The overvaluation of Wide receivers

[Magox]

This board and for that matter much of the league greatly values the worth of Wide receivers to their teams prospects to having success.   As it stands there are 23 total receivers who make at least $20 million per year of which 11 make more than $25 Million.  Just a couple years ago there were 14 who made $20M+ and just 5 that made $25M+.

 

The rate of inflation for paying receivers has outpaced the rate of the salary cap inflation as a whole.   To put this into perspective, by the time the 2025 season begins nearly half the league will have allocated pretty close to 10% of their entire salary cap towards their star receiver.

 

Justin Jefferson made up 13.7% in 2024

Devante Adams 13.5%

CeeDee Lamb 13.3%

Cooper Kupp 12.8%

AJ Brown 12.5%

Amon-Ra St. Brown 11.8%

Brandon Aiyuk 11.8%

Tyreek Bill 11.8%

Dk Metcalf 11.5%

Deebo Samuel 11.5%

 

Out of which 4 of them made the playoffs this past year.

https://theanalyst.com/2024/09/are-the-highest-paid-wide-receivers-worth-it

 

The league over the past 17 years had steadily increased their rate of passing which justified an increase in the rate of inflation to receivers.    Back in 2005 teams were throwing on average for 203.5 and saw a steady increase all the way to 2020 peaking out at 240.2 yards per game.   Since 2020, teams have began to run the ball more often and more successfully, seeing the passing rate steadily decline to 217.6 yards per game which is a substantial 10% rate of decline in passing yardage over the past 5 years.   It makes sense that teams have evolved and have adjusted to playing more bully ball against teams that were designed to stop passes who employed lighter boxes and base nickel defenses leading to the decline in passing yards.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

 

It's not coincidence that sometime around 2020 NFL teams which was when teams were at their zenith in terms of passing yards had begun to seriously deflate Running back valuations comparatively to the rest of the NFL rate of player personnel pay and began the inflation of wide receiver pay relative to the NFL pay as a whole.

 

The question begs is the rate of pay inflation in the NFL for receivers justified?

 

Before I get into that, I wanted to share some stats.

 

The four teams that threw the ball the least in 2024 was Philadelphia, Baltimore, Green Bay and Buffalo.   All 4 teams were playoff teams, one won the Super Bowl, another went to the AFC championship.  Out of the top 10 teams that passed the ball least 7 made the playoffs.

 

This past year in 2024, out of the top 10 receivers in terms of receiving yards only 3 played in the playoffs, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ladd McConkey.

 

Out of the top 10 of the teams that spent the most for wide receivers in 2024 only 3 made the playoffs. Out of the bottom 17 teams that spent the least in wide receivers in 2024, nearly half of them did make the playoffs.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/wide-receiver/_/year/2024/table/active/sort/cash_total

 

It's clear that for NFL teams to be successful that it is not necessary to have true blue #1 blue chip boundary WR's.  Chiefs, Bills and Ravens are examples of this.  Out of the 14 teams that made the playoffs, only 5 teams have receivers that are being paid over $20M a year.

 

It's evident that the NFL has begun to trend towards running against lighter boxes more and passing the ball less.   It takes a little time for GM's to adjust to realities on the ground, but we are beginning to see the deflationary cycle break in terms of paying playmaking RB's, but we've yet to see this happen in the wide receiver market.  There are traditional factors at play such as basic supply and demand, in which unfortunately for RB's, the supply of RB's are expected to increase through this years RB crop of rookies which may put a damper on the overall RB market and that inversely there aren't that many stellar WR's in this year rookie crop which may prevent a lid for WR's.

 

With all that said, I do expect to see the inflationary rate of pay for Wide receivers to begin to subside sometime in the near future.   I don't advocate for having bottom tier talent at the receiver spot, what I am advocating is that it's not necessary to pay these extreme high wages that eat up so much cap room for a WR, specially in a league that has consistently been trending towards passing the ball less over the past 4 seasons.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Shaw66]

Excellent.  Thanks.

