Kurt Warner's analysis of the Super Bowl

[HappyDays]

Kurt Warner broke down all of the Chiefs passing plays from the 1st half and I found his analysis pretty eye opening:

 

 

His analysis has nothing to do with Philly's defensive scheme or the supposed dominance of their DL (which if you watch the video was not quite as stark as it appeared at least in the 1st half). His take is that Philly's defense should have been easy to scheme against, but Reid/Nagy's concepts were poorly designed, so that combined with Mahomes just being off created a disastrous performance. When you watch it, it's uncanny how Philly's defense is almost exactly the same on every play. They didn't do anything crazy, just played with discipline and fundamentals.

 

My take watching it back is that there are a couple of instant wins by the DL, but mostly what's making Mahomes antsy and uncomfortable is their contain rush. In the 1st half there is really only one instance - the INT Mahomes threw from his own endzone - where an immediate pass rush win had a major effect on the outcome of the play. But because Mahomes can't escape the pocket and FEELS pressure as a result, he starts making bad decisions and bad throws. And because his WRs aren't immediately open, it gives the pass rush time to get home. One play in particular sticks out to me near the end (at 44:44 in the video). Mahomes has time to stay in the pocket and launch a bomb to Worthy down the left sideline who gets a full step on his man 1v1. But he feels pressure before it actually gets there and runs out of the pocket to the right which kills the play.

 

So I don't come away from this tape thinking we need to radically upgrade our entire defensive roster or go all in on finding an elite pass rusher to overcome the Chiefs. You beat them by not letting their WRs win in 2 seconds or less and by keeping Mahomes in the pocket. It really is that simple. You can't expect to totally shut them down like Philly did unless Reid and Mahomes happen to have a bad day, but you certainly won't give up 30+ points if you play them like that. And on the other side of the ball you have to build an insurmountable lead while KC's offense is figuring things out.  Philly did that by getting a big WR matched up against McDuffie and throwing the ball downfield.

 

I think we're one legit secondary player and one legit defensive lineman away from being able to execute the same game plan that Philly did. Not to the same degree of success, but enough to keep them well below the season-high production they're usually getting against us.

 

Edited 1 hour ago by HappyDays

[FireChans]

5 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Kurt Warner broke down all of the Chiefs passing plays from the 1st half and I found his analysis pretty eye opening:

 

 

His analysis has nothing to do with Philly's defensive scheme or the supposed dominance of their DL (which if you watch the video was not quite as stark as it appeared at least in the 1st half). His take is that Philly's defense should have been easy to scheme against, but Reid/Nagy's concepts were poorly designed, so that combined with Mahomes just being off created a disastrous performance. When you watch it, it's uncanny how Philly's defense is almost exactly the same on every play. They didn't do anything crazy, just played with discipline and fundamentals.

 

My take watching it back is that are a couple of instant wins by the DL, but mostly what's making Mahomes antsy and uncomfortable is their contain rush. In the 1st half there is really only one instance - the INT Mahomes threw from his one endzone - where an immediate pass rush win had a major effect on the outcome of the play. But because Mahomes can't escape the pocket and FEELS pressure as a result, he starts making bad decisions and bad throws. And because his WRs aren't immediately open, it gives the pass rush time to get home. One play in particular sticks out to me near the end (at 44:44 in the video). Mahomes has time to stay in the pocket and launch a bomb to Worthy down the left sideline who gets a full step on his man 1v1. But he feels pressure before it actually gets there and runs out of the pocket to the right which kills the play.

 

So I don't come away from this tape thinking we need to radically upgrade our entire defensive roster or go all in on finding an elite pass rusher to overcome the Chiefs. You beat them by not letting their WRs win in 2 seconds or less and by keeping Mahomes in the pocket. It really is that simple. You can't expect to totally shut them down like Philly did unless Reid and Mahomes happen to have a bad day, but you certainly won't give up 30+ points if you play them like that. And on the other side of the ball you have to build an insurmountable lead while KC's offense is figuring things out.  Philly did that by getting a big WR matched up against McDuffie and throwing the ball downfield.

 

I think we're one legit secondary player and one legit defensive lineman away from being able to execute the same game plan that Philly did. Not to the same degree of success, but enough to keep them well below the season-high production they're usually getting against us.

I take away from this game that Mahomes isn’t as good as advertised and I hope the Bills players take that away too. He can be flustered and he can play like dog ***** until garbage time.

 

To me, this game was far different from his performance in 2020. Mahomes also sucked that game, but it was less of a personal disaster.

