Kurt Warner's analysis of the Super Bowl

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Him and Andy Reid both had their worst games of the season at the worst possible time. Bad concepts, bad play calling, compounded by an antsy QB making simple mistakes.

 

 

So that's my point, we don't need to be the Eagles. We're a couple players and some coaching tweaks away from being able to execute their defensive game plan. The goal isn't to hold KC to 6 points, it's to hold them to like 24. The common fan opinion coming out of this game is that we need to spend all our resources on trying to build a dominant DL. I don't think that's right. We need to just make Mahomes a little uncomfortable by forcing him to hold the ball and stay in the pocket, and we need to have a downfield passing offense that can quickly build a lead.

Only once in 4 playoff games with KC have we ever led at halftime.  We're always having to come from behind at some point in the 2nd half.

[SectionC3]

3 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Nice post Happy,

 

My take away from what you posted is that we need to have tight coverage at the LOS to upset their pass timing, soft coverage zone has been our Achilles heel, 

 

it is my hope that our coaches can optimize our D to limit that flaw, 🤞

I basically agree.  We need to be more disruptive inside and outside.  I'd like to upgrade the pass rush.  We can probably live with running the ends back IF, and this is a very large if, we get much better play from our DTs next year.  I love the idea of a game wrecker like Garrett.  But I can live with upgrading DT and maybe a middle class upgrade at DE.    

[Big Turk]

4 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Kurt Warner broke down all of the Chiefs passing plays from the 1st half and I found his analysis pretty eye opening:

 

 

His analysis has nothing to do with Philly's defensive scheme or the supposed dominance of their DL (which if you watch the video was not quite as stark as it appeared at least in the 1st half). His take is that Philly's defense should have been easy to scheme against, but Reid/Nagy's concepts were poorly designed, so that combined with Mahomes just being off created a disastrous performance. When you watch it, it's uncanny how Philly's defense is almost exactly the same on every play. They didn't do anything crazy, just played with discipline and fundamentals.

 

My take watching it back is that there are a couple of instant wins by the DL, but mostly what's making Mahomes antsy and uncomfortable is their contain rush. In the 1st half there is really only one instance - the INT Mahomes threw from his own endzone - where an immediate pass rush win had a major effect on the outcome of the play. But because Mahomes can't escape the pocket and FEELS pressure as a result, he starts making bad decisions and bad throws. And because his WRs aren't immediately open, it gives the pass rush time to get home. One play in particular sticks out to me near the end (at 44:44 in the video). Mahomes has time to stay in the pocket and launch a bomb to Worthy down the left sideline who gets a full step on his man 1v1. But he feels pressure before it actually gets there and runs out of the pocket to the right which kills the play.

 

So I don't come away from this tape thinking we need to radically upgrade our entire defensive roster or go all in on finding an elite pass rusher to overcome the Chiefs. You beat them by not letting their WRs win in 2 seconds or less and by keeping Mahomes in the pocket. It really is that simple. You can't expect to totally shut them down like Philly did unless Reid and Mahomes happen to have a bad day, but you certainly won't give up 30+ points if you play them like that. And on the other side of the ball you have to build an insurmountable lead while KC's offense is figuring things out.  Philly did that by getting a big WR matched up against McDuffie and throwing the ball downfield.

 

I think we're one legit secondary player and one legit defensive lineman away from being able to execute the same game plan that Philly did. Not to the same degree of success, but enough to keep them well below the season-high production they're usually getting against us.

 

 

The issue is we DO this during the regular season and hold them to around 20ish points and win.  We CANNOT do this during the playoffs...why is the burning question.

[Charles Romes]

Mahomes looked like the most-hit QB in the league back there which he was. Maybe he can turn it around but he looks to me like a rapidly aging Matt Ryan or Aaron Rodgers. The impact of every hurry - even if minimal -seems magnified because he goes down so easily and he can’t escape like he used to. 

[fergie's ire]

Some people tend to hold Reid up as a coaching God and forget that he used to be generally regarded as a bad playoff coach. I remembered his poor clock management, but what I'd forgotten until this game is that he wouldn't or couldn't run the ball even in obvious situations. The Eagles had their DEs split really wide and had them charge toward mahomes. Brady would've put Anderson in against that formation and run duo all day long.