[Matt_In_NH]

People cannot stop talking about "weapons"  even after the Bills broke a lot of points records this year.  Meanwhile the DL is the actual problem.  The NFL GM's have gone too far too with paying way too much for WR's, they don't make the difference in the playoffs.   Bengals have Chase and Higgins, Dolphins have Hill and Waddle and they dont even make the playoffs...the Chiefs have been to three straight SB's, won two with very little at WR.   Yet the WGR crowd and many fans get on thier choo choo train about needs dozens of weapons....its so dumb.

[US Egg]

I’m thinking it’s simply due to the fact that almost 2/3 of offensive plays target WR’s. 

[Dan]

In other words… stay ahead of the curve and pay Cook.  
 

I think we’d be fine with Cooper on the outside.  The only real question is will he be fine with what we’d likely pay him, assuming they extend Cook.  

[FireChans]

9 minutes ago, Magox said:

This board and for that matter much of the league greatly values the worth of Wide receivers to their teams prospects to having success.   As it stands there are 23 total receivers who make at least $20 million per year of which 11 make more than $25 Million.  Just a couple years ago there were 14 who made $20M+ and just 5 that made $25M+.

 

The rate of inflation for paying receivers has outpaced the rate of the salary cap inflation as a whole.   To put this into perspective, by the time the 2025 season begins nearly half the league will have allocated pretty close to 10% of their entire salary cap towards their star receiver.

 

Justin Jefferson made up 13.7% in 2024

Devante Adams 13.5%

CeeDee Lamb 13.3%

Cooper Kupp 12.8%

AJ Brown 12.5%

Amon-Ra St. Brown 11.8%

Brandon Aiyuk 11.8%

Tyreek Bill 11.8%

Dk Metcalf 11.5%

Deebo Samuel 11.5%

 

Out of which 4 of them made the playoffs this past year.

https://theanalyst.com/2024/09/are-the-highest-paid-wide-receivers-worth-it

 

The league over the past 17 years had steadily increased their rate of passing which justified an increase in the rate of inflation to receivers.    Back in 2005 teams were throwing on average for 203.5 and saw a steady increase all the way to 2020 peaking out at 240.2 yards per game.   Since 2020, teams have began to run the ball more often and more successfully, seeing the passing rate steadily decline to 217.6 yards per game which is a substantial 10% rate of decline in passing yardage over the past 5 years.   It makes sense that teams have evolved and have adjusted to playing more bully ball against teams that were designed to stop passes who employed lighter boxes and base nickel defenses leading to the decline in passing yards.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

 

It's not coincidence that sometime around 2020 NFL teams which was when teams were at their zenith in terms of passing yards had begun to seriously deflate Running back valuations comparatively to the rest of the NFL rate of player personnel pay and began the inflation of wide receiver pay relative to the NFL pay as a whole.

 

The question begs is the rate of pay inflation in the NFL for receivers justified?

 

Before I get into that, I wanted to share some stats.

 

The four teams that threw the ball the least in 2024 was Philadelphia, Baltimore, Green Bay and Buffalo.   All 4 teams were playoff teams, one won the Super Bowl, another went to the AFC championship.  Out of the top 10 teams that passed the ball least 7 made the playoffs.

 

This past year in 2024, out of the top 10 receivers in terms of receiving yards only 3 played in the playoffs, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ladd McConkey.

 

Out of the top 10 of the teams that spent the most for wide receivers in 2024 only 3 made the playoffs. Out of the bottom 17 teams that spent the least in wide receivers in 2024, nearly half of them did make the playoffs.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/wide-receiver/_/year/2024/table/active/sort/cash_total

 

It's clear that for NFL teams to be successful that it is not necessary to have true blue #1 blue chip boundary WR's.  Chiefs, Bills and Ravens are examples of this.  Out of the 14 teams that made the playoffs, only 5 teams have receivers that are being paid over $20M a year.

