2025 early season forecasts

[djp14150]

in reading around I’ve seen some early nfl team forecasts

 

one article by CBS had minnesota, Washington, Pittsburgh, denver, Indianapolis as seeing their record fall

 

minnesota issue is who is the QB and how they do.  Washington was a team that gained a lot of confidence where many games came down to the final few minutes if not the final play.  It’s so true how the was- chi Hail Mary game changes season results.  Pittsburgh also has the QB issue and winningbto many close games.  Denver on the other hand went 1-6 in one score game so they could be better next year with roster improvements.  With Indy, Richardson he has played about a full season of games— can he get better?

 

what matters in change from season to season…

 

1. Roster changes— Free agency and who got drafted/ signed and player development. Do teams address their shortages.  A few young players on PS or mainly ST make a big step and be a regular player and improves the team.  Some high picked rookies take a full year to develop or you had that rookie/ 1 yr blow out their knee lost for season early.

 

2. schedule differences— From year to year teams change what 3 divisions they play. A subset of this us who you have st home vs road. Based on 2024 schedule pairs that finished 1&2 in their division…Bills/ Mia, kc/LA, rams/ sea, Phil/ was, hou/ Ind so it can matter if you have to play both on the road vs both at home in 2024 both south divisions were the weakest overall while a-west  and n-north were the best 

 

          NFC West in 2025 play both south divisions. Don’t be surprised if that division has 3 teams in the playoffs. 
playing hard teams at home and weaker teams on the road can adjust teams record by a few games than if it was reversed such as a 3-1 vs 1-3 record in the div-div play. If you do this with both divisions could swing a team from 2-6 to 6-2 in these games 

 

3. Close games— this can lead to early season confidence if you are an upstart team winning, or it can kill an early season favorite. Teams can build from this if they play well late in the season or you play close against good teams.Outliers in this have either more than half the games or if the difference between wins and loses is more than 2.  Teams range from 7-12 games that were 8 pts or less 

 

         outliers are — we heard all season about KC being 11-0. Some others of note are Philly 8-2, SF 2-6, Chicago 2-7, min 8-1, ny giants 1-9 , was 8-3. In the afc den 1-6, cin 4-7, JAX 3-8: Indy 8-4.  houston went 6-5, ATL  6-6…with Atlanta they go 9-3 they are the div winner and a respected team.

 

Chicago vs Washington 2-7 vs 8-3.  Small margin difference and chicsgo could be in the WC hunt. With a rookie QB this year, the team could make strides snd be in the playoff battle.

 

4. injuries in 2024 seriously affected team performance.

 

          San Francisco, Jacksonville, Miami, and Dallas are teams that jump out  the latter 3 had time without their starting QB. SF had other injuries.

 

5 schedule oddities ….sometimes this could kill a team early with a tough schedule or build confidence.
 

Pittsburgh had a weaker start of the season schedule where they avoid divisional play and kc and PHL until second half of the season.  Had these been spread out over the course of the season they might have been sitting around 500 for much of the season, this also might have pushed some of their early wins over den, la to later where they might not have won.

 

Every year you usually get 2-3 teams that make the playoffs that didn't the year before and on the flip side others get kicked out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Doc Brown]

You are allowed to link an article.

[JohnNord]

5 minutes ago, djp14150 said:

in reading around I’ve seen some early nfl team forecasts

 

one article by CBS had minnesota, Washington, Pittsburgh, denver, Indianapolis as seeing their record fall

 

minnesota issue is who is the QB and how they do.  Washington was a team that gained a lot of confidence where many games came down to the final few minutes if not the final play.  It’s so true how the was- chi Hail Mary game changes season results.  Pittsburgh also has the QB issue and winningbto many close games.  Denver on the other hand went 1-6 in one score game so they could be better next year with roster improvements.  With Indy, Richardson he has played about a full season of games— can he get better?

 

what matters in change from season to season…

 

1. Roster changes— Free agency and who got drafted/ signed and player development. Do teams address their shortages.  A few young players on PS or mainly ST make a big step and be a regular player and improves the team.  Some high picked rookies take a full year to develop or you had that rookie/ 1 yr blow out their knee lost for season early.

 

2. schedule differences— From year to year teams change what 3 divisions they play. A subset of this us who you have st home vs road. Based on 2024 schedule pairs that finished 1&2 in their division…Bills/ Mia, kc/LA, rams/ sea, Phil/ was, hou/ Ind so it can matter if you have to play both on the road vs both at home in 2024 both south divisions were the weakest overall while a-west  and n-north were the best 

 

          NFC West in 2025 play both south divisions. Don’t be surprised if that division has 3 teams in the playoffs. 
playing hard teams at home and weaker teams on the road can adjust teams record by a few games than if it was reversed such as a 3-1 vs 1-3 record in the div-div play. If you do this with both divisions could swing a team from 2-6 to 6-2 in these games 

 

3. Close games— this can lead to early season confidence if you are an upstart team winning, or it can kill an early season favorite. Teams can build from this if they play well late in the season or you play close against good teams.Outliers in this have either more than half the games or if the difference between wins and loses is more than 2.  Teams range from 7-12 games that were 8 pts or less 

 

         outliers are — we heard all season about KC being 11-0. Some others of note are Philly 8-2, SF 2-6, Chicago 2-7, min 8-1, ny giants 1-9 , was 8-3. In the afc den 1-6, cin 4-7, JAX 3-8: Indy 8-4.  houston went 6-5, ATL  6-6…with Atlanta they go 9-3 they are the div winner and a respected team.

 

Chicago vs Washington 2-7 vs 8-3.  Small margin difference and chicsgo could be in the WC hunt. With a rookie QB this year, the team could make strides snd be in the playoff battle.

 

4. injuries in 2024 seriously affected team performance.

 

          San Francisco, Jacksonville, Miami, and Dallas are teams that jump out  the latter 3 had time without their starting QB. SF had other injuries.

 

5 schedule oddities ….sometimes this could kill a team early with a tough schedule or build confidence.
 

Pittsburgh had a weaker start of the season schedule where they avoid divisional play and kc and PHL until second half of the season.  Had these been spread out over the course of the season they might have been sitting around 500 for much of the season, this also might have pushed some of their early wins over den, la to later where they might not have won.

 

Every year you usually get 2-3 teams that make the playoffs that didn't the year before and on the flip side others get kicked out.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Any predictions at this point in the offseason are worthless as we don’t even know what the final rosters will look like. 
 

“

[Sojourner]

I hope we are rebuilding again!

[ryguy101]

carolina Panthers! they played as playoff contenders the last 8ish games. I believe they will make the playoffs next year

[ghostwriter]

It’s way too early for this. Let me see what we do in Free Agency and the Draft first.

[julian]

2 hours ago, JohnNord said:

Any predictions at this point in the offseason are worthless as we don’t even know what the final rosters will look like. 
 

“

And even after that.. the predictions will be just slightly less worthless.

[716to540]

Temperature at kickoff is projected to be 78° with a light breeze moving from left to right on your radio dial. Slight chance of rain late in the 4th quarter.