoms and wanting to argue about them.

Look at the board broski.

 

On 2/14/2025 at 9:49 AM, NoName said:

The article also says that based on Spotrac, the four players are projected to get the following contracts:

• Shakir 19.3 mil per year (it didn't state years)

[Jrb1979]

9 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

Was it AJ that got his team the ring or his defense as he had 3 catches for 48 yards and a TD that game, would you call that super production? 

The thing that many overlook and it was in the article I linked. Teams that didn't have a true number 1 WR had a dominant TE instead. Either way teams that won had either a TE or WR that was the go to guy 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Magox said:

Every team has their formula and how they want to construct their team, but you'd be hard pressed to find one outside of Philadelphia this past year that spent 10% of their cap on one.

See last year we had this same argument, and at that time, folks  said "no one has won with big spending on WR's."

 

Now, of course, the team that wins does, and you'd think that would change the take a bit lol.

[Alphadawg7]

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

I mean, if you think it’s the correct strategy to have Josh put his body on the line every season, resulting in multiple injuries, including breaking his hand week 1 that limited him for half the season, that’s your prerogative.

 

Josh took less punishment this year than any season he has been a pro, so this is just taking one play, a play where Josh did not have to do what he did but still did it in the first game of the season and exaggerating it to represent something the season wasn't.  

 

There will never be a season in Allens prime where he doesn't take some hits, that is just never going to change even if we had Moss, Rice, and Megatron as our 3 WR's.  

 

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

I think it’s a complete and utter mistake. Josh won MVP in large part because he brought this group where he did. Because HE was the offensive engine.

 

I mean this is exactly what I said would happen if the Bills still had a top 5 offense (ended up being #1 in AFC and 16th best all time) that the doom and gloomers would just again say "Its all Allen".  

 

And lets be real, if Allen and the Bills had this exact same season but had a "Chase" like WR on the team, you would instead be saying see I told you he needed that elite WR.

 

The truth is, no matter what the offense accomplishes...no matter Josh accomplishes...you and others will say "Its all Josh" until you get the WR's you want.  Only then will you guys start to give credit to others, when the others are the players you want.  

 

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

There was once a QB who had his best season, an MVP season, with a diminished stable of weapons. 2 years later, he was a shell of himself.

 

Oh come on man, even you know that Cam Newton is not remotely close to Josh as an actual QB.  This lazy and played out comparison needs to stop.  Yes, they can be dangerous runners of the football in both an athletic and a physical way, but the similarities literally stop there.  Newtons game went south because he didn't have the ability to play at a high level as his physical advantages started to shift.  

 

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

“We don’t really need a Jamar Chase, our offense was great without him” is really really shocking to hear. Just expect Josh to carry the JAG brigade and never turn it over and throw himself over linebackers forever.

 

Yet...Josh Allen has been 10x more durable than Burrow.  Bengals have missed the playoffs 2 years in a row where Allen and Bills have been the 2nd seed both those years.  Bills were a ref screw job away from reaching the SB this year when the Bengals can't even make the playoffs.  The Bills scored more points than the Bengals despite the Bengals having no defense and  had to throw all year and had to go balls to the wall every game and for all 17 games...while the Bills coasted in the 2nd half of many games as they had the most wins by 20+ in NFL history and Allen sat week 17.  Allen also won his first MVP, Burrow hasn't even been a legit finalist for one.  

 

So yeah, doesn't seem like Allen "needed" Chase by any stretch of the imagination.  

 

Meanwhile...Chiefs final 2 seasons with Hill...Blown out in SB by Bucs defense and shut down by Bengals in AFCCG.  3 years after trading Hill and having no "Chase"  they had 3 straight SB births with 2 wins.  Patriots with no Chase and JAG WR's, 6 Super Bowl wins...with the GOAT Moss plus Welker ...no SB wins and shut down in the Super Bowl.

 

Bills with prime Diggs only even reached the AFCCG once in 2021.  Without Diggs, Josh MVP and Bills were a screw job away from the SB thanks to the refs flipping the game in the 4th taking 2 first downs away on the same 4 down series.  

 

The only thing shocking is how you still want to insist we do "need" a Chase.  Would it be great if we drafted someone that turned into a comparable to Chase, absolutely...to still continue to insist we "need" one when all facts, statistics, and history say we don't is mind boggling.  

 

 

2 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

I wouldn’t touch Shakir at $20M AAV though, would you?

 

I mean he is better than Edelman and the Pats won 3 SB's with Edelman.  And as I mentioned above, 0-2 with Moss and Welker getting shut down and losing to a mediocre Giants team twice.

