Kurt Warner's analysis of the Super Bowl

[Mango]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I take away from this game that Mahomes isn’t as good as advertised and I hope the Bills players take that away too. He can be flustered and he can play like dog ***** until garbage time.

 

To me, this game was far different from his performance in 2020. Mahomes also sucked that game, but it was less of a personal disaster.

 

Last week, Mahomes was the #1 problem with the Chiefs offense. The Eagles helped him along but Mahomes was the Chief (get it) architect of the beat down. 

 

I am no longer in Buffalo, I am in no-mans-land in the capital region. I have heard a lot of chatter that this game changed a lot of the narrative around Mahomes being the heir apparent to Brady. 

But now that that is out there, I am sure that Mahomes will have a phenomenal 2025. 

[stevewin]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I take away from this game that Mahomes isn’t as good as advertised and I hope the Bills players take that away too. He can be flustered and he can play like dog ***** until garbage time.

 

To me, this game was far different from his performance in 2020. Mahomes also sucked that game, but it was less of a personal disaster.

 

Last week, Mahomes was the #1 problem with the Chiefs offense. The Eagles helped him along but Mahomes was the Chief (get it) architect of the beat down. 

One of the refreshing things to come from this SB is some of the ridiculous Mahomes hyperbole has cooled a bit.  For so long the acceptance that 'Mahomes is the greatest most infallable player in the universe' has been so sacrosant no talking head would dare say otherwise.  It's nice to see him being treated a little differently now.

 

I do think the Hurts admiration has gone a little over the top this week - but that's what the media loves to do is take something and then multiply it by 1000 

[Coach Tuesday]

Maybe. 

 

They also had weeks to scheme against us and had played us earlier in the season and every other season going back like 5 years.  

 

But yes, the overall takeaway from the SB is that the best way to win in today's NFL is to be able to "affect the quarterback" in the playoffs/SB.  There are different ways to do that - pressure, disguised coverages, an elite secondary - perhaps any of those things would've helped us get past the Chiefs but instead we had none of them (for many years in a row now).

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, MikePJ76 said:

Watching vonn miller spin and dip inside giving mahomes 10 yard walk in the parks either wasn't a big help.

 

So to me that's coaching. I don't believe Von was ignoring what he was coached on and was just recklessly freelancing, and if he was then it's still on coaching for letting him go back on the field. In the regular season matchup we made it a point to contain rush Mahomes and as a result had a great defensive performance, but for whatever reason we abandoned it in the 1st half of the AFCCG. In the 2nd half we again made it a point to contain rush and we immediately forced two punts. Simple coaching tweaks lead to big swings in the result.

[MiracleAtRich1393]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Kurt Warner broke down all of the Chiefs passing plays from the 1st half and I found his analysis pretty eye opening:

 

 

His analysis has nothing to do with Philly's defensive scheme or the supposed dominance of their DL (which if you watch the video was not quite as stark as it appeared at least in the 1st half). His take is that Philly's defense should have been easy to scheme against, but Reid/Nagy's concepts were poorly designed, so that combined with Mahomes just being off created a disastrous performance. When you watch it, it's uncanny how Philly's defense is almost exactly the same on every play. They didn't do anything crazy, just played with discipline and fundamentals.

 

My take watching it back is that are a couple of instant wins by the DL, but mostly what's making Mahomes antsy and uncomfortable is their contain rush. In the 1st half there is really only one instance - the INT Mahomes threw from his one endzone - where an immediate pass rush win had a major effect on the outcome of the play. But because Mahomes can't escape the pocket and FEELS pressure as a result, he starts making bad decisions and bad throws. And because his WRs aren't immediately open, it gives the pass rush time to get home. One play in particular sticks out to me near the end (at 44:44 in the video). Mahomes has time to stay in the pocket and launch a bomb to Worthy down the left sideline who gets a full step on his man 1v1. But he feels pressure before it actually gets there and runs out of the pocket to the right which kills the play.

