James Cook on IG Live - "15 mill year" EDIT: Scrubbed his IG and Doubled Down on Twitter

[SoonerBillsFan]

28 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Not if they say they will hold out.   Then his value to the Bills and his trade value, decrease significantly.  That could be their threat.  By holding out for most of the season  Cook can still be valued mostly by his nice 2024 stats- with the slight extrapolation of showing the improvement (wouldn't have the expected plateau of all of 2025).  

 

This could get ugly.  If you don't think Cook's stats in 2025 will increase (which I don't with the same people back) then a logical move by the Cook team is to not play in Buffalo (or at least not until week 11).  Cook would want to go to a team that will use him as a bell cow back so his stats in 2025 once again increase. 

That is why if I am beane I am working the phones now.  We can't have another diva distraction. 

[Einstein's Dog]

5 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I just don't see Cook holding out during the season.  He sure can't hold out the entire year.  He only has 3 years accrued.

Rookies on their 4th year don't hold out.  It's guys on 5th year options and tagged players that do.

 

I don't see a trade either.  He will play this year and either sign what Beane is offering for next year or move on in free agency.

Those are the agreed upon rules.

 

Rookies in their 4th year may not have held out before but there looks like a logical reason to do it.  Cook could wait until week 11 to show up.

 

Agreed upon rules?  No, it's the contracts and money that are driving this show.

[FireChans]

17 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I just don't see Cook holding out during the season.  He sure can't hold out the entire year.  He only has 3 years accrued.

Rookies on their 4th year don't hold out.  It's guys on 5th year options and tagged players that do.

 

I don't see a trade either.  He will play this year and either sign what Beane is offering for next year or move on in free agency.

Those are the agreed upon rules.

 

His own brother was a second round pick who threatened to hold out going into his 4th season until he got a massive contract extension.

[ColoradoBills]

Just now, Einstein's Dog said:

Rookies in their 4th year may not have held out before but there looks like a logical reason to do it.  Cook could wait until week 11 to show up.

 

Agreed upon rules?  No, it's the contracts and money that are driving this show.

Of course, he "could".  I just don't see how it helps his career going forward.  He only has made $4M so far and has $5.3M to make 

this year.  Why throw away $3M of that to only end up in FA next year?

Some teams will not like the fact he "held out" in the first place, if anything it negatively affects his FA.

 

IMO, it's a foolish move and his agent should let him know that.  If he does it anyway, well Bills move on and maybe get a comp pick.

[Einstein's Dog]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

His own brother was a second round pick who threatened to hold out going into his 4th season until he got a massive contract extension.

As an aside, based on your comment earlier in the thread and realizing this hold out is a real possibility, I have reduced my trade value.  Before I couldn't see moving him unless it was a second but now I won't blame Beane for trading for less - this could get ugly and Beane may want to bail.  This is unfortunate, just when you're in a position to get good value this happens.

[FireChans]

38 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Not if they say they will hold out.   Then his value to the Bills and his trade value, decrease significantly.  That could be their threat.  By holding out for most of the season  Cook can still be valued mostly by his nice 2024 stats- with the slight extrapolation of showing the improvement (wouldn't have the expected plateau of all of 2025).  

 

This could get ugly.  If you don't think Cook's stats in 2025 will increase (which I don't with the same people back) then a logical move by the Cook team is to not play in Buffalo (or at least not until week 11).  Cook would want to go to a team that will use him as a bell cow back so his stats in 2025 once again increase. 

No team is trading for Cook without agreeing on a contract in principle so I don’t think his value changes all that much with a hold out. 
 

These guys don’t care that much about their usage outside of getting paid. James would be happy to touch the ball 150 times a year if he was getting $15M AAV 

[Einstein's Dog]

3 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

Of course, he "could".  I just don't see how it helps his career going forward.  He only has made $4M so far and has $5.3M to make 

this year.  Why throw away $3M of that to only end up in FA next year?

Some teams will not like the fact he "held out" in the first place, if anything it negatively affects his FA.