[beebe]

3 hours ago, TheFunPolice said:

IMO the issue is the Chiefs aren't used to adversity. 

 

Same thing happened in the Tampa Super Bowl. As lopsided as that game became, early on Mahomes was under tremendous pressure, but when he did make throws then guys dropped the ball or didn't make a play when there were opportunities. 

 

Suddenly instead of 1st and 10 they're punting and it snowballs. 

 

When your offense is only getting 3 plays a drive you aren't going to get anything done and the DL is going to eat. WR and TW need to make the catch when the QB gets it out but that didn't happen in either SB loss for them. 

 

In the Tampa SB you had the play where Mahomes was horizontal in mid air, throwing a perfect pass into the endzone for what should have been a TD and the WR dropped it. 

 

That's what happens when you really pressure KC. They crumble under it (IMO) because they are not accustomed to needing to battle to move the ball. 

 

The other issue is that THAT was their chance and they didn't convert. They get tight. Once the Philly game was over they all of a sudden start throwing it deep, whereas Mahomes passed up the deep throws when they were possible when it still a game. 

 

 

 

They've rallied from 10-point deficits to win three previous Super Bowls and overcame a 24-0 deficit to win a playoff game. They've rallied from 14-0 down at half in an AFC title game to force OT at 31-31. They've won despite trailing with 13 seconds left. This exact core, and this exact coaching staff. It's okay to simply get your ass beat from time to time. The better team won. 

[Aussie Joe]

What the Eagles do against them isn’t as important to me  as what the Bills do against them …every year in the playoffs…

 

At the very least ..Im hoping this latest beat down demonstrates to the Bills that they are not some unstoppable juggernaut …

 

Im actually expecting the Ravens to be the team standing in the Bills way next season …its interesting…their fans expect to be trying to get Garrett next year too…

 

 

 

 

Edited February 12 by Aussie Joe

[DapperCam]

2 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

The issue is we DO this during the regular season and hold them to around 20ish points and win.  We CANNOT do this during the playoffs...why is the burning question.

Rapp and Benford out IMO.

[wjag]

I'll drop this here.  Early in the game, Mahommes took a hard fall and his head CLEARLY bounced off the turf.  Speculation online is increasing that he was concussed.  If true, that would explain a lot.

[MJS]

29 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

Rapp and Benford out IMO.

Yeah, that is huge. The safeties were already average at best, so became a real weakness with one of the starters out. And losing our best player on defense in Benford was a tremendous blow, especially since the game plan was to mix it up and play a lot more man coverage. Going from an elite corner to a shaky, inexperienced bust in Elam was really impactful negatively.

 

[MJS]

8 minutes ago, wjag said:

I'll drop this here.  Early in the game, Mahommes took a hard fall and his head CLEARLY bounced off the turf.  Speculation online is increasing that he was concussed.  If true, that would explain a lot.

That happens so often in the NFL and almost always is nothing. Occasionally, a guy will get a concussion from that, true, but Mahomes didn't appear to have any symptoms.

[ganesh]

16 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Kurt Warner broke down all of the Chiefs passing plays from the 1st half and I found his analysis pretty eye opening:

 

 

His analysis has nothing to do with Philly's defensive scheme or the supposed dominance of their DL (which if you watch the video was not quite as stark as it appeared at least in the 1st half). His take is that Philly's defense should have been easy to scheme against, but Reid/Nagy's concepts were poorly designed, so that combined with Mahomes just being off created a disastrous performance. When you watch it, it's uncanny how Philly's defense is almost exactly the same on every play. They didn't do anything crazy, just played with discipline and fundamentals.

 

My take watching it back is that there are a couple of instant wins by the DL, but mostly what's making Mahomes antsy and uncomfortable is their contain rush. In the 1st half there is really only one instance - the INT Mahomes threw from his own endzone - where an immediate pass rush win had a major effect on the outcome of the play. But because Mahomes can't escape the pocket and FEELS pressure as a result, he starts making bad decisions and bad throws. And because his WRs aren't immediately open, it gives the pass rush time to get home. One play in particular sticks out to me near the end (at 44:44 in the video). Mahomes has time to stay in the pocket and launch a bomb to Worthy down the left sideline who gets a full step on his man 1v1. But he feels pressure before it actually gets there and runs out of the pocket to the right which kills the play.