 

So I don't come away from this tape thinking we need to radically upgrade our entire defensive roster or go all in on finding an elite pass rusher to overcome the Chiefs. You beat them by not letting their WRs win in 2 seconds or less and by keeping Mahomes in the pocket. It really is that simple. You can't expect to totally shut them down like Philly did unless Reid and Mahomes happen to have a bad day, but you certainly won't give up 30+ points if you play them like that. And on the other side of the ball you have to build an insurmountable lead while KC's offense is figuring things out.  Philly did that by getting a big WR matched up against McDuffie and throwing the ball downfield.

 

I think we're one legit secondary player and one legit defensive lineman away from being able to execute the same game plan that Philly did. Not to the same degree of success, but enough to keep them well below the season-high production they're usually getting against us.

The contain rush that we employed to great success against them in the regular season then completely abandoned to disastrous results for some reason in the playoffs 😭

[HoofHearted]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

Kurt Warner broke down all of the Chiefs passing plays from the 1st half and I found his analysis pretty eye opening:

 

 

His analysis has nothing to do with Philly's defensive scheme or the supposed dominance of their DL (which if you watch the video was not quite as stark as it appeared at least in the 1st half). His take is that Philly's defense should have been easy to scheme against, but Reid/Nagy's concepts were poorly designed, so that combined with Mahomes just being off created a disastrous performance. When you watch it, it's uncanny how Philly's defense is almost exactly the same on every play. They didn't do anything crazy, just played with discipline and fundamentals.

 

My take watching it back is that are a couple of instant wins by the DL, but mostly what's making Mahomes antsy and uncomfortable is their contain rush. In the 1st half there is really only one instance - the INT Mahomes threw from his one endzone - where an immediate pass rush win had a major effect on the outcome of the play. But because Mahomes can't escape the pocket and FEELS pressure as a result, he starts making bad decisions and bad throws. And because his WRs aren't immediately open, it gives the pass rush time to get home. One play in particular sticks out to me near the end (at 44:44 in the video). Mahomes has time to stay in the pocket and launch a bomb to Worthy down the left sideline who gets a full step on his man 1v1. But he feels pressure before it actually gets there and runs out of the pocket to the right which kills the play.

 

So I don't come away from this tape thinking we need to radically upgrade our entire defensive roster or go all in on finding an elite pass rusher to overcome the Chiefs. You beat them by not letting their WRs win in 2 seconds or less and by keeping Mahomes in the pocket. It really is that simple. You can't expect to totally shut them down like Philly did unless Reid and Mahomes happen to have a bad day, but you certainly won't give up 30+ points if you play them like that. And on the other side of the ball you have to build an insurmountable lead while KC's offense is figuring things out.  Philly did that by getting a big WR matched up against McDuffie and throwing the ball downfield.

 

I think we're one legit secondary player and one legit defensive lineman away from being able to execute the same game plan that Philly did. Not to the same degree of success, but enough to keep them well below the season-high production they're usually getting against us.

Our plan vs mobile quarterbacks clearly needs to be re-evaluated. Specifically, how are we teaching our contain rush? In all three playoff games we relied on a contain rush (more in some games than others) and for the most part it never really looked very good. Our edges were either set too wide creating open lanes inside or too far upfield to where opposing QBs could just step up and then work outside because the rush had passed them. There was no collapsing of the pockets from the edges, no high box/low box mentality, and very little push/collapsing of the interior. Instead, it looked like guys were just standing straight up and peaking at times which allowed them to get displaced and create massive run throughs.

 

I don't know if we give our ends the freedom to win inside if they feel they have the inside rush, but the amount of times we lose contain with an end going inside with no outside force rusher outside of them is mind boggling and extremely frustrating to continually watch over and over.

 

I agree, I don't think it's necessarily a Jimmy and Joe's issue (though we do lack an edge rusher who commands a double team every snap), but it's certainly an execution issue if not (and more concerning if true) a scheme issue.

Edited 4 hours ago by HoofHearted

[hondo in seattle]

Philly didn't roll out some schematically innovative defense never seen before in the annals of professional football.  They just executed their simple plan well because they have good coaches, and more importantly, good players.  