 

Last week, Mahomes was the #1 problem with the Chiefs offense. The Eagles helped him along but Mahomes was the Chief (get it) architect of the beat down. 

Edited 3 hours ago by FireChans

[Goin Breakdown]

I can't keep thinking about how the Bills need to be the Eagles. I remember whenever a team would beat NE and Tom Brady, the league would all say "That's how you do it" and that never really panned out the way we all hoped. Chiefs got beat by a great team. 
When it come a to the Bills, yes they need some more talent and yes they need to rethink some of their philosophy. But being a part of the copycat/ always a step behind model probably isn't going to cut it. 

[JP51]

1 minute ago, Goin Breakdown said:

I can't keep thinking about how the Bills need to be the Eagles. I remember whenever a team would beat NE and Tom Brady, the league would all say "That's how you do it" and that never really panned out the way we all hoped. Chiefs got beat by a great team. 
When it come a to the Bills, yes they need some more talent and yes they need to rethink some of their philosophy. But being a part of the copycat/ always a step behind model probably isn't going to cut it. 

I agree... we need to be better... but we need to be the Bills and not Eagles... fast following in the NFL is like chasing your tail.... moreover, I think their defensive coaches had a great game plan... now... if you want to be like the Eagles and hire great defensive coaches that know how to actually game plan and not just make adjustments at half time... I am all for it...  but we need to improve our players on Defense not just copy the Philly model... 

[Miyagi-Do Karate]

6 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

I can't keep thinking about how the Bills need to be the Eagles. I remember whenever a team would beat NE and Tom Brady, the league would all say "That's how you do it" and that never really panned out the way we all hoped. Chiefs got beat by a great team. 
When it come a to the Bills, yes they need some more talent and yes they need to rethink some of their philosophy. But being a part of the copycat/ always a step behind model probably isn't going to cut it. 

great post, and you are right.

 

To me, it’s just about execution. We mostly have the players. Got to make a few more plays here and there when it matters.

 

if we convert on 4th and 5, we probably win the SB. (If Andrews doesn’t drop the 2-pointer against us, ravens may have won the SB).

[Goin Breakdown]

5 minutes ago, JP51 said:

I agree... we need to be better... but we need to be the Bills and not Eagles... fast following in the NFL is like chasing your tail.... moreover, I think their defensive coaches had a great game plan... now... if you want to be like the Eagles and hire great defensive coaches that know how to actually game plan and not just make adjustments at half time... I am all for it...  but we need to improve our players on Defense not just copy the Philly model... 

I do agree on the Defensive Coach idea. I'm not sure I'm sold on what's going on. I actually feel in "some" ways we are missing Frazier.  Stats have really dropped since he left as per a post I was reading yesterday. 

2 minutes ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said:

great post, and you are right.

 

To me, it’s just about execution. We mostly have the players. Got to make a few more plays here and there when it matters.

 

if we convert on 4th and 5, we probably win the SB. (If Andrews doesn’t drop the 2-pointer against us, ravens may have won the SB).

Absolutely. Got to take advantage of mistakes made by the opponent and seize the moment when we have the chance. We've miss a few and it cost us BUT we are right there. That's the part that stings the most in the playoffs. 

[JP51]

1 minute ago, Goin Breakdown said:

I do agree on the Defensive Coach idea. I'm not sure I'm sold on what's going on. I actually feel in "some" ways we are missing Frazier.  Stats have really dropped since he left as per a post I was reading yesterday. 

Yeah, I dont know... I half wonder if they are just running McD's Defense for him... it looks very similar and hasnt been effective in years... is it the players? The stale D, the coaching... maybe a combination of all 3...  I like the fact we brought in another Defensive mind... if he is looking to put together a change with how we approach Defense...  

[Goin Breakdown]

Just now, JP51 said:

Yeah, I dont know... I half wonder if they are just running McD's Defense for him... it looks very similar and hasnt been effective in years... is it the players? The stale D, the coaching... maybe a combination of all 3...  I like the fact we brought in another Defensive mind... if he is looking to put together a change with how we approach Defense...  

yep. There seems to be hints that some changes are going to be made. I'm hopeful about that. 

[Don Otreply]

Nice post Happy,

 

My take away from what you posted is that we need to have tight coverage at the LOS to upset their pass timing, soft coverage zone has been our Achilles heel, 

 

it is my hope that our coaches can optimize our D to limit that flaw, 🤞

[MikePJ76]

Not having Benford and Rapp for the second year in a row vs the chiefs hurt the defense a lot imo.