 

IMO, it's a foolish move and his agent should let him know that.  If he does it anyway, well Bills move on and maybe get a comp pick.

IMO, it's his agent and brother who are advising him to hold out.  By "throwing away" $3M, Cook may get a $12M/yr multi-year contract in 2026 - with a nice chunk of guaranteed money.  By playing on his $5M contract he risks getting hurt and not getting this big payday.

[BuffaloBillyG]

To all talking about a "hold out". He won't be doing that. The thing they do now is the "hold in".

 

He will show up and attend meetings. But not participate in team activities, practice or anything that would put him potentially at risk to injury. That's the new thing. By doing this he would avoid fines and accrue his time as normal. 

 

The drawback is often after a hold in the player has to catch up physically to the team and never really seems ready to play. Just to my eye I see guys who do this suffer from soft tissue injury during the season and rendering them pretty useless for that season. 

[Einstein's Dog]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

No team is trading for Cook without agreeing on a contract in principle so I don’t think his value changes all that much with a hold out. 
 

These guys don’t care that much about their usage outside of getting paid. James would be happy to touch the ball 150 times a year if he was getting $15M AAV 

Why wouldn't a team trade for Cook, as long as Cook agrees he will play, the acquiring team would get Cook for a year at a great $5M rate.  We took A Cooper as a rental.  The acquiring team would get a motivated Cook who wants to work all 3 downs for the year for a big FA payday in 2026.

 

Players care about their usage because it is directly tied to their pay.  Diggs saw "everyone eats" coming and wanted out.  If J Cook sees another 2 to 3 man RB split the same type of analysis says - "get out now".   Cook hinders his big payday if he doesn't continue improving his stats.

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Why wouldn't a team trade for Cook, as long as Cook agrees he will play, the acquiring team would get Cook for a year at a great $5M rate.  We took A Cooper as a rental.  The acquiring team would get a motivated Cook who wants to work all 3 downs for the year for a big FA payday in 2026.

 

Players care about their usage because it is directly tied to their pay.  Diggs saw "everyone eats" coming and wanted out.  If J Cook sees another 2 to 3 man RB split the same type of analysis says - "get out now".   Cook hinders his big payday if he doesn't continue improving his stats.

If Cook isn’t going to agree to play without a new contract in Buffalo, why would he agree to play without a new contract in Carolina?

 

Cook has had a great 2023 and 2024. He’s entering the final year of his deal. He would be holding out to get paid on that production, not waiting to “improve his stats.”

 

If I’m Cook’s agent trying to actually maximize his dollar earnings, I tell him to threaten to hold out or even go as far to request to explore trade/extension possibilities. 
 

The #1 goal of Cook and his agent is not to play year 4 with just his rookie deal. He gets hurt, his future earnings cut in half. He has a down year, his future earnings are cut in half. It’s almost all risk for little reward at this point. 

40 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

As an aside, based on your comment earlier in the thread and realizing this hold out is a real possibility, I have reduced my trade value.  Before I couldn't see moving him unless it was a second but now I won't blame Beane for trading for less - this could get ugly and Beane may want to bail.  This is unfortunate, just when you're in a position to get good value this happens.

I think you take a third and run over paying him $15M or going through a hold-out/contract dispute. 
 

I realize that makes the Bills worse in 2025. It’s not ideal as a scenario and I really like Cook, but I think that’s the play. 

[ColoradoBills]

24 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

IMO, it's his agent and brother who are advising him to hold out.  By "throwing away" $3M, Cook may get a $12M/yr multi-year contract in 2026 - with a nice chunk of guaranteed money.  By playing on his $5M contract he risks getting hurt and not getting this big payday.

 

That is only if Beane blinks.  I get the feeling Brandon Beane shoots straight with the agents.  They have the Bills offer.  The ball is in

their court.  If he holds out or in, he still has to play games to accrue a season.  He could get hurt then too.

 

8 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Why wouldn't a team trade for Cook, as long as Cook agrees he will play, the acquiring team would get Cook for a year at a great $5M rate.  We took A Cooper as a rental.  The acquiring team would get a motivated Cook who wants to work all 3 downs for the year for a big FA payday in 2026.