There's nothing here for McD to copy.  But hopefully Beane starts getting us championship-caliber players.  

[HappyDays]

10 minutes ago, HoofHearted said:

Our plan vs mobile quarterbacks clearly needs to be re-evaluated. Specifically, how are we teaching our contain rush? In all three playoff games we relied on a contain rush (more in some games than others) and for the most part it never really looked very good. Our edges were either set too wide creating open lanes inside or too far upfield to where opposing QBs could just step up and then work outside because the rush had passed them. There was no collapsing of the pockets from the edges, no high box/low box mentality, and very little push/collapsing of the interior. Instead, it looked like guys were just standing straight up and peaking at times which allowed them to get displaced and create massive run throughs.

 

I don't know if we give our ends the freedom to win inside if they feel they have the inside rush, but the amount of times we lose contain with an end going inside with no outside force rusher outside of them is mind boggling and extremely frustrating to continually watch over and over.

 

I agree, I don't think it's necessarily a Jimmy and Joe's issue (though we do lack an edge rusher who commands a double team every snap), but it's certainly an execution issue if not (and more concerning if true) a scheme issue.

 

Thanks. It's good to know someone like you that does this for a living is seeing the same things I'm seeing. Everyone in the Bills media sphere and fanbase is banging the table for Myles Garrett. But Rousseau is supposed to be the best contain EDGE in the game and he was no help at all in that department in the AFCCG. IMO before we can worry about personnel we need our coaches to do their job and make sure the current players are executing their responsibilities.

[Livinginthepast]

Over and over it comes back to using the right scheme and strategy with the players you have to give you a maximum shot at success. And that always comes back to McD. Its easy to win with superstars at the key positions but what Fangio did with lesser talent was a master class. Apparently McD is no Fangio and maybe we need a much more seasoned DC than a puppet on strings like Babich.

[GunnerBill]

I said in the game thread Reid was having a shocking day calling plays. It is as bad as I have ever seen him in KC. That was Philadelphia big game Andy Reid. Mahomes didn't play well either. When he feels stress his fundamentals break back down to the mess they were at Texas Tech. His feet were a shambles on Sunday. 

 

But I do give Philly credit. You don't beat Mahomes with fancy scheming. You beat him with a simple plan that is executable and really good solid fundamentals. Fangio beat him not blitzing. The last DC to do that was Leslie Frazier of the Buffalo Bills. 

 

I agree eith Happy Days that one more high level player on the D line and one more in the secondary. We could with Reid turning into playoff pumkin once against us too.... I swear it feels like he is the most afraid of Buffalo and saves his best stuff for us. 

[Low Positive]

3 minutes ago, Livinginthepast said:

Over and over it comes back to using the right scheme and strategy with the players you have to give you a maximum shot at success. And that always comes back to McD. Its easy to win with superstars at the key positions but what Fangio did with lesser talent was a master class. Apparently McD is no Fangio and maybe we need a much more seasoned DC than a puppet on strings like Babich.

But the video that is the subject of this thread is not about that. It is about the fact that the Chiefs had a lot of 💩 play calls against the cover 4 zone defense that the Eagles were running. Yes, the Eagles D played very well. But the great Andy Reid also lost the chess match badly. 

[HappyDays]

5 minutes ago, Livinginthepast said:

Over and over it comes back to using the right scheme and strategy with the players you have to give you a maximum shot at success. And that always comes back to McD. Its easy to win with superstars at the key positions but what Fangio did with lesser talent was a master class. Apparently McD is no Fangio and maybe we need a much more seasoned DC than a puppet on strings like Babich.

 

Exactly. Everyone is so focused on personnel. Of course Philly's defensive personnel is better than ours. But that doesn't fully explain the gap between 0 points given up in the 1st half vs 21 points given up in the 1st half (really should have been 24 or 28 if Mahomes doesn't randomly drop the ball). I don't believe any team's talent gap is THAT stark. The coaching was a big problem too. And not just the scheme - Philly ran as vanilla a scheme as you'll ever see. It's more about the details being passed on to the players and how they're being coached to execute their responsibilities, how they're being used to accentutate their strengths. That's where we've really fallen short.

