Shakir, Benford, Cook and Bernard: Who Gets a Contract Extension?

[DapperCam]

Am I the only one hesitant to throw big money at Benford? He had a good year, but it’s a small sample size of top play. He’s not a ball hawk. He’s been very injury prone (even not considering the concussions). And it seems he plays best in zone and gets burned sometimes in man.

 

It actually reminds me a lot of Josh Norman who was elite in McDermott’s system in Carolina, signed a huge deal and busted for the Redskins. He could only play zone.

 

Especially if the Bills want to start playing more aggressive and sprinkling in man coverage more often I would not throw a top-5 CB contract at Benford.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, DapperCam said:

Am I the only one hesitant to throw big money at Benford? He had a good year, but it’s a small sample size of top play. He’s not a ball hawk. He’s been very injury prone (even not considering the concussions). And it seems he plays best in zone and gets burned sometimes in man.

 

It actually reminds me a lot of Josh Norman who was elite in McDermott’s system in Carolina, signed a huge deal and busted for the Redskins. He could only play zone.

 

Especially if the Bills want to start playing more aggressive and sprinkling in man coverage more often I would not throw a top-5 CB contract at Benford.

 

He actually does not get burned in man. He is pretty good in man and the analytics back that up. He is not a Josh Norman redux (Norman was an elite zone player, but below average in man). He is really good. Not top 5 good but that is just the market. If a guy is top 12 or so (Benford is) then when they come up they go into the top 5 AAV and then fall down again as other guys come up. Without the health issues I'd have no concerns paying him. He is worth the money. 

 

But the concussions are a real concern. I would have done him as a priority this offseason before the two concussions in two weeks. Now I am a little more reluctant.

[BuffBillsForLife]

Benford and Bernard.  If I can only pick one then Benford.

[JakeFrommStateFarm]

22.6 million for a 6th round zone corner is nuts. Let him go. He's a system guy.

 

20 million/year for a guy with 1500 yards and 7 tds in 3 years is even more nutty.

 

Let Shakir go he is just a JAG. In fact his replacement is already on the roster in Coleman. Let Coleman play fulltime at slot.

 

The 2 guys to sign are Bernard at 6.7 and Cook at around 14M.

 

Both would be realy good value and you don't let your 2nd best player on offense walk

Edited February 15 by JakeFrommStateFarm

[YoloinOhio]

Benford

[DapperCam]

39 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He actually does not get burned in man. He is pretty good in man and the analytics back that up. He is not a Josh Norman redux (Norman was an elite zone player, but below average in man). He is really good. Not top 5 good but that is just the market. If a guy is top 12 or so (Benford is) then when they come up they go into the top 5 AAV and then fall down again as other guys come up. Without the health issues I'd have no concerns paying him. He is worth the money. 

 

But the concussions are a real concern. I would have done him as a priority this offseason before the two concussions in two weeks. Now I am a little more reluctant.

I’d be interested in those statistics, because I remember a few specific instances this season of Benford getting burned in man on third down.

 

The most recent memory is vs the Broncos at the end of the first half he took a defensive holding and then gave up a 20 yard completion in the same drive. Pretty sure those were man, but I’m too lazy to check.

[BananaB]

Shakir and Bernard. I think Benford is a bit overrated. Jmo. We need to get better in the secondary and he’s just the best out of a really mediocre group. I worry about Bernards and Benfords health, both seem to miss time. 

[akcash]

Benford for me is the guy to keep. I like Shakir, Bernard and Cook. To me Benford slots in as a career Bill #2 maybe #1 corner. RB is a dime a dozen. Always has been always will be. I think Coleman has a great skill set to be a big slot. He’s more quick thank fast, he’s extremely football smart and can body people. I think he was always destined to end up inside. I love Shakir but I want a team full of big people. Bernard I love him but he’s small and we need to have size, athletic ability and instincts in the middle. We need to take steps to having a front 7 that is more physical. Everybody needs to be bigger and stronger without sacrificing speed and athletic ability. 
 