 

It's evident that the NFL has begun to trend towards running against lighter boxes more and passing the ball less.   It takes a little time for GM's to adjust to realities on the ground, but we are beginning to see the deflationary cycle break in terms of paying playmaking RB's, but we've yet to see this happen in the wide receiver market.  There are traditional factors at play such as basic supply and demand, in which unfortunately for RB's, the supply of RB's are expected to increase through this years RB crop of rookies which may put a damper on the overall RB market and that inversely there aren't that many stellar WR's in this year rookie crop which may prevent a lid for WR's.

 

With all that said, I do expect to see the inflationary rate of pay for Wide receivers to begin to subside sometime in the near future.   I don't advocate for having bottom tier talent at the receiver spot, what I am advocating is that it's not necessary to pay these extreme high wages that eat up so much cap room for a WR, specially in a league that has consistently been trending towards passing the ball less over the past 4 seasons.   

 

 

 

 

 

 

Good food for thought.

 

Here’s the challenge though.

 

If you are basing your analysis off being paid, rookie contracts by definition are going to be excluded. So the entire GB recieving group is of course eliminated from this analysis. Devonta Smith isn’t included because his extension hasn’t come in yet. 

 

Devonta Smith is a great WR. His cap hit this season is only $7M because he’s still playing on a rookie deal.

 

The argument that the running teams make the playoffs more is no different than folks arguing a decade ago that the teams with the highest passing yards sometimes missed the playoffs, ergo, we don’t need a QB. It’s faulty analysis. I would bet heavily that the teams that the teams that threw the least in 2024 also had near tops in the league time spent with a lead. The teams that passed the most, like the Bengals, were forced to. That is not necessarily the reason they were bad. Correlation =\= causation.

 

Let’s play your analysis back a different way.

 

5 of the top 12 running backs by rushing yards did not make the postseason. Does this mean that running the ball well is ALSO not really strongly correlated with success? 
 

Or, more likely, does that mean that it’s quite a bit more complicated than “x out of the top y didn’t make the postseason?”

 

5 out of the 10 top QB’s by AAV didn’t make the postseason in 2024. Does this mean that paying QB’s is a mistake and doesn’t help you win?

 

Of course not.

 

The argument I would make about WR’s is that while they are getting paid big bucks now, more and more talented athletes will play WR and enter the draft, and with an artificial ceiling on spending, they will dilute the market. Their value won’t continue to explode because of market forces.

 

Make no mistake though. WRs are very important. Justin Jefferson is a big reason why Sam Darnold revived his career. Stefon Diggs was a big reason that Josh exploded on the scene as a superstar.

 

They will continue to be important. The “middle class” of WR’s like Shakir will be overpaid, but the truly elite guys are going to be worth every penny.

[tigerthelion]

18 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

People cannot stop talking about "weapons"  even after the Bills broke a lot of points records this year.  Meanwhile the DL is the actual problem.  The NFL GM's have gone too far too with paying way too much for WR's, they don't make the difference in the playoffs.   Bengals have Chase and Higgins, Dolphins have Hill and Waddle and they dont even make the playoffs...the Chiefs have been to three straight SB's, won two with very little at WR.   Yet the WGR crowd and many fans get on thier choo choo train about needs dozens of weapons....its so dumb.

I think part of the problem is also that Josh Allen running into 320 pound monsters to eke out fourth down conversions is making things more difficult on offense than it needs to be.  Maybe the Bills don't need a 30 million dollar WR, but having Josh wreck his body over and over isn't ideal , either.  Some sort of legitimate outside threat could save some of those fourth down Josh Allen tumbles, and perhaps mean more first downs, more room in the middle of the field.

Edited Sunday at 05:24 PM by tigerthelion

[SoonerBillsFan]

I'll just say, we need to add somone to break the cover 2 shell and get deep. I don't care if it's a 6th round pick if they can be dependable.  Re- sign Hollins and let's get to work.

Edited Sunday at 05:43 PM by SoonerBillsFan

[Low Positive]

11 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Good food for thought.

 

Here’s the challenge though.

 

If you are basing your analysis off being paid, rookie contracts by definition are going to be excluded. So the entire GB recieving group is of course eliminated from this analysis. Devonta Smith isn’t included because his extension hasn’t come in yet. 