[bmur66]

"You beat them by not letting their WRs win in 2 seconds or less and by keeping Mahomes in the pocket."

Exactly what the Bills failed to do

[BillsShredder83]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Nice post Happy,

 

My take away from what you posted is that we need to have tight coverage at the LOS to upset their pass timing, soft coverage zone has been our Achilles heel, 

 

it is my hope that our coaches can optimize our D to limit that flaw, 🤞

Is it possible we WANTED to go to this, but personnel kept us from being able to do it?  Drafting Elam was a marker towards a desire to change philosophy, but he didnt work out, this was right arounf the time Poyer / Hyde were at the end of the line, so Elam was step 1, and we woold have a chance to start getting the correct players as the old guys left? Maybe Bishop fits that mold but we werent able to change scheme yet this year, so we decided to ride it out with the players scheme they were brought in for?  Our man 2 man rates were much higher as well the last 2 years

 

Just a thought.  I have no clue if true and am only questioning lol so dont flame me

[Low Positive]

10 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Exactly. Everyone is so focused on personnel. Of course Philly's defensive personnel is better than ours. But that doesn't fully explain the gap between 0 points given up in the 1st half vs 21 points given up in the 1st half (really should have been 24 or 28 if Mahomes doesn't randomly drop the ball). I don't believe any team's talent gap is THAT stark. The coaching was a big problem too. And not just the scheme - Philly ran as vanilla a scheme as you'll ever see. It's more about the details being passed on to the players and how they're being coached to execute their responsibilities, how they're being used to accentutate their strengths. That's where we've really fallen short.

Somehow, the Eagles played their best game of the year in the Super Bowl.  They won a lot of close games against some bad teams. The Panthers had a 4th quarter lead on the Eagles in Philly by holding Hurts to 108 yards passing. The Rams almost beat them in the divisional round. They also lost to the Falcons in week 2 and got destroyed by the Bucs in week 4. I know they made some adjustment in how the secondary plays during the bye week, but they looked beatable all year until the 4th quarter of the NFC Championship Game. We all want their success to be something quantifiable so the Bills could copy the formula, but more than anything they seemed to find another gear in scoring 21 garbage-time points in the 4th quarter of the NFC Championship Game and rode that momentum into the SB. 

[Brand J]

3 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

Somehow, the Eagles played their best game of the year in the Super Bowl.  They won a lot of close games against some bad teams. The Panthers had a 4th quarter lead on the Eagles in Philly by holding Hurts to 108 yards passing. The Rams almost beat them in the divisional round. They also lost to the Falcons in week 2 and got destroyed by the Bucs in week 4. I know they made some adjustment in how the secondary plays during the bye week, but they looked beatable all year until the 4th quarter of the NFC Championship Game. We all want their success to be something quantifiable so the Bills could copy the formula, but more than anything they seemed to find another gear in scoring 21 garbage-time points in the 4th quarter of the NFC Championship Game and rode that momentum into the SB. 

I haven’t followed the Eagles at all this year, but even some of their fans were saying the narrative from the season was “could we be physical enough?” Their DL hasn’t looked that dominant all year and finished 14th in the regular season for sacks. They certainly turned it up in the playoffs and looked like a defensive juggernaut against KC, but a couple weeks earlier were thisclose to losing to the Rams at home. Basically in the SB, one team had the game of its life while the other didn’t have the goods and it showed. 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, MikePJ76 said:

Not having Benford and Rapp for the second year in a row vs the chiefs hurt the defense a lot imo.

 

Watching vonn miller spin and dip inside giving mahomes 10 yard walk in the parks either wasn't a big help.

 

The eagles had an advantage though in the superbowl that no one talks about.  they were on a neutral field and on turf in perfect weather conditions.  That is a lot different than playing in 20 degree KC in front of 80k chiefs fans making a ton of noise.  Play this game in KC and I am not sure the result is the same and if the eagles win I don't think it would be in the manner they won sunday.