 

So I don't come away from this tape thinking we need to radically upgrade our entire defensive roster or go all in on finding an elite pass rusher to overcome the Chiefs. You beat them by not letting their WRs win in 2 seconds or less and by keeping Mahomes in the pocket. It really is that simple. You can't expect to totally shut them down like Philly did unless Reid and Mahomes happen to have a bad day, but you certainly won't give up 30+ points if you play them like that. And on the other side of the ball you have to build an insurmountable lead while KC's offense is figuring things out.  Philly did that by getting a big WR matched up against McDuffie and throwing the ball downfield.

 

I think we're one legit secondary player and one legit defensive lineman away from being able to execute the same game plan that Philly did. Not to the same degree of success, but enough to keep them well below the season-high production they're usually getting against us.

 

This is quoting some of the things that the Eagles defensively did and minimizes them....those exact things are what made it difficult for Mahomes and flustered him

[philholbroo]

The Eagles came out to win, the Bills played/schemed to not lose. It seems like late in the game they revert to calling plays that will not lead to them losing (both offensive and defensive). Just go out there and win. Get a good lead early and dont let up.

[Mike R]

17 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

Nice post Happy,

 

My take away from what you posted is that we need to have tight coverage at the LOS to upset their pass timing, soft coverage zone has been our Achilles heel, 

 

it is my hope that our coaches can optimize our D to limit that flaw, 🤞

You nailed it. The loose coverage off the LOS is what allows Mahomes and other good qb’s to complete quick easy passes and negates the pass rush. It’s maddening to watch the Bills third and long plays on defense.

[Thurman#1]

18 hours ago, DapperCam said:

KC’s offense was middle of the pack all season. You don’t need an elite defense to contain it. You just need a not terrible defense. A bar we could not clear.

 

 

Through most of the season KC's offense wasn't nearly as good as they used to be. Until they absolutely needed to score. Then they did score at a very high rate.

 

No, they aren't as good as they used to be. They were 10th. That's not middle-of-the-pack.

 

Philly pressured them constantly, but Mahomes also just plain had a bad day. In Warner's video you see the first pass of the day and he's not under any pressure but he throws it a bit behind Kelce who can't corral it. How often does that happen?

 

 

Edited February 13 by Thurman#1

[WIDE LEFT]

What Warner and the OP are actually stating is that the current D scheme employed by the Bills just doesn’t cut it when get into playoffs v hi quality QBs. It’s a solid D scheme, produces enough during regular season, but in the end, it has a low ceiling. Andy Reid recognized this when he fired McD - he saw the limitations. Similar to when he jettisoned a good QB with a low ceiling, Alex Smith, for Mahomes

[Don Otreply]

3 hours ago, Mike R said:

You nailed it. The loose coverage off the LOS is what allows Mahomes and other good qb’s to complete quick easy passes and negates the pass rush. It’s maddening to watch the Bills third and long plays on defense.

It is frustrating as hell that they can’t get off the field on third and long, it’s almost a guaranteed first down, 

[streetkings01]

21 hours ago, DapperCam said:

KC’s offense was middle of the pack all season. You don’t need an elite defense to contain it. You just need a not terrible defense. A bar we could not clear.

This! I pointed out after the AFCC that 29 points should’ve been more than enough to beat this version of the Chiefs! They’ve scored 29 or more points only 3 times all season.

14 hours ago, wjag said:

I'll drop this here.  Early in the game, Mahommes took a hard fall and his head CLEARLY bounced off the turf.  Speculation online is increasing that he was concussed.  If true, that would explain a lot.

Nah…..he just sucked!

[finn]

On 2/12/2025 at 11:24 AM, DapperCam said:

KC’s offense was middle of the pack all season. You don’t need an elite defense to contain it. You just need a not terrible defense. A bar we could not clear.

Not pressuring the quarterback, not jamming the receivers, and not covering them is a recipe for disaster, and that was the 2024 Bills defense in a nutshell. Even with deficient offensive tackles, Mahomes (and Stafford et al) had time to pat the ball, bounce a few times, and wait for his receivers to come off their free release and into their routes. 