 

Devonta Smith is a great WR. His cap hit this season is only $7M because he’s still playing on a rookie deal.

 

The argument that the running teams make the playoffs more is no different than folks arguing a decade ago that the teams with the highest passing yards sometimes missed the playoffs, ergo, we don’t need a QB. It’s faulty analysis. I would bet heavily that the teams that the teams that threw the least in 2024 also had near tops in the league time spent with a lead. The teams that passed the most, like the Bengals, were forced to. That is not necessarily the reason they were bad. Correlation =\= causation.

 

Let’s play your analysis back a different way.

 

5 of the top 12 running backs by rushing yards did not make the postseason. Does this mean that running the ball well is ALSO not really strongly correlated with success? 
 

Or, more likely, does that mean that it’s quite a bit more complicated than “x out of the top y didn’t make the postseason?”

 

5 out of the 10 top QB’s by AAV didn’t make the postseason in 2024. Does this mean that paying QB’s is a mistake and doesn’t help you win?

 

Of course not.

 

The argument I would make about WR’s is that while they are getting paid big bucks now, more and more talented athletes will play WR and enter the draft, and with an artificial ceiling on spending, they will dilute the market. Their value won’t continue to explode because of market forces.

 

Make no mistake though. WRs are very important. Justin Jefferson is a big reason why Sam Darnold revived his career. Stefon Diggs was a big reason that Josh exploded on the scene as a superstar.

 

They will continue to be important. The “middle class” of WR’s like Shakir will be overpaid, but the truly elite guys are going to be worth every penny.

Devonta Smith has been extended. They just added 4 void years to kick the can down the road.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/72390/devonta-smith

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Devonta Smith has been extended. They just added 4 void years to kick the can down the road.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/72390/devonta-smith

He’s been extended but his cap hit is still low in part because they added void years, but also because he is still technically in his rookie deal, which ran through 2024 with his fifth year option in 2025.

It’s the same reason Josh had a $10M cap hit in 2021. His extension didn’t really kick in from a cap hit standpoint until this season.

[SoonerBillsFan]

15 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Devonta Smith has been extended. They just added 4 void years to kick the can down the road.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/72390/devonta-smith

****....

[BarleyNY]

35 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Devonta Smith has been extended. They just added 4 void years to kick the can down the road.

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/player/_/id/72390/devonta-smith

That’s standard operating procedure for the Eagles so they can maximize cash spend. 

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, Magox said:

This board and for that matter much of the league greatly values the worth of Wide receivers to their teams prospects to having success.   As it stands there are 23 total receivers who make at least $20 million per year of which 11 make more than $25 Million.  Just a couple years ago there were 14 who made $20M+ and just 5 that made $25M+.

 

The rate of inflation for paying receivers has outpaced the rate of the salary cap inflation as a whole.   To put this into perspective, by the time the 2025 season begins nearly half the league will have allocated pretty close to 10% of their entire salary cap towards their star receiver.

 

Justin Jefferson made up 13.7% in 2024

Devante Adams 13.5%

CeeDee Lamb 13.3%

Cooper Kupp 12.8%

AJ Brown 12.5%

Amon-Ra St. Brown 11.8%

Brandon Aiyuk 11.8%

Tyreek Bill 11.8%   <===========================================

Dk Metcalf 11.5%

Deebo Samuel 11.5%

 

Out of which 4 of them made the playoffs this past year.

https://theanalyst.com/2024/09/are-the-highest-paid-wide-receivers-worth-it

 

The league over the past 17 years had steadily increased their rate of passing which justified an increase in the rate of inflation to receivers.    Back in 2005 teams were throwing on average for 203.5 and saw a steady increase all the way to 2020 peaking out at 240.2 yards per game.   Since 2020, teams have began to run the ball more often and more successfully, seeing the passing rate steadily decline to 217.6 yards per game which is a substantial 10% rate of decline in passing yardage over the past 5 years.   It makes sense that teams have evolved and have adjusted to playing more bully ball against teams that were designed to stop passes who employed lighter boxes and base nickel defenses leading to the decline in passing yards.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/NFL/passing.htm

 

It's not coincidence that sometime around 2020 NFL teams which was when teams were at their zenith in terms of passing yards had begun to seriously deflate Running back valuations comparatively to the rest of the NFL rate of player personnel pay and began the inflation of wide receiver pay relative to the NFL pay as a whole.