Our dbs rarely play press coverage.  Von is washed and Greg did a terrible job of maintaining outside contain. Philly's front 4 is 10x more violent than our finesse version.  We need defensive upgrades and a scheme change badly.

Edited 3 hours ago by LABILLBACKER

[DabillsDaBillsDaBills]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

So to me that's coaching. I don't believe Von was ignoring what he was coached on and was just recklessly freelancing, and if he was then it's still on coaching for letting him go back on the field. In the regular season matchup we made it a point to contain rush Mahomes and as a result had a great defensive performance, but for whatever reason we abandoned it in the 1st half of the AFCCG. In the 2nd half we again made it a point to contain rush and we immediately forced two punts. Simple coaching tweaks lead to big swings in the result.

 

Honestly I wonder about this. 

 

Last season he was CLEARLY not ready to come back from that injury, yet he still started almost every game after week 5 (he was benched for the week 17 game). I don't understand what the coaches could have possibly seen from him in practice (or the actual games) to make them think he was ready to play. I think it boiled down to Von Miller saying he was ready, and our coaches ignoring what they were seeing because he's Von Miller. 

 

So yea, I think he was freelancing and playing hero ball out there against KC. He was going for moves that 27 year old Von Miller would've pulled off for a sack, but 35 year old Von Miller couldn't and instead resulted in big gains for the Chiefs. Our coaches let it happen because he's legendary soon to be HOF Von Miller. 

[Logic]

Thanks for the link and for your summary.

I guess what's frustrating to me, based on what you're saying, is that an Eagles team that plays the Chiefs far less often than we do was able to figure out the strategy you outlined: don't let the receivers win early, contain rush Mahomes all day, don't let him out of the pocket, force the receivers -- if they're going to win at all -- to win later in the route.

The thing is, many sharp fans could've told you this is the plan to beat the Chiefs as currently constructed. So why did it seem like this was NOT the plan the Bills employed this year? I don't buy lack of adequate personnel as an excuse. Sure, the Eagles' defensive personnel may be superior, but it's not SO vastly superior that the Bills couldn't try to replicate that Eagles' gameplan. So why didn't they?

The coverage was generally soft. Sure, we lacked Benford for much of the game, and sure, maybe we feared that our safeties would get beat deep. Nevertheless, it didn't seem like the Bills were trying to limit and bother the Chiefs receivers early in their routes. More egregiously, the Bills definitely did NOT prioritize contain rushing Mahomes. Rousseau broke contain MULTIPLE times in the AFCCG. It stood out on screen it was so bad.

So that's what puzzles me. How is it that Sean McDermott and Bobby Babich -- neither one a fool or a slouch -- couldn't seem to figure out that Eagles defensive gameplan and employ it, considering they face the Chiefs every single season, sometimes twice a year?

It's maddening.

[Livinginthepast]

2 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Exactly. Everyone is so focused on personnel. Of course Philly's defensive personnel is better than ours. But that doesn't fully explain the gap between 0 points given up in the 1st half vs 21 points given up in the 1st half (really should have been 24 or 28 if Mahomes doesn't randomly drop the ball). I don't believe any team's talent gap is THAT stark. The coaching was a big problem too. And not just the scheme - Philly ran as vanilla a scheme as you'll ever see. It's more about the details being passed on to the players and how they're being coached to execute their responsibilities, how they're being used to accentutate their strengths. That's where we've really fallen short.

What drove me nuts about our loss to the Chiefs was the slow adjustments. With the exception of Mahomes fumble, we weren't getting much pressure and our zone looked like a prevent defense in the first quarter.  Receivers were running 5 yards open with no press and with Bills DBs standing still like statues. To make matters worse, there seemed to be no spy on Mahomes, so whenever he did escape the pocket he ran wild.  You cannot tell me that even with middling talent that have that we couldnt do what the Eagles did or even come close.  That game was amateur hour for McD and Babich and their defense.