 

Watching vonn miller spin and dip inside giving mahomes 10 yard walk in the parks either wasn't a big help.

 

The eagles had an advantage though in the superbowl that no one talks about.  they were on a neutral field and on turf in perfect weather conditions.  That is a lot different than playing in 20 degree KC in front of 80k chiefs fans making a ton of noise.  Play this game in KC and I am not sure the result is the same and if the eagles win I don't think it would be in the manner they won sunday.

[JP51]

8 minutes ago, MikePJ76 said:

Not having Benford and Rapp for the second year in a row vs the chiefs hurt the defense a lot imo.

 

Watching vonn miller spin and dip inside giving mahomes 10 yard walk in the parks either wasn't a big help.

 

The eagles had an advantage though in the superbowl that no one talks about.  they were on a neutral field and on turf in perfect weather conditions.  That is a lot different than playing in 20 degree KC in front of 80k chiefs fans making a ton of noise.  Play this game in KC and I am not sure the result is the same and if the eagles win I don't think it would be in the manner they won sunday.

Great observation about Miller.... he often did not contain and took himself out of the play... waaaaay wide... I wondered if he wouldnt have been more effective Blitzing with out contain responsibility. I think the point is moot, he is gone next year I would guess... 

[DapperCam]

38 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Kurt Warner broke down all of the Chiefs passing plays from the 1st half and I found his analysis pretty eye opening:

 

 

His analysis has nothing to do with Philly's defensive scheme or the supposed dominance of their DL (which if you watch the video was not quite as stark as it appeared at least in the 1st half). His take is that Philly's defense should have been easy to scheme against, but Reid/Nagy's concepts were poorly designed, so that combined with Mahomes just being off created a disastrous performance. When you watch it, it's uncanny how Philly's defense is almost exactly the same on every play. They didn't do anything crazy, just played with discipline and fundamentals.

 

My take watching it back is that are a couple of instant wins by the DL, but mostly what's making Mahomes antsy and uncomfortable is their contain rush. In the 1st half there is really only one instance - the INT Mahomes threw from his one endzone - where an immediate pass rush win had a major effect on the outcome of the play. But because Mahomes can't escape the pocket and FEELS pressure as a result, he starts making bad decisions and bad throws. And because his WRs aren't immediately open, it gives the pass rush time to get home. One play in particular sticks out to me near the end (at 44:44 in the video). Mahomes has time to stay in the pocket and launch a bomb to Worthy down the left sideline who gets a full step on his man 1v1. But he feels pressure before it actually gets there and runs out of the pocket to the right which kills the play.

 

So I don't come away from this tape thinking we need to radically upgrade our entire defensive roster or go all in on finding an elite pass rusher to overcome the Chiefs. You beat them by not letting their WRs win in 2 seconds or less and by keeping Mahomes in the pocket. It really is that simple. You can't expect to totally shut them down like Philly did unless Reid and Mahomes happen to have a bad day, but you certainly won't give up 30+ points if you play them like that. And on the other side of the ball you have to build an insurmountable lead while KC's offense is figuring things out.  Philly did that by getting a big WR matched up against McDuffie and throwing the ball downfield.

 

I think we're one legit secondary player and one legit defensive lineman away from being able to execute the same game plan that Philly did. Not to the same degree of success, but enough to keep them well below the season-high production they're usually getting against us.

KC’s offense was middle of the pack all season. You don’t need an elite defense to contain it. You just need a not terrible defense. A bar we could not clear.

[Fan in Chicago]

38 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Kurt Warner broke down all of the Chiefs passing plays from the 1st half and I found his analysis pretty eye opening:

 

 

His analysis has nothing to do with Philly's defensive scheme or the supposed dominance of their DL (which if you watch the video was not quite as stark as it appeared at least in the 1st half). His take is that Philly's defense should have been easy to scheme against, but Reid/Nagy's concepts were poorly designed, so that combined with Mahomes just being off created a disastrous performance. When you watch it, it's uncanny how Philly's defense is almost exactly the same on every play. They didn't do anything crazy, just played with discipline and fundamentals.

 

I think we're one legit secondary player and one legit defensive lineman away from being able to execute the same game plan that Philly did. Not to the same degree of success, but enough to keep them well below the season-high production they're usually getting against us.

Good share and write-up. I do disagree on the final para though. I think we need two DBs - a safety and a CB. Rapp is too much of a run-hard-into-a-wall-and hurt myself type of player. Dude doesnt have the instincts to make a play without negative self consequences. As for other defensive players, one DE and one LB is needed. 