 

Far from building a defense to stop Kansas City, McBeane have created a dream defense for Mahomes to play against. If I'm KC, I'm terrified of Allen and deeply relieved that the Bills defense is so, so bad. 

[Sierra Foothills]

On 2/12/2025 at 8:41 AM, HappyDays said:

That's my point, we don't need to be the Eagles. We're a couple players and some coaching tweaks away from being able to execute their defensive game plan. The goal isn't to hold KC to 6 points, it's to hold them to like 24. The common fan opinion coming out of this game is that we need to spend all our resources on trying to build a dominant DL. I don't think that's right. We need to just make Mahomes a little uncomfortable by forcing him to hold the ball and stay in the pocket, and we need to have a downfield passing offense that can quickly build a lead.

 

Agreed. The margin of victory in most of the KC games has been slim. As others have said, the loss of Rapp and Benford might have made all the difference in the world. Yes the Bills have to improve on defense but they don't have to be a dominant defense.

 

On 2/12/2025 at 9:30 AM, stevewin said:

One of the refreshing things to come from this SB is some of the ridiculous Mahomes hyperbole has cooled a bit.  For so long the acceptance that 'Mahomes is the greatest most infallable player in the universe' has been so sacrosant no talking head would dare say otherwise.  It's nice to see him being treated a little differently now.

 

Agree completely. Still a great player but the praise for Mahomes was over the top and now we're seeing evidence of decline.

 

On 2/12/2025 at 9:30 AM, stevewin said:

I do think the Hurts admiration has gone a little over the top this week - but that's what the media loves to do is take something and then multiply it by 1000 

 

I agree with this but even though Josh's MVP Award was maybe an overcorrection for previous season's lack of respect, I would still say that Josh doesn't get the acclaim and praise that he deserves. JMO.

 

 

On 2/12/2025 at 9:37 AM, Coach Tuesday said:

But yes, the overall takeaway from the SB is that the best way to win in today's NFL is to be able to "affect the quarterback" in the playoffs/SB.  There are different ways to do that - pressure, disguised coverages, an elite secondary - perhaps any of those things would've helped us get past the Chiefs but instead we had none of them (for many years in a row now).

 

To the bolded, this has always been the case in the modern era of the NFL, and not just in the playoffs. It's actually the stated reason the Bills acquired Von Miller.

 

On 2/12/2025 at 8:11 AM, MikePJ76 said:

Watching vonn miller spin and dip inside giving mahomes 10 yard walk in the parks either wasn't a big help.

 

On 2/12/2025 at 11:01 AM, LABILLBACKER said:

Von is washed and Greg did a terrible job of maintaining outside contain.

 

On 2/12/2025 at 11:15 AM, DabillsDaBillsDaBills said:

So yea, I think he was freelancing and playing hero ball out there against KC. He was going for moves that 27 year old Von Miller would've pulled off for a sack, but 35 year old Von Miller couldn't and instead resulted in big gains for the Chiefs. Our coaches let it happen because he's legendary soon to be HOF Von Miller. 

 

To the above 3 posts, I think the criticism of Von Miller is off base.

 

I've spent very little time here since the AFCCG but I've seen very little criticism of Greg Rousseau. IMO Rousseau was terrible. There were at least 5 and more likely 6 plays sprinkled through all 4 quarters where he egregiously lost containment of Mahomes and allowed the Chiefs to convert. It was one of the worst failures of being assignment-sound I can recall seeing from a DE. On another play he was just skated down the field by Kelce, giving half-hearted resistance. I question Rousseau's drive and toughness to be great.

 

When Von was brought in by the Bills it was clearly stated that it was because they needed to put more pressure on Mahomes.

 

Von only played 16 snaps... by far the least of our Edge players (Rousseau played 51 snaps, Epenesa 46, and Smoot 20). Von could have easily redeemed the organization's faith in him with a single timely sack but incredibly, by gluing him to the bench, McDermott/Babich didn't give Von a real opportunity to make that one play which would have justified his entire 3 year Bills career.

 

Edited February 14 by Sierra Foothills