 

So yea, I would pay him that if that is what it took.  But I also do not think he will cost that much, I do think there will be a discount to stay with the Bills as Shakir loves it in Buffalo, loves his teammates, loves Allen, loves the organization, etc.  He is motivated to stay here and the Bills are motivated to keep him.  

 

More importantly, Shakir is a physical receiver and on a 5th round rookie contract.  It will be risky for him to play his deal out and get to FA because an injury impacting his season this year could severely impact his FA value the following year. So there is a lot at risk for him to play under this same deal this year given his style of play.  So Shakir and his team will be motivated to get a deal done now and take less vs what he might get as a FA another year from now because it gives him the financial security he lacks right now for him and his family.  

 

I think 3 years and will come somewhere between $45M or the low 50's.  

[Magox]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Look at the board broski.

 

 

I can't help what others say, I can only speak for myself.

3 minutes ago, Jrb1979 said:

The thing that many overlook and it was in the article I linked. Teams that didn't have a true number 1 WR had a dominant TE instead. Either way teams that won had either a TE or WR that was the go to guy 

 

I have hope that Kincaid will be a really good TE.  Plus the Bills have a very good offensive line, elite QB, upper end slot guy.  It's clear that the offense hasn't been a problem, it's the defense.

[Jrb1979]

3 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I can't help what others say, I can only speak for myself.

 

I have hope that Kincaid will be a really good TE.  Plus the Bills have a very good offensive line, elite QB, upper end slot guy.  It's clear that the offense hasn't been a problem, it's the defense.

It's not a problem for winning in the regular season and it worked for most the playoffs. When you need a big play like they did at the end of the AFC championship game, everyone eats fails more than it succeeds. 

 

 

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Oh come on man, even you know that Cam Newton is not remotely close to Josh as an actual QB

I was actually referring to Mahomes lmao. 
 

I will write a better response to the rest of your stuff later.

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, Magox said:

 

I can't help what others say, I can only speak for myself.

I know you say that, but you’ve weirdly pivoted to “you don’t need an elite #1 blue chip WR to win a Super Bowl,” when that’s really not an argument anyone has made to the contrary.

 

There’s lot of things you don’t need to win a Super Bowl.

 

You don’t need an elite QB. Trent Dilfer won one.

 

You don’t need an elite defense. 2019 Chiefs won one.

 

You don’t need an elite #1 WR. See your previous post.

 

So I don’t really get it.

 

Again, we can point to lots of teams with clear lesser QB’s that have had much more success both in production and win totals after sizable investments in WR. So why are we now talking about needing them to win a Super Bowl?

[FireChans]

37 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

There will never be a season in Allens prime where he doesn't take some hits, that is just never going to change even if we had Moss, Rice, and Megatron as our 3 WR's

Sure but I would argue he’d take less.

 

37 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I mean this is exactly what I said would happen if the Bills still had a top 5 offense (ended up being #1 in AFC and 16th best all time) that the doom and gloomers would just again say "Its all Allen".  

 

And lets be real, if Allen and the Bills had this exact same season but had a "Chase" like WR on the team, you would instead be saying see I told you he needed that elite WR.

 

The truth is, no matter what the offense accomplishes...no matter Josh accomplishes...you and others will say "Its all Josh" until you get the WR's you want.  Only then will you guys start to give credit to others, when the others are the players you want.

Are you arguing Allen didn’t deserve MVP?

 

I would say by definition, the MVP award is the most proof it was “all Allen” possible.

 

My friend, if we wanna play the “exactly what you said” game, didn’t you say that you would be done with WR discussions if anyone could point to a high paid WR1 that won a Super Bowl? I don’t have time to check the tape, but I feel like that was a familiar refrain last offseason.

40 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Oh come on man, even you know that Cam Newton is not remotely close to Josh as an actual QB.  This lazy and played out comparison needs to stop.  Yes, they can be dangerous runners of the football in both an athletic and a physical way, but the similarities literally stop there.  Newtons game went south because he didn't have the ability to play at a high level as his physical advantages started to shift.

As I said, I was talking about Mahomes.

 

His 2022 season with Kelce and Juju was legendary. Won a Super Bowl, was clear cut MVP. Did almost everything.

 

Since then, he has fallen off a cliff play and production wise.

41 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

The only thing shocking is how you still want to insist we do "need" a Chase.  Would it be great if we drafted someone that turned into a comparable to Chase, absolutely...to still continue to insist we "need" one when all facts, statistics, and history say we don't is mind boggling.