 

Players care about their usage because it is directly tied to their pay.  Diggs saw "everyone eats" coming and wanted out.  If J Cook sees another 2 to 3 man RB split the same type of analysis says - "get out now".   Cook hinders his big payday if he doesn't continue improving his stats.

 

Couldn't he get hurt playing for $5M.  Why wouldn't he just stay if Buffalo?  Go to FA next spring.

The stats thing in my mind doesn't affect his future earnings.  

 

I see all of your and other's points.  I just think it's a lot to assume from a couple of media posts.

IF Cook is serious, he should demand Beane pay him or trade him and make it public like all the others did this year.

Then teams would be deciding IF a trade makes sense.  If he waits until after the draft any RB needing team already have drafted

in a heavy RB year.  It doesn't make sense to me but then again, these guys often don't.

 

Bottom line is, I don't see James Cook holding all the cards over Brandon Beane.

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

IF Cook is serious, he should demand Beane pay him or trade him and make it public like all the others did this year.

I think that’s a difficult genie to put back in the bottle.

 

Once you make public trade demands, it gets ugly. 
 

I don’t think that Cook is operating in bad faith at all. He wants to get paid. He should. 
 

I see no evidence that negotiations are going less than well. 
 

The problem and the part that GM Brandon Beane is paid to predict, is what does the story look like 5 months from now? 
 

Is it Cook demanding a trade in August and holding out? I don’t know what Beane thinks is a reasonable deal. So maybe he is or maybe they are close to an extension already?

We just don’t know.

 

I would say that it wouldn’t surprise me if Cook is re-signed before September. It also wouldn’t surprise me if Cook is tweeting and holding out and skipping team activities and even missing the first game.

 

Remember, future HoF and multiple SB champ Chris Jones held out week 1 just 2 years ago.

 

These guys exert whatever leverage they have as they should. IMO. 

[Doc Brown]

2 hours ago, Magox said:

 

I think what makes this even more impressive is that James Cook was not the option for the Bills to score a TD from within a yard.  Meaning his TD's were pretty much exclusively from 2 yards out +

I read that and came to the opposite conclusion in that he got more touches near the goal line compared to the the year before.  I remember him running over that Chief and thinking if he didn't put muscle on during the off-season he wouldn't have scored that TD.  Same thing in the playoff game on that 4th and goal.  Not sure what the data is on that though.

[Doc Brown]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

To all talking about a "hold out". He won't be doing that. The thing they do now is the "hold in".

 

He will show up and attend meetings. But not participate in team activities, practice or anything that would put him potentially at risk to injury. That's the new thing. By doing this he would avoid fines and accrue his time as normal. 

 

The drawback is often after a hold in the player has to catch up physically to the team and never really seems ready to play. Just to my eye I see guys who do this suffer from soft tissue injury during the season and rendering them pretty useless for that season. 

Keeps him fresher too.  Beane signing free agents with PED suspensions and daring players to sit out might be the drastic thing he thinks is needed to win the Super Bowl.  No more Mr. Nice guy.

[Doc Brown]

59 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Why wouldn't a team trade for Cook, as long as Cook agrees he will play, the acquiring team would get Cook for a year at a great $5M rate.  We took A Cooper as a rental.  The acquiring team would get a motivated Cook who wants to work all 3 downs for the year for a big FA payday in 2026.

 

Players care about their usage because it is directly tied to their pay.  Diggs saw "everyone eats" coming and wanted out.  If J Cook sees another 2 to 3 man RB split the same type of analysis says - "get out now".   Cook hinders his big payday if he doesn't continue improving his stats.

It would take a team with a really good offensive line without any talent at RB and be okay with dealing with his limitations as a pass blocker.  Cooper played at a premium position so if it worked out it would completely justify giving up a 3rd.  It didn't.  If there's some team with a great offensive line looking for a running back on a one year rental than you'd pry be able to get a 4th or a 5th for him.  

[Einstein's Dog]

53 minutes ago, FireChans said:

If Cook isn’t going to agree to play without a new contract in Buffalo, why would he agree to play without a new contract in Carolina?