[Motorin']

31 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

I can't keep thinking about how the Bills need to be the Eagles. 

 

The Eagles basically drafted the entire Georgia national championship Dline... I guess we could draft Ohio States while Dline this draft?

[Charles Romes]

We let their receivers win all game in less than 2 seconds. Free releases all game so the chiefs targets could either curl under the cushion for 8 yards or run pick plays.  

[Sojourner]

2 minutes ago, Motorin' said:

 

The Eagles basically drafted the entire Georgia national championship Dline... I guess we could draft Ohio States while Dline this draft?

Big Ten Bills!

[DapperCam]

Just now, Charles Romes said:

We let their receivers win all game in less than 2 seconds. Free releases all game so the chiefs targets could either curl under the cushion for 8 yards or run pick plays.  

Too afraid to get beat deep with our weak safeties. We saw them get burned deep several times this year.

[HappyDays]

50 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Last week, Mahomes was the #1 problem with the Chiefs offense. The Eagles helped him along but Mahomes was the Chief (get it) architect of the beat down. 

 

Him and Andy Reid both had their worst games of the season at the worst possible time. Bad concepts, bad play calling, compounded by an antsy QB making simple mistakes.

 

46 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

I can't keep thinking about how the Bills need to be the Eagles.

 

So that's my point, we don't need to be the Eagles. We're a couple players and some coaching tweaks away from being able to execute their defensive game plan. The goal isn't to hold KC to 6 points, it's to hold them to like 24. The common fan opinion coming out of this game is that we need to spend all our resources on trying to build a dominant DL. I don't think that's right. We need to just make Mahomes a little uncomfortable by forcing him to hold the ball and stay in the pocket, and we need to have a downfield passing offense that can quickly build a lead.

[TheFunPolice]

IMO the issue is the Chiefs aren't used to adversity. 

 

Same thing happened in the Tampa Super Bowl. As lopsided as that game became, early on Mahomes was under tremendous pressure, but when he did make throws then guys dropped the ball or didn't make a play when there were opportunities. 

 

Suddenly instead of 1st and 10 they're punting and it snowballs. 

 

When your offense is only getting 3 plays a drive you aren't going to get anything done and the DL is going to eat. WR and TW need to make the catch when the QB gets it out but that didn't happen in either SB loss for them. 

 

In the Tampa SB you had the play where Mahomes was horizontal in mid air, throwing a perfect pass into the endzone for what should have been a TD and the WR dropped it. 

 

That's what happens when you really pressure KC. They crumble under it (IMO) because they are not accustomed to needing to battle to move the ball. 

 

The other issue is that THAT was their chance and they didn't convert. They get tight. Once the Philly game was over they all of a sudden start throwing it deep, whereas Mahomes passed up the deep throws when they were possible when it still a game. 

 

 

Edited 1 hour ago by TheFunPolice

[Brand J]

11 minutes ago, TheFunPolice said:

IMO the issue is the Chiefs aren't used to adversity. 

 

Same thing happened in the Tampa Super Bowl. As lopsided as that game became, early on Mahomes was under tremendous pressure, but when he did make throws then guys dropped the ball or didn't make a play when there were opportunities. 

 

Suddenly instead of 1st and 10 they're punting and it snowballs. 

 

When your offense is only getting 3 plays a drive you aren't going to get anything done and the DL is going to eat. WR and TW need to make the catch when the QB gets it out but that didn't happen in either SB loss for them. 

 

In the Tampa SB you had the play where Mahomes was horizontal in mid air, throwing a perfect pass into the endzone for what should have been a TD and the WR dropped it. 

 

That's what happens when you really pressure KC. They crumble under it (IMO) because they are not accustomed to needing to battle to move the ball. 

 

The other issue is that THAT was their chance and they didn't convert. They get tight. Once the Philly game was over they all of a sudden start throwing it deep, whereas Mahomes passed up the deep throws when they were possible when it still a game. 

 

 

I’d say they’re definitely used to adversity. The comeback against the Texans when they trailed 24-0? The SB comebacks against the 9ers (twice) and Eagles when they trailed by 10? Mahomes and his number of game winning drives, in addition to his record when trailing by 10+? They know how to battle and win tough, gritty games, but on that night they just didn’t have it. They looked lackadaisical from the start, definitely not the team that arrived fired up to beat the Bills. It was almost as though they were waiting on someone (Mahomes?) to make a play to jump start them and that play never came. If they ran the game back on another day, I highly doubt the result is the same, regardless of how things looked that particular Sunday.

Edited 1 hour ago by Brand J