I wasn’t trying to say we need a Chase so my mistake. I was trying to say that the argument that 2024 proved that WR’s don’t matter because Chase missed the playoffs and the Bills offense was great despite their WR’s is foolish.

 

43 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

So yea, I would pay him that if that is what it took

Eek.

 

Well we’ll see. I think that’s the exact WR contract that I’d steer away from. But I think the Bills will pay him so we will find out one way or another!

[Matt_In_NH]

59 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

I mean he is better than Edelman

I don't think you can objectively claim this.....

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

There was once a QB who had his best season, an MVP season, with a diminished stable of weapons. 2 years later, he was a shell of himself.

 

There is your original quote here above, and it came after you discussing the punishment Allen takes as a runner...

 

58 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I was actually referring to Mahomes lmao. 

 

Come on man lol, you don't really expect anyone to think that is Mahomes you are discussing and not Cam Newton do you?  Either this is the worst description of Mahomes I have ever seen, or this is clearly Cam Newton you are discussing.  

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

There is your original quote here above, and it came after you discussing the punishment Allen takes as a runner...

 

 

Come on man lol, you don't really expect anyone to think that is Mahomes you are discussing and not Cam Newton do you?  Either this is the worst description of Mahomes I have ever seen, or this is clearly Cam Newton you are discussing.  

Is it inaccurate?

 

Mahomes won MVP, won the SB and was great after trading away Tyreek, and was perfect in the Super Bowl.

 

The next season he had his worst year as a pro. Quickly followed by his second worst year as a pro.
 

True or false?

 

I will admit I may have made it misleading.

[Alphadawg7]

50 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Sure but I would argue he’d take less.

 

No one is going to objet to Allen taking less hits, but my point is that its always going to be part of his game because that is how Allen plays regardless.  But, we would all prefer he take as few as possible.

 

50 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

Are you arguing Allen didn’t deserve MVP?

 

I would say by definition, the MVP award is the most proof it was “all Allen” possible.

 

No that makes no sense.  Allen will be the first to tell you that his MVP was only possible because the guys around him.  Allen won MVP because everyone, especially Allen, bought into the style of play, the philosophy, etc and he stopped being wreckless with the ball, stopped trying to always force it downfield when there was a smarter play to be made to guys who were open.  Basically he started incorporating a lot of what another Brady, Tom Brady, has been saying to him for years.  

 

50 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

My friend, if we wanna play the “exactly what you said” game, didn’t you say that you would be done with WR discussions if anyone could point to a high paid WR1 that won a Super Bowl? I don’t have time to check the tape, but I feel like that was a familiar refrain last offseason.

As I said, I was talking about Mahomes.

 

No not at all what I said.  I never said that no team with a high paid WR ever won a SB.  I said show me a team that went out and spent a fortune to both trade for and pay a WR big money that then turned around and won a SB when people were advocating for such a move for Aiyuk and other rumored available players via trade.  I also pointed out the infrequency of top 5 WR's on SB winning teams the past 30 years during the passing era showing that it was not the "get it and win it" solution everyone was making it out to be.  

 

50 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

His 2022 season with Kelce and Juju was legendary. Won a Super Bowl, was clear cut MVP. Did almost everything.

 

Since then, he has fallen off a cliff play and production wise.

 

Sorry, don't buy you were referencing Mahomes and not Cam lol

 

50 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I wasn’t trying to say we need a Chase so my mistake. I was trying to say that the argument that 2024 proved that WR’s don’t matter because Chase missed the playoffs and the Bills offense was great despite their WR’s is foolish.

 

That is fine, but you are missing the point of others.  No one is saying WR's don't matter...we all know we need to add another guy there.  The push back is that we don't need a "Chase" caliber WR like so many keep pushing for as our "missing piece". 

 

50 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

Eek.

 

Well we’ll see. I think that’s the exact WR contract that I’d steer away from. But I think the Bills will pay him so we will find out one way or another!

 

Well this is where we differ...Shakir is a key piece to this offense and easily the most clutch player for Josh to throw to by a mile.  Keeping him is important to the offense, and without any gaudy WR contracts he is more than affordable especially with the increasing cap.  Shakir can be even better once we add someone who can stretch the field and even further open up where Shakir does his best work.  

Edited Monday at 06:40 PM by Alphadawg7

[tigerthelion]

Don't know what the perfect answer at WR is, but I think paying Shakir 20 million a year seems insane to me.  

 

[FireChans]

Just now, Alphadawg7 said:

I said show me a team that went out and spent a fortune to both trade for and pay a WR big money that then turned around and won a SB

Yeah the Eagles did that. They just had a parade.