 

Cook has had a great 2023 and 2024. He’s entering the final year of his deal. He would be holding out to get paid on that production, not waiting to “improve his stats.”

 

If I’m Cook’s agent trying to actually maximize his dollar earnings, I tell him to threaten to hold out or even go as far to request to explore trade/extension possibilities. 
 

The #1 goal of Cook and his agent is not to play year 4 with just his rookie deal. He gets hurt, his future earnings cut in half. He has a down year, his future earnings are cut in half. It’s almost all risk for little reward at this point. 

I think you take a third and run over paying him $15M or going through a hold-out/contract dispute. 
 

I realize that makes the Bills worse in 2025. It’s not ideal as a scenario and I really like Cook, but I think that’s the play. 

I disagree that he is trying to get paid for the production he has done.   Cook's production in '24 was like J Mixon or D Henry - $8M dollar RBs.  Cook wants almost double that.  IMO Cook is basing his worth on continued improvement - that's only way $15M would come close to making sense.

 

If Cook goes through 2025 and has the same production as 2024 why would a team then pay him more than an inflation adjusted Mixon or D Henry?  And I don't think Cook will improve substantially in Buffalo in 2025.

 

I agree with your point about taking the 3rd now.  This situation looks like a problem in the making.

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, Einstein's Dog said:

Cook's production in '24 was like J Mixon or D Henry - $8M dollar RBs.  Cook wants almost double that.  IMO Cook is basing his worth on continued improvement - that's only way $15M would come close to making sense.

Sure but he’s not 1000 years old like they are.

 

He doesn’t need to talk a team into $14-15M AAV is my point. Hes getting that if he hits market tomorrow imo which makes 2025 irrelevant and only able to hurt him.
 

put another way, if Beane was shopping Cook for like a 4th today, and Cook said he wasn’t going to play without $15M AAV and at least 3 years, do we think he lasts long in Buffalo or is some team like NE or the Titans jumping on that immediately, and giving Cook exactly what he wants? I strongly think the latter, and I think Cook and his agent do too which is why we are in this mess. 

Because the bottom line is 2025 is more likely to hurt his value than help it. He gets a hammy and rushes for 850 and 4 TD’s he may come crawling back for 2 years $8M with incentives.

striking while the iron is hot is a thing. 

[babulator]

I wish the Jets or the Patriots could just make the "right" offer already... geez. 😉

[BarleyNY]

On 3/13/2025 at 10:48 AM, Logic said:

Fair enough. 

But whatever the reasons for Cook not ever having shown workhorse ability, the fact remains that we don't know if he can do it, because he never HAS done it. That may very well be the fault of coaching, but still.

The entire sample size of his playing career, from his Bills days back through his days at Georgia, show that he's never been a three-down, workhorse running back. Now that CAN be fine IF you're an excellent pass-catching 3rd down back. But Cook isn't the Bills 3rd down back, either, which likely owes largely to his inadequacies in pass blocking.

So to me, if you haven't demonstrated workhouse ability, haven't demonstrated major pass catching or pass blocking ability, and aren't the 3rd down back on your team, why am I giving you a big second contract?

Just my opinion. I realize I'm in the minority here.

 

Earlier in this thread I talked about this and broke it down. Cook had significantly more snaps, carries and receptions in 2023 than he did in 2024. He looked like he wore down at the end of the ‘23 season and it really showed in the playoffs. It seems the Bills thought the same and reduced his snap count in ‘24 - and it paid off. It looks like that level of workload is where he’s at his best. 

Edited Monday at 09:13 PM by BarleyNY

[ColoradoBills]

4 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

It would take a team with a really good offensive line without any talent at RB and be okay with dealing with his limitations as a pass blocker.  Cooper played at a premium position so if it worked out it would completely justify giving up a 3rd.  It didn't.  If there's some team with a great offensive line looking for a running back on a one year rental than you'd pry be able to get a 4th or a 5th for him.  

 

Which would be his worth as a comp pick if he leaves next year in FA.