 

The question begs is the rate of pay inflation in the NFL for receivers justified?

 

Before I get into that, I wanted to share some stats.

 

The four teams that threw the ball the least in 2024 was Philadelphia, Baltimore, Green Bay and Buffalo.   All 4 teams were playoff teams, one won the Super Bowl, another went to the AFC championship.  Out of the top 10 teams that passed the ball least 7 made the playoffs.

 

This past year in 2024, out of the top 10 receivers in terms of receiving yards only 3 played in the playoffs, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Ladd McConkey.

 

Out of the top 10 of the teams that spent the most for wide receivers in 2024 only 3 made the playoffs. Out of the bottom 17 teams that spent the least in wide receivers in 2024, nearly half of them did make the playoffs.  

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/position/wide-receiver/_/year/2024/table/active/sort/cash_total

 

It's clear that for NFL teams to be successful that it is not necessary to have true blue #1 blue chip boundary WR's.  Chiefs, Bills and Ravens are examples of this.  Out of the 14 teams that made the playoffs, only 5 teams have receivers that are being paid over $20M a year.

 

It's evident that the NFL has begun to trend towards running against lighter boxes more and passing the ball less.   It takes a little time for GM's to adjust to realities on the ground, but we are beginning to see the deflationary cycle break in terms of paying playmaking RB's, but we've yet to see this happen in the wide receiver market.  There are traditional factors at play such as basic supply and demand, in which unfortunately for RB's, the supply of RB's are expected to increase through this years RB crop of rookies which may put a damper on the overall RB market and that inversely there aren't that many stellar WR's in this year rookie crop which may prevent a lid for WR's.

 

With all that said, I do expect to see the inflationary rate of pay for Wide receivers to begin to subside sometime in the near future.   I don't advocate for having bottom tier talent at the receiver spot, what I am advocating is that it's not necessary to pay these extreme high wages that eat up so much cap room for a WR, specially in a league that has consistently been trending towards passing the ball less over the past 4 seasons.   

 

Really good post, but you gotta fix that typo

Other than that, I gotta point out that clutch WR play did seem to play a key role in winning that Superbowl for Davonta Smith - who was able to make some of those key receptions because the Chiefs were busy trying to smother AJ Brown.   

 

I think your assessment means it's even more critical to identify WR talent that can contribute immediately in the draft - and so far the Bills are 0 for 2 in getting immediate contributions from their 1st and 2nd round receiver picks.

Edited Sunday at 06:26 PM by Beck Water

[GASabresIUFan]

Sounds to me that you draft a couple WRs every year and don’t give anyone a 2nd contract.

Edited Monday at 12:14 AM by GASabresIUFan

[Don Otreply]

Thanx Magox, 

 

that was good food for thought, it looks a little like our Bills are riding near the front of this trend…, 

[TheBeaneBandit]

1 hour ago, Dan said:

In other words… stay ahead of the curve and pay Cook.  
 

I think we’d be fine with Cooper on the outside.  The only real question is will he be fine with what we’d likely pay him, assuming they extend Cook.  

I'm good with Cooper. You don't need a 25-35M guy but you still need talented players. 

[ProcessTruster]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

People cannot stop talking about "weapons"  even after the Bills broke a lot of points records this year.  Meanwhile the DL is the actual problem.  The NFL GM's have gone too far too with paying way too much for WR's, they don't make the difference in the playoffs.   Bengals have Chase and Higgins, Dolphins have Hill and Waddle and they dont even make the playoffs...the Chiefs have been to three straight SB's, won two with very little at WR.   Yet the WGR crowd and many fans get on thier choo choo train about needs dozens of weapons....its so dumb.