 

1 minute ago, Alphadawg7 said:

No that makes no sense.  Allen will be the first to tell you that his MVP was only possible because the guys around him.  Allen won MVP because everyone, especially Allen, bought into the style of play, the philosophy, etc and he stopped being wreckless with the ball, stopped trying to always force it downfield when there was a smarter play to be made to guys who were open.  Basically he started incorporating a lot of what another Brady, Tom Brady, has been saying to him for years.

This makes Allen a nice guy.

 

to me, this point is obvious.

 

Allen, playing with the worst group of receivers since 2018, put up one of his most efficient seasons ever. Sure he had a great RB and a great OL. But Allen won MVP, in part imo, because his supporting cast was weak.

[Alphadawg7]

31 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Is it inaccurate?

 

Mahomes won MVP, won the SB and was great after trading away Tyreek, and was perfect in the Super Bowl.

 

The next season he had his worst year as a pro. Quickly followed by his second worst year as a pro.
 

True or false?

 

I will admit I may have made it misleading.

 

To answer your question...False...in no reality is saying a guy who has gone to 3 straight SB's with a rag tag of weapons as "falling off a cliff".  You gotta understand how crazy that sounds, especially when his entire WR group kept getting hurt this year and he still carried them to a 3rd straight SB, although I do still say the refs are the reason he got by Buffalo this year.  

 

PS:  The 2 seasons before they traded Hill...blown out in SB and shut down in AFCCG by Bengals.  So what do you think Mahomes cares more about?  His stats or his SB trophies?

 

It does however describe Cam Newton with pin point accuracy 😉

Edited Monday at 06:55 PM by Alphadawg7

[Jrb1979]

2 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

No one is going to objet to Allen taking less hits, but my point is that its always going to be part of his game because that is how Allen plays regardless.  But, we would all prefer he take as few as possible.

 

 

No that makes no sense.  Allen will be the first to tell you that his MVP was only possible because the guys around him.  Allen won MVP because everyone, especially Allen, bought into the style of play, the philosophy, etc and he stopped being wreckless with the ball, stopped trying to always force it downfield when there was a smarter play to be made to guys who were open.  Basically he started incorporating a lot of what another Brady, Tom Brady, has been saying to him for years.  

 

 

No not at all what I said.  I never said that no team with a high paid WR ever won a SB.  I said show me a team that went out and spent a fortune to both trade for and pay a WR big money that then turned around and won a SB when people were advocating for such a move for Aiyuk and other rumored available players via trade.  I also pointed out the infrequency of top 5 WR's on SB winning teams the past 30 years during the passing era showing that it was not the "get it and win it" solution everyone was making it out to be.  

 

 

Sorry, don't buy you were referencing Mahomes and not Cam lol

 

 

That is fine, but you are missing the point of others.  No one is saying WR's don't matter...we all know we need to add another guy there.  The push back is that we don't need a "Chase" caliber WR like so many keep pushing for as our "missing piece". 

 

 

Well this is where we differ...Shakir is a key piece to this offense and easily the most clutch player for Josh to throw to by a mile.  Keeping him is important to the offense, and without any gaudy WR contracts he is more than affordable especially with the increasing cap.  Shakir can be even better once we add someone who can stretch the field and even further open up where Shakir does his best work.  

You do need a number 1 pass catcher. Almost every team that has won a Super Bowl either had a number 1 WR or a number 1 TE.  

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Yeah the Eagles did that. They just had a parade.

 

Well we were discussing this before the season began...and did the Eagles really do this?  Because they have had AJ and DeVonta in the seasons past and didn't win the SB.  Last year with an atrocious defense they didn't get close.  

 

Weird thing happened...Eagles added Saquan and put together the #1 defense in the NFL and poof...back in the SB and that defense dismantled KC just like the Bucs did.  And despite scoring 40, the offense didn't put up gaudy production because the defense made that possible for them.  

 

So this isn't the evidence you think it is

 

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

This makes Allen a nice guy.

 

to me, this point is obvious.

 

Allen, playing with the worst group of receivers since 2018, put up one of his most efficient seasons ever. Sure he had a great RB and a great OL. But Allen won MVP, in part imo, because his supporting cast was weak.

 

16th best offense in NFL history and best in Bills history.  But he won because "his cast was weak"?  Allen set multiple individual records...the offense set multiple team records.  But he only won because his "cast was weak"?  The mental gymnastics you will try and do to push for your "Jamar Chase" is getting more creative at least lol

 

 

Edited Monday at 06:52 PM by Alphadawg7