 

 

2 minutes ago, akcash said:

Benford for me is the guy to keep. I like Shakir, Bernard and Cook. To me Benford slots in as a career Bill #2 maybe #1 corner. RB is a dime a dozen. Always has been always will be. I think Coleman has a great skill set to be a big slot. He’s more quick thank fast, he’s extremely football smart and can body people. I think he was always destined to end up inside. I love Shakir but I want a team full of big people. Bernard I love him but he’s small and we need to have size, athletic ability and instincts in the middle. We need to take steps to having a front 7 that is more physical. Everybody needs to be bigger and stronger without sacrificing speed and athletic ability. 
 

 

 

 

that’s just my opinion. I will say that there is definitely an argument to ink all 4 and you could do a lot worse. 

[GunnerBill]

13 hours ago, DapperCam said:

I’d be interested in those statistics, because I remember a few specific instances this season of Benford getting burned in man on third down.

 

The most recent memory is vs the Broncos at the end of the first half he took a defensive holding and then gave up a 20 yard completion in the same drive. Pretty sure those were man, but I’m too lazy to check.

 

He had a 75% success rate in man in 2024 (that is regular season don't have a breakdown in playoffs). That isn't quite elite (his numbers in zone are elite) but its pretty good. In terms of separation allowed in man coverage in 2024 he was pretty much on par with Trent McDuffie and better than Sauce Gardner (though asked to play fewer man snaps than both I should say for the sake of full transparency.)

 

I honestly think what this thread tells me is Benford's 2024 performance is very much still underrated by Bills fans and I think it is because he was a 6th round pick. Had he been picked round 1 and put up the same performance he did in 2024 I don't think anyone would be questioning whether he is worth what he is gonna get paid. But because he went 6th round and we have seen McDermott get serviceable play out of the likes of Wallace, Jackson, Hamlin as late day 3/UDFA guys the presumption is just Benford is a slightly better version of that kind of system player. But athletically he is much closer to Kaiir Elam (a first round pick) than he is to any of those guys and his production is closer to peak Tre White (it isn't quite there but it's close) than to any other corner that has been through here under this regime.

 

Now the concussions are separate to that. I think 2 concusions in 2 weeks or a recurring concussion or a hit on an unrecovered concussion or whatever it was in the AFCCG is a legit reason to be wary of committing big money to him. You gotta be totally comfortable with his health situation before you extend him. Makes me more lean to let 2025 play out and then as long as he stays healthy tag him before FA and give yourselves time to work out a long term deal.

Edited February 16 by GunnerBill

[GunnerBill]

12 hours ago, akcash said:

 I will say that there is definitely an argument to ink all 4 and you could do a lot worse. 

 

Oh you could definitely do worse. All 4 are very good players. The question is whether there is enough further improvement in them all to come to make it worth the opportunity cost of spending that money at other spots. Because as you identify at the start of your post only one of the 4 - Benford - plays a premium position. The ideal way to fill slot receiver, middle linebacker and running back are with one contract guys you draft between rounds 2 and 5 get great production out of and then recoup a pick in the comp formula when someone else pays them, or solid vets who come off other teams after their rookie deal and ideally have been slightly miscast in their roles so come at a bargain price - see Zach Baun in Philly this year

Edited February 16 by GunnerBill

[SoTier]

23 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

IMO Bernard is too small for the position(especially in the run game), and if they let him go, McD will just replace him with someone of equal size.  That being said, it would be cheaper than what Bernard will be asking for. 

 

If the Bills have a young LB already on the roster or if they draft a kid to replace him in 2025, then I have no problem with letting him leave in 2026.  Since the Bills D obviously needs improvement, I'd be against letting Bernard walk without his replacement being on the roster.  He's a good LB despite his size.

 

16 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

22.6 million for a 6th round zone corner is nuts. Let him go. He's a system guy.

 

20 million/year for a guy with 1500 yards and 7 tds in 3 years is even more nutty.

 

Let Shakir go he is just a JAG. In fact his replacement is already on the roster in Coleman. Let Coleman play fulltime at slot.

 

The 2 guys to sign are Bernard at 6.7 and Cook at around 14M.

 

Both would be realy good value and you don't let your 2nd best player on offense walk

 

Once a player proves himself to be a top level player, his draft round means nothing.  Benford is an excellent DB, and it's a premium position.  I am more concerned about his concussions.