I wouldn't worry on it.   Beane will not be breaking the bank on a WR this season.   He'll prob take a solid run at Cooper but not more than $15 I am guessing; Coopers stock must have fallen based on last years production and his age.   We shall see.    The Bills are a "draft and develop" organization for the most part, so they will work to get Coleman to the next level, probably pay Shakir, get Kincaid and Samuel 100% healthy and prob draft a speed guy or two.   I don't see much more than that.  

 

Wild card is how high they go to keep Cook.  Not THAT will be interesting. 

[Magox]

2 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Sounds to me that you draft a couple WRs ever year and don’t give anyone a 2nd contract.

I think every situation and team is unique, unique in that teams are constructed differently and have different needs, the reality is that there are many factors at play.

 

However, at these overinflated WR rates, from a probability standpoint it wouldn’t make sense for most teams to pay top tier WR rates.  
 

Which is why I do think putting resources in premium draft picks do make sense for WR’s.  If you can get 4 to 5 really good years from a WR without having to pay the overinflated rate then obviously that would be very beneficial for that team.    
 

I do think WR’s are very valuable to most teams and from my perspective the way this league is built I believe it to be the 3rd  or 4th most important position grouping even though they are the clear 2nd highest paid group.

 

I think it’s logical that the QB is the highest paid primarily to how often he handles the ball and the outcomes of those 32 attempts are literally in his hands.

 

Top tier WR’s will be targeted around 8-12 times a game which gives them around 5-8 times they actually come down with the ball.    
 

I think it’s more logical for most teams to spend the 2nd most money by position groupings on the defensive line more specifically Defensive end.  They are the primary people tasked at disrupting the most valuable position QB on passing plays and are used in a large extent to stop the run.

I generally agree with what you said

 

[wppete]

Justin Jefferson is worth every penny. 

[FireChans]

12 minutes ago, Magox said:

I think every situation and team is unique, unique in that teams are constructed differently and have different needs, the reality is that there are many factors at play.

 

However, at these overinflated WR rates, from a probability standpoint it wouldn’t make sense for most teams to pay top tier WR rates.  
 

Which is why I do think putting resources in premium draft picks do make sense for WR’s.  If you can get 4 to 5 really good years from a WR without having to pay the overinflated rate then obviously that would be very beneficial for that team.    
 

I do think WR’s are very valuable to most teams and from my perspective the way this league is built I believe it to be the 3rd  or 4th most important position grouping even though they are the clear 2nd highest paid group.

 

I think it’s logical that the QB is the highest paid primarily to how often he handles the ball and the outcomes of those 32 attempts are literally in his hands.

 

Top tier WR’s will be targeted around 8-12 times a game which gives them around 5-8 times they actually come down with the ball.    
 

I think it’s more logical for most teams to spend the 2nd most money by position groupings on the defensive line more specifically Defensive end.  They are the primary people tasked at disrupting the most valuable position QB on passing plays and are used in a large extent to stop the run.

I generally agree with what you said

 

What you are missing is that having good to great WR’s helps the most important position on the field.

 

Despite Barkley and Henry having career years, in both of their team’s final games of the year, they didn’t do much. It came down to the QB passing.

 

Does anyone think Jalen Hurts is a good enough QB to play in 2 SB’s in 3 years without an absolute elite WR1 and WR2?

 

Does anyone think Tua is a playoff QB without Tyreek and Waddle?

 

Does anyone think Brock Purdy is a multi conference championship QB without his gaggle of weapons?

 

Sure, the OL matters a lot too, but that’s a 5 position group so their numbers get spread out. But LTs and to a lesser extent RT’s get big bucks too.

 

The other thing is efficiency. Jamar Chase had a great 9.8 yard per target. Barkley and Henry had 6.0 and 6.1 yards per touch.

 

You are quite literally getting almost 40% more yards just THROWING AT CHASE, not even necessarily completions, than handing off or completing passes to backs. 
 

 

Edited Sunday at 06:50 PM by FireChans