[HamptonBillsfan]

Cook and Shakir are a given. Bernard is a good player but he’s replaceable. With the contracts of Allen, Cook, Oliver, Shakir,Milano ,and a FA edge or safety, that leaves limited resources. I thought Hollins was great on the field and in the locker room. LB, corner and receiver should be addressed in the draft.

[Beck Water]

On 2/14/2025 at 12:23 PM, msw2112 said:

 

I agree.  Running back is the easiest position to replace of the four.  Davis and Ty Johnson have played very well in their snaps an another RB could be drafted.  This isn't to say that Cook hasn't been excellent - he absolutely has been and I'd like the Bills to keep him.  I'm just saying that if the price tag is too high, he's the easiest to replace.  Sure, folks can point to Saquon Barkley as an example of difference-making RBs, but he makes less than the $15M that Cook is now "asking for" and I believe that as good as Cook is, Barkley is at the next level.  And while Barkely's excellence was huge for the Eagles, it was their defense - particularly the front-4, that ultimately won the Super Bowl for them.  If the Bills had that front-4 and Davis and Johnson at RB, they'd be just fine and then some.

 

Just want to interject that until Cook broke 1000 yds in 2023, the Bills had not had a 1000+ yd rusher since Shady McCoy in 2017 - despite using 2 3rd round, 1 2nd round, and 1 4th round pick at RB.  So it might not be that easy.

 

Now of course, one can point to confounding factors and say that 2nd half of last year and this year, we built the scheme and the OL to be more run-friendly, with 50+ more rush attempts over the season.  And there would be some truth to that.    But neither of the RBs we moved on from (Moss, Singletary) lit it up with new teams, either.

 

I'm not saying Cook should get $15M a year but I think it's possible it's a bit harder to draft a Cook-level guy than you might thing.

 

I'm personally not in favor of moving on from any of the good players on offense, because we need more playmakers there, not less.

[Mr. WEO]

Benford if he’s healthy.  Cook but for 10-12.  The other guys can walk and no one would notice 

[LabattBlue]

21 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

22.6 million for a 6th round zone corner is nuts. Let him go. He's a system guy.

 

20 million/year for a guy with 1500 yards and 7 tds in 3 years is even more nutty.

 

Let Shakir go he is just a JAG. In fact his replacement is already on the roster in Coleman. Let Coleman play fulltime at slot.

 

The 2 guys to sign are Bernard at 6.7 and Cook at around 14M.

 

Both would be realy good value and you don't let your 2nd best player on offense walk

Shakir is far from a JAG. If you think Coleman can provide the same production as Shakir, you aren’t watching that close.  
 

…and who said Shakir is getting 20 per?

Edited February 16 by LabattBlue

[stinky finger]

21 hours ago, JakeFrommStateFarm said:

22.6 million for a 6th round zone corner is nuts. Let him go. He's a system guy.

 

20 million/year for a guy with 1500 yards and 7 tds in 3 years is even more nutty.

 

Let Shakir go he is just a JAG. In fact his replacement is already on the roster in Coleman. Let Coleman play fulltime at slot.

 

The 2 guys to sign are Bernard at 6.7 and Cook at around 14M.

 

Both would be realy good value and you don't let your 2nd best player on offense walk

 

You do if said player is a RB asking for 14M. (see bolded above)

[Nephilim17]

I like Shakir a lot but if we don't keep him does the team move Coleman to the slot? I know they're different skill-sets but the reports on Coleman said he'd be ideal in the big slot role. 

[Bockeye]

26 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

Shakir is far from a JAG. If you think Coleman can provide the same production as Shakir, you aren’t watching that close.  
 

…and who said Shakir is getting 20 per?

I don’t think Coleman can replace Shakir, but hopefully he improves.  Having said that, Shakir can be replaced fairly easily - his best year 824 yds and 4 TD’s.   He should get average/may a bit above WR2 $$ and no more, if not, let him walk.  

Edited February 16 by Bockeye

[3rdand12]

On 2/14/2025 at 11:32 AM, MrEpsYtown said:

Probably none

OUCH

 

[SCBills]

Just saying — Bills paying Benford 20M+ while the Chiefs let guys like Ward and Snead walk and keep getting to Super Bowls wouldn’t